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- [Narrator] This is NC Spin.

An unrehearsed discussion
on issues of interest

to North Carolinian.

Now, here is your
moderator, Tom Campbell.

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- Thank you for tuning in this
special edition of NC Spin.

Everything else about
2020 has been strange,

so we wanted to try to
put things in perspective.

This show is gonna take
a look at North Carolina

yesterday, today and tomorrow.

We're fortunate to
have a special panel

to help us in getting
that perspective.

So let's introduce them to you.

We began with Mike Walden,

who is the William Neal
Reynolds distinguished

Professor of economics
at NC State University.

Jim Leloudis, who is an
Associate Dean of Honors

and a History Professor
at UNC in Chapel Hill

and director of the
James Johnson Center

for Graduate Excellence.

And they're joined by as usual

John Hood, syndicated
columnist and author

and Chris Fitzsimon Director
of the State's Newsroom.

We're gonna begin our
uninterrupted discussion

after these brief messages
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- Let's begin the Spin.

I'd like for us to focus
our comments on this show

on the period BC, before COVID

WC with COVID

and AC after COVID.

Not so much for the acronyms.

Let's get started.

Jim Leloudis,

North Carolina's
history has experienced

many significant events.

I'm thinking about civil war,

reconstruction, the
1918 Spanish flu,

the great depression.

And prior to March of this year,

where would you say
we were historically?

- Well, well Tom,
you decide to start

with the easy
question first, right?

- Of course yes, yes.

- Yeah, I think I'll take you
up on where you started that.

I would go back to 1868 in
the middle of reconstruction

and the rather
extraordinary election

that happened that year.

In that election,

a new biracial alliance
of former slaves

and white allies

formed the state's newly
established Republican Party.

Won, 107 of 120 seats

in a constitutional convention

called at the
instruction of Congress

that to draft a new constitution

that would bring North
Carolina back into the union.

And the document they
produced was remarkable.

It guaranteed free elections.

It afforded every adult male
citizen the right to vote.

It did away with
property requirements

for running for high
office in North Carolina.

And for the first time
in this State's history,

created a system of elected

rather than appointed
County Government.

I mean, what they
were framing there

was a radically inclusive
and democratic vision

of the state's future,
but it didn't last.

- Right, The fusion
government, yeah.

- Yeah, it was
challenged by opponents

and this went on over
a period of 35 years

actually following
reconstruction challenged that,

that vision and wanted
to restore political

and economic order in
which power and wealth

were concentrated in
the hands of the few.

And they talked in ways

that we're familiar with today

with appeals to issues of
voter fraud and corruption,

much of it couched
and thinly veiled

more often than not
explicit racial appeals.

And the consequences
for this state were,

were profound and tragic.

- So bring us up to
where we were in January,

February and March.

How would you describe us then?

- All right. So
this is, you know,

the beginning of what we know
is the system of Jim Crow

and blacks, and second
class citizenship,

very poverty for
the state overall,

and some ways that you could
think of it as a bad movie

that runs again and again.

And I think in some ways on
the edge of the pandemic,

we were in one of those sequels

and in some respects,

the pandemic really laid bare
the issues that were at stake.

- That's a very good enough,

Frankly I was wondering
where you were going there

and how long it was going
to take to get there,

but you did a good job
of getting me there.

Thank you.

Mike, let's look at a similar
progression economically.

at various times in history,

we've been known as the
rip van winkle state,

because of our sluggish economy

also is the Dixie Dynamo.

We were hard hit during the
great recession of 2008.

How would you
describe our economy

prior to March of this year?

- Very good. Basically,
very, very good.

All the metrics for the
state look very well,

unemployment under 4%,
we had a growth rate,

a little under the national
average, but a growth rate.

That was good.

In fact, we had been the
longest period of time

in our history

since the previous recession,

and then all that
collapsed with the,

with the advent of COVID.

We have suffered through
COVID similarly to the nation,

big drop in the second quarter,

we think we're going
to have our big rebound

in the third quarter. We
don't have those numbers yet.

- [Mark] Yeah I'll
get there in a minute

- I think we are in a recovery
now, but it's slowing.

- Politically John,

we've always been a
pretty conservative state,

politically.

