1 00:00:00,733 --> 00:00:01,866 [Scott] In this episode, 2 00:00:01,866 --> 00:00:03,300 we'll conclude our discussion 3 00:00:03,300 --> 00:00:06,266 of the benefits and challenges of electric cars. 4 00:00:06,266 --> 00:00:08,966 - Electric vehicles are gonna be a really important part 5 00:00:08,966 --> 00:00:10,700 of the energy transition, 6 00:00:10,700 --> 00:00:13,600 but the way that we go about doing this matters. 7 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,066 Subsidies have unintended consequences 8 00:00:16,066 --> 00:00:17,833 that are completely predictable. 9 00:00:17,833 --> 00:00:20,500 You know, what happens in the U.S., it matters, 10 00:00:20,500 --> 00:00:21,733 but we're a small share 11 00:00:21,733 --> 00:00:24,166 and shrinking share of global emissions. 12 00:00:24,166 --> 00:00:26,466 - I think an electric future is 13 00:00:26,466 --> 00:00:28,900 one of the best options out there right now, 14 00:00:28,900 --> 00:00:31,233 but there's a lot that we could do differently. 15 00:00:31,233 --> 00:00:33,466 Incentives should not be tied to range. 16 00:00:33,466 --> 00:00:35,133 That is gonna be really challenging 17 00:00:35,133 --> 00:00:38,033 in our transition to electrification. 18 00:00:38,033 --> 00:00:40,100 [Scott] Next on "Energy Switch," 19 00:00:40,100 --> 00:00:42,766 electric cars, pros and cons, 20 00:00:42,766 --> 00:00:44,166 part two. 21 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:47,033 [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 22 00:00:47,033 --> 00:00:50,166 was provided in part by 23 00:00:50,166 --> 00:00:52,666 the University of Texas at Austin, 24 00:00:52,666 --> 00:00:55,166 leading research in energy and the environment 25 00:00:55,166 --> 00:00:56,966 for a better tomorrow. 26 00:00:56,966 --> 00:00:59,700 What starts here changes the world. 27 00:01:00,733 --> 00:01:04,366 And by EarthX, an international nonprofit 28 00:01:04,366 --> 00:01:07,066 working towards a more sustainable future. 29 00:01:07,066 --> 00:01:09,900 See more at earthx.org. 30 00:01:10,233 --> 00:01:11,600 [upbeat music] 31 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:12,766 - I'm Scott Tinker, 32 00:01:12,766 --> 00:01:14,900 and I'm an energy scientist. 33 00:01:14,900 --> 00:01:16,533 I work in the field, 34 00:01:16,533 --> 00:01:17,633 lead research, 35 00:01:17,633 --> 00:01:19,400 speak around the world, 36 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:20,466 write articles, 37 00:01:20,466 --> 00:01:23,400 and make films about energy. 38 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,100 This show brings together leading experts 39 00:01:26,100 --> 00:01:29,100 on vital topics in energy and climate. 40 00:01:29,100 --> 00:01:30,966 They may have different perspectives, 41 00:01:30,966 --> 00:01:33,933 but my goal is to learn, and illuminate, 42 00:01:33,933 --> 00:01:37,300 and bring diverging views together towards solutions. 43 00:01:38,100 --> 00:01:40,600 Welcome to the "Energy Switch." 44 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:43,666 In part one of this episode, 45 00:01:43,666 --> 00:01:46,966 we talked about how electric cars have become popular, 46 00:01:46,966 --> 00:01:49,666 but with some issues regarding their subsidies. 47 00:01:49,666 --> 00:01:52,300 The metals and minerals used to make their batteries 48 00:01:52,300 --> 00:01:54,433 and the electricity that runs them, 49 00:01:54,433 --> 00:01:58,766 which still comes largely from CO2-emitting sources. 50 00:01:58,766 --> 00:02:03,000 In this episode, we'll talk about electric car mandates, 51 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,233 upgrades to the grid required to charge more of them, 52 00:02:06,233 --> 00:02:09,366 and other technologies that could reduce emissions. 53 00:02:09,366 --> 00:02:11,333 Again with, 54 00:02:11,333 --> 00:02:12,733 David Rapson, 55 00:02:12,733 --> 00:02:14,500 he's an energy economist for the 56 00:02:14,500 --> 00:02:16,900 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 57 00:02:16,900 --> 00:02:19,466 and the Chancellor's Leadership Professor of Economics 58 00:02:19,466 --> 00:02:21,966 at the University of California, Davis. 59 00:02:22,700 --> 00:02:26,133 Beia Spiller is a fellow at Resources for the Future 60 00:02:26,133 --> 00:02:29,000 where she directs their transportation program. 61 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:29,866 Before that, 62 00:02:29,866 --> 00:02:31,400 she was lead senior economist 63 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,233 at the Environmental Defense Fund. 64 00:02:34,300 --> 00:02:36,600 On this episode of "Energy Switch," 65 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,033 electric cars, pros and cons, 66 00:02:39,033 --> 00:02:40,333 part two. 67 00:02:40,866 --> 00:02:43,000 - So let's talk about mandates a little bit. 68 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,533 Where are these mandates coming from in the U.S.? 69 00:02:45,533 --> 00:02:46,733 - So in the U.S., 70 00:02:46,733 --> 00:02:50,300 we have state level mandates from California and New York 71 00:02:50,300 --> 00:02:52,900 that are requiring no new 72 00:02:52,900 --> 00:02:56,633 internal combustion engine vehicle sales after 2035. 73 00:02:56,633 --> 00:02:59,400 At the federal level, there's some fleet mandates. 74 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:03,433 So the federal fleets vehicles need to go electric. 75 00:03:03,433 --> 00:03:05,400 And then there's cities who are starting 76 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,666 to mandate some of their fleets 77 00:03:08,666 --> 00:03:10,833 more on the medium, heavy duty vehicle side. 78 00:03:10,833 --> 00:03:13,266 School buses, transit buses. 79 00:03:13,266 --> 00:03:15,966 USPS, for example, is going all electric. 80 00:03:15,966 --> 00:03:19,133 So there's a lot of movement at the big fleet level 81 00:03:19,133 --> 00:03:20,433 to go electric. - Interesting. 82 00:03:20,433 --> 00:03:22,300 And even California, you can't sell them, 83 00:03:22,300 --> 00:03:23,800 but you could still drive them. 84 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:24,700 [Beia] That's right. 85 00:03:24,700 --> 00:03:26,566 - Or buy them in Nevada I guess. 86 00:03:26,566 --> 00:03:29,100 - Yes, absolutely. 87 00:03:29,100 --> 00:03:31,666 - Listen, mandates are not the way to go. 88 00:03:31,666 --> 00:03:35,400 We know a lot about how to affect change. 