WEBVTT 00:00.900 --> 00:03.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% [Scott] Coming up on "Energy Switch," 00:03.000 --> 00:04.566 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% we'll talk about the benefits 00:04.566 --> 00:06.800 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and challenges of electric cars. 00:07.266 --> 00:09.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% [Beia] It takes time for transformation. 00:09.033 --> 00:12.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% It takes time for the vehicle fleet to turn over. 00:12.066 --> 00:13.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Right now, it's only five percent. 00:13.633 --> 00:15.866 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% That's really low economies of scale. 00:15.866 --> 00:17.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% And so prices are high, yes. 00:17.833 --> 00:21.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% But as we push for more electric vehicles to come 00:21.133 --> 00:24.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% into the market as they learn and figure out 00:24.100 --> 00:27.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% new manufacturing processes, those costs will come down. 00:27.133 --> 00:31.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - If the goal of the electric vehicle revolution 00:31.900 --> 00:35.000 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% is to reduce transportation emissions, 00:35.000 --> 00:37.733 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% then it's not about getting electric vehicles on the road. 00:37.733 --> 00:40.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% It's about getting gasoline cars off the road. 00:41.266 --> 00:44.666 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% [Scott] In this discussion, part one of electric cars, 00:44.666 --> 00:46.100 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% pros and cons. 00:49.200 --> 00:50.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 00:50.433 --> 00:53.566 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% was provided in part by 00:53.566 --> 00:56.066 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% the University of Texas at Austin, 00:56.066 --> 00:58.566 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% leading research in energy and the environment 00:58.566 --> 01:00.366 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% for a better tomorrow. 01:00.366 --> 01:03.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% What starts here changes the world. 01:04.200 --> 01:07.766 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And by EarthX, an international nonprofit 01:07.766 --> 01:10.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% working towards a more sustainable future. 01:10.466 --> 01:13.300 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% See more at earthx.org. 01:13.633 --> 01:15.000 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% [upbeat music] 01:15.000 --> 01:16.166 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - I'm Scott Tinker, 01:16.166 --> 01:18.300 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and I'm an energy scientist. 01:18.300 --> 01:19.933 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% I work in the field, 01:19.933 --> 01:21.033 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% lead research, 01:21.033 --> 01:22.800 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% speak around the world, 01:22.800 --> 01:23.866 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% write articles, 01:23.866 --> 01:26.800 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and make films about energy. 01:26.800 --> 01:29.500 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% This show brings together leading experts 01:29.500 --> 01:32.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% on vital topics in energy and climate. 01:32.500 --> 01:34.366 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% They may have different perspectives, 01:34.366 --> 01:37.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but my goal is to learn, and illuminate, 01:37.333 --> 01:40.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and bring diverging views together towards solutions. 01:41.500 --> 01:44.000 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Welcome to the "Energy Switch." 01:45.966 --> 01:49.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Electric cars are quiet, fast and efficient. 01:49.533 --> 01:52.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% You can fill them up in your garage overnight, 01:52.766 --> 01:55.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and they produce no local emissions, 01:55.233 --> 01:57.000 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% but they're expensive 01:57.000 --> 01:59.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and their subsidies have gone mostly to the wealthy. 02:00.100 --> 02:02.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And the critical minerals for their batteries 02:02.033 --> 02:04.066 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% are controlled by foreign powers 02:04.066 --> 02:06.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% unless we begin more domestic mining. 02:06.866 --> 02:12.100 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% We'll look at all this and much more with my expert guests. 02:12.100 --> 02:15.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Beia Spiller is a fellow at Resources for the Future 02:15.866 --> 02:18.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% where she directs their transportation program. 02:18.600 --> 02:19.866 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% Before that, 02:19.866 --> 02:23.266 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% she was lead senior economist at Environmental Defense Fund. 02:23.833 --> 02:26.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% David Rapson is also an energy economist 02:26.833 --> 02:29.833 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 02:29.833 --> 02:32.366 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% and the Chancellor's Leadership Professor of Economics 02:32.366 --> 02:34.966 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% at the University of California Davis. 02:36.333 --> 02:38.