WEBVTT 00:00.733 --> 00:01.866 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% [Scott] In this episode, 00:01.866 --> 00:03.300 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% we'll conclude our discussion 00:03.300 --> 00:06.266 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% of the benefits and challenges of electric cars. 00:06.266 --> 00:08.966 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Electric vehicles are gonna be a really important part 00:08.966 --> 00:10.700 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% of the energy transition, 00:10.700 --> 00:13.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but the way that we go about doing this matters. 00:13.600 --> 00:16.066 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% Subsidies have unintended consequences 00:16.066 --> 00:17.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% that are completely predictable. 00:17.833 --> 00:20.500 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% You know, what happens in the U.S., it matters, 00:20.500 --> 00:21.733 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% but we're a small share 00:21.733 --> 00:24.166 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and shrinking share of global emissions. 00:24.166 --> 00:26.466 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% - I think an electric future is 00:26.466 --> 00:28.900 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% one of the best options out there right now, 00:28.900 --> 00:31.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but there's a lot that we could do differently. 00:31.233 --> 00:33.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% Incentives should not be tied to range. 00:33.466 --> 00:35.133 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% That is gonna be really challenging 00:35.133 --> 00:38.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% in our transition to electrification. 00:38.033 --> 00:40.100 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% [Scott] Next on "Energy Switch," 00:40.100 --> 00:42.766 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% electric cars, pros and cons, 00:42.766 --> 00:44.166 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% part two. 00:45.800 --> 00:47.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 00:47.033 --> 00:50.166 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% was provided in part by 00:50.166 --> 00:52.666 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% the University of Texas at Austin, 00:52.666 --> 00:55.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% leading research in energy and the environment 00:55.166 --> 00:56.966 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% for a better tomorrow. 00:56.966 --> 00:59.700 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% What starts here changes the world. 01:00.733 --> 01:04.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And by EarthX, an international nonprofit 01:04.366 --> 01:07.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% working towards a more sustainable future. 01:07.066 --> 01:09.900 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% See more at earthx.org. 01:10.233 --> 01:11.600 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% [upbeat music] 01:11.600 --> 01:12.766 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - I'm Scott Tinker, 01:12.766 --> 01:14.900 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and I'm an energy scientist. 01:14.900 --> 01:16.533 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% I work in the field, 01:16.533 --> 01:17.633 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% lead research, 01:17.633 --> 01:19.400 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% speak around the world, 01:19.400 --> 01:20.466 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% write articles, 01:20.466 --> 01:23.400 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and make films about energy. 01:23.400 --> 01:26.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% This show brings together leading experts 01:26.100 --> 01:29.100 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% on vital topics in energy and climate. 01:29.100 --> 01:30.966 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% They may have different perspectives, 01:30.966 --> 01:33.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but my goal is to learn, and illuminate, 01:33.933 --> 01:37.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and bring diverging views together towards solutions. 01:38.100 --> 01:40.600 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Welcome to the "Energy Switch." 01:41.800 --> 01:43.666 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% In part one of this episode, 01:43.666 --> 01:46.966 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% we talked about how electric cars have become popular, 01:46.966 --> 01:49.666 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% but with some issues regarding their subsidies. 01:49.666 --> 01:52.300 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% The metals and minerals used to make their batteries 01:52.300 --> 01:54.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and the electricity that runs them, 01:54.433 --> 01:58.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% which still comes largely from CO2-emitting sources. 01:58.766 --> 02:03.000 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% In this episode, we'll talk about electric car mandates, 02:03.000 --> 02:06.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% upgrades to the grid required to charge more of them, 02:06.233 --> 02:09.366 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and other technologies that could reduce emissions. 02:09.366 --> 02:11.333 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% Again with, 02:11.333 --> 02:12.733 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% David Rapson, 02:12.733 --> 02:14.500 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% he's an energy economist for the 02:14.500 --> 02:16.900 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 02:16.900 --> 02:19.466 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% and the Chancellor's Leadership Professor of Economics 02:19.466 --> 02:21.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% at the University of California, Davis. 02:22.700 --> 02:26.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Beia Spiller is a fellow at Resources for the Future 02:26.133 --> 02:29.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% where she directs their transportation program. 02:29.000 --> 02:29.866 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% Before that, 02:29.866 --> 02:31.400 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% she was lead senior economist 02:31.400 --> 02:33.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% at the Environmental Defense Fund. 02:34.300 --> 02:36.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% On this episode of "Energy Switch," 02:36.600 --> 02:39.033 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% electric cars, pros and cons, 02:39.033 --> 02:40.333 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% part two. 02:40.866 --> 02:43.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - So let's talk about mandates a little bit. 02:43.000 --> 02:45.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Where are these mandates coming from in the U.S.? 02:45.533 --> 02:46.733 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% - So in the U.S., 02:46.733 --> 02:50.300 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% we have state level mandates from California and New York 02:50.300 --> 02:52.900 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% that are requiring no new 02:52.900 --> 02:56.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% internal combustion engine vehicle sales after 2035. 02:56.633 --> 02:59.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% At the federal level, there's some fleet mandates. 02:59.400 --> 03:03.433 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So the federal fleets vehicles need to go electric. 03:03.433 --> 03:05.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And then there's cities who are starting 03:05.400 --> 03:08.666 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% to mandate some of their fleets 03:08.666 --> 03:10.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% more on the medium, heavy duty vehicle side. 03:10.833 --> 03:13.266 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% School buses, transit buses. 03:13.266 --> 03:15.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% USPS, for example, is going all electric. 03:15.966 --> 03:19.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% So there's a lot of movement at the big fleet level 03:19.133 --> 03:20.433 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% to go electric. - Interesting. 03:20.433 --> 03:22.300 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And even California, you can't sell them, 03:22.300 --> 03:23.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% but you could still drive them. 03:23.800 --> 03:24.700 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% [Beia] That's right. 03:24.700 --> 03:26.566 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% - Or buy them in Nevada I guess. 03:26.566 --> 03:29.100 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Yes, absolutely. 03:29.100 --> 03:31.