89 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,333 And I think let's just look at Norway 90 00:03:38,333 --> 00:03:41,733 because I think this is a really nice model to consider here. 91 00:03:41,733 --> 00:03:43,033 So, in Norway, 92 00:03:43,033 --> 00:03:45,700 they're not subsidizing, they're not banning. 93 00:03:45,700 --> 00:03:49,166 What they're doing is they're taxing gasoline cars 94 00:03:49,166 --> 00:03:51,633 and they're exempting EVs from that. 95 00:03:51,633 --> 00:03:54,733 And they've got over 90% market share of EVs 96 00:03:54,733 --> 00:03:57,133 in their new vehicle sales there. 97 00:03:57,133 --> 00:04:00,366 And the subsidies are more along the lines of allowing 98 00:04:00,366 --> 00:04:04,833 free driving and HOV lanes and, you know, things like that. 99 00:04:04,833 --> 00:04:05,800 - Perks. 100 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:07,000 - Yeah, they're perks. 101 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,833 The main financial incentive is the tax on gasoline cars, 102 00:04:10,833 --> 00:04:14,133 which by the way, this is exactly what we want. 103 00:04:14,133 --> 00:04:17,333 The whole purpose of this is to reduce pollution 104 00:04:17,333 --> 00:04:19,533 and you do that by reducing the ownership 105 00:04:19,533 --> 00:04:21,500 and driving of gasoline cars. 106 00:04:21,500 --> 00:04:23,866 Taxing them seems like a much better idea than 107 00:04:23,866 --> 00:04:25,666 subsidizing the alternative. 108 00:04:25,666 --> 00:04:28,100 But you mentioned two important pressure relief valves. 109 00:04:28,100 --> 00:04:29,533 And to the extent 110 00:04:29,533 --> 00:04:30,866 there are mandates that are being 111 00:04:30,866 --> 00:04:32,700 considered and any policy makers who are considering 112 00:04:32,700 --> 00:04:35,266 mandates, I'm looking at the camera, you know, 113 00:04:35,266 --> 00:04:37,066 we need pressure relief valves. 114 00:04:37,066 --> 00:04:41,133 So, you know, maybe a high fee for selling a gasoline car, 115 00:04:41,133 --> 00:04:42,733 but not banning it outright, 116 00:04:42,733 --> 00:04:45,866 allowing imports from adjacent states, or, you know, 117 00:04:45,866 --> 00:04:49,166 allowing old gasoline cars to stay on the road. 118 00:04:49,166 --> 00:04:51,700 Because if it's the case that the use case for gasoline is 119 00:04:51,700 --> 00:04:54,700 still strong in many cases, if you ban that, 120 00:04:54,700 --> 00:04:58,233 there's gonna be really a lot of dissatisfaction. 121 00:04:58,233 --> 00:05:00,000 - And what I'm really concerned about 122 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:04,033 is the distributional effects of this, and particularly, 123 00:05:04,033 --> 00:05:06,600 where will these old gasoline vehicles be driven? 124 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:09,100 Are we gonna see much more concentration of these gasoline 125 00:05:09,100 --> 00:05:10,966 vehicles in lower income, 126 00:05:10,966 --> 00:05:12,900 disadvantaged communities 127 00:05:12,900 --> 00:05:16,700 and continue to perpetuate the harm that transportation 128 00:05:16,700 --> 00:05:18,633 pollution has on these communities? 129 00:05:18,633 --> 00:05:21,166 So I think that this is a challenge 130 00:05:21,166 --> 00:05:23,433 that we need to seriously think about 131 00:05:23,433 --> 00:05:25,366 and put our heads together to find a solution for. 132 00:05:25,366 --> 00:05:26,500 - Absolutely, I mean, 133 00:05:26,500 --> 00:05:30,466 maybe you go to cities where EVs make a lot of sense 134 00:05:30,466 --> 00:05:32,833 and start to try to implement some of these programs 135 00:05:32,833 --> 00:05:35,033 with the benefits falling to 136 00:05:35,033 --> 00:05:37,200 those who can least afford it. 137 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:38,700 Because you go up, you know, 138 00:05:38,700 --> 00:05:41,700 from $2.50 a gallon to $3 a gallon for gasoline 139 00:05:41,700 --> 00:05:44,733 and it hurts people who can't afford that. 140 00:05:44,733 --> 00:05:45,866 - Absolutely. 141 00:05:45,866 --> 00:05:49,833 These distributional issues, they're very important. 142 00:05:49,833 --> 00:05:53,266 I think it's something that we always struggle with, 143 00:05:53,266 --> 00:05:56,000 whether it's in the context of climate policy 144 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,200 or electric vehicles or just in general when thinking about 145 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,033 the well-being of society, 146 00:06:00,033 --> 00:06:02,200 but I think we need to figure out how to do a better job. 147 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:06,266 And I don't think that that should stop us from doing 148 00:06:06,266 --> 00:06:08,700 what's right for the environment. 149 00:06:08,700 --> 00:06:13,200 - Could that money effort be spent on other technologies? 150 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,100 Could it be done differently 151 00:06:15,100 --> 00:06:17,333 for a similar effect on the emissions? 152 00:06:17,333 --> 00:06:19,766 - So I think one type of technology, 153 00:06:19,766 --> 00:06:22,733 which I really would've liked to see advance more, 154 00:06:22,733 --> 00:06:27,433 is just the improvement of the least efficient vehicles. 155 00:06:27,433 --> 00:06:29,766 So taking a 10-mile-per-gallon vehicle, 156 00:06:29,766 --> 00:06:32,733 replacing with a 15-mile-per-gallon vehicle 157 00:06:32,733 --> 00:06:35,466 will get you more gasoline savings 158 00:06:35,466 --> 00:06:38,100 than replacing a 25-mile- per-gallon vehicle 159 00:06:38,100 --> 00:06:39,500 with a 100-mile-per-gallon vehicle. 160 00:06:39,500 --> 00:06:40,533 - Yeah, yeah. 161 00:06:40,533 --> 00:06:43,266 - The efficiency standards set by the EPA, 162 00:06:43,266 --> 00:06:45,733 they have differing standards for different vehicles. 163 00:06:45,733 --> 00:06:48,700 So they have much more stringent standards for the 164 00:06:48,700 --> 00:06:50,866 small cars that are much more efficient. 165 00:06:50,866 --> 00:06:52,866 It should be the opposite, and yet, 166 00:06:52,866 --> 00:06:54,800 what's happening within the manufacturers, 167 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,366 because they're going electric, 168 00:06:56,366 --> 00:06:58,466 they're not taking those efforts 169 00:06:58,466 --> 00:06:59,900 to actually improve the bottom. 