We went through a period in
the sixties with Terry Sanford

and then with Jim hunt
and so forth like that,

where we became a little
bit more progressive.

Where would you say
we were politically

prior to this election?

- North Carolina was, and, and,

and certainly was in early
2020 a center right state.

A state where many more people
would identify themselves

as conservatives
than as progressives,

but also a state that was
changing demographically

and politically.

It wasn't that long ago when
the Republicans first rose into

a competitive position
North Carolina,

which really only
started in the seventies,

it strengthened was
actually in urban areas

and some mountain counties that
had always been Republican,

but it was really urban
areas, suburban communities,

where the Republicans
had a lot of strength.

They struggled to win
in the rural areas

that were still democratic.

Well, obviously that situation

prior to COVID had
already begun to change.

It began to change even
before the Trump phenomenon.

And now what we have is a
closely divided electorate where

either party can win
most state offices.

And in fact, we saw
this year that they'll,

that some voters

will split their tickets
between them still.

- And we'll get to that
in just a few minutes.

Y'all are trying to
get ahead of me here.

Chris, so far as it goes,

John alluded to the fact
that we've had great

population increases at least
a hundred thousand per year.

Where are these people
coming from and, and where,

how had they changed North
Carolina on March 1st?

- Well, they're coming from
all over the United States

and we continue to be
one of the faster growing

States in the country. They're
coming to our urban areas,

increasingly our suburban areas.

I think professor Leloudis

to sit on a great word
to think about though,

where we were before
the, before COVID

we were living through the
sequel of sort of precariousness

where the COVID exposed
all these faults

that were already there along
racial and economic lines,

even though the economy is
doing well as Dr. Walden says,

there's a big swath
of North Carolina

that wasn't doing well,
largely African-American,

but also poor white,
struggling white families,

who are sort of right
for the populism

that has sort of
invaded our country.

And the last point I'll make
is where we were pre COVID

is a coalition

I think the Republican party
has made with sort of the

more extreme elements I've
talked often on the show,

whether it was the
tea party movement,

the nullification rallies,
or the legislature,

all this stuff was
sorta underneath

and Republicans were
holding it at arm's edge.

And Donald Trump has sort of
brought it into the mainstream.

And I think that's
why in North Carolina

and across the country,

now we're really struggling
with how our democracy rolls on

after this is tumultuous time.

- Mike in March of this year,

our unemployment rate was 4.4%.

We had come through
the great recession.

We were making nice
recovery in North Carolina.

In fact, I think he'd been
on our show not too long ago,

talking about we were
into this recovery prior

to the beginning
of COVID, right?

- That's right.

We had again done
very, very well

in the years between
the great recession

and the start of COVID when
I did your show a year ago,

I was talking about 2020
being another growth year,

sending more records and
COVID has set us back.

I don't think it's,

I don't think it set us back

necessarily in terms
of our fundamentals.

I think North Carolina is
going to come out of this,

looking to be what I
would call a safe state.

I think we could benefit
from being a state that yes,

has a range of, of locations
from density to low density.

I think we can attract
businesses and people from

some of the regions that are
really suffered like the,

like the Northeast I've
been told by state officials

that we continue to get
calls from businesses.

We had some very good
announcements the other day.

I do think the key in, in
the future is going to be,

we're going to have to
have a massive retraining

for the jobs that were lost,
all aren't coming back.

We're going to have a
different set of jobs.

And I think we need to
think very hard about

how are we going
to retrain workers.

And I think a lot of that's
going to be done by businesses,

apprenticeship,
certificates, et cetera.

- Yeah, you guys want
to keep taking me to

North Carolina tomorrow.

Let's, let's focus on
let's focus on yesterday.

Historically Jim,

would you say that the,

the big that history will
say that North Carolina

had resolved many
of its problems.

I know that you've
written a book about race,

and we're going to talk
about it a little while.

But would you say we've
resolved many of our problems

or that there were
fundamentally,

there were still history
problems that were nagging us?

- Yeah. You know,

I wish that I could say that
we hit resolved and I mean,

certainly things are better
today than they were in 1960.

But, you know, even in terms
of their recovery pre-COVID,

I think it's been important to
recognize the degree to which

that was quite uneven.