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Listen, mandates are not the way to go. 03:31.666 --> 03:35.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% We know a lot about how to affect change. 03:35.400 --> 03:38.333 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And I think let's just look at Norway 03:38.333 --> 03:41.733 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% because I think this is a really nice model to consider here. 03:41.733 --> 03:43.033 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% So, in Norway, 03:43.033 --> 03:45.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% they're not subsidizing, they're not banning. 03:45.700 --> 03:49.166 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% What they're doing is they're taxing gasoline cars 03:49.166 --> 03:51.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and they're exempting EVs from that. 03:51.633 --> 03:54.733 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And they've got over 90% market share of EVs 03:54.733 --> 03:57.133 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% in their new vehicle sales there. 03:57.133 --> 04:00.366 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And the subsidies are more along the lines of allowing 04:00.366 --> 04:04.833 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% free driving and HOV lanes and, you know, things like that. 04:04.833 --> 04:05.800 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Perks. 04:05.800 --> 04:07.000 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - Yeah, they're perks. 04:07.000 --> 04:10.833 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% The main financial incentive is the tax on gasoline cars, 04:10.833 --> 04:14.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% which by the way, this is exactly what we want. 04:14.133 --> 04:17.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The whole purpose of this is to reduce pollution 04:17.333 --> 04:19.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and you do that by reducing the ownership 04:19.533 --> 04:21.500 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and driving of gasoline cars. 04:21.500 --> 04:23.866 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Taxing them seems like a much better idea than 04:23.866 --> 04:25.666 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% subsidizing the alternative. 04:25.666 --> 04:28.100 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% But you mentioned two important pressure relief valves. 04:28.100 --> 04:29.533 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% And to the extent 04:29.533 --> 04:30.866 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% there are mandates that are being 04:30.866 --> 04:32.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% considered and any policy makers who are considering 04:32.700 --> 04:35.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% mandates, I'm looking at the camera, you know, 04:35.266 --> 04:37.066 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% we need pressure relief valves. 04:37.066 --> 04:41.133 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% So, you know, maybe a high fee for selling a gasoline car, 04:41.133 --> 04:42.733 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% but not banning it outright, 04:42.733 --> 04:45.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% allowing imports from adjacent states, or, you know, 04:45.866 --> 04:49.166 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% allowing old gasoline cars to stay on the road. 04:49.166 --> 04:51.700 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Because if it's the case that the use case for gasoline is 04:51.700 --> 04:54.700 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% still strong in many cases, if you ban that, 04:54.700 --> 04:58.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% there's gonna be really a lot of dissatisfaction. 04:58.233 --> 05:00.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - And what I'm really concerned about 05:00.000 --> 05:04.033 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% is the distributional effects of this, and particularly, 05:04.033 --> 05:06.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% where will these old gasoline vehicles be driven? 05:06.600 --> 05:09.100 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Are we gonna see much more concentration of these gasoline 05:09.100 --> 05:10.966 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% vehicles in lower income, 05:10.966 --> 05:12.900 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% disadvantaged communities 05:12.900 --> 05:16.700 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% and continue to perpetuate the harm that transportation 05:16.700 --> 05:18.633 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% pollution has on these communities? 05:18.633 --> 05:21.166 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% So I think that this is a challenge 05:21.166 --> 05:23.433 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% that we need to seriously think about 05:23.433 --> 05:25.366 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and put our heads together to find a solution for. 05:25.366 --> 05:26.500 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - Absolutely, I mean, 05:26.500 --> 05:30.466 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% maybe you go to cities where EVs make a lot of sense 05:30.466 --> 05:32.833 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% and start to try to implement some of these programs 05:32.833 --> 05:35.033 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% with the benefits falling to 05:35.033 --> 05:37.200 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% those who can least afford it. 05:37.200 --> 05:38.700 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Because you go up, you know, 05:38.700 --> 05:41.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% from $2.50 a gallon to $3 a gallon for gasoline 05:41.700 --> 05:44.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and it hurts people who can't afford that. 05:44.733 --> 05:45.866 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Absolutely. 05:45.866 --> 05:49.833 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% These distributional issues, they're very important. 05:49.833 --> 05:53.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I think it's something that we always struggle with, 05:53.266 --> 05:56.000 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% whether it's in the context of climate policy 05:56.000 --> 05:58.200 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% or electric vehicles or just in general when thinking about 05:58.200 --> 06:00.033 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% the well-being of society, 06:00.033 --> 06:02.200 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% but I think we need to figure out how to do a better job. 06:02.200 --> 06:06.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And I don't think that that should stop us from doing 06:06.266 --> 06:08.700 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% what's right for the environment. 06:08.700 --> 06:13.200 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Could that money effort be spent on other technologies? 06:13.200 --> 06:15.100 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Could it be done differently 06:15.100 --> 06:17.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% for a similar effect on the emissions? 06:17.333 --> 06:19.766 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - So I think one type of technology, 06:19.766 --> 06:22.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% which I really would've liked to see advance more, 06:22.733 --> 06:27.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% is just the improvement of the least efficient vehicles. 06:27.433 --> 06:29.766 align:left position:37.5% line:83% size:52.5% So taking a 10-mile-per-gallon vehicle, 06:29.766 --> 06:32.733 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% replacing with a 15-mile-per-gallon vehicle 06:32.733 --> 06:35.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% will get you more gasoline savings 06:35.466 --> 06:38.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% than replacing a 25-mile- per-gallon vehicle 06:38.100 --> 06:39.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% with a 100-mile-per-gallon vehicle. 06:39.500 --> 06:40.533 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Yeah, yeah. 06:40.533 --> 06:43.266 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - The efficiency standards set by the EPA, 06:43.266 --> 06:45.733 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% they have differing standards for different vehicles. 06:45.733 --> 06:48.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So they have much more stringent standards for the 06:48.700 --> 06:50.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% small cars that are much more efficient. 06:50.866 --> 06:52.866 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% It should be the opposite, and yet, 06:52.866 --> 06:54.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% what's happening within the manufacturers, 06:54.800 --> 06:56.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% because they're going electric, 06:56.366 --> 06:58.466 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% they're not taking those efforts 06:58.466 --> 06:59.900 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% to actually improve the bottom. 