170 00:06:59,900 --> 00:07:02,400 They're relying upon EVs to get 171 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:05,100 to that efficiency standard average. 172 00:07:05,100 --> 00:07:06,500 - Same money and effort, 173 00:07:06,500 --> 00:07:08,000 different technologies. 174 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:11,200 - Hydrogen is one area where we need to continue to innovate. 175 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,633 And I think the other main area is in carbon capture. 176 00:07:14,633 --> 00:07:15,466 I mean, 177 00:07:15,466 --> 00:07:17,300 how great would it be if we could 178 00:07:17,300 --> 00:07:19,366 suck carbon outta the atmosphere? 179 00:07:19,366 --> 00:07:21,566 Currently, there are pilots that are doing this at a 180 00:07:21,566 --> 00:07:24,966 few hundred dollars per, you know, ton of CO2. 181 00:07:24,966 --> 00:07:27,666 And a lot of the policies we're implementing, you know, 182 00:07:27,666 --> 00:07:29,900 that are indirect costs a lot more than that. 183 00:07:29,900 --> 00:07:33,100 So, you know, if we can scale carbon capture, 184 00:07:33,100 --> 00:07:37,266 that just frees us from so many of the challenges, 185 00:07:37,266 --> 00:07:39,633 not least of which is the collective action problem 186 00:07:39,633 --> 00:07:41,466 of getting the rest of the world to do this. 187 00:07:41,466 --> 00:07:43,400 But, yeah, we need to continue to innovate 188 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:47,300 and we can't allow the electrification 189 00:07:47,300 --> 00:07:51,066 aspirations to reduce the amount of innovation 190 00:07:51,066 --> 00:07:52,866 that's happening elsewhere because I think 191 00:07:52,866 --> 00:07:55,066 there are risks that are undervalued here 192 00:07:55,066 --> 00:07:57,000 and we're gonna need these other technologies. 193 00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:58,200 - Yeah. 194 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,500 And I think that we need to take a multi-prong approach. 195 00:08:00,500 --> 00:08:02,600 There isn't just one silver bullet 196 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,066 that's going to fix everything. 197 00:08:04,066 --> 00:08:06,266 We need to make sure that public transit 198 00:08:06,266 --> 00:08:10,600 is accessible and fast for disadvantaged communities. 199 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:14,666 We need to be promoting the use of electric bikes 200 00:08:14,666 --> 00:08:16,866 and just bicycling, walking, 201 00:08:16,866 --> 00:08:19,333 making cities more walkable. 202 00:08:19,333 --> 00:08:20,733 And that will have, you know, 203 00:08:20,733 --> 00:08:23,966 distributional benefits as well as reduced emissions. 204 00:08:23,966 --> 00:08:25,233 - Right, right. 205 00:08:25,233 --> 00:08:29,833 Dave, you've mentioned a couple times the cheap gasoline tank. 206 00:08:29,833 --> 00:08:31,766 I mean, does the hybrid make sense? 207 00:08:32,866 --> 00:08:34,066 Some of both on the same car? 208 00:08:34,066 --> 00:08:35,233 - Oh, absolutely. 209 00:08:35,233 --> 00:08:37,833 I think that the hybrid is a great option in particular 210 00:08:37,833 --> 00:08:41,133 where there's cold weather and where the grid is dirty, 211 00:08:41,133 --> 00:08:42,700 both from a performance perspective 212 00:08:42,700 --> 00:08:45,600 and also from an emissions perspective. 213 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,533 I think hybrids can play a real role. 214 00:08:47,533 --> 00:08:50,666 - Well I think what's promising about plug-in hybrids 215 00:08:50,666 --> 00:08:54,100 is the ability to be able to switch back and forth. 216 00:08:54,100 --> 00:08:56,533 Couldn't we envision an electric vehicle 217 00:08:56,533 --> 00:08:58,233 that has more range, 218 00:08:58,233 --> 00:09:01,400 but then has a very small gasoline tank? 219 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:03,400 So that range anxiety is gone. 220 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:04,800 You run out of electricity. 221 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:08,733 You can just, you know, use that extra gallon of gasoline. 222 00:09:08,733 --> 00:09:10,333 Rather, the plug-in hybrids right now 223 00:09:10,333 --> 00:09:12,433 are set up that it's mostly gasoline 224 00:09:12,433 --> 00:09:14,333 and they're mainly driven with gasoline. 225 00:09:14,333 --> 00:09:15,533 And I think that's the challenge. 226 00:09:15,533 --> 00:09:17,366 And then you have this 25 mile range. 227 00:09:17,366 --> 00:09:20,366 So will we see more innovation about what types of plug-in 228 00:09:20,366 --> 00:09:21,633 hybrids are being developed? 229 00:09:21,633 --> 00:09:22,766 I really hope so. 230 00:09:22,766 --> 00:09:24,466 - And you can shift some of the weight, too. 231 00:09:24,466 --> 00:09:27,300 I mean, a little less weight in the battery, gasoline. 232 00:09:27,300 --> 00:09:30,033 So that brings this kind of to this range discussion, right? 233 00:09:30,033 --> 00:09:31,666 Most people don't really need as much range 234 00:09:31,666 --> 00:09:33,066 as they think they need. 235 00:09:33,066 --> 00:09:35,400 So why are we so focused on that? 236 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:36,866 - I think early on, 237 00:09:36,866 --> 00:09:38,600 there was some survey evidence that came out 238 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:40,133 about range anxiety 239 00:09:40,133 --> 00:09:43,366 and then that became adopted as the narrative. 240 00:09:43,366 --> 00:09:44,600 But, yeah, I mean, 241 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:48,833 it has led to subsidy programs being linked to battery size, 242 00:09:48,833 --> 00:09:51,366 and, you know, you're only eligible for a subsidy 243 00:09:51,366 --> 00:09:55,200 if your EV car's battery is big enough. 244 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,433 I think that's unfortunate because one of the things 245 00:09:57,433 --> 00:10:00,466 we wanna be promoting is, you know, smaller, 246 00:10:00,466 --> 00:10:02,433 less expensive EVs for people 247 00:10:02,433 --> 00:10:05,600 who don't need big, long range trips. 248 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:07,266 - I fully agree with you on that point 249 00:10:07,266 --> 00:10:09,466 and I think there needs to be more variety. 250 00:10:09,466 --> 00:10:12,400 I'd like to go and be able to purchase a slightly cheaper 251 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,666 car that has a lower range. 