It was still the case
that we had state,

counties in this state,
in which up to 40%

of children lived in poverty.

And right before the pandemic,
I think we all remember,

well, several years
ago, you know,

that study that pointed
out that Charlotte

had the

lowest social mobility rate

of any Metro area in
the United States.

- Moving up economically.

- Yeah moving apart, if
you were born into poverty.

So yes, I mean the streets
made great advances.

There's no denying that,

but they are still
deep-rooted rooted problems

that, you know, derived
from our history

that remain very
much in front of us.

- All right, well, let's move
into North Carolina today.

Going into this year,

we believe the big story was
going to be the election.

Who knew, prior to March

nobody knew anything about
Corona virus or COVID-19

After recording our first
cases in early March,

our state like the rest
of the world, changed.

Jim, perhaps it's trite,

but we've never seen anything
like this before staying home,

virtual work, learning,
work and learning,

shopping, and travel.

How's history, going to record
our reaction to COVID-19.

- Well, you know,

I guess I'll keep up my
bad meta... movie metaphor.

We've been through this once
before it was in 1918-1919,

in Spanish flu pandemic.

And what's interesting
there is the parallels.

There was an anti mask movement.

Woodrow Wilson,

president of the United States
never said one word in public

about the flu. We were in a war.

He worried that it would
be a sign of weakness.

And the pandemic, developed
in exactly the same way.

A relatively mild,

at least in terms of
what was about to come

outbreak and like May to July

and then an absolute
whirlwind of death

between September and December.

Before it was over about a
fifth of all North Carolinas,

in North Carolina and
had gotten the flu,

about 14,000 died.

And the racial disparities,
were almost exactly

the same as they are today.

- Mike...

- So that piece of
it's pretty sobering.

- Mike, as you,
we've talked about,

the economy was
staging a recovery

from the great recession.

Then things should shut down.

Where are we economically today?

- Well, I think we
were at a recovery.

I mean, technically

we don't have the numbers
from North Carolina

for the third quarter,

but I think you can
look at job numbers.

We've been steadily increasing.

We have the big gains
and the late summer.

The gains have narrowed. I
think right now we could go,

we could, we, I would expect
to see growth continue,

but I am worried about
the surge right now.

Probably slowing things down,

but I think we're
past the worst.

And the question now is how
long will it take to get back

to where we were pre-COVID

and what kind of
criminate changes

that will, that will occur.

- John, you've written
some about this

in some of your columns,

North Carolina has changed.

We've changed from the
standpoint of, family gathering,

so far as work, So
far as shopping.

Many of the traditional

activities we've
enjoyed have changed.

Would you agree that
So far as it goes,

whether these changes
have been good or bad.

They've made an impact and
possibly we'll go forward.

- They've certainly
made an impact.

They have been largely negative,

but not entirely negative,
as Mike was alluding to.

There's a lot of question marks
now about how much of this

is a temporary phenomenon
that people will gladly

put behind them in
the rear view mirror,

as they raced forward, things
they were going to do in May

they'll do next spring,
that sort of thing.

Or are some of these changes,
in the case of the workplace

and commuting
patterns and education

are some of these changes
lasting one of the biggest

differences between pre-COVID

and the COVID experience
we're now in, is traffic.

- There's simply
a lot less traffic

in our metropolitan areas.

Now on the one hand,

if you are out driving,
this is delightful.

On the other hand, it
tells you something about

not just that people
are staying at home

and doing work from
home, they are,

but there is somewhat
less activity happening

than there was before.

I think that is largely
a fleeting phenomenon,

but some of these things will
probably become probable.

- I was going to say, you
get on our four lane roads,

like 70 and 95 and 40
and so forth like that,

there's a lot of traffic,
but I do think Chris,

we can agree that

everybody would like
to put this behind us.

Looking however, at Government,

and that's something we talk
quite a bit about on NC Spin.

Our governments have, have
really experienced some,

some phenomenon that are,
that are unusual to us.

For one thing,

we had really stark differences
between the legislature

and the Governor during
this, this crisis.

Would you agree?

- Well, I would agree,

but I think it reflects sort
of our national division about,

I think there is a
strong argument to be
made that the, the,

the economy was never going to
recover until we got control

of the virus.