06:59.900 --> 07:02.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% They're relying upon EVs to get 07:02.400 --> 07:05.100 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% to that efficiency standard average. 07:05.100 --> 07:06.500 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - Same money and effort, 07:06.500 --> 07:08.000 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% different technologies. 07:08.000 --> 07:11.200 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - Hydrogen is one area where we need to continue to innovate. 07:11.200 --> 07:14.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And I think the other main area is in carbon capture. 07:14.633 --> 07:15.466 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% I mean, 07:15.466 --> 07:17.300 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% how great would it be if we could 07:17.300 --> 07:19.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% suck carbon outta the atmosphere? 07:19.366 --> 07:21.566 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Currently, there are pilots that are doing this at a 07:21.566 --> 07:24.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% few hundred dollars per, you know, ton of CO2. 07:24.966 --> 07:27.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And a lot of the policies we're implementing, you know, 07:27.666 --> 07:29.900 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that are indirect costs a lot more than that. 07:29.900 --> 07:33.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So, you know, if we can scale carbon capture, 07:33.100 --> 07:37.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that just frees us from so many of the challenges, 07:37.266 --> 07:39.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% not least of which is the collective action problem 07:39.633 --> 07:41.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% of getting the rest of the world to do this. 07:41.466 --> 07:43.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% But, yeah, we need to continue to innovate 07:43.400 --> 07:47.300 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and we can't allow the electrification 07:47.300 --> 07:51.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% aspirations to reduce the amount of innovation 07:51.066 --> 07:52.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% that's happening elsewhere because I think 07:52.866 --> 07:55.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% there are risks that are undervalued here 07:55.066 --> 07:57.000 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and we're gonna need these other technologies. 07:57.000 --> 07:58.200 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Yeah. 07:58.200 --> 08:00.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And I think that we need to take a multi-prong approach. 08:00.500 --> 08:02.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% There isn't just one silver bullet 08:02.600 --> 08:04.066 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% that's going to fix everything. 08:04.066 --> 08:06.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% We need to make sure that public transit 08:06.266 --> 08:10.600 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% is accessible and fast for disadvantaged communities. 08:10.600 --> 08:14.666 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% We need to be promoting the use of electric bikes 08:14.666 --> 08:16.866 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and just bicycling, walking, 08:16.866 --> 08:19.333 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% making cities more walkable. 08:19.333 --> 08:20.733 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% And that will have, you know, 08:20.733 --> 08:23.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% distributional benefits as well as reduced emissions. 08:23.966 --> 08:25.233 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - Right, right. 08:25.233 --> 08:29.833 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% Dave, you've mentioned a couple times the cheap gasoline tank. 08:29.833 --> 08:31.766 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% I mean, does the hybrid make sense? 08:32.866 --> 08:34.066 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Some of both on the same car? 08:34.066 --> 08:35.233 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% - Oh, absolutely. 08:35.233 --> 08:37.833 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I think that the hybrid is a great option in particular 08:37.833 --> 08:41.133 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% where there's cold weather and where the grid is dirty, 08:41.133 --> 08:42.700 align:left position:37.5% line:83% size:52.5% both from a performance perspective 08:42.700 --> 08:45.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and also from an emissions perspective. 08:45.600 --> 08:47.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% I think hybrids can play a real role. 08:47.533 --> 08:50.666 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - Well I think what's promising about plug-in hybrids 08:50.666 --> 08:54.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% is the ability to be able to switch back and forth. 08:54.100 --> 08:56.533 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Couldn't we envision an electric vehicle 08:56.533 --> 08:58.233 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% that has more range, 08:58.233 --> 09:01.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% but then has a very small gasoline tank? 09:01.400 --> 09:03.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% So that range anxiety is gone. 09:03.400 --> 09:04.800 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% You run out of electricity. 09:04.800 --> 09:08.733 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% You can just, you know, use that extra gallon of gasoline. 09:08.733 --> 09:10.333 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Rather, the plug-in hybrids right now 09:10.333 --> 09:12.433 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% are set up that it's mostly gasoline 09:12.433 --> 09:14.333 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and they're mainly driven with gasoline. 09:14.333 --> 09:15.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And I think that's the challenge. 09:15.533 --> 09:17.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And then you have this 25 mile range. 09:17.366 --> 09:20.366 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% So will we see more innovation about what types of plug-in 09:20.366 --> 09:21.633 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% hybrids are being developed? 09:21.633 --> 09:22.766 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% I really hope so. 09:22.766 --> 09:24.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - And you can shift some of the weight, too. 09:24.466 --> 09:27.300 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I mean, a little less weight in the battery, gasoline. 09:27.300 --> 09:30.033 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% So that brings this kind of to this range discussion, right? 09:30.033 --> 09:31.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Most people don't really need as much range 09:31.666 --> 09:33.066 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% as they think they need. 09:33.066 --> 09:35.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% So why are we so focused on that? 09:35.400 --> 09:36.866 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - I think early on, 09:36.866 --> 09:38.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% there was some survey evidence that came out 09:38.600 --> 09:40.133 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% about range anxiety 09:40.133 --> 09:43.366 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and then that became adopted as the narrative. 09:43.366 --> 09:44.600 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% But, yeah, I mean, 09:44.600 --> 09:48.833 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% it has led to subsidy programs being linked to battery size, 09:48.833 --> 09:51.366 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and, you know, you're only eligible for a subsidy 09:51.366 --> 09:55.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% if your EV car's battery is big enough. 09:55.200 --> 09:57.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I think that's unfortunate because one of the things 09:57.433 --> 10:00.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% we wanna be promoting is, you know, smaller, 10:00.466 --> 10:02.433 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% less expensive EVs for people 10:02.433 --> 10:05.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% who don't need big, long range trips. 10:05.600 --> 10:07.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - I fully agree with you on that point 10:07.266 --> 10:09.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and I think there needs to be more variety. 10:09.466 --> 10:12.400 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I'd like to go and be able to purchase a slightly cheaper 10:12.400 --> 10:14.666 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% car that has a lower range. 10:14.666 --> 10:16.266 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% Give me those options. 10:16.266 --> 10:18.