252 00:10:14,666 --> 00:10:16,266 Give me those options. 253 00:10:16,266 --> 00:10:18,700 But if those subsidies are forcing manufacturers 254 00:10:18,700 --> 00:10:20,866 to make the batteries longer and longer range, 255 00:10:20,866 --> 00:10:23,366 I'm not gonna have that opportunity for price savings. 256 00:10:23,366 --> 00:10:24,400 - That makes sense. 257 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,700 - And, also, the charging station investments. 258 00:10:26,700 --> 00:10:29,633 You know, if we have charging stations in many places, 259 00:10:29,633 --> 00:10:33,433 just as many as we have gasoline fueling stations, 260 00:10:33,433 --> 00:10:35,300 that range anxiety should go down. 261 00:10:35,300 --> 00:10:36,233 - Yeah. 262 00:10:36,233 --> 00:10:38,466 How do we start to see this network grow? 263 00:10:38,466 --> 00:10:42,133 Should the people benefiting from EVs pay for it 264 00:10:42,133 --> 00:10:44,500 or should this be a federally paid for thing? 265 00:10:44,500 --> 00:10:45,533 - Well, right now, 266 00:10:45,533 --> 00:10:47,800 there's a huge amount of federal funds to expand 267 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:49,000 the charging network. 268 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:53,333 There's $6.5 billion between the Inflation Reduction Act 269 00:10:53,333 --> 00:10:55,133 and the infrastructure bill. 270 00:10:55,133 --> 00:10:56,933 - So that's a everybody pays model? 271 00:10:56,933 --> 00:10:58,100 Taxes. - Yeah. 272 00:10:58,100 --> 00:10:59,533 I mean, so it comes out of taxes. 273 00:10:59,533 --> 00:11:01,600 And obviously, you know, back to your point about whether 274 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:03,166 or not taxes are regressive, well, 275 00:11:03,166 --> 00:11:04,900 we can have higher taxes on the wealthy 276 00:11:04,900 --> 00:11:06,366 to be able to subsidize this. 277 00:11:06,366 --> 00:11:08,966 It doesn't have to be a flat tax across everybody. 278 00:11:08,966 --> 00:11:10,766 - I think we're getting way ahead of ourselves on the 279 00:11:10,766 --> 00:11:12,133 infrastructure piece. 280 00:11:12,133 --> 00:11:15,633 I think we should not be subsidizing massive rollout 281 00:11:15,633 --> 00:11:18,733 of EV charging stations, and it's for two reasons. 282 00:11:18,733 --> 00:11:19,933 One, 283 00:11:19,933 --> 00:11:21,600 I think the market is gonna be really good at providing 284 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:23,033 those when they're needed. 285 00:11:23,033 --> 00:11:24,400 And right now, 286 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,800 if we're building out a lot of charging stations where there 287 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,766 aren't a lot of EVs, that just doesn't make sense. 288 00:11:29,766 --> 00:11:31,100 - You're such an economist. 289 00:11:31,100 --> 00:11:32,333 [group laughing] 290 00:11:32,333 --> 00:11:33,633 - Guilty as charged. - Market. 291 00:11:33,633 --> 00:11:35,933 - No, I disagree with that statement. 292 00:11:35,933 --> 00:11:38,533 Right now, we're facing a chicken and egg problem, right? 293 00:11:38,533 --> 00:11:41,433 Which comes first, the vehicle or the charging station? 294 00:11:41,433 --> 00:11:44,233 And so if you don't have charging stations 295 00:11:44,233 --> 00:11:46,433 in many locations where people don't have a garage, 296 00:11:46,433 --> 00:11:48,166 think about New York City. 297 00:11:48,166 --> 00:11:49,966 The majority of us who have cars 298 00:11:49,966 --> 00:11:51,500 do not have anywhere to charge it. 299 00:11:51,500 --> 00:11:52,833 - You're right. 300 00:11:52,833 --> 00:11:55,400 Why wouldn't a company just build out 301 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,800 a monopoly charging station network in Manhattan? 302 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:00,600 They could make a lot of money if you're right. 303 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:01,866 You know, there's no reason the government 304 00:12:01,866 --> 00:12:03,033 needs to be involved in that. 305 00:12:03,033 --> 00:12:04,033 - Well, I mean, 306 00:12:04,033 --> 00:12:05,833 one of the concerns really has to do 307 00:12:05,833 --> 00:12:07,433 with interoperability, right? 308 00:12:07,433 --> 00:12:08,566 So for example, 309 00:12:08,566 --> 00:12:12,533 the Tesla supercharging stations that were only available 310 00:12:12,533 --> 00:12:14,033 to Tesla drivers. 311 00:12:14,033 --> 00:12:15,000 - Except for now. 312 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:16,166 - Except for now, right? 313 00:12:16,166 --> 00:12:20,466 They opened it up to everybody, which I think is huge. 314 00:12:20,466 --> 00:12:22,800 That's so beneficial because could you imagine like going to 315 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:24,666 a gas station and you, oh, 316 00:12:24,666 --> 00:12:27,400 you have the square plug instead of the rectangular plug? 317 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:28,800 - But it's a fascinating dialogue 318 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:31,100 we probably shouldn't dive too deeply into, 319 00:12:31,100 --> 00:12:33,166 but Elon took a big risk, 320 00:12:33,166 --> 00:12:34,866 spent a lot of money, built a system. 321 00:12:34,866 --> 00:12:37,933 Now he's being essentially told after a trip to DC, 322 00:12:37,933 --> 00:12:39,100 you gotta open it up to everybody. 323 00:12:39,100 --> 00:12:40,000 - Well, he should! 324 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:41,200 There's no reason-- 325 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:42,666 - It's a company, it's a private sector. 326 00:12:42,666 --> 00:12:44,366 - Yes, but there is no reason, 327 00:12:44,366 --> 00:12:47,666 there's no way we would allow gasoline stations to have 328 00:12:47,666 --> 00:12:50,166 plugs that are specific to a certain type of vehicle, 329 00:12:50,166 --> 00:12:51,833 and yet we're allowing this monopoly to happen. 330 00:12:51,833 --> 00:12:53,233 - But those weren't by the government. 331 00:12:53,233 --> 00:12:54,300 - Well. 332 00:12:54,300 --> 00:12:57,866 - When we switched from the horse to the car, 333 00:12:57,866 --> 00:12:59,233 there were no gasoline stations. 334 00:12:59,233 --> 00:13:00,266 - Right. 