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% In this episode of "Energy Switch," 02:38.633 --> 02:41.066 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% electric cars, pros and cons, 02:41.066 --> 02:42.333 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% part one. 02:42.333 --> 02:43.433 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% So welcome everybody. 02:43.433 --> 02:45.066 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% Really glad you're here with us. 02:45.066 --> 02:47.300 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Most of us in the U.S. are driving gasoline cars 02:47.300 --> 02:48.600 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% or maybe diesel. 02:48.600 --> 02:50.666 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Why do we care about EVs? 02:50.666 --> 02:54.400 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Well, EVs have a huge environmental benefit, right? 02:54.400 --> 02:57.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% They remove all tailpipe emissions from the road. 02:57.166 --> 03:00.066 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% And one of the biggest reasons why I think electric vehicles 03:00.066 --> 03:04.433 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% are so exciting is the potential for them to really reduce 03:04.433 --> 03:06.900 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% the harm that transportation pollution has 03:06.900 --> 03:08.566 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% on disadvantaged communities. 03:08.566 --> 03:11.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% These communities tend to live closer to highways 03:11.166 --> 03:14.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and major roadways as well as depots. 03:14.033 --> 03:16.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And so if we begin to electrify that, 03:16.366 --> 03:18.866 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% we can start to improve the health and wellbeing 03:18.866 --> 03:21.800 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% of these communities who have been so historically damaged 03:21.800 --> 03:23.433 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% by transportation pollution. 03:23.433 --> 03:26.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - That's a big environmental justice piece to it. 03:26.133 --> 03:27.800 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% [Beia] Absolutely. - Yeah. David? 03:27.800 --> 03:29.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Well, the first thing I have to say, 03:29.233 --> 03:30.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% I work for the Federal Reserve, 03:30.400 --> 03:33.133 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and so all of the opinions I have today are my own 03:33.133 --> 03:34.266 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% and not the Feds. 03:34.266 --> 03:36.066 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% We care about electric vehicles 03:36.066 --> 03:37.633 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% because we care about climate change. 03:37.633 --> 03:40.333 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% You know, climate change is real, it's an urgent problem. 03:40.333 --> 03:42.000 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% And decarbonizing transportation 03:42.000 --> 03:44.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% is one of the most difficult aspects of that. 03:44.366 --> 03:48.066 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And we have this technology that offers us a pathway 03:48.066 --> 03:50.733 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% where we decarbonize the grid and we switch 03:50.733 --> 03:53.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% from liquid fuels to electric vehicles. 03:53.166 --> 03:54.366 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% At least that's the vision. 03:54.366 --> 03:57.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Yeah, let's start with kind of the market. 03:58.033 --> 04:01.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% How deeply have EVs penetrated the market so far? 04:01.400 --> 04:02.233 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% U.S. at least. 04:02.233 --> 04:04.566 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - It's about 5, 5.5%. 04:04.566 --> 04:07.300 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% And that's grown really rapidly over the past few years. 04:07.300 --> 04:08.233 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 04:08.233 --> 04:09.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% U.S. sells about 15 million cars a year. 04:09.900 --> 04:11.133 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So we're looking at- [Beia] Right. 04:11.133 --> 04:13.033 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% It's about 750,000. 04:13.033 --> 04:14.366 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Approaching a million cars. - Absolutely. 04:14.366 --> 04:15.566 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - EVs a year. Big number. 04:15.566 --> 04:17.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - And we expect that number to go up a lot 04:17.266 --> 04:18.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% over the coming years. [Scott] Right. 04:18.566 --> 04:21.600 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - You know, there really has been a rapid increase 04:21.600 --> 04:24.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% in the adoption of this technology. 04:24.166 --> 04:25.000 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Yeah. 04:25.000 --> 04:26.033 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% - On the other hand, 04:26.033 --> 04:27.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% it's a very specific segment of the market 04:27.866 --> 04:29.633 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% that has taken of. 04:29.633 --> 04:31.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Most of the consumers are very wealthy 04:31.633 --> 04:33.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and they're driving around cars that cost, 04:33.900 --> 04:37.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% you know, 60, 70, 80, sometimes thousand, 04:37.033 --> 04:38.433 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% you know, more dollars. 04:38.433 --> 04:40.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% So these are not inexpensive cars 04:40.200 --> 04:43.200 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and they're not accessible to the vast majority 04:43.200 --> 04:44.700 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% of the market at this point. - Yeah. 04:44.700 --> 04:45.700 align:left position:42.5% line:83% size:47.5% - Well- - That's interesting. 