1 00:00:02,066 --> 00:00:04,400 AMNA NAWAZ: Now we turn back to the controversy surrounding the confirmation of Supreme Court 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:06,233 nominee Brett Kavanaugh. 3 00:00:06,233 --> 00:00:08,733 And to the analysis of Shields and Ponnuru. 4 00:00:08,733 --> 00:00:13,066 That is syndicated columnist Mark Shields and Ramesh Ponnuru of The National Review. 5 00:00:13,066 --> 00:00:14,666 David Brooks is away. 6 00:00:14,666 --> 00:00:15,800 Gentlemen, welcome. 7 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:17,833 Let's jump right in. 8 00:00:17,833 --> 00:00:21,200 The biggest story of the week, obviously, here in Washington, Judge Kavanaugh, right? 9 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:25,666 We're having this conversation at the unfortunate intersection of high-stakes politics and how 10 00:00:25,666 --> 00:00:27,966 we handle sexual violence in America. 11 00:00:27,966 --> 00:00:31,666 Ramesh, the Republicans are in charge here, though, kind of running the show. 12 00:00:31,666 --> 00:00:33,833 How are they handling it? 13 00:00:33,833 --> 00:00:37,400 RAMESH PONNURU: Well, I would say that things took a marked turn for the worse when President 14 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:42,366 Trump decided that he was tired of being responsible and sober-minded, which must have chafed, 15 00:00:45,033 --> 00:00:50,000 and instead decided to attack Dr. or Professor Blasey Ford, saying that, if this was a real 16 00:00:52,333 --> 00:00:56,833 thing, she should have come forward decades ago, which anybody who's familiar with these 17 00:00:56,833 --> 00:01:00,933 cases understands is not the way these things work. 18 00:01:00,933 --> 00:01:02,866 So I think that's a real black mark on the Republicans. 19 00:01:02,866 --> 00:01:06,900 And I know a lot of Republicans, including Senator Collins, were really smarting over 20 00:01:06,900 --> 00:01:09,600 that remark and wanting to distance themselves from it. 21 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:14,266 On the other hand, you look at the Democrats, and they haven't been covering themselves 22 00:01:14,266 --> 00:01:16,300 in glory either. 23 00:01:16,300 --> 00:01:20,333 Senator Feinstein's handling of the allegation, sitting on it for two months, essentially, 24 00:01:21,066 --> 00:01:23,066 was almost inexplicable. 25 00:01:23,066 --> 00:01:26,633 And you have got various Senate Democrats who are pre-judging the case, saying that 26 00:01:26,633 --> 00:01:31,633 they -- as Senate Republicans, some are, too - - saying that they already believe the allegations 27 00:01:32,500 --> 00:01:33,733 without having heard anything. 28 00:01:33,733 --> 00:01:35,633 AMNA NAWAZ: Mark, what do you make of all this? 29 00:01:35,633 --> 00:01:39,000 MARK SHIELDS: Well, let me agree with Ramesh, especially on President Trump. 30 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,600 If you're a Republican in 2018, and on the eve of an election that is increasingly looking 31 00:01:46,666 --> 00:01:50,933 pessimistic, by numbers and outlook, for the Republicans, the last thing you want to be 32 00:01:52,933 --> 00:01:56,600 talking about is women and sexual abuse and recalling of the Anita Hill hearings, and 33 00:01:58,666 --> 00:02:03,633 having as your spokesman a man who has been 19 times accused of sexual abuse or sexual 34 00:02:06,766 --> 00:02:10,100 harassment, the president of the United States, Donald Trump. 35 00:02:10,100 --> 00:02:12,766 It's not a message you want, and it's not a messenger. 36 00:02:12,766 --> 00:02:16,533 This is more than about Brett Kavanaugh. 37 00:02:16,533 --> 00:02:21,533 This hearing that's coming up is essentially about David against Goliath, against -- we're 38 00:02:23,133 --> 00:02:27,033 going to hear from Professor Ford for the first time. 39 00:02:27,033 --> 00:02:30,200 And that will determine how the country responds. 40 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:35,200 But between -- before then, I think the one indicator that has hit me is polls that suggests 41 00:02:37,366 --> 00:02:42,366 that women are more upset about the charges and the response of the Republicans than any 42 00:02:43,500 --> 00:02:45,566 other group. 