335 00:13:00,266 --> 00:13:02,000 - It took about 15 years 'cause 336 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,400 the product was so much better. 337 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:05,900 Is it so much better? 338 00:13:05,900 --> 00:13:08,833 Is the EV so much better than a gasoline car? 339 00:13:08,833 --> 00:13:12,133 - So people are advocating for complete electrification 340 00:13:12,133 --> 00:13:13,466 have in the back of their mind 341 00:13:13,466 --> 00:13:16,333 this S-curve of adoption where, you know, 342 00:13:16,333 --> 00:13:18,266 right now you've got these early adopters 343 00:13:18,266 --> 00:13:20,166 and we're at this inflection point where maybe 344 00:13:20,166 --> 00:13:21,733 it's gonna hit the mass market, 345 00:13:21,733 --> 00:13:23,666 and in a few years or whenever, 346 00:13:23,666 --> 00:13:25,433 it's gonna be up at 100%. 347 00:13:25,433 --> 00:13:28,700 But that model works when the product dominates. 348 00:13:28,700 --> 00:13:30,600 So we saw that in flat screen televisions, 349 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,500 we saw that in smartphones. 350 00:13:32,500 --> 00:13:34,800 Do EVs dominate gasoline cars? 351 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:35,666 I don't think so. 352 00:13:35,666 --> 00:13:36,666 They're more expensive. 353 00:13:36,666 --> 00:13:37,866 You've got, I mean, 354 00:13:37,866 --> 00:13:41,200 Beia has mentioned a whole bunch of different obstacles, 355 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:42,233 which I agree with. 356 00:13:42,233 --> 00:13:44,533 And so I think we should be open 357 00:13:44,533 --> 00:13:46,900 to the idea that we're gonna be encountering, 358 00:13:46,900 --> 00:13:49,966 we're gonna be learning about the costs and maybe we get to 359 00:13:49,966 --> 00:13:52,966 50% or 70%, or, you know, who knows, 360 00:13:52,966 --> 00:13:56,733 but there's a good chance we're not gonna get to 100%. 361 00:13:56,733 --> 00:13:59,833 - I actually do believe that EVs are a better car. 362 00:13:59,833 --> 00:14:01,600 They're more agile, 363 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:02,500 they're zippier, 364 00:14:02,500 --> 00:14:03,866 they're more fun to drive, 365 00:14:03,866 --> 00:14:05,900 they don't make any noise, 366 00:14:05,900 --> 00:14:08,166 and they don't have those terrible fumes. 367 00:14:08,166 --> 00:14:10,200 Now, the question is, 368 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:12,966 is there currently on the market enough vehicles 369 00:14:12,966 --> 00:14:14,866 that have the characteristics that we want? 370 00:14:14,866 --> 00:14:16,033 I would say no. 371 00:14:16,033 --> 00:14:17,466 But that will come. 372 00:14:17,466 --> 00:14:20,066 And so if we compare two identical vehicles, 373 00:14:20,066 --> 00:14:21,966 one which is electric and one that is not, 374 00:14:21,966 --> 00:14:23,333 the electric one dominates. 375 00:14:23,333 --> 00:14:24,666 Now, is it more expensive? 376 00:14:24,666 --> 00:14:26,100 Yes, it's more expensive. 377 00:14:26,100 --> 00:14:28,233 But that doesn't mean that it's not a better product. 378 00:14:28,233 --> 00:14:30,000 - Well that means it doesn't dominate. 379 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,266 - How do we say it's a better product? 380 00:14:32,266 --> 00:14:35,066 - Dominate means it's better in every dimension. 381 00:14:35,066 --> 00:14:36,033 And EVs are not. 382 00:14:36,033 --> 00:14:38,066 - Well, I disagree. 383 00:14:38,066 --> 00:14:40,233 - Right now, residential, you know, commercial, 384 00:14:40,233 --> 00:14:44,133 industrial are the big demands on our grid. 385 00:14:44,133 --> 00:14:47,366 If we add a transportation component to that, 386 00:14:47,366 --> 00:14:49,233 another big wedge to that, 387 00:14:49,233 --> 00:14:50,166 how do we do that? 388 00:14:50,166 --> 00:14:51,966 How do we integrate that into the grid, 389 00:14:51,966 --> 00:14:56,800 create another big source of electricity needed for this? 390 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,066 - There's two different things that we have to talk about here. 391 00:14:59,066 --> 00:15:02,333 One is the distribution grid, the wires, the poles, 392 00:15:02,333 --> 00:15:03,466 the transformers, 393 00:15:03,466 --> 00:15:05,000 all of that equipment that brings 394 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:06,766 the electricity to your home. 395 00:15:06,766 --> 00:15:08,433 That's one area that we're gonna 396 00:15:08,433 --> 00:15:10,866 have to be doing massive investments in. 397 00:15:10,866 --> 00:15:14,000 Even a few electric vehicles charging at the same time 398 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,566 within one specific location 399 00:15:16,566 --> 00:15:19,233 might require upgrades to that area. 400 00:15:19,233 --> 00:15:20,900 The second area is, of course, 401 00:15:20,900 --> 00:15:22,600 on the generation side of things. 402 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:24,466 And then the question there is really, 403 00:15:24,466 --> 00:15:27,000 how do we bring more renewables onto the grid 404 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,400 to allow for that charging to be clean? 405 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:30,866 Now the Inflation Reduction Act 406 00:15:30,866 --> 00:15:35,333 has many production and investment tax credits targeted 407 00:15:35,333 --> 00:15:36,733 towards wind and solar. 408 00:15:36,733 --> 00:15:41,733 So we will expect that generation will increase 409 00:15:41,733 --> 00:15:43,900 just naturally because of all these in investments 410 00:15:43,900 --> 00:15:45,966 in renewables there. 411 00:15:45,966 --> 00:15:48,900 - Well, I think the distinction that really needs to be 412 00:15:48,900 --> 00:15:51,900 understood here is between intermittent sources of supply, 413 00:15:51,900 --> 00:15:54,633 like wind and solar that we can't control 414 00:15:54,633 --> 00:15:55,900 when they're producing, 415 00:15:55,900 --> 00:15:58,266 and dispatchable sources of supply, 416 00:15:58,266 --> 00:16:01,266 which we can turn up when we need more energy 417 00:16:01,266 --> 00:16:03,100 and turn down when we need less. 418 00:16:03,100 --> 00:16:06,100 And so right now, you know, frankly, 419 00:16:06,100 --> 00:16:08,033 the best part of decarbonizing the grid so 420 00:16:08,033 --> 00:16:10,633 far has been switching from coal and natural gas, 421 00:16:10,633 --> 00:16:14,400 but we're trying to integrate more intermittent renewables. 