I think we all, nobody
thought we could stay

sort of sequestered in
our home the entire time,

but there's just a lot of data
sets that have shown recently

that States that had masked
mandates early on, for example,

have done better than States
that have no restrict,

that had no restrictions at all.

But masks had to deal
with this all became

a political football.

Maybe that was to be
expected in a political year,

but I don't think it did,

it did us as a service
as a community.

And I also think it's hard to
talk about any of these issues

in the abstract. And I know
we were a North Carolina show,

but you know, we have,

we have no national
leadership at all

that helped unify the country
and bring us together.

In fact, it polarizes
further in North Carolina,

it made it much more difficult
for politicians on both sides

to talk plainly to people
about what was expected,

how we could help, how
government can help.

It's really been a frustrating
experience to watch our state

ripped in half.

- Mike, is there
any economic sector

that either suffered
more than another

or benefited more than
another from this virus?

- Well, I think technology

has been a point to
benefit has benefited

and will continue to benefit
because of things like

what we're doing right now.

In terms of suffering certainly.

Businesses and sectors
that rely a lot on

in-person contact,

tourism, restaurants,

hospitality, et cetera.

I think those are going
to fundamentally change

probably fewer people in them.

And finally, if we see remote
working really take off,

think of what's going to happen
to office complexes and all,

and offices that have
the, the janitors, the,

the secretarial staff, the,
the surrounding restaurants

that feed those
folks during noon,

they're going to
suffer immensely.

- Jim, how is history
going to record

North Carolina's reaction
to the elections?

What we did in the elections?

- Yeah. Well, I
mean, I, you know,

in part I'd go back to
some things that, yeah,

Chris had, Chris had said.

Look, I mean, we're, we're
a deeply divided state

and we've always
been a purple State.

I mean, that's, what's
interesting about

North Carolina history.

And it's only taken
the smallest margins

to move us one
direction or the other.

That's why issues
of our voting rights

end up being so critical here.

You know, I think that
in terms of the history

of the way we've dealt with
this particular moment,

I'm afraid the
judgments not gonna,

not going to be
very complimentary.

I learned in eighth
grade civics,

that government's role was to
protect the general welfare.

And you know,
whether we're looking

at the national
level or state level,

it's really disturbing
almost half a million

North Carolinians
without health insurance.

We went into this, tens of
thousands of more today.

One of the food banks,
my wife and I support,

we got an update yesterday.

15,007 and a half tons
of food in one week.

What kind of society, you know,

tolerates that?

It's a real call

to think about what we
believe in this country

and our obligation to --.

- Fascinating, fascinating
discussions guys.

But we got about six
minutes left in show,

and I want to get to
North Carolina tomorrow.

We've talked about leading up
to COVID the time since COVID,

now we want you to tell us
what to expect, Mike Walden,

what can economically
we expect for 20 and 21

and perhaps beyond?

- I think growth.

I think it'll be a year
or two before we get our,

our major metrics back to
where they were pre COVID.

I think North Carolina
competitively

will be looking
very well, very good.

I think we'll continue to
attract businesses and people.

But particularly in the
job area, massive changes,

massive overhaul about
where people work,

what kind of skills they need.

I think that's what I
would point to and say,

we need the most focus on.

- And Mike, we're going to be
having these vaccines coming

online mid-year,

late spring, early
mid-year for people.

How's that going to
affect us economically?

- Well, we actually may
benefit North Carolina

through some
production increases.

We have a pharmaceutical
sector here.

We have a manufacturing sector.

So just a knack, but obviously
a tremendous optimism.

I think we'll see a big
jump in the stock market

for example, but it won't
cure these underlying changes

that I'm emphasizing. Those
are still going to go on.

And that I think is what we
really need to worry about.

- So Jim Leloudis, let's,

let's examine what we can
expect from North Carolina

post pandemic.

We're going to have a new
administration in Washington.

We're going to have

a leadership in North Carolina,

which is still going to
see a governor of one party

a legislator, legislature
run by another one.

What can we expect?

So far as the atmosphere
politically in North Carolina?

- Well, you know, I'd
like to be optimistic.

So let, let me, let me
go in that direction.

I mean, I hope that
we can come together

across the political divisions
that do three things.

You know, look at the
turnout in this election,

one extraordinary
affirmation of democracy.