43 00:02:45,566 --> 00:02:49,633 And you will recall, in the 2016 election, Donald Trump carried women who had not been 44 00:02:50,866 --> 00:02:54,833 to college by a 61 to 34 margin, decisively. 45 00:02:54,833 --> 00:02:57,566 Hillary Clinton carried a majority of women who had gone to college. 46 00:02:57,566 --> 00:03:02,533 If women in -- the non-college-educated women are responding to this charge and the sense 47 00:03:04,533 --> 00:03:09,033 that something is wrong and that -- that this is a society that is indifferent and intolerant 48 00:03:11,033 --> 00:03:14,933 of women and the abuse they have suffered, this is nothing but bad news for the Republicans. 49 00:03:14,933 --> 00:03:16,200 It's not where they want to be. 50 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:17,833 AMNA NAWAZ: So, how do they handle this? 51 00:03:17,833 --> 00:03:19,333 Part of this is about optics, right? 52 00:03:19,333 --> 00:03:22,300 I mean, and we're talking there could be a hearing next week. 53 00:03:22,300 --> 00:03:24,366 We don't know where this stands. 54 00:03:24,366 --> 00:03:28,466 You have got three men who could be questioning Dr. Ford who were there back in 1991, right, 55 00:03:30,533 --> 00:03:34,466 questioning Anita Hill, and didn't handle it well back then. 56 00:03:34,466 --> 00:03:36,533 How do they move forward? 57 00:03:36,533 --> 00:03:39,933 How did they have the hearing that everyone says they're going to be moving towards to 58 00:03:39,933 --> 00:03:43,800 some degree and not alienate this group that Mark was just talking about? 59 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,433 RAMESH PONNURU: Well, I think one thing we all have to remember is, the optics actually 60 00:03:47,433 --> 00:03:49,700 have to take a backseat to the facts. 61 00:03:49,700 --> 00:03:52,333 And it's going to be very hard to determine the facts. 62 00:03:52,333 --> 00:03:56,733 But the senators need to go in and be seen to be going in, yes, but mostly to actually 63 00:03:56,733 --> 00:03:58,833 go in, trying to determine the facts. 64 00:03:58,833 --> 00:04:03,166 We have got sworn statements now from Judge Kavanaugh, from Mark Judge, from an unnamed 65 00:04:03,166 --> 00:04:05,300 third party. 66 00:04:05,300 --> 00:04:09,166 We will presumably get a third -- get a sworn statement from the accuser as well, Professor 67 00:04:09,766 --> 00:04:11,800 Blasey Ford. 68 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,633 And then we're going to have to actually try to do what we can to figure out who's telling 69 00:04:14,633 --> 00:04:16,733 the truth. 70 00:04:16,733 --> 00:04:18,766 AMNA NAWAZ: Do you think that the way they have presented it so far enforces that message 71 00:04:18,766 --> 00:04:21,400 that we take this seriously, we have an intention to get to the bottom of this? 72 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,733 You're hearing some folks, like Mitch McConnell earlier today, we heard him in the show saying, 73 00:04:24,733 --> 00:04:26,000 Judge Kavanaugh is going to be confirmed. 74 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,000 RAMESH PONNURU: Right. 75 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:32,166 So I think it's one thing to say that, based on the evidence that you have heard so far, 76 00:04:33,366 --> 00:04:35,366 you are inclined to go with one or the other. 77 00:04:35,366 --> 00:04:37,500 But I think it's a real mistake to close your mind to the possibility that you're going 78 00:04:37,500 --> 00:04:39,600 to get new information. 79 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,333 If that's the case, then you do have to ask, why are we having any hearings at all? 80 00:04:42,333 --> 00:04:44,033 AMNA NAWAZ: I want to bring up a poll too. 81 00:04:44,033 --> 00:04:46,333 We have got some numbers to look at, Mark, and get your take on these. 