422 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:15,533 And as we do that, 423 00:16:15,533 --> 00:16:17,633 I think the value of having more 424 00:16:17,633 --> 00:16:20,800 dispatchable load is gonna be very high. 425 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,700 And there, we're basically talking natural gas, 426 00:16:23,700 --> 00:16:26,200 we're talking maybe nuclear, 427 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:27,466 and we're talking batteries. 428 00:16:27,466 --> 00:16:32,066 The selection is not huge for what can meet that need. 429 00:16:32,066 --> 00:16:34,400 - And natural gas would need carbon capture. 430 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,300 - Well, to be zero carbon, it would. 431 00:16:36,300 --> 00:16:38,433 - We also have geothermal, right? 432 00:16:38,433 --> 00:16:39,600 [Scott] Yes, absolutely. 433 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:40,900 - Geothermal and hydro, 434 00:16:40,900 --> 00:16:43,500 although hydro has its issues with methane. 435 00:16:43,500 --> 00:16:46,000 - So you've mentioned a couple times, Beia, 436 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,600 that when you charge matters. 437 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:49,966 Is that a problem, opportunity? 438 00:16:49,966 --> 00:16:51,133 How do you see that? 439 00:16:51,133 --> 00:16:52,933 - One of the great things about electric vehicles 440 00:16:52,933 --> 00:16:55,300 is that the charging needs is really flexible. 441 00:16:55,300 --> 00:16:58,300 Most vehicles are not utilized 442 00:16:58,300 --> 00:17:00,066 for the large majority of the day. 443 00:17:00,066 --> 00:17:02,500 So you could imagine having the vehicle plugged in, 444 00:17:02,500 --> 00:17:03,666 but not charging, 445 00:17:03,666 --> 00:17:07,400 and then turning on and off as grid conditions change. 446 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,400 Then this will require coordination 447 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,000 'cause one of the things that happened 448 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:12,366 is some of these vehicles, 449 00:17:12,366 --> 00:17:15,733 they came with a default setting to only turn on the 450 00:17:15,733 --> 00:17:17,266 charging at midnight. 451 00:17:17,266 --> 00:17:18,900 So if you plugged it in at 6:00 PM, 452 00:17:18,900 --> 00:17:20,633 it would wait until midnight to charge, 453 00:17:20,633 --> 00:17:22,166 which on its face was an idea that 454 00:17:22,166 --> 00:17:24,700 let's charge when demand is low, 455 00:17:24,700 --> 00:17:26,766 but then all of a sudden, you have this pile up, 456 00:17:26,766 --> 00:17:28,400 this new peak at midnight. 457 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:29,833 And I think that's really problematic. 458 00:17:29,833 --> 00:17:32,533 So it does require coordination in terms of, 459 00:17:32,533 --> 00:17:35,866 can we stagger when these vehicles are being turned on? 460 00:17:35,866 --> 00:17:38,300 And there's a role for automated software 461 00:17:38,300 --> 00:17:39,500 to help us do that, 462 00:17:39,500 --> 00:17:42,300 but also for third party aggregators to help coordinate 463 00:17:42,300 --> 00:17:43,833 across different vehicle owners. 464 00:17:43,833 --> 00:17:44,833 - Right. 465 00:17:44,833 --> 00:17:48,366 Let's kind of get some closing thoughts here. 466 00:17:48,366 --> 00:17:49,833 Should we mandate EVs, 467 00:17:49,833 --> 00:17:52,033 subsidize them to encourage their adoption, 468 00:17:52,033 --> 00:17:54,300 or if we were gonna do it differently, 469 00:17:54,300 --> 00:17:55,633 how would we do that. 470 00:17:55,633 --> 00:17:59,700 Closing thoughts as you think about wrapping that up, Beia. 471 00:17:59,700 --> 00:18:03,633 - I would say that I'm very excited about the future. 472 00:18:03,633 --> 00:18:07,800 I think an electric future is one of the best options 473 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:11,466 out there right now for reducing tailpipe emissions, 474 00:18:11,466 --> 00:18:14,466 for reducing-- improving air quality, 475 00:18:14,466 --> 00:18:16,600 particularly in disadvantaged communities. 476 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,100 But there's a lot that we could do differently, right? 477 00:18:19,100 --> 00:18:22,566 For example, let's get scrappage programs. 478 00:18:22,566 --> 00:18:24,900 Some of these scrappage programs have been shown to be 479 00:18:24,900 --> 00:18:26,300 somewhat ineffective. 480 00:18:26,300 --> 00:18:27,966 Let's structure them better. 481 00:18:27,966 --> 00:18:30,000 And so as we bring more EVs in, 482 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,866 let's get those dirtiest gasoline vehicles off the road. 483 00:18:32,866 --> 00:18:35,533 And I agree with Dave in that 484 00:18:35,533 --> 00:18:37,500 we need to remove any sort of incentive 485 00:18:37,500 --> 00:18:40,666 for manufacturers to increase that battery size. 486 00:18:40,666 --> 00:18:44,100 Incentive should not be tied to range of the battery. 487 00:18:44,100 --> 00:18:45,733 That is gonna be really challenging 488 00:18:45,733 --> 00:18:48,133 in our transition to electrification. 489 00:18:48,133 --> 00:18:49,266 - So quit making it bigger when 490 00:18:49,266 --> 00:18:50,566 what we need is really smaller, lighter. 491 00:18:50,566 --> 00:18:51,866 - I think that's right. 492 00:18:51,866 --> 00:18:52,866 [Scott] Shorter. 493 00:18:52,866 --> 00:18:54,166 - Or at least variety. 494 00:18:54,166 --> 00:18:57,666 Allow people to choose the battery size that they want. 495 00:18:57,666 --> 00:19:01,766 Don't force everybody to have a 500 mile range. 496 00:19:01,766 --> 00:19:03,100 - Yeah, yeah, interesting. 497 00:19:03,100 --> 00:19:04,333 Same question. 498 00:19:04,333 --> 00:19:07,200 - Yeah, electric vehicles are gonna be a really important part 499 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:08,933 of the energy transition. 500 00:19:08,933 --> 00:19:10,266 There's no question about that. 501 00:19:10,266 --> 00:19:13,200 They are currently the most promising technology, 502 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,400 but the way that we go about doing this matters 503 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,366 and it doesn't work too well to force Americans 504 00:19:19,366 --> 00:19:22,033 to adopt something they don't want. 505 00:19:22,033 --> 00:19:24,533 Subsidies have unintended consequences 506 00:19:24,533 --> 00:19:26,833 that are completely predictable, right? 