I hope that we can put more
effort to making it easier

for people to vote rather
than more difficult

for people to vote.

I hope that we'll take
gerrymandering seriously. Yes.

Historically has been
done by both parties.

That's no excuse.

We really need to
find a way to ensure

that all North Carolinians
have an opportunity

to elect people who represent
their community interests

and values.

- Jim

- And then third,

I hope we'll find some big ideas

for evening out that
kind of [mumbles].

- A great, a great
vision for our state,

we'd like to see a
great vision, right?

Excellent point. Chris, Jim
talked about gerrymandering.

We're going to get the
results from the 2020 census.

Albeit, we don't think that
they did a great job of,

of measuring who we
were in North Carolina.

Is this legislature going
to get more serious about

redistricting reform and,
and ending gerrymandering?

- Well, I'd like to say
yes, but I'm a little,

I'm not sure that that's
going to happen this time.

It's really hard to
ask people in power

to give up that power

and drawing the maps as the
ultimate political power.

But, you know,

the Republican state house
several years ago passed a,

a redistricting reform effort.

The Senate has been
lows to take it up.

I hope that public pressure
will at least figure out some

criteria that we
can use this year.

That people perceive as
fair. The long-term goal,

I think is some independent
body as happens in Iowa

and some other places.

We need to stop letting
politicians choose their voters,

but voters have to speak out
and demand that that happens.

- And, and so far as the
elections, we had expected,

maybe we might hear
something from that,

but I'm not sure that we did.

John, the biggest function of
state government is education.

Let's talk a little bit about

what we can expect
educationally.

We've seen a big shift away
from district or traditional

North Carolina schools, to
charters and private schools

our universities that
have gone through

a tremendous upheaval in
having the COVID on campus.

What do you expect?
A university,

a university wise and
public education wise?

- I think the COVID
experience simply accelerated

to some extent trends that
were already occurring.

There was already an increased
amount of school choice

in North Carolina
that will continue.

Most students will still go to
district run public schools,

but that percentage will
be 70% or 65 or something,

eventually not 85 or 90.

And as far as universities
are concerned,

there was already increased
use of distance learning,

online coursework for
students who were on campus

that will probably continue.

But lots of students
are dissatisfied

with their online courses.
So when that happens.

- Well in fact in
Lake, in Lake County,

they reported that 25%

of all the students that
did online learning,

the first part of the year,
flunked at least one quarter.

- That's right. I mean,
in the college context.

- Oh, okay.

- Some students like it,
some students just like it.

Some, we are not going to
have, you know, full spread,

you know, permanent virtual
education for most students,

that's not what they want.

- But additional amounts
of coursework online,

that's a permanent change.

- We are, we could
have this conversation.

This has been fascinating.

I thank you all for
participating in it.

And we could talk for hours.

Unfortunately we have 25
minutes and 26 seconds.

I do want to note
before we leave

that both of our guests
today are noted authors

and have been recognized for
the work that they've done.

And I want to review

and recognize some of
their latest books.

First of all, let me talk about
Jim Leloudis his new book,

Fragile Democracy,
Jim I've ordered it.

I'm looking forward to it.

It's a struggle over
race and voting rights,

in North Carolina.

Where can get it Amazon,
your local bookstore.

- Amazon, your local bookstore,

direct from UNC press
at a 40% discount.

- Oh, 40% discount wish
you to tell me before that.

Mike Walden, you've
written two new books.

I'm really intrigued about this.

The first one is Real Solutions,

common sense ideas for
solving our economy

and pressing problems.

And Disunionia. I get, did I
that pronounced that correctly.

- Disunionia

- Disunionia?

- Disunionia.

- A political thriller.

I don't expect my economist
to be writing novels.

- Amazon...

- Sometimes that side of
the brain kicks in John,

John Hood knows this
as we both do this.

So he writes fiction
and nonfiction.

I dabbled in both.

- All right. Well, good.

Let's, let's encourage
everybody to get it.

And folks, we are
excited to have had you

to join our show this week.

Like I say, we've
run out of time,

but we hope you've enjoyed
our post Thanksgiving show.

We hope you'll watch
our website, ncspin.com

and stay tuned, watch
out for the spin.

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