82 00:04:46,333 --> 00:04:47,333 MARK SHIELDS: Yes. 83 00:04:47,333 --> 00:04:49,300 Sure. 84 00:04:49,300 --> 00:04:51,666 AMNA NAWAZ: This shows publicly, look, there has been an actual increase in opposition 85 00:04:51,666 --> 00:04:55,733 to Judge Kavanaugh over the last month, up nine points. 86 00:04:55,733 --> 00:04:57,966 At some point, does he become a political liability? 87 00:04:57,966 --> 00:05:00,600 MARK SHIELDS: I'm not sure he's a political liability. 88 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:04,466 I think that the subject is a political liability for Republicans. 89 00:05:04,466 --> 00:05:09,466 And, obviously, if he's stayed with and sullied with it, yes, he becomes a political liability. 90 00:05:10,900 --> 00:05:14,933 I think the hearing is -- Ramesh is right. 91 00:05:14,933 --> 00:05:18,933 The Republicans and the Democrats have basically taken their position, put on their uniforms, 92 00:05:18,933 --> 00:05:21,033 or at least the partisans have. 93 00:05:21,033 --> 00:05:25,000 The group that has yet to make a decision on this will look at the hearings. 94 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,133 And the hearings will be determinate. 95 00:05:27,133 --> 00:05:31,433 And it really isn't about Judge Kavanaugh as much as it's about Professor Ford. 96 00:05:31,433 --> 00:05:33,400 I mean, is she believable? 97 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:35,566 Is she sympathetic? 98 00:05:35,566 --> 00:05:38,266 Is she convincing? 99 00:05:38,266 --> 00:05:42,833 And the president saying, why didn't she come forward, why didn't she go the FBI when she 100 00:05:42,833 --> 00:05:47,700 was 15 years old, first of all, it's not a - - it's not a -- I'm not sure that we're talking 101 00:05:47,700 --> 00:05:49,733 about a federal offense. 102 00:05:49,733 --> 00:05:53,800 But, secondly, I mean, if anything we have learned, through the pain and torment of the 103 00:05:55,833 --> 00:05:59,500 Catholic clergy sexual abuse, is that people, out of pain, embarrassment, humiliation, a 104 00:06:01,966 --> 00:06:04,400 sense of fear, don't come forward. 105 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:09,400 I mean, the Department of Justice own numbers say that 22 percent of rape victims ever come 106 00:06:11,266 --> 00:06:12,833 forward. 107 00:06:12,833 --> 00:06:17,800 And so that -- but, really, it is David against Goliath. 108 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,466 And the focus is on her. 109 00:06:19,466 --> 00:06:22,266 The question, is she believable? 110 00:06:22,266 --> 00:06:23,800 Is she convincing? 111 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,966 I wasn't sure that Mark Judge had signed a sworn statement. 112 00:06:26,966 --> 00:06:28,866 RAMESH PONNURU: He made a statement to the Judiciary Committee. 113 00:06:28,866 --> 00:06:31,933 So, that is a potentially legally actionable document that is... 114 00:06:31,933 --> 00:06:35,133 MARK SHIELDS: OK, because he showed no willingness to... 115 00:06:35,133 --> 00:06:37,266 RAMESH PONNURU: He doesn't -- but he doesn't want -- yes, right. 116 00:06:37,266 --> 00:06:37,933 MARK SHIELDS: He wrote a book on the subject, but he didn't want to -- he doesn't want to 117 00:06:37,933 --> 00:06:39,400 talk about it. 118 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,466 RAMESH PONNURU: He doesn't want to talk about it anymore. 119 00:06:41,466 --> 00:06:42,300 AMNA NAWAZ: This is the other individual that Dr. Ford says was there in the room that day. 120 00:06:42,300 --> 00:06:44,333 (CROSSTALK) 121 00:06:44,333 --> 00:06:45,000 MARK SHIELDS: And his not testifying, seems to me, absolutely irrational. 