AMNA NAWAZ: Now we turn back to
the controversy surrounding the
confirmation of Supreme Court

nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

And to the analysis of
Shields and Ponnuru.

That is syndicated columnist
Mark Shields and Ramesh
Ponnuru of The National Review.

David Brooks is away.

Gentlemen, welcome.

Let's jump right in.

The biggest story of the week,
obviously, here in Washington,
Judge Kavanaugh, right?

We're having this conversation
at the unfortunate intersection
of high-stakes politics and how

we handle sexual
violence in America.

Ramesh, the Republicans
are in charge here, though,
kind of running the show.

How are they handling it?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well,
I would say that things
took a marked turn for
the worse when President

Trump decided that he was
tired of being responsible
and sober-minded,
which must have chafed,

and instead decided to attack
Dr. or Professor Blasey Ford,
saying that, if this was a real

thing, she should have
come forward decades
ago, which anybody who's
familiar with these

cases understands is not
the way these things work.

So I think that's a real
black mark on the Republicans.

And I know a lot of Republicans,
including Senator Collins,
were really smarting over

that remark and wanting to
distance themselves from it.

On the other hand, you look
at the Democrats, and they
haven't been covering themselves

in glory either.

Senator Feinstein's handling
of the allegation, sitting on
it for two months, essentially,

was almost inexplicable.

And you have got various
Senate Democrats who
are pre-judging the
case, saying that

they -- as Senate
Republicans, some are, too
- - saying that they already
believe the allegations

without having heard anything.

AMNA NAWAZ: Mark, what
do you make of all this?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, let
me agree with Ramesh,
especially on President Trump.

If you're a Republican in 2018,
and on the eve of an election
that is increasingly looking

pessimistic, by numbers and
outlook, for the Republicans,
the last thing you want to be

talking about is women and
sexual abuse and recalling of
the Anita Hill hearings, and

having as your spokesman a man
who has been 19 times accused
of sexual abuse or sexual

harassment, the president of
the United States, Donald Trump.

It's not a message you want,
and it's not a messenger.

This is more than
about Brett Kavanaugh.

This hearing that's
coming up is essentially
about David against
Goliath, against -- we're

going to hear from Professor
Ford for the first time.

And that will determine
how the country responds.

But between -- before then, I
think the one indicator that has
hit me is polls that suggests

that women are more upset about
the charges and the response
of the Republicans than any

other group.

And you will recall, in the
2016 election, Donald Trump
carried women who had not been

to college by a 61 to
34 margin, decisively.

Hillary Clinton carried
a majority of women who
had gone to college.

If women in -- the
non-college-educated
women are responding to
this charge and the sense

that something is wrong and that
-- that this is a society that
is indifferent and intolerant

of women and the abuse they have
suffered, this is nothing but
bad news for the Republicans.

It's not where they want to be.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, how
do they handle this?

Part of this is
about optics, right?

I mean, and we're talking there
could be a hearing next week.

We don't know where this stands.

You have got three men who could
be questioning Dr. Ford who
were there back in 1991, right,

questioning Anita Hill, and
didn't handle it well back then.

How do they move forward?

How did they have the hearing
that everyone says they're
going to be moving towards to

some degree and not alienate
this group that Mark
was just talking about?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well, I think
one thing we all have to
remember is, the optics actually

have to take a
backseat to the facts.

And it's going to be very
hard to determine the facts.

But the senators need to go
in and be seen to be going in,
yes, but mostly to actually

go in, trying to
determine the facts.

We have got sworn statements
now from Judge Kavanaugh, from
Mark Judge, from an unnamed

third party.

We will presumably get a third
-- get a sworn statement from
the accuser as well, Professor

Blasey Ford.

And then we're going to have
to actually try to do what we
can to figure out who's telling

the truth.

AMNA NAWAZ: Do you think that
the way they have presented it
so far enforces that message

that we take this seriously,
we have an intention to
get to the bottom of this?

You're hearing some folks, like
Mitch McConnell earlier today,
we heard him in the show saying,

Judge Kavanaugh is
going to be confirmed.

RAMESH PONNURU: Right.

So I think it's one thing to
say that, based on the evidence
that you have heard so far,

you are inclined to go
with one or the other.

But I think it's a real mistake
to close your mind to the
possibility that you're going

to get new information.

If that's the case, then you
do have to ask, why are we
having any hearings at all?

AMNA NAWAZ: I want to
bring up a poll too.

We have got some numbers
to look at, Mark, and
get your take on these.

MARK SHIELDS: Yes.

Sure.

AMNA NAWAZ: This shows publicly,
look, there has been an
actual increase in opposition

to Judge Kavanaugh over the
last month, up nine points.

At some point, does he
become a political liability?

MARK SHIELDS: I'm not sure
he's a political liability.

I think that the subject
is a political liability
for Republicans.

And, obviously, if he's
stayed with and sullied
with it, yes, he becomes
a political liability.

I think the hearing
is -- Ramesh is right.

The Republicans and the
Democrats have basically
taken their position,
put on their uniforms,

or at least the partisans have.

The group that has yet to
make a decision on this
will look at the hearings.

And the hearings
will be determinate.

And it really isn't about
Judge Kavanaugh as much as
it's about Professor Ford.

I mean, is she believable?

Is she sympathetic?

Is she convincing?

And the president saying, why
didn't she come forward, why
didn't she go the FBI when she

was 15 years old, first of all,
it's not a - - it's not a --
I'm not sure that we're talking

about a federal offense.

But, secondly, I mean,
if anything we have
learned, through the
pain and torment of the

Catholic clergy sexual abuse,
is that people, out of pain,
embarrassment, humiliation, a

sense of fear,
don't come forward.