507 00:19:26,833 --> 00:19:28,833 If all we're doing is subsidizing, 508 00:19:28,833 --> 00:19:32,266 we're not creating the incentive to burn less gasoline, 509 00:19:32,266 --> 00:19:33,800 which is the main point of it. 510 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,633 And finally, you know, what happens in the U.S., it matters, 511 00:19:37,633 --> 00:19:38,933 but we're a small share 512 00:19:38,933 --> 00:19:41,466 and shrinking share of global emissions. 513 00:19:41,466 --> 00:19:44,200 And we could decarbonize entirely 514 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,266 and we wouldn't have even, you know, 515 00:19:46,266 --> 00:19:50,100 started to fix the problem globally of temperatures rising 516 00:19:50,100 --> 00:19:51,800 because the developing world 517 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,033 is now burning a lot of energy there. 518 00:19:54,033 --> 00:19:56,200 We're bringing people out of poverty, which is great, 519 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,066 and they're demanding energy services. 520 00:19:58,066 --> 00:20:01,000 We need to figure out how to get them clean energy. 521 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:02,666 And I would just ask the question, 522 00:20:02,666 --> 00:20:04,400 do we think that this electrification 523 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,266 vision that we're pursuing here in, you know, 524 00:20:07,266 --> 00:20:10,633 the wealthiest country in the world is gonna be suitable 525 00:20:10,633 --> 00:20:15,033 for African nations that, you know, are doubling in size? 526 00:20:15,033 --> 00:20:16,500 I think the answer there is 527 00:20:16,500 --> 00:20:20,466 pretty clearly no with current technologies. 528 00:20:20,466 --> 00:20:22,200 We need to really take that seriously. 529 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:23,266 - That's interesting. 530 00:20:23,266 --> 00:20:26,733 So I'm old so I can't put a goal out there too far, 531 00:20:26,733 --> 00:20:30,366 but let's say 2035, I hope I'm still alive then, 532 00:20:30,366 --> 00:20:32,100 what do you see? 533 00:20:32,100 --> 00:20:35,033 Percentage of EVs, or hybrids even, 534 00:20:35,033 --> 00:20:38,600 in the U.S. in 2035 and percentage globally? 535 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:40,966 - Are you asking market share or are you asking fleet? 536 00:20:40,966 --> 00:20:41,900 - Fleet. 537 00:20:41,900 --> 00:20:43,900 Not aspirational. 538 00:20:43,900 --> 00:20:45,733 What do you actually think it'll be? 539 00:20:45,733 --> 00:20:47,700 - I think it's still probably gonna be pretty small. 540 00:20:47,700 --> 00:20:48,966 - Do you? - Yeah. 541 00:20:48,966 --> 00:20:53,133 Because even if we get all new vehicle sales to be electric, 542 00:20:53,133 --> 00:20:55,133 that doesn't mean anything for 543 00:20:55,133 --> 00:20:56,533 the existing fleet that we have. 544 00:20:56,533 --> 00:20:57,566 - They last 20 years. 545 00:20:57,566 --> 00:20:58,533 - Absolutely. 546 00:20:58,533 --> 00:21:00,033 So we have to be thinking forward 547 00:21:00,033 --> 00:21:03,333 40 years ahead when we do actually transition 548 00:21:03,333 --> 00:21:05,133 all those gasoline vehicles off the road 549 00:21:05,133 --> 00:21:08,200 and create the new used vehicle market that's all electric. 550 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:09,033 - Same? 551 00:21:09,033 --> 00:21:10,166 - Yeah, 552 00:21:10,166 --> 00:21:12,333 I would really be going out on a limb to put a number 553 00:21:12,333 --> 00:21:13,600 out there, but I will. 554 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,700 I mean, if we get to 20% of the global fleet by then, 555 00:21:17,700 --> 00:21:19,433 it would be just an absolute miracle. 556 00:21:19,433 --> 00:21:24,333 I mean, we're talking about, you know, tens, you know, 557 00:21:24,333 --> 00:21:26,533 in the teens or 10% of the 558 00:21:26,533 --> 00:21:29,500 global fleet being electric by 2035. 559 00:21:29,500 --> 00:21:31,033 And, yeah, I mean, 560 00:21:31,033 --> 00:21:33,433 hopefully that's gonna have a lot of the positive 561 00:21:33,433 --> 00:21:36,400 benefits that particularly Beia's been outlining in terms 562 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,433 of innovation and economies of scale. 563 00:21:38,433 --> 00:21:40,166 And even more importantly, 564 00:21:40,166 --> 00:21:44,266 I think we're gonna learn about some of the, you know, 565 00:21:44,266 --> 00:21:47,100 risks that currently we just need to see 566 00:21:47,100 --> 00:21:49,200 what happens before we know 567 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:53,300 the extent of them and then we have to be able to pivot, 568 00:21:53,300 --> 00:21:54,966 you know, if necessary. 569 00:21:54,966 --> 00:21:57,433 - And led by China, the EU and the U.S., 570 00:21:57,433 --> 00:21:58,633 that's where the big growth is. 571 00:21:58,633 --> 00:21:59,700 And good. 572 00:21:59,700 --> 00:22:01,633 You know, we are the biggest emitters. 573 00:22:01,633 --> 00:22:03,066 So, let's do that. 574 00:22:03,066 --> 00:22:04,933 Any thoughts that we haven't touched on, Beia, 575 00:22:04,933 --> 00:22:06,566 that you'd like to share? 576 00:22:06,566 --> 00:22:08,266 Any final things? 577 00:22:08,266 --> 00:22:09,766 Any topic? 578 00:22:09,766 --> 00:22:11,433 - Yeah, I guess one of the things that 579 00:22:11,433 --> 00:22:14,233 I wanted to mention is the ability 580 00:22:14,233 --> 00:22:16,766 for EVs to be a really big resource 581 00:22:16,766 --> 00:22:18,966 just because of the batteries, right? 582 00:22:18,966 --> 00:22:21,233 Imagine if we were able to coordinate all of the 583 00:22:21,233 --> 00:22:23,166 electric vehicles that are sitting in the garage 584 00:22:23,166 --> 00:22:24,433 that are plugged in 585 00:22:24,433 --> 00:22:27,700 and we can use them for voltage regulation, 586 00:22:27,700 --> 00:22:29,333 for grid reliability, 587 00:22:29,333 --> 00:22:30,833 for renewables integration. 588 00:22:30,833 --> 00:22:31,833 I mean, basically, 589 00:22:31,833 --> 00:22:34,766 what we're talking about is a massive distributed 590 00:22:34,766 --> 00:22:36,966 battery stock. 