122 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:46,166 (CROSSTALK) 123 00:06:46,166 --> 00:06:46,966 AMNA NAWAZ: Go ahead, Ramesh, yes. 124 00:06:46,966 --> 00:06:47,733 MARK SHIELDS: Sure. 125 00:06:47,733 --> 00:06:49,700 (CROSSTALK) 126 00:06:49,700 --> 00:06:51,766 RAMESH PONNURU: One of the things that's most dismaying about this entire debate is that 127 00:06:51,766 --> 00:06:56,333 almost everybody's views about what did or didn't happen 36 years ago lines up perfectly 128 00:06:57,733 --> 00:06:59,866 with what they think ought to happen to Roe v. Wade now. 129 00:06:59,866 --> 00:07:01,966 And that's not the way it ought to be. 130 00:07:01,966 --> 00:07:03,866 AMNA NAWAZ: You're saying it's too political now for anyone to have a real discussion about 131 00:07:03,866 --> 00:07:05,866 it. 132 00:07:05,866 --> 00:07:07,533 But it is an important discussion, one we're going to continue to have. 133 00:07:07,533 --> 00:07:08,766 I want to move on to another story that moved very quickly this week. 134 00:07:08,766 --> 00:07:10,800 MARK SHIELDS: OK. 135 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:12,533 AMNA NAWAZ: On Monday, President Trump announced he's going to be declassifying a trove of 136 00:07:12,533 --> 00:07:15,800 documents and text messages related to the Russia probe. 137 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,266 Today, he backtracked, right? 138 00:07:18,266 --> 00:07:20,833 He tweeted a couple of tweets, basically punting to the Department of Justice, say they're 139 00:07:20,833 --> 00:07:24,533 going to review before we take any action here. 140 00:07:24,533 --> 00:07:26,933 Ramesh, what happened over the last week? 141 00:07:26,933 --> 00:07:31,333 RAMESH PONNURU: Well, there was a lot of pushback against the idea of declassification, particularly 142 00:07:31,333 --> 00:07:36,333 the idea of a kind of thorough and unselective and undiscriminate -- indiscriminate declassification. 143 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:42,800 But, look, the president has a dysfunctional relationship with his Justice Department. 144 00:07:43,500 --> 00:07:44,700 We know that. 145 00:07:44,700 --> 00:07:46,633 We have known that for some time. 146 00:07:46,633 --> 00:07:49,233 And I think this is just one more instance of that happening, and another instance of 147 00:07:49,233 --> 00:07:51,800 his making a grand statement, and then not following through. 148 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,266 AMNA NAWAZ: Mark, what is your take? 149 00:07:54,266 --> 00:07:56,733 MARK SHIELDS: We're reviewing publicly the education or limited education of Donald Trump. 150 00:07:56,733 --> 00:08:01,733 I mean, he learned this week from allies, from very important sources within his -- the 151 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:08,633 United States government who he has to trust that this is bad -- bad policy, that what 152 00:08:10,066 --> 00:08:13,033 you're doing is, you're not simply revealing secrets. 153 00:08:13,033 --> 00:08:18,033 You're compromising sources, and that collection of intelligence is dependent upon a network 154 00:08:20,033 --> 00:08:24,366 of relationships, of trust, of belief, of confidence that you're not going to be made 155 00:08:24,833 --> 00:08:26,833 public. 156 00:08:26,833 --> 00:08:30,700 And allies just -- among others, just told Donald Trump, this is just an absolute reckless 157 00:08:32,266 --> 00:08:34,400 risk. 158 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:38,533 And sources within his own administration, important figures, stood up on this. 159 00:08:38,533 --> 00:08:40,566 And I think that's -- that that's what happened. 160 00:08:40,566 --> 00:08:44,000 AMNA NAWAZ: So, President Trump is going to loom large over the midterms, right, just 161 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:45,466 a few weeks away right now. 162 00:08:45,466 --> 00:08:47,133 MARK SHIELDS: He is. 163 00:08:47,133 --> 00:08:48,533 AMNA NAWAZ: Things have shifted dramatically over the last few weeks. 164 00:08:48,533 --> 00:08:49,733 Where are we now? 165 00:08:49,733 --> 00:08:51,700 What's it looking like for Republicans? 166 00:08:51,700 --> 00:08:55,366 MARK SHIELDS: I think -- I think it's the - - it's bleaker for Republicans than it was 167 00:08:55,366 --> 00:08:57,466 a week ago. 168 00:08:57,466 --> 00:09:01,533 And this is in spite of the fact that the stock market is an all-time high, that, among 169 00:09:03,433 --> 00:09:07,233 other factors, the lowest number of people in America applied for unemployment benefits 170 00:09:07,233 --> 00:09:12,233 in any year since 1968, when the economy was one-half its size and number of jobs. 171 00:09:14,233 --> 00:09:17,600 But Donald Trump is toxic. 