04:45.700 --> 04:47.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Beia] Can I push back on that a little bit? 04:47.266 --> 04:48.200 align:left position:42.5% line:83% size:47.5% - Sure. - First of all, 04:48.200 --> 04:49.833 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% the great thing about Tesla 04:49.833 --> 04:51.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% was that they made these cars cool. 04:51.400 --> 04:54.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Beforehand, everybody was thinking about these EVs 04:54.900 --> 04:59.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% as sort of horribly ugly as, you know, 04:59.000 --> 05:00.733 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% lacking in horsepower, 05:00.733 --> 05:02.633 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% lacking in performance. 05:02.633 --> 05:04.300 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And so now all of a sudden, people are 05:04.300 --> 05:05.833 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% thinking about EVs as, 05:05.833 --> 05:08.200 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% "Wow, this is a really cool car." 05:08.200 --> 05:11.800 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% We can have environmentally friendly driving, 05:11.800 --> 05:14.700 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% but also have it be really fun to drive, right? 05:14.700 --> 05:18.400 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I mean, Prius is pretty ugly. - Well, you know. 05:18.400 --> 05:20.866 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - And that was- - My kids are all beautiful. 05:20.866 --> 05:23.966 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - That was like the main way that people were able to, 05:23.966 --> 05:25.933 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% you know, improve the environmental impact 05:25.933 --> 05:26.933 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% of their driving. 05:26.933 --> 05:29.700 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - How do we see that globally? 05:29.700 --> 05:30.800 align:left position:45% line:89% size:45% EVs? 05:30.800 --> 05:34.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - EVs have really taken off in China and in Europe. 05:34.866 --> 05:38.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% So in places where they want to signal 05:38.033 --> 05:39.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% that they're taking climate change seriously, 05:39.933 --> 05:43.533 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% electric vehicles are, you know, the pathway to signal that. 05:43.533 --> 05:45.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% I think it's worth noting though, 05:45.900 --> 05:48.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% that even as they increase in the market share 05:48.266 --> 05:50.000 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% of new vehicles, 05:50.000 --> 05:53.466 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% it's a lot smaller as a share of the cars on the road. 05:53.466 --> 05:55.433 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% And, you know, I think we're gonna come back to this 05:55.433 --> 05:59.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% a few times because if the goal of the electric vehicle 05:59.900 --> 06:04.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% revolution is to reduce transportation emissions, 06:04.833 --> 06:07.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% then it's not about getting electric vehicles on the road, 06:07.500 --> 06:09.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% it's about getting gasoline cars off the road. 06:09.966 --> 06:11.166 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% [Scott] That's interesting. 06:11.166 --> 06:13.566 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% In addition, China and the EU, 06:13.566 --> 06:18.066 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% China consumes five times more petroleum than it produces. 06:18.066 --> 06:20.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So there's a practical driver here too. 06:20.633 --> 06:22.533 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% We don't have oil. 06:22.533 --> 06:24.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% We need something else for our vehicles. 06:24.233 --> 06:26.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And so it's climate, but it's also, 06:26.966 --> 06:28.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% particularly in China, really practical. 06:28.733 --> 06:30.366 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% Let's electrify this stuff, right? 06:30.366 --> 06:31.333 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Well, sure. 06:31.333 --> 06:33.100 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% But I mean, they're gonna have to get inputs 06:33.100 --> 06:34.400 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% for electricity as well. 06:34.400 --> 06:36.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% So, you know, we saw what happened 06:36.400 --> 06:38.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% with Europe's electricity sector in 2022 06:38.866 --> 06:41.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% when Russia cut off the flows of natural gas. 06:41.466 --> 06:44.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% You know, what happened to Germany as they shifted 06:44.366 --> 06:46.233 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% towards coal 06:46.233 --> 06:49.566 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and China is also importing a lot of coal 06:49.566 --> 06:51.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and building a lot of coal fired plants. 06:51.500 --> 06:52.333 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% - Correct. 06:52.333 --> 06:53.400 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% It's not good for climate, 06:53.400 --> 06:55.633 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% but it's good for transportation security. 06:55.633 --> 06:56.500 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - That's exactly right. 