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% But if those subsidies are forcing manufacturers 10:18.700 --> 10:20.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% to make the batteries longer and longer range, 10:20.866 --> 10:23.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% I'm not gonna have that opportunity for price savings. 10:23.366 --> 10:24.400 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - That makes sense. 10:24.400 --> 10:26.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - And, also, the charging station investments. 10:26.700 --> 10:29.633 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% You know, if we have charging stations in many places, 10:29.633 --> 10:33.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% just as many as we have gasoline fueling stations, 10:33.433 --> 10:35.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that range anxiety should go down. 10:35.300 --> 10:36.233 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Yeah. 10:36.233 --> 10:38.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% How do we start to see this network grow? 10:38.466 --> 10:42.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Should the people benefiting from EVs pay for it 10:42.133 --> 10:44.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% or should this be a federally paid for thing? 10:44.500 --> 10:45.533 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Well, right now, 10:45.533 --> 10:47.800 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% there's a huge amount of federal funds to expand 10:47.800 --> 10:49.000 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% the charging network. 10:49.000 --> 10:53.333 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% There's $6.5 billion between the Inflation Reduction Act 10:53.333 --> 10:55.133 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and the infrastructure bill. 10:55.133 --> 10:56.933 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% - So that's a everybody pays model? 10:56.933 --> 10:58.100 align:left position:42.5% line:83% size:47.5% Taxes. - Yeah. 10:58.100 --> 10:59.533 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% I mean, so it comes out of taxes. 10:59.533 --> 11:01.600 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% And obviously, you know, back to your point about whether 11:01.600 --> 11:03.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% or not taxes are regressive, well, 11:03.166 --> 11:04.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% we can have higher taxes on the wealthy 11:04.900 --> 11:06.366 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% to be able to subsidize this. 11:06.366 --> 11:08.966 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% It doesn't have to be a flat tax across everybody. 11:08.966 --> 11:10.766 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - I think we're getting way ahead of ourselves on the 11:10.766 --> 11:12.133 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% infrastructure piece. 11:12.133 --> 11:15.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I think we should not be subsidizing massive rollout 11:15.633 --> 11:18.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% of EV charging stations, and it's for two reasons. 11:18.733 --> 11:19.933 align:left position:45% line:89% size:45% One, 11:19.933 --> 11:21.600 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I think the market is gonna be really good at providing 11:21.600 --> 11:23.033 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% those when they're needed. 11:23.033 --> 11:24.400 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% And right now, 11:24.400 --> 11:26.800 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% if we're building out a lot of charging stations where there 11:26.800 --> 11:29.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% aren't a lot of EVs, that just doesn't make sense. 11:29.766 --> 11:31.100 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - You're such an economist. 11:31.100 --> 11:32.333 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% [group laughing] 11:32.333 --> 11:33.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - Guilty as charged. - Market. 11:33.633 --> 11:35.933 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - No, I disagree with that statement. 11:35.933 --> 11:38.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Right now, we're facing a chicken and egg problem, right? 11:38.533 --> 11:41.433 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% Which comes first, the vehicle or the charging station? 11:41.433 --> 11:44.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And so if you don't have charging stations 11:44.233 --> 11:46.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% in many locations where people don't have a garage, 11:46.433 --> 11:48.166 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% think about New York City. 11:48.166 --> 11:49.966 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% The majority of us who have cars 11:49.966 --> 11:51.500 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% do not have anywhere to charge it. 11:51.500 --> 11:52.833 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - You're right. 11:52.833 --> 11:55.400 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% Why wouldn't a company just build out 11:55.400 --> 11:58.800 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% a monopoly charging station network in Manhattan? 11:58.800 --> 12:00.600 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% They could make a lot of money if you're right. 12:00.600 --> 12:01.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% You know, there's no reason the government 12:01.866 --> 12:03.033 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% needs to be involved in that. 12:03.033 --> 12:04.033 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - Well, I mean, 12:04.033 --> 12:05.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% one of the concerns really has to do 12:05.833 --> 12:07.433 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% with interoperability, right? 12:07.433 --> 12:08.566 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% So for example, 12:08.566 --> 12:12.533 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% the Tesla supercharging stations that were only available 12:12.533 --> 12:14.033 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% to Tesla drivers. 12:14.033 --> 12:15.000 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% - Except for now. 12:15.000 --> 12:16.166 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - Except for now, right? 12:16.166 --> 12:20.466 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% They opened it up to everybody, which I think is huge. 12:20.466 --> 12:22.800 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% That's so beneficial because could you imagine like going to 12:22.800 --> 12:24.666 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% a gas station and you, oh, 12:24.666 --> 12:27.400 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% you have the square plug instead of the rectangular plug? 12:27.400 --> 12:28.800 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% - But it's a fascinating dialogue 12:28.800 --> 12:31.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% we probably shouldn't dive too deeply into, 12:31.100 --> 12:33.166 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% but Elon took a big risk, 12:33.166 --> 12:34.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% spent a lot of money, built a system. 12:34.866 --> 12:37.933 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Now he's being essentially told after a trip to DC, 12:37.933 --> 12:39.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% you gotta open it up to everybody. 12:39.100 --> 12:40.000 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Well, he should! 12:40.000 --> 12:41.200 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% There's no reason-- 12:41.200 --> 12:42.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - It's a company, it's a private sector. 12:42.666 --> 12:44.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% - Yes, but there is no reason, 12:44.366 --> 12:47.666 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% there's no way we would allow gasoline stations to have 12:47.666 --> 12:50.166 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% plugs that are specific to a certain type of vehicle, 12:50.166 --> 12:51.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and yet we're allowing this monopoly to happen. 12:51.833 --> 12:53.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - But those weren't by the government. 12:53.233 --> 12:54.300 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Well. 12:54.300 --> 12:57.866 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - When we switched from the horse to the car, 12:57.866 --> 12:59.233 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% there were no gasoline stations. 12:59.233 --> 13:00.266 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 13:00.266 --> 13:02.000 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% - It took about 15 years 'cause 13:02.000 --> 13:04.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% the product was so much better. 13:04.400 --> 13:05.900 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% Is it so much better? 13:05.900 --> 13:08.