172 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,400 He -- American voters do not like him. 173 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:26,166 When asked a very simple question, I like blank and agree with most of his policies, 174 00:09:26,166 --> 00:09:31,166 I would like and don't agree with the policy, I dislike blank and agree with policies, dislike 175 00:09:33,366 --> 00:09:38,366 him and agree with his policies, 70 percent of Americans say they do not like Donald Trump. 176 00:09:40,300 --> 00:09:44,366 I contrast this with Ronald Reagan, who had far worse economic conditions in 1982, when 177 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:50,000 the prime interest rate was at 21.5 percent, unemployment was the highest since the Great 178 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,433 Depression. 179 00:09:51,433 --> 00:09:55,733 And Ronald Reagan, 70 percent of Americans liked him. 180 00:09:55,733 --> 00:09:58,200 And that is what they're finding. 181 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:02,833 This is a referendum, the midterm election is a referendum on the president, on his performance, 182 00:10:03,566 --> 00:10:05,000 but on the man himself. 183 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,166 And that's why Reagan kept Republican losses low that year. 184 00:10:08,166 --> 00:10:11,766 And that's why Trump is really a problem for Republicans this year. 185 00:10:11,766 --> 00:10:15,300 They have to defend him or alienate him. 186 00:10:15,300 --> 00:10:18,900 And three-quarters of the Republican candidates who are running for reelection have never 187 00:10:18,900 --> 00:10:21,200 run with a Republican in the White House. 188 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,733 They have always run against Barack Obama, all right? 189 00:10:24,733 --> 00:10:26,033 Three-quarters were elected since Barack Obama. 190 00:10:26,033 --> 00:10:28,033 And that's a liberating thing. 191 00:10:28,033 --> 00:10:31,466 It's very defensive when you're trying to defend what Donald Trump did, for example, 192 00:10:31,466 --> 00:10:33,166 on tweets. 193 00:10:33,166 --> 00:10:34,400 AMNA NAWAZ: Ramesh, very quickly, less than a minute left. 194 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,533 Is it as bad as he says for Republicans? 195 00:10:36,533 --> 00:10:38,766 RAMESH PONNURU: Look, midterm elections usually go badly for the party that has the White 196 00:10:38,766 --> 00:10:43,033 House, because the opposition is revved up and your side is complacent. 197 00:10:43,033 --> 00:10:45,033 Trump's making both of those problems worse. 198 00:10:45,033 --> 00:10:48,733 He's revved up the opposition and he's telling his side, this is all propaganda. 199 00:10:48,733 --> 00:10:50,266 The elections are going swimmingly. 200 00:10:50,266 --> 00:10:51,566 Don't worry about it. 201 00:10:51,566 --> 00:10:54,133 The combination is one that is very damaging. 202 00:10:54,133 --> 00:10:58,933 And if they abandon -- if they allow Kavanaugh to go down to defeat with uncorroborated allegations, 203 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,266 the demoralization could get worse. 204 00:11:02,266 --> 00:11:04,500 AMNA NAWAZ: So is this the choice, as Mark said, alienate him or support him, say you're 205 00:11:04,500 --> 00:11:06,500 with him? 206 00:11:06,500 --> 00:11:09,000 RAMESH PONNURU: Well, if I were a Republican running for office, what I would want to do 207 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,700 is talk about the economic conditions, talk about other kinds of -- talk about controversies 208 00:11:12,700 --> 00:11:17,666 that play to you, and try to keep Trump out of the conversation as much as possible, because 209 00:11:17,666 --> 00:11:21,500 you face that constant problem, which, he's still an unpopular president. 210 00:11:21,500 --> 00:11:22,500 AMNA NAWAZ: Ramesh Ponnuru, Mark Shields, good to talk to you. 211 00:11:22,500 --> 00:11:22,633 MARK SHIELDS: Thank you, Amna.