06:56.500 --> 06:58.900 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% And if we as economists could, 06:58.900 --> 07:01.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% you know, wave our wand and do this efficiently, 07:01.366 --> 07:04.766 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I think we'd have a lot more grid decarbonization happening 07:04.766 --> 07:09.133 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% before there's deep penetration of EVs in the market- 07:09.133 --> 07:11.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% [Scott] Interesting. - Because, you know, 07:11.600 --> 07:15.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% our grid worldwide is about 60% fossil fuels. 07:15.900 --> 07:18.300 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Forty percent of that is coal worldwide. 07:18.300 --> 07:19.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And you flip those numbers in the U.S., 07:19.833 --> 07:23.700 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% we're about 60% fossil fuels on the electric grid in the U.S. 07:23.700 --> 07:27.333 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% where it's 40% natural gas, so it's a little bit cleaner, 07:27.333 --> 07:30.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% but still, you know, these cars have been branded, 07:30.433 --> 07:33.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% particularly in California, as zero emissions vehicles. 07:33.433 --> 07:35.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And you know that's true at the tailpipe, 07:35.200 --> 07:36.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% but that's not true if what you care about 07:36.666 --> 07:37.666 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% is climate change. 07:37.666 --> 07:39.466 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% [Scott] Right. You agree? 07:39.466 --> 07:41.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - The idea that we need to wait until the grid 07:41.433 --> 07:43.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% is decarbonized to make this transition, 07:43.466 --> 07:47.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I think that's a fallacy because it takes time 07:47.100 --> 07:48.200 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% for transformation. 07:48.200 --> 07:51.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% It takes time for the vehicle fleet to turn over. 07:51.000 --> 07:52.700 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Right now's only five percent, 07:52.700 --> 07:54.933 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that's really low economies of scale. 07:54.933 --> 07:56.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% And so prices are high, yes. 07:56.833 --> 08:00.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% But as we push for more electric vehicles to come 08:00.133 --> 08:03.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% into the market as they learn and figure out 08:03.133 --> 08:04.700 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% new manufacturing process, 08:04.700 --> 08:06.200 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% those costs will come down. 08:06.200 --> 08:09.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Another thing that I wanna point out is there needs 08:09.500 --> 08:12.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% to be learning on the side of the customers, right? 08:12.266 --> 08:14.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So understanding when's the right time to charge? 08:14.933 --> 08:18.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% How can we charge in a way that minimizes our emissions? 08:18.900 --> 08:23.366 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Understanding, how do we deal with range anxiety, right? 08:23.366 --> 08:26.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And so if charging stations are well networked 08:26.400 --> 08:29.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and we have a lot of them everywhere, then, right? 08:29.466 --> 08:31.100 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% Range anxiety can decrease. 08:31.100 --> 08:32.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% People can understand that they're gonna be able 08:32.900 --> 08:35.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% to use these vehicles appropriately. 08:35.800 --> 08:37.000 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% So if we wait, 08:37.000 --> 08:40.833 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% we're adding extra decades to that whole learning process, 08:40.833 --> 08:43.600 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% which we really should be accelerating right now. 08:43.600 --> 08:45.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - I agree with everything that Beia just said. 08:45.633 --> 08:47.333 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% And what she's really pointed out 08:47.333 --> 08:50.500 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% is the beginning of what's a really long list of obstacles. 08:50.500 --> 08:53.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So, you know, maybe we go a little bit slower, 08:53.733 --> 08:56.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% we learn, maybe not at as fast a rate, 08:56.966 --> 09:00.133 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% but we allow other technologies to be innovated as well. 09:00.133 --> 09:02.500 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% For example, battery storage technology which will help 09:02.500 --> 09:04.300 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% decarbonize the grid, 09:04.300 --> 09:06.166 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% or hydrogen fuel technology 09:06.166 --> 09:09.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% which will make electric vehicles, you know, 09:09.000 --> 09:12.433 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% maybe not 100% of the vision. 09:12.433 --> 09:13.666 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% And so, you know, 09:13.666 --> 09:16.366 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I think foreclosing these other technology options 09:16.366 --> 09:18.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% by going all in on EVs, it's a little risky. 09:18.833 --> 09:20.333 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% [Beia] Hold on, let me push back on that 09:20.333 --> 09:21.500 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% for a second. [David] Sure, sure. 09:21.500 --> 09:24.