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Is the EV so much better than a gasoline car? 13:08.833 --> 13:12.133 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - So people are advocating for complete electrification 13:12.133 --> 13:13.466 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% have in the back of their mind 13:13.466 --> 13:16.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% this S-curve of adoption where, you know, 13:16.333 --> 13:18.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% right now you've got these early adopters 13:18.266 --> 13:20.166 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% and we're at this inflection point where maybe 13:20.166 --> 13:21.733 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% it's gonna hit the mass market, 13:21.733 --> 13:23.666 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and in a few years or whenever, 13:23.666 --> 13:25.433 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% it's gonna be up at 100%. 13:25.433 --> 13:28.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But that model works when the product dominates. 13:28.700 --> 13:30.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So we saw that in flat screen televisions, 13:30.600 --> 13:32.500 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% we saw that in smartphones. 13:32.500 --> 13:34.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Do EVs dominate gasoline cars? 13:34.800 --> 13:35.666 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% I don't think so. 13:35.666 --> 13:36.666 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% They're more expensive. 13:36.666 --> 13:37.866 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% You've got, I mean, 13:37.866 --> 13:41.200 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Beia has mentioned a whole bunch of different obstacles, 13:41.200 --> 13:42.233 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% which I agree with. 13:42.233 --> 13:44.533 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% And so I think we should be open 13:44.533 --> 13:46.900 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% to the idea that we're gonna be encountering, 13:46.900 --> 13:49.966 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% we're gonna be learning about the costs and maybe we get to 13:49.966 --> 13:52.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% 50% or 70%, or, you know, who knows, 13:52.966 --> 13:56.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but there's a good chance we're not gonna get to 100%. 13:56.733 --> 13:59.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - I actually do believe that EVs are a better car. 13:59.833 --> 14:01.600 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% They're more agile, 14:01.600 --> 14:02.500 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% they're zippier, 14:02.500 --> 14:03.866 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% they're more fun to drive, 14:03.866 --> 14:05.900 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% they don't make any noise, 14:05.900 --> 14:08.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and they don't have those terrible fumes. 14:08.166 --> 14:10.200 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% Now, the question is, 14:10.200 --> 14:12.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% is there currently on the market enough vehicles 14:12.966 --> 14:14.866 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% that have the characteristics that we want? 14:14.866 --> 14:16.033 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% I would say no. 14:16.033 --> 14:17.466 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% But that will come. 14:17.466 --> 14:20.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And so if we compare two identical vehicles, 14:20.066 --> 14:21.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% one which is electric and one that is not, 14:21.966 --> 14:23.333 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% the electric one dominates. 14:23.333 --> 14:24.666 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% Now, is it more expensive? 14:24.666 --> 14:26.100 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Yes, it's more expensive. 14:26.100 --> 14:28.233 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% But that doesn't mean that it's not a better product. 14:28.233 --> 14:30.000 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Well that means it doesn't dominate. 14:30.000 --> 14:32.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - How do we say it's a better product? 14:32.266 --> 14:35.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - Dominate means it's better in every dimension. 14:35.066 --> 14:36.033 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% And EVs are not. 14:36.033 --> 14:38.066 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Well, I disagree. 14:38.066 --> 14:40.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Right now, residential, you know, commercial, 14:40.233 --> 14:44.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% industrial are the big demands on our grid. 14:44.133 --> 14:47.366 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% If we add a transportation component to that, 14:47.366 --> 14:49.233 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% another big wedge to that, 14:49.233 --> 14:50.166 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% how do we do that? 14:50.166 --> 14:51.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% How do we integrate that into the grid, 14:51.966 --> 14:56.800 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% create another big source of electricity needed for this? 14:56.800 --> 14:59.066 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - There's two different things that we have to talk about here. 14:59.066 --> 15:02.333 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% One is the distribution grid, the wires, the poles, 15:02.333 --> 15:03.466 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% the transformers, 15:03.466 --> 15:05.000 align:left position:37.5% line:83% size:52.5% all of that equipment that brings 15:05.000 --> 15:06.766 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% the electricity to your home. 15:06.766 --> 15:08.433 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% That's one area that we're gonna 15:08.433 --> 15:10.866 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% have to be doing massive investments in. 15:10.866 --> 15:14.000 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Even a few electric vehicles charging at the same time 15:14.000 --> 15:16.566 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% within one specific location 15:16.566 --> 15:19.233 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% might require upgrades to that area. 15:19.233 --> 15:20.900 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% The second area is, of course, 15:20.900 --> 15:22.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% on the generation side of things. 15:22.600 --> 15:24.466 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And then the question there is really, 15:24.466 --> 15:27.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% how do we bring more renewables onto the grid 15:27.000 --> 15:29.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% to allow for that charging to be clean? 15:29.400 --> 15:30.866 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Now the Inflation Reduction Act 15:30.866 --> 15:35.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% has many production and investment tax credits targeted 15:35.333 --> 15:36.733 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% towards wind and solar. 15:36.733 --> 15:41.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So we will expect that generation will increase 15:41.733 --> 15:43.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% just naturally because of all these in investments 15:43.900 --> 15:45.966 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% in renewables there. 15:45.966 --> 15:48.900 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - Well, I think the distinction that really needs to be 15:48.900 --> 15:51.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% understood here is between intermittent sources of supply, 15:51.900 --> 15:54.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% like wind and solar that we can't control 15:54.633 --> 15:55.900 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% when they're producing, 15:55.900 --> 15:58.266 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and dispatchable sources of supply, 15:58.266 --> 16:01.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% which we can turn up when we need more energy 16:01.266 --> 16:03.100 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and turn down when we need less. 16:03.100 --> 16:06.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And so right now, you know, frankly, 16:06.100 --> 16:08.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% the best part of decarbonizing the grid so 16:08.033 --> 16:10.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% far has been switching from coal and natural gas, 16:10.633 --> 16:14.400 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% but we're trying to integrate more intermittent renewables. 16:14.400 --> 16:15.533 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% And as we do that, 16:15.533 --> 16:17.633 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% I think the value of having more 16:17.633 --> 16:20.