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GEOFF BENNETT: And for more
insight on what the revolt means
for Russia's war in Ukraine,

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we turn to Samuel Bendett, a
Russian military analyst for
the Center for Naval Analyses.

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Thank you for being with us.

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Samuel, what lies ahead for the
Wagner Group? Because Yevgeny
Prigozhin has said that his

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fighters will never accept
the options that Vladimir
Putin put to them today,

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which is fight for Russia,
go home or go to Belarus.

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SAMUEL BENDETT, Center for
Naval Analyses: Well, I
think that's a good question.

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This is something that a lot
of us are trying to figure
out. And these questions

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are probably going to
reverberate for the
next several weeks, if
not months. Clearly,

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Wagner is not
dismantled. Clearly,
it's still a functioning
organization. Clearly,

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there are officers in
the Wagner Group that
are still with Prigozhin.

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And, clearly, Wagner is still
a useful force internationally,
especially in Africa,

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when it comes to many
of Russia's geopolitical
interests. So it isn't
as simple as simply

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dismantling Wagner. There's a
lot of money invested. There's
a lot of effort invested.

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There's a lot of
discussions in the Russian
government today whether or

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not private military
companies like Wagner should

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even be allowed following
what happened this weekend.
But Prigozhin probably has

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his own allies in the Kremlin.
And so the fight over its
fate, it will continue.

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GEOFF BENNETT: Well, on
that point, how much does
Putin need the Wagner
Group to fight his war?

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SAMUEL BENDETT: It
depends at this point.

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Clearly, Wagner was a good
attacking force around Bakhmut,
good in the sense that they

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could keep Ukrainian forces
occupied in that particular
city. But, right now,

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Russia is fighting a
defensive war. It doesn't
need Wagner forces to

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storm Ukrainian positions the
way they have done in Bakhmut.

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And so this is a question
that it's up to the
Ministry of Defense,

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it's up to the Kremlin,
and it's up to Prigozhin's
allies and foes,

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as they are now discussing how
the country is going to move
forward after this 72 hours.

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GEOFF BENNETT: Is Ukraine
well-positioned to take

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advantage of this moment?
Might this be a decisive turn
in their counteroffensive?

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SAMUEL BENDETT: Anything
is possible, but a lot of
Russians were concerned

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that Ukraine will take
advantage of what is happening
in Russia this weekend.

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However, no significant
Ukrainian breakthrough
has materialized in the
last 72 hours against

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the Russian positions.
Even though Ukrainians have
advanced somewhat against
the Russian positions,

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there was no massive
breakthrough that probably a
lot of people were hoping for.

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So it's not exactly clear
what will happen to the
advance going forward. But,

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right now, Russians
seem to be holding firm,

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even if they're losing some
of the territory to the
attacking Ukrainian formations.

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GEOFF BENNETT: From your
vantage point, what might
this revolt mean for morale
among Russian troops,

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many of whom are conscripts and
were conscripted into service
unwillingly, reluctantly?

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SAMUEL BENDETT: The morale
can't be good, especially
when the president officially

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pardons the Wagnerites, who
have shut down Russian military
aircraft and killed the pilots.

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Probably there's a lot
of bad feelings right now
and there's a lot of anger

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and resentment at Wagner
across the military, and
especially within the

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MOD. There was bad blood between
Wagner and military before
this uprising, or mutiny,

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whatever it is going to be
called, but the bad feelings
are probably going to persist.

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And so it's not exactly
clear how much the military
will welcome Wagner,

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even as the president welcomes
Wagner soldiers into its
ranks, although Prigozhin,

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in his audio message this
morning, indicated that very
few Wagnerites are going to join

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the military. So, again, a lot
of questions and really not
a lot of answers right now.

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GEOFF BENNETT: And,
lastly, Samuel in the 20
seconds or so we have left,

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what does the undermining of
Vladimir Putin's authority
mean for him as the

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leader of Russia's military?
What's that do to his standing?

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SAMUEL BENDETT: Well, certainly,
the events of the weekend --
of the past week undermine his

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standing. They were bad
optics for him in general.
Certainly, he seemed weak.

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And, certainly, there are
issues within the government
and the government's response to

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this crises that have
to be considered. But we
shouldn't necessarily rush to

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judgment and we shouldn't
write Putin off quite yet.
He can survive certain

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crises. And he's probably
going to try and survive
this one as well.

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And, again, all roads lead
to Putin at this point.
And he is still the chief

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decision-maker and the one
who is the arbiter of a

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lot of disputes and
decisions in the government.
So, we will have to see.

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GEOFF BENNETT: Samuel
Bendett with the Center
for Naval Analyses, thanks
so much for being with us.

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SAMUEL BENDETT: Thank you.