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Because if we were going to try to make the vehicles 09:24.866 --> 09:27.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% on the road be both hydrogen and electric, 09:27.600 --> 09:30.666 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% we will need a massive infrastructure investmeent. 09:30.666 --> 09:32.033 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Not just the charging stations 09:32.033 --> 09:33.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% that we're currently investing in, 09:33.266 --> 09:37.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% but also the fueling stations for these hydrogen vehicles, 09:37.233 --> 09:38.600 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% for these fuel cell vehicles. 09:38.600 --> 09:42.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% The billions of dollars that that would cost society 09:42.133 --> 09:46.200 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% to make parallel investments in charging and fueling 09:46.200 --> 09:48.366 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% stations is massive. [Scott] Yeah. 09:48.366 --> 09:52.333 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Let's just touch on where electricity, 09:52.333 --> 09:53.633 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% batteries make sense, 09:53.633 --> 09:55.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% vehicle size, that kind of thing. 09:55.233 --> 09:56.633 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% What are your thoughts on that? 09:56.633 --> 09:58.666 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% We'll come back over here, David. 09:58.666 --> 10:01.266 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - You know, within the medium heavy duty vehicle sector, 10:01.266 --> 10:03.600 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% there's a lot of use cases that can do very well 10:03.600 --> 10:05.933 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% with electric, particularly, you know, 10:05.933 --> 10:09.166 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% smaller vehicles right now, delivery vehicles, 10:09.166 --> 10:11.133 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% garbage trucks, school buses, 10:11.133 --> 10:12.933 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% and even transit buses. 10:12.933 --> 10:15.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Right now, the cost is quite a bit higher. 10:15.833 --> 10:17.500 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% How can we bring it down? 10:17.500 --> 10:20.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And it's not just gonna be through subsidization 10:20.033 --> 10:22.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% of the vehicle purchase because there's so many other 10:22.700 --> 10:24.700 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% different challenges within the medium heavy duty 10:24.700 --> 10:27.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% vehicle sector that we're not going to be able 10:27.166 --> 10:29.733 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% to just throw money at the purchaser and think that 10:29.733 --> 10:31.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% that's gonna be able to reduce the cost. 10:31.600 --> 10:35.233 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Yeah, I mean, a electric motor is so efficient, 10:35.233 --> 10:38.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% combustion engine not, but gasoline is so efficient, 10:38.900 --> 10:42.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% dense per unit volume as compared to a battery, 10:42.233 --> 10:44.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% so you get this kind of strange trade-off. 10:44.800 --> 10:47.266 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% Your thoughts on the bigger vehicles? 10:47.266 --> 10:48.433 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Yeah. 10:48.433 --> 10:50.533 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Well, I mean, I think that electric vehicle technology 10:50.533 --> 10:53.600 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% is most promising in light vehicles because batteries 10:53.600 --> 10:57.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% are so heavy and because liquid fuels like gasoline 10:57.033 --> 10:59.866 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% and diesel are very energy dense, 10:59.866 --> 11:02.566 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and so they make sense for these bigger applications. 11:02.566 --> 11:05.766 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% For urban driving, I think electric vehicles are great 11:05.766 --> 11:08.233 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% and you don't even necessarily need batteries as big as 11:08.233 --> 11:10.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% the ones that Tesla is putting in, you know, 11:10.266 --> 11:12.200 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% or the ones that are being mandated under 11:12.200 --> 11:14.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% subsidy thresholds in current policy. 11:14.833 --> 11:16.400 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% I think, you know, we should be- 11:16.400 --> 11:17.433 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - When you say big, 11:17.433 --> 11:19.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% give me a feel for weight in a car of a battery, 11:19.633 --> 11:21.400 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% like a four door sedan. 11:21.400 --> 11:23.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Well, a typical electric vehicle can be, you know, 11:23.966 --> 11:29.133 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% 500 to 1,000 pounds more heavy than its 11:29.133 --> 11:31.566 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% non-battery counterpart, so- - Whereas 20 gallons 11:31.566 --> 11:33.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% of gasoline weighs about 100 pounds. 11:33.833 --> 11:34.866 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% - Yeah, exactly. 11:34.866 --> 11:36.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And you're putting it in a, you know, 11:36.233 --> 11:38.