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% dispatchable load is gonna be very high. 16:20.800 --> 16:23.700 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And there, we're basically talking natural gas, 16:23.700 --> 16:26.200 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% we're talking maybe nuclear, 16:26.200 --> 16:27.466 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and we're talking batteries. 16:27.466 --> 16:32.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The selection is not huge for what can meet that need. 16:32.066 --> 16:34.400 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - And natural gas would need carbon capture. 16:34.400 --> 16:36.300 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Well, to be zero carbon, it would. 16:36.300 --> 16:38.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - We also have geothermal, right? 16:38.433 --> 16:39.600 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% [Scott] Yes, absolutely. 16:39.600 --> 16:40.900 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - Geothermal and hydro, 16:40.900 --> 16:43.500 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% although hydro has its issues with methane. 16:43.500 --> 16:46.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - So you've mentioned a couple times, Beia, 16:46.000 --> 16:48.600 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% that when you charge matters. 16:48.600 --> 16:49.966 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Is that a problem, opportunity? 16:49.966 --> 16:51.133 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% How do you see that? 16:51.133 --> 16:52.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - One of the great things about electric vehicles 16:52.933 --> 16:55.300 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% is that the charging needs is really flexible. 16:55.300 --> 16:58.300 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Most vehicles are not utilized 16:58.300 --> 17:00.066 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% for the large majority of the day. 17:00.066 --> 17:02.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% So you could imagine having the vehicle plugged in, 17:02.500 --> 17:03.666 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% but not charging, 17:03.666 --> 17:07.400 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and then turning on and off as grid conditions change. 17:07.400 --> 17:09.400 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% Then this will require coordination 17:09.400 --> 17:11.000 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% 'cause one of the things that happened 17:11.000 --> 17:12.366 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% is some of these vehicles, 17:12.366 --> 17:15.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% they came with a default setting to only turn on the 17:15.733 --> 17:17.266 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% charging at midnight. 17:17.266 --> 17:18.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% So if you plugged it in at 6:00 PM, 17:18.900 --> 17:20.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% it would wait until midnight to charge, 17:20.633 --> 17:22.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% which on its face was an idea that 17:22.166 --> 17:24.700 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% let's charge when demand is low, 17:24.700 --> 17:26.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but then all of a sudden, you have this pile up, 17:26.766 --> 17:28.400 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% this new peak at midnight. 17:28.400 --> 17:29.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And I think that's really problematic. 17:29.833 --> 17:32.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% So it does require coordination in terms of, 17:32.533 --> 17:35.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% can we stagger when these vehicles are being turned on? 17:35.866 --> 17:38.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And there's a role for automated software 17:38.300 --> 17:39.500 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% to help us do that, 17:39.500 --> 17:42.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but also for third party aggregators to help coordinate 17:42.300 --> 17:43.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% across different vehicle owners. 17:43.833 --> 17:44.833 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 17:44.833 --> 17:48.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Let's kind of get some closing thoughts here. 17:48.366 --> 17:49.833 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% Should we mandate EVs, 17:49.833 --> 17:52.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% subsidize them to encourage their adoption, 17:52.033 --> 17:54.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% or if we were gonna do it differently, 17:54.300 --> 17:55.633 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% how would we do that. 17:55.633 --> 17:59.700 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Closing thoughts as you think about wrapping that up, Beia. 17:59.700 --> 18:03.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - I would say that I'm very excited about the future. 18:03.633 --> 18:07.800 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I think an electric future is one of the best options 18:07.800 --> 18:11.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% out there right now for reducing tailpipe emissions, 18:11.466 --> 18:14.466 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% for reducing-- improving air quality, 18:14.466 --> 18:16.600 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% particularly in disadvantaged communities. 18:16.600 --> 18:19.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But there's a lot that we could do differently, right? 18:19.100 --> 18:22.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% For example, let's get scrappage programs. 18:22.566 --> 18:24.900 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Some of these scrappage programs have been shown to be 18:24.900 --> 18:26.300 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% somewhat ineffective. 18:26.300 --> 18:27.966 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Let's structure them better. 18:27.966 --> 18:30.000 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% And so as we bring more EVs in, 18:30.000 --> 18:32.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% let's get those dirtiest gasoline vehicles off the road. 18:32.866 --> 18:35.533 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% And I agree with Dave in that 18:35.533 --> 18:37.500 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% we need to remove any sort of incentive 18:37.500 --> 18:40.666 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% for manufacturers to increase that battery size. 18:40.666 --> 18:44.100 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Incentive should not be tied to range of the battery. 18:44.100 --> 18:45.733 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% That is gonna be really challenging 18:45.733 --> 18:48.133 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% in our transition to electrification. 18:48.133 --> 18:49.266 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% - So quit making it bigger when 18:49.266 --> 18:50.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% what we need is really smaller, lighter. 18:50.566 --> 18:51.866 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - I think that's right. 18:51.866 --> 18:52.866 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% [Scott] Shorter. 18:52.866 --> 18:54.166 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - Or at least variety. 18:54.166 --> 18:57.666 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Allow people to choose the battery size that they want. 18:57.666 --> 19:01.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Don't force everybody to have a 500 mile range. 19:01.766 --> 19:03.100 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - Yeah, yeah, interesting. 19:03.100 --> 19:04.333 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% Same question. 19:04.333 --> 19:07.200 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Yeah, electric vehicles are gonna be a really important part 19:07.200 --> 19:08.933 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% of the energy transition. 19:08.933 --> 19:10.266 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% There's no question about that. 19:10.266 --> 19:13.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% They are currently the most promising technology, 19:13.200 --> 19:16.400 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but the way that we go about doing this matters 19:16.400 --> 19:19.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and it doesn't work too well to force Americans 19:19.366 --> 19:22.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% to adopt something they don't want. 19:22.033 --> 19:24.533 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% Subsidies have unintended consequences 19:24.533 --> 19:26.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that are completely predictable, right? 19:26.833 --> 19:28.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% If all we're doing is subsidizing, 19:28.833 --> 19:32.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% we're not creating the incentive to burn less gasoline, 19:32.266 --> 19:33.