591 00:22:36,966 --> 00:22:38,566 And if we can really leverage that, 592 00:22:38,566 --> 00:22:41,200 I think we could get a lot out of having these vehicles 593 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,533 in the garages. 594 00:22:43,533 --> 00:22:46,900 That does require significant changes 595 00:22:46,900 --> 00:22:50,366 in terms of how the vehicles are allowed to inject 596 00:22:50,366 --> 00:22:53,700 back into the grid, this is vehicle to grid technology, 597 00:22:53,700 --> 00:22:59,000 and a lot of warranties are actually voided 598 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:00,333 if you inject... 599 00:23:00,333 --> 00:23:01,700 - If you allow that. - Yeah. 600 00:23:01,700 --> 00:23:05,066 If you do what's called V to G or vehicle to grid, 601 00:23:05,066 --> 00:23:07,433 your battery warranty is voided. 602 00:23:07,433 --> 00:23:09,700 And so that is changing now. 603 00:23:09,700 --> 00:23:12,700 But understanding how we can leverage these vehicles to 604 00:23:12,700 --> 00:23:16,933 really be able to have this massive distributed battery 605 00:23:16,933 --> 00:23:19,766 that can help us get to a renewable future 606 00:23:19,766 --> 00:23:21,933 I think is gonna be a key factor 607 00:23:21,933 --> 00:23:25,466 in making the transition to electric much more efficient. 608 00:23:25,466 --> 00:23:26,233 - Interesting. 609 00:23:26,233 --> 00:23:27,033 Any final thoughts? 610 00:23:27,033 --> 00:23:28,066 Something we missed or? 611 00:23:28,066 --> 00:23:29,833 - I wanna zoom out a little bit. 612 00:23:29,833 --> 00:23:34,933 One of the trends in recent years is the onshoring 613 00:23:34,933 --> 00:23:37,900 and reshoring of economic activity. 614 00:23:37,900 --> 00:23:39,400 Beia mentioned it in the context 615 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,300 of needing domestic battery production, 616 00:23:42,300 --> 00:23:45,033 but we're seeing this in many areas of the economy. 617 00:23:45,033 --> 00:23:47,133 And I just wanna flag this as something that I think is 618 00:23:47,133 --> 00:23:50,500 gonna be increasingly important over the next, you know, 619 00:23:50,500 --> 00:23:53,866 decade or even longer until this trend reverses. 620 00:23:53,866 --> 00:23:57,533 We have benefited for the last 50 to 70 years 621 00:23:57,533 --> 00:24:00,366 of integrating women into the workforce, 622 00:24:00,366 --> 00:24:02,266 the Chinese labor force in the workforce, 623 00:24:02,266 --> 00:24:05,066 expanding trade flows so that we're 624 00:24:05,066 --> 00:24:08,433 sourcing our materials from the cheapest places. 625 00:24:08,433 --> 00:24:09,966 We're backpedaling on that now 626 00:24:09,966 --> 00:24:11,966 and it's going to affect the EV transition, 627 00:24:11,966 --> 00:24:14,933 it's gonna affect the energy transition. 628 00:24:14,933 --> 00:24:17,866 I think we just need to keep an eye on that. 629 00:24:17,866 --> 00:24:19,966 - And when I travel around the world, which is often, 630 00:24:19,966 --> 00:24:22,833 I often hear, man, if the U.S. and China can't get along, 631 00:24:22,833 --> 00:24:25,033 we're all stuffed, you know? 632 00:24:25,033 --> 00:24:27,500 And that's such a big piece of things. 633 00:24:27,500 --> 00:24:30,333 Well, look, Scott Tinker, "Energy Switch." 634 00:24:30,333 --> 00:24:31,300 Thank you both. 635 00:24:31,300 --> 00:24:32,166 This was terrific. 636 00:24:32,166 --> 00:24:33,233 - Thank you for having me. 637 00:24:33,233 --> 00:24:34,866 - I really appreciate your candor, your dialogue. 638 00:24:34,866 --> 00:24:35,933 - Thanks, Scott. 639 00:24:35,933 --> 00:24:37,100 - And your knowledge. 640 00:24:37,100 --> 00:24:38,866 So thanks for sharing it with us. 641 00:24:39,333 --> 00:24:41,133 Some U.S. states now have 642 00:24:41,133 --> 00:24:43,466 or are considering mandates that all 643 00:24:43,466 --> 00:24:46,833 new cars must be electric by a certain date, 644 00:24:46,833 --> 00:24:48,500 but our guests felt that mandates 645 00:24:48,500 --> 00:24:51,100 could have unintended consequences. 646 00:24:51,100 --> 00:24:52,200 Instead, 647 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,133 they suggested other options to reduce CO2 emissions, 648 00:24:55,133 --> 00:24:58,266 such as higher fuel efficiency standards 649 00:24:58,266 --> 00:25:01,733 and/or taxing gasoline cars to reduce their use, 650 00:25:01,733 --> 00:25:03,933 incentives for public transport, 651 00:25:03,933 --> 00:25:07,233 plug-in hybrids, fuel cells, and CNG. 652 00:25:07,233 --> 00:25:09,866 They'd like to see more affordable electric cars, 653 00:25:09,866 --> 00:25:12,200 even if that meant lower range. 654 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,733 More charging stations could alleviate range anxiety, 655 00:25:15,733 --> 00:25:16,900 though they disagreed whether 656 00:25:16,900 --> 00:25:19,333 the government should subsidize them. 657 00:25:19,333 --> 00:25:20,666 Both think we'll need to upgrade 658 00:25:20,666 --> 00:25:23,733 the electric grid to handle more home charging 659 00:25:23,733 --> 00:25:26,333 and reduce electricity generation emissions 660 00:25:26,333 --> 00:25:28,100 if electric cars are to fulfill their 661 00:25:28,100 --> 00:25:30,400 emissions reduction potential. 662 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:31,566 Surprisingly, 663 00:25:31,566 --> 00:25:34,366 both guests thought that global electric car penetration 664 00:25:34,366 --> 00:25:36,700 will still be low in 10 years, 665 00:25:36,700 --> 00:25:38,500 less than 20%. 666 00:25:38,500 --> 00:25:40,966 But progress could bring improved technology 667 00:25:40,966 --> 00:25:42,533 and economies of scale. 668 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:53,000 ♪ ♪ 669 00:25:53,000 --> 00:26:02,066 ♪ ♪ 670 00:26:02,066 --> 00:26:11,333 ♪ ♪ 671 00:26:12,300 --> 00:26:13,733 [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 672 00:26:13,733 --> 00:26:16,766 was provided in part by 673 00:26:16,766 --> 00:26:19,333 the University of Texas at Austin, 674 00:26:19,333 --> 00:26:21,800 leading research in energy and the environment 675 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,666 for a better tomorrow. 676 00:26:23,666 --> 00:26:26,166 What starts here changes the world. 677 00:26:27,433 --> 00:26:30,933 And by EarthX, an international nonprofit 678 00:26:30,933 --> 00:26:33,600 working towards a more sustainable future. 679 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,266 See more at earthx.org.