1 00:00:01,933 --> 00:00:04,000 GEOFF BENNETT: And for more insight on what the revolt means for Russia's war in Ukraine, 2 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:08,800 we turn to Samuel Bendett, a Russian military analyst for the Center for Naval Analyses. 3 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,833 Thank you for being with us. 4 00:00:10,833 --> 00:00:14,766 Samuel, what lies ahead for the Wagner Group? Because Yevgeny Prigozhin has said that his 5 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,666 fighters will never accept the options that Vladimir Putin put to them today, 6 00:00:19,666 --> 00:00:22,833 which is fight for Russia, go home or go to Belarus. 7 00:00:22,833 --> 00:00:25,200 SAMUEL BENDETT, Center for Naval Analyses: Well, I think that's a good question. 8 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:29,033 This is something that a lot of us are trying to figure out. And these questions 9 00:00:29,033 --> 00:00:33,500 are probably going to reverberate for the next several weeks, if not months. Clearly, 10 00:00:33,500 --> 00:00:38,466 Wagner is not dismantled. Clearly, it's still a functioning organization. Clearly, 11 00:00:38,466 --> 00:00:43,266 there are officers in the Wagner Group that are still with Prigozhin. 12 00:00:43,266 --> 00:00:47,733 And, clearly, Wagner is still a useful force internationally, especially in Africa, 13 00:00:47,733 --> 00:00:52,700 when it comes to many of Russia's geopolitical interests. So it isn't as simple as simply 14 00:00:54,733 --> 00:00:56,666 dismantling Wagner. There's a lot of money invested. There's a lot of effort invested. 15 00:00:56,666 --> 00:00:59,533 There's a lot of discussions in the Russian government today whether or 16 00:00:59,533 --> 00:01:02,033 not private military companies like Wagner should 17 00:01:02,033 --> 00:01:06,033 even be allowed following what happened this weekend. But Prigozhin probably has 18 00:01:06,033 --> 00:01:10,233 his own allies in the Kremlin. And so the fight over its fate, it will continue. 19 00:01:10,233 --> 00:01:15,233 GEOFF BENNETT: Well, on that point, how much does Putin need the Wagner Group to fight his war? 20 00:01:16,366 --> 00:01:18,466 SAMUEL BENDETT: It depends at this point. 21 00:01:20,366 --> 00:01:24,000 Clearly, Wagner was a good attacking force around Bakhmut, good in the sense that they 22 00:01:25,966 --> 00:01:28,900 could keep Ukrainian forces occupied in that particular city. But, right now, 23 00:01:28,900 --> 00:01:32,433 Russia is fighting a defensive war. It doesn't need Wagner forces to 24 00:01:32,433 --> 00:01:35,633 storm Ukrainian positions the way they have done in Bakhmut. 25 00:01:35,633 --> 00:01:39,633 And so this is a question that it's up to the Ministry of Defense, 26 00:01:39,633 --> 00:01:44,633 it's up to the Kremlin, and it's up to Prigozhin's allies and foes, 27 00:01:46,666 --> 00:01:49,866 as they are now discussing how the country is going to move forward after this 72 hours. 28 00:01:51,333 --> 00:01:53,366 GEOFF BENNETT: Is Ukraine well-positioned to take 29 00:01:53,366 --> 00:01:58,033 advantage of this moment? Might this be a decisive turn in their counteroffensive? 30 00:01:58,033 --> 00:02:02,266 SAMUEL BENDETT: Anything is possible, but a lot of Russians were concerned 31 00:02:02,266 --> 00:02:06,400 that Ukraine will take advantage of what is happening in Russia this weekend. 32 00:02:08,466 --> 00:02:12,333 However, no significant Ukrainian breakthrough has materialized in the last 72 hours against 33 00:02:12,333 --> 00:02:17,333 the Russian positions. Even though Ukrainians have advanced somewhat against the Russian positions, 34 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:22,433 there was no massive breakthrough that probably a lot of people were hoping for. 35 00:02:22,433 --> 00:02:27,433 So it's not exactly clear what will happen to the advance going forward. But, 36 00:02:28,566 --> 00:02:30,833 right now, Russians seem to be holding firm, 37 00:02:30,833 --> 00:02:34,633 even if they're losing some of the territory to the attacking Ukrainian formations. 38 00:02:34,633 --> 00:02:39,633 GEOFF BENNETT: From your vantage point, what might this revolt mean for morale among Russian troops, 39 00:02:41,566 --> 00:02:45,733 many of whom are conscripts and were conscripted into service unwillingly, reluctantly? 40 00:02:47,700 --> 00:02:50,933 SAMUEL BENDETT: The morale can't be good, especially when the president officially 41 00:02:52,966 --> 00:02:56,233 pardons the Wagnerites, who have shut down Russian military aircraft and killed the pilots. 42 00:02:58,266 --> 00:03:02,400 Probably there's a lot of bad feelings right now and there's a lot of anger 43 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:06,000 and resentment at Wagner across the military, and especially within the 44 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:11,000 MOD. There was bad blood between Wagner and military before this uprising, or mutiny, 45 00:03:12,966 --> 00:03:16,200 whatever it is going to be called, but the bad feelings are probably going to persist. 46 00:03:18,066 --> 00:03:21,600 And so it's not exactly clear how much the military will welcome Wagner, 47 00:03:23,500 --> 00:03:27,200 even as the president welcomes Wagner soldiers into its ranks, although Prigozhin, 48 00:03:29,100 --> 00:03:32,633 in his audio message this morning, indicated that very few Wagnerites are going to join 49 00:03:34,633 --> 00:03:37,633 the military. So, again, a lot of questions and really not a lot of answers right now. 50 00:03:37,633 --> 00:03:40,833 GEOFF BENNETT: And, lastly, Samuel in the 20 seconds or so we have left, 51 00:03:42,733 --> 00:03:45,933 what does the undermining of Vladimir Putin's authority mean for him as the 52 00:03:45,933 --> 00:03:48,400 leader of Russia's military? What's that do to his standing? 53 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:53,400 SAMUEL BENDETT: Well, certainly, the events of the weekend -- of the past week undermine his 54 00:03:55,466 --> 00:03:58,666 standing. They were bad optics for him in general. Certainly, he seemed weak. 55 00:04:00,633 --> 00:04:02,533 And, certainly, there are issues within the government and the government's response to 56 00:04:02,533 --> 00:04:06,100 this crises that have to be considered. But we shouldn't necessarily rush to 57 00:04:06,100 --> 00:04:11,100 judgment and we shouldn't write Putin off quite yet. He can survive certain 58 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,100 crises. And he's probably going to try and survive this one as well. 59 00:04:15,100 --> 00:04:19,966 And, again, all roads lead to Putin at this point. And he is still the chief 60 00:04:19,966 --> 00:04:23,800 decision-maker and the one who is the arbiter of a 61 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:27,400 lot of disputes and decisions in the government. So, we will have to see. 62 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:31,900 GEOFF BENNETT: Samuel Bendett with the Center for Naval Analyses, thanks so much for being with us. 63 00:04:31,900 --> 00:04:33,466 SAMUEL BENDETT: Thank you.