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% which is the main point of it. 19:33.800 --> 19:37.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And finally, you know, what happens in the U.S., it matters, 19:37.633 --> 19:38.933 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% but we're a small share 19:38.933 --> 19:41.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and shrinking share of global emissions. 19:41.466 --> 19:44.200 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% And we could decarbonize entirely 19:44.200 --> 19:46.266 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% and we wouldn't have even, you know, 19:46.266 --> 19:50.100 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% started to fix the problem globally of temperatures rising 19:50.100 --> 19:51.800 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% because the developing world 19:51.800 --> 19:54.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% is now burning a lot of energy there. 19:54.033 --> 19:56.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% We're bringing people out of poverty, which is great, 19:56.200 --> 19:58.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and they're demanding energy services. 19:58.066 --> 20:01.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% We need to figure out how to get them clean energy. 20:01.000 --> 20:02.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And I would just ask the question, 20:02.666 --> 20:04.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% do we think that this electrification 20:04.400 --> 20:07.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% vision that we're pursuing here in, you know, 20:07.266 --> 20:10.633 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% the wealthiest country in the world is gonna be suitable 20:10.633 --> 20:15.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% for African nations that, you know, are doubling in size? 20:15.033 --> 20:16.500 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% I think the answer there is 20:16.500 --> 20:20.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% pretty clearly no with current technologies. 20:20.466 --> 20:22.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% We need to really take that seriously. 20:22.200 --> 20:23.266 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - That's interesting. 20:23.266 --> 20:26.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% So I'm old so I can't put a goal out there too far, 20:26.733 --> 20:30.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% but let's say 2035, I hope I'm still alive then, 20:30.366 --> 20:32.100 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% what do you see? 20:32.100 --> 20:35.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Percentage of EVs, or hybrids even, 20:35.033 --> 20:38.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% in the U.S. in 2035 and percentage globally? 20:38.600 --> 20:40.966 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Are you asking market share or are you asking fleet? 20:40.966 --> 20:41.900 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Fleet. 20:41.900 --> 20:43.900 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% Not aspirational. 20:43.900 --> 20:45.733 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% What do you actually think it'll be? 20:45.733 --> 20:47.700 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - I think it's still probably gonna be pretty small. 20:47.700 --> 20:48.966 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - Do you? - Yeah. 20:48.966 --> 20:53.133 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% Because even if we get all new vehicle sales to be electric, 20:53.133 --> 20:55.133 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% that doesn't mean anything for 20:55.133 --> 20:56.533 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% the existing fleet that we have. 20:56.533 --> 20:57.566 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - They last 20 years. 20:57.566 --> 20:58.533 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Absolutely. 20:58.533 --> 21:00.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% So we have to be thinking forward 21:00.033 --> 21:03.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% 40 years ahead when we do actually transition 21:03.333 --> 21:05.133 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% all those gasoline vehicles off the road 21:05.133 --> 21:08.200 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% and create the new used vehicle market that's all electric. 21:08.200 --> 21:09.033 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Same? 21:09.033 --> 21:10.166 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Yeah, 21:10.166 --> 21:12.333 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I would really be going out on a limb to put a number 21:12.333 --> 21:13.600 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% out there, but I will. 21:13.600 --> 21:17.700 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I mean, if we get to 20% of the global fleet by then, 21:17.700 --> 21:19.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% it would be just an absolute miracle. 21:19.433 --> 21:24.333 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I mean, we're talking about, you know, tens, you know, 21:24.333 --> 21:26.533 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% in the teens or 10% of the 21:26.533 --> 21:29.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% global fleet being electric by 2035. 21:29.500 --> 21:31.033 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% And, yeah, I mean, 21:31.033 --> 21:33.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% hopefully that's gonna have a lot of the positive 21:33.433 --> 21:36.400 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% benefits that particularly Beia's been outlining in terms 21:36.400 --> 21:38.433 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% of innovation and economies of scale. 21:38.433 --> 21:40.166 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% And even more importantly, 21:40.166 --> 21:44.266 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I think we're gonna learn about some of the, you know, 21:44.266 --> 21:47.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% risks that currently we just need to see 21:47.100 --> 21:49.200 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% what happens before we know 21:49.200 --> 21:53.300 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% the extent of them and then we have to be able to pivot, 21:53.300 --> 21:54.966 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% you know, if necessary. 21:54.966 --> 21:57.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - And led by China, the EU and the U.S., 21:57.433 --> 21:58.633 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% that's where the big growth is. 21:58.633 --> 21:59.700 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% And good. 21:59.700 --> 22:01.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% You know, we are the biggest emitters. 22:01.633 --> 22:03.066 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% So, let's do that. 22:03.066 --> 22:04.933 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Any thoughts that we haven't touched on, Beia, 22:04.933 --> 22:06.566 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% that you'd like to share? 22:06.566 --> 22:08.266 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% Any final things? 22:08.266 --> 22:09.766 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% Any topic? 22:09.766 --> 22:11.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Yeah, I guess one of the things that 22:11.433 --> 22:14.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% I wanted to mention is the ability 22:14.233 --> 22:16.766 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% for EVs to be a really big resource 22:16.766 --> 22:18.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% just because of the batteries, right? 22:18.966 --> 22:21.233 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Imagine if we were able to coordinate all of the 22:21.233 --> 22:23.166 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% electric vehicles that are sitting in the garage 22:23.166 --> 22:24.433 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% that are plugged in 22:24.433 --> 22:27.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and we can use them for voltage regulation, 22:27.700 --> 22:29.333 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% for grid reliability, 22:29.333 --> 22:30.833 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% for renewables integration. 22:30.833 --> 22:31.833 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% I mean, basically, 22:31.833 --> 22:34.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% what we're talking about is a massive distributed 22:34.766 --> 22:36.966 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% battery stock. 22:36.966 --> 22:38.566 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And if we can really leverage that, 22:38.566 --> 22:41.200 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I think we could get a lot out of having these vehicles 22:41.200 --> 22:43.533 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% in the garages. 22:43.533 --> 22:46.