I mean, the Department
of Justice own numbers
say that 22 percent of
rape victims ever come

forward.

And so that -- but, really,
it is David against Goliath.

And the focus is on her.

The question, is she believable?

Is she convincing?

I wasn't sure that Mark Judge
had signed a sworn statement.

RAMESH PONNURU: He
made a statement to the
Judiciary Committee.

So, that is a potentially
legally actionable
document that is...

MARK SHIELDS: OK, because he
showed no willingness to...

RAMESH PONNURU: He
doesn't -- but he doesn't
want -- yes, right.

MARK SHIELDS: He wrote a book
on the subject, but he didn't
want to -- he doesn't want to

talk about it.

RAMESH PONNURU: He doesn't
want to talk about it anymore.

AMNA NAWAZ: This is the other
individual that Dr. Ford says
was there in the room that day.

(CROSSTALK)

MARK SHIELDS: And his not
testifying, seems to me,
absolutely irrational.

(CROSSTALK)

AMNA NAWAZ: Go
ahead, Ramesh, yes.

MARK SHIELDS: Sure.

(CROSSTALK)

RAMESH PONNURU: One of the
things that's most dismaying
about this entire debate is that

almost everybody's views about
what did or didn't happen 36
years ago lines up perfectly

with what they think ought
to happen to Roe v. Wade now.

And that's not the
way it ought to be.

AMNA NAWAZ: You're saying it's
too political now for anyone
to have a real discussion about

it.

But it is an important
discussion, one we're
going to continue to have.

I want to move on to
another story that moved
very quickly this week.

MARK SHIELDS: OK.

AMNA NAWAZ: On Monday, President
Trump announced he's going to
be declassifying a trove of

documents and text messages
related to the Russia probe.

Today, he backtracked, right?

He tweeted a couple of
tweets, basically punting
to the Department of
Justice, say they're

going to review before
we take any action here.

Ramesh, what happened
over the last week?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well,
there was a lot of pushback
against the idea of
declassification, particularly

the idea of a kind of
thorough and unselective
and undiscriminate --
indiscriminate declassification.

But, look, the president has
a dysfunctional relationship
with his Justice Department.

We know that.

We have known that
for some time.

And I think this is just one
more instance of that happening,
and another instance of

his making a grand statement,
and then not following through.

AMNA NAWAZ: Mark,
what is your take?

MARK SHIELDS: We're
reviewing publicly the
education or limited
education of Donald Trump.

I mean, he learned this week
from allies, from very important
sources within his -- the

United States government who
he has to trust that this is
bad -- bad policy, that what

you're doing is, you're not
simply revealing secrets.

You're compromising sources, and
that collection of intelligence
is dependent upon a network

of relationships, of trust,
of belief, of confidence that
you're not going to be made

public.

And allies just -- among others,
just told Donald Trump, this
is just an absolute reckless

risk.

And sources within his own
administration, important
figures, stood up on this.

And I think that's --
that that's what happened.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, President
Trump is going to loom large
over the midterms, right, just

a few weeks away right now.

MARK SHIELDS: He is.

AMNA NAWAZ: Things have
shifted dramatically
over the last few weeks.

Where are we now?

What's it looking
like for Republicans?

MARK SHIELDS: I think -- I
think it's the - - it's bleaker
for Republicans than it was

a week ago.

And this is in spite of the
fact that the stock market is
an all-time high, that, among

other factors, the lowest number
of people in America applied
for unemployment benefits

in any year since 1968, when
the economy was one-half
its size and number of jobs.

But Donald Trump is toxic.

He -- American voters
do not like him.

When asked a very simple
question, I like blank and agree
with most of his policies,

I would like and don't agree
with the policy, I dislike blank
and agree with policies, dislike

him and agree with his policies,
70 percent of Americans say
they do not like Donald Trump.

I contrast this with
Ronald Reagan, who
had far worse economic
conditions in 1982, when

the prime interest rate was at
21.5 percent, unemployment was
the highest since the Great

Depression.

And Ronald Reagan, 70 percent
of Americans liked him.

And that is what
they're finding.

This is a referendum,
the midterm election is a
referendum on the president,
on his performance,

but on the man himself.

And that's why Reagan kept
Republican losses low that year.

And that's why Trump
is really a problem for
Republicans this year.

They have to defend
him or alienate him.

And three-quarters of
the Republican candidates
who are running for
reelection have never

run with a Republican
in the White House.

They have always run against
Barack Obama, all right?

Three-quarters were
elected since Barack Obama.

And that's a liberating thing.

It's very defensive when
you're trying to defend what
Donald Trump did, for example,

on tweets.

AMNA NAWAZ: Ramesh,
very quickly, less
than a minute left.

Is it as bad as he
says for Republicans?

RAMESH PONNURU: Look, midterm
elections usually go badly for
the party that has the White

House, because the
opposition is revved up and
your side is complacent.

Trump's making both of
those problems worse.

He's revved up the opposition
and he's telling his side,
this is all propaganda.

The elections are
going swimmingly.

Don't worry about it.

The combination is one
that is very damaging.

And if they abandon --
if they allow Kavanaugh
to go down to defeat with
uncorroborated allegations,

the demoralization
could get worse.

AMNA NAWAZ: So is this the
choice, as Mark said, alienate
him or support him, say you're

with him?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well, if I
were a Republican running for
office, what I would want to do

is talk about the economic
conditions, talk about
other kinds of -- talk
about controversies

that play to you, and
try to keep Trump out
of the conversation as
much as possible, because

you face that constant
problem, which, he's still
an unpopular president.

AMNA NAWAZ: Ramesh Ponnuru, Mark
Shields, good to talk to you.

MARK SHIELDS: Thank you, Amna.