This year's governor's race has set a campaign spending record with more than $50 million being pumped into the contest between Beshear and Cameron.
And it could go even higher.
Dan Barnes, a Republican media consultant affiliated with Media Buying, talked to us yesterday about the ads you're seeing a lot of on television, cable and even digital platforms.
And part two of our conversation tonight, he shares how this off year contest could inform future political races and how candidates are making their final appeals to voters in these final days.
Politics, one on one says you start with positive biography, fiscal messaging.
That's what Beshear did right after the primary.
That not only helps you tell a positive story about yourself, but it helps you put on armor for later in the campaign when outside groups and campaigns come to attack you.
The the charges against you aren't as believable.
If if the audience has something else in their mind about you.
And that's why positive advertising is so important.
Cameron wasn't able to get up with positive message messaging until later in the summer, and he wasn't able to do a lot of it.
And I think it's one of the reasons that, you know, you've got a really conservative state in Kentucky.
You have a Democratic governor who only won by 5000 votes last time.
A lot of people saw this as an opportunity for Republicans to win.
I think if Cameron had had more resources and had been able to introduce himself, you know, earlier, he'd be in a stronger position.
And he had a. Contested 11 way primary to where he was being identified by his Republican opponents for several months, right?
That's right.
I mean, those attacks mattered.
And then, you know, he didn't have the money following that primary to get up immediately.
All that being said, I think Cameron is really close in this race.
I think it's a really close race.
I mean, Kentucky is a conservative state, right?
I mean, we've seen the margins in the Senate races, you know, grow from single digits.
When I worked for Rand Paul in 2010 to now double digit blowouts.
Right.
Right.
There's a question, can a Democrat win statewide in Kentucky anymore?
I think we're about to find out.
Right.
And all eyes are on Kentucky to see what happens.
Because if if Beshear is able to be victorious, we know that that's a bellwether.
Right.
And that other candidates next year in 2024, going to be looking to see how this Democratic governor and are really, really red state was able to pull it off.
You've got a handful of significant races this fall.
I think Kentucky is at the top of the list.
We had the governor's race in Louisiana, which ended before people thought it would end.
A Republican won there after a Democrat had been governor in that southern conservative state.
You've got the governor's race in Mississippi, which some people think is more competitive than maybe people thought.
You've got significant legislative races in Virginia and some ballot issue campaigns in Ohio.
But Kentucky is certainly the star this year.
So from your perspective, the bellwether counties in this Kentucky governor's race are what.
I think you're looking at.
Lexington, Louisville, northern Kentucky, for for Andy Beshear.
Bowling Green and Owensboro to Andy's.
Andy Beshear is spending a lot of money in the Evansville media market.
I think this final week he's running over a 3000 points of TV.
It's their most heavily invested market per dollar.
So I think the bigger cities and even some of the bigger cities out west are key places for Andy Beshear.
If you're Daniel Cameron, you like to hold the margins in those bigger cities and do a little bit better than Matt Bevin did there.
And then you have to just blow it out in rural Kentucky the way Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul have been doing in these recent races.
And I think that's I think it's possible for Cameron to do that.
I think this is going to be a close race.
I think both campaigns know what they want to do and know what they want to get out of their campaigns.
But I think it's we'll find out on Tuesday night.