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% That does require significant changes 22:46.900 --> 22:50.366 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% in terms of how the vehicles are allowed to inject 22:50.366 --> 22:53.700 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% back into the grid, this is vehicle to grid technology, 22:53.700 --> 22:59.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and a lot of warranties are actually voided 22:59.000 --> 23:00.333 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% if you inject... 23:00.333 --> 23:01.700 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - If you allow that. - Yeah. 23:01.700 --> 23:05.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% If you do what's called V to G or vehicle to grid, 23:05.066 --> 23:07.433 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% your battery warranty is voided. 23:07.433 --> 23:09.700 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% And so that is changing now. 23:09.700 --> 23:12.700 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% But understanding how we can leverage these vehicles to 23:12.700 --> 23:16.933 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% really be able to have this massive distributed battery 23:16.933 --> 23:19.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that can help us get to a renewable future 23:19.766 --> 23:21.933 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% I think is gonna be a key factor 23:21.933 --> 23:25.466 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% in making the transition to electric much more efficient. 23:25.466 --> 23:26.233 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - Interesting. 23:26.233 --> 23:27.033 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% Any final thoughts? 23:27.033 --> 23:28.066 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% Something we missed or? 23:28.066 --> 23:29.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% - I wanna zoom out a little bit. 23:29.833 --> 23:34.933 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% One of the trends in recent years is the onshoring 23:34.933 --> 23:37.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and reshoring of economic activity. 23:37.900 --> 23:39.400 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% Beia mentioned it in the context 23:39.400 --> 23:42.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% of needing domestic battery production, 23:42.300 --> 23:45.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but we're seeing this in many areas of the economy. 23:45.033 --> 23:47.133 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And I just wanna flag this as something that I think is 23:47.133 --> 23:50.500 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% gonna be increasingly important over the next, you know, 23:50.500 --> 23:53.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% decade or even longer until this trend reverses. 23:53.866 --> 23:57.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% We have benefited for the last 50 to 70 years 23:57.533 --> 24:00.366 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% of integrating women into the workforce, 24:00.366 --> 24:02.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% the Chinese labor force in the workforce, 24:02.266 --> 24:05.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% expanding trade flows so that we're 24:05.066 --> 24:08.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% sourcing our materials from the cheapest places. 24:08.433 --> 24:09.966 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% We're backpedaling on that now 24:09.966 --> 24:11.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and it's going to affect the EV transition, 24:11.966 --> 24:14.933 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% it's gonna affect the energy transition. 24:14.933 --> 24:17.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% I think we just need to keep an eye on that. 24:17.866 --> 24:19.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - And when I travel around the world, which is often, 24:19.966 --> 24:22.833 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% I often hear, man, if the U.S. and China can't get along, 24:22.833 --> 24:25.033 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% we're all stuffed, you know? 24:25.033 --> 24:27.500 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And that's such a big piece of things. 24:27.500 --> 24:30.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Well, look, Scott Tinker, "Energy Switch." 24:30.333 --> 24:31.300 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% Thank you both. 24:31.300 --> 24:32.166 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% This was terrific. 24:32.166 --> 24:33.233 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - Thank you for having me. 24:33.233 --> 24:34.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - I really appreciate your candor, your dialogue. 24:34.866 --> 24:35.933 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% - Thanks, Scott. 24:35.933 --> 24:37.100 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - And your knowledge. 24:37.100 --> 24:38.866 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% So thanks for sharing it with us. 24:39.333 --> 24:41.133 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Some U.S. states now have 24:41.133 --> 24:43.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% or are considering mandates that all 24:43.466 --> 24:46.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% new cars must be electric by a certain date, 24:46.833 --> 24:48.500 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% but our guests felt that mandates 24:48.500 --> 24:51.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% could have unintended consequences. 24:51.100 --> 24:52.200 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% Instead, 24:52.200 --> 24:55.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% they suggested other options to reduce CO2 emissions, 24:55.133 --> 24:58.266 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% such as higher fuel efficiency standards 24:58.266 --> 25:01.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and/or taxing gasoline cars to reduce their use, 25:01.733 --> 25:03.933 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% incentives for public transport, 25:03.933 --> 25:07.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% plug-in hybrids, fuel cells, and CNG. 25:07.233 --> 25:09.866 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% They'd like to see more affordable electric cars, 25:09.866 --> 25:12.200 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% even if that meant lower range. 25:12.200 --> 25:15.733 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% More charging stations could alleviate range anxiety, 25:15.733 --> 25:16.900 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% though they disagreed whether 25:16.900 --> 25:19.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% the government should subsidize them. 25:19.333 --> 25:20.666 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% Both think we'll need to upgrade 25:20.666 --> 25:23.733 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% the electric grid to handle more home charging 25:23.733 --> 25:26.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and reduce electricity generation emissions 25:26.333 --> 25:28.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% if electric cars are to fulfill their 25:28.100 --> 25:30.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% emissions reduction potential. 25:30.400 --> 25:31.566 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% Surprisingly, 25:31.566 --> 25:34.366 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% both guests thought that global electric car penetration 25:34.366 --> 25:36.700 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% will still be low in 10 years, 25:36.700 --> 25:38.500 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% less than 20%. 25:38.500 --> 25:40.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But progress could bring improved technology 25:40.966 --> 25:42.533 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% and economies of scale. 25:44.000 --> 25:53.000 align:left position:47.5% line:89% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 25:53.000 --> 26:02.066 align:left position:47.5% line:89% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:02.066 --> 26:11.333 align:left position:47.5% line:89% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:12.300 --> 26:13.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 26:13.733 --> 26:16.766 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% was provided in part by 26:16.766 --> 26:19.333 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% the University of Texas at Austin, 26:19.333 --> 26:21.800 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% leading research in energy and the environment 26:21.800 --> 26:23.666 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% for a better tomorrow. 26:23.666 --> 26:26.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% What starts here changes the world. 26:27.433 --> 26:30.933 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And by EarthX, an international nonprofit 26:30.933 --> 26:33.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% working towards a more sustainable future. 26:33.600 --> 26:36.266 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% See more at earthx.org.