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% $100 like polyethylene tank, you know, 11:38.833 --> 11:43.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% you don't have to build this extremely expensive battery. 11:43.133 --> 11:45.400 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And so I think the first thing is the use case. 11:45.400 --> 11:47.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And the second thing is, where's the grid clean? 11:47.333 --> 11:48.866 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Because, you know, I'm sorry, 11:48.866 --> 11:51.466 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I care about carbon emissions and I think it does matter. 11:51.466 --> 11:54.400 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% It's not just about, you know, going down this cost curve. 11:54.400 --> 11:57.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% It's about do we want to be putting electric vehicles 11:57.266 --> 11:59.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% in places where there's a lot of coal on the grid? 11:59.033 --> 12:00.833 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% I think the answer is no. 12:00.833 --> 12:03.366 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And right now there's not enough of a nuanced conversation 12:03.366 --> 12:05.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% about where the EVs are going. 12:05.366 --> 12:07.700 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Let's come back and talk a little bit about cost. 12:07.700 --> 12:09.000 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% Where are we now? 12:09.000 --> 12:10.533 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Where do you see that heading? 12:10.533 --> 12:12.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - So electric vehicles obviously cost more 12:12.733 --> 12:15.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% than gasoline vehicles, but that's coming down 12:15.266 --> 12:18.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and it will continue to drop in part due to 12:18.266 --> 12:22.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% the inflation reduction act subsidies requirements that, 12:22.266 --> 12:25.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% you know, in order to be able to be eligible for a subsidy, 12:25.233 --> 12:28.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% the vehicle price can't exceed a certain threshold. 12:28.333 --> 12:30.300 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% And as the numbers come up, 12:30.300 --> 12:32.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% as more and more people purchase these vehicles, 12:32.633 --> 12:33.866 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% prices will continue to drop. 12:33.866 --> 12:35.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Right, and subsidies go away, or? 12:35.633 --> 12:37.366 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Yeah, even when subsidies go away, I mean, 12:37.366 --> 12:41.133 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% we can achieve cost parity within, you know, several years 12:41.133 --> 12:45.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% as manufacturers innovate and are able to take advantage 12:45.233 --> 12:48.400 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% of these large scale demands. - Right, right. 12:48.400 --> 12:50.133 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% How much do they cost on average? 12:50.133 --> 12:51.366 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% What are we looking at? 12:51.366 --> 12:52.600 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - So last year, 12:52.600 --> 12:57.000 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% the average MSRP for a electric vehicle was about $66,000. 12:57.000 --> 12:59.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% But I think we need to keep two main things in mind 12:59.433 --> 13:01.333 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% when we think about EV costs. 13:01.333 --> 13:03.333 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% One is they've got these big batteries 13:03.333 --> 13:05.066 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and the batteries are expensive. 13:05.066 --> 13:06.300 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And they're expensive because they have 13:06.300 --> 13:09.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% all these metals that go into them. 13:09.033 --> 13:10.233 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% And you know, 13:10.233 --> 13:12.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% that's instead of having a plastic gasoline tank, right? 13:12.633 --> 13:15.800 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% So we've made incredible progress bringing 13:15.800 --> 13:16.900 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% those prices down, 13:16.900 --> 13:18.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% they've come down about 90% in the last decade, 13:18.800 --> 13:21.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% so batteries are a lot less expensive. 13:21.633 --> 13:24.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And I think one of the things we're about to see 13:24.033 --> 13:27.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% is a proliferation of choice in EVs. 13:27.766 --> 13:31.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The vehicle manufacturers are going to create 13:31.533 --> 13:34.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% many more models, introduce many more models, 13:34.033 --> 13:36.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% including ones that are gonna be less expensive. 13:36.333 --> 13:37.300 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% [Scott] Right. 13:37.300 --> 13:39.600 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Are they cheaper to operate, maintain? 13:39.600 --> 13:43.066 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - It depends entirely upon a few different things. 13:43.066 --> 13:44.333 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% One, where you live, 13:44.333 --> 13:46.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% so what's the price that you're facing 13:46.833 --> 13:48.866 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% in the utility service territory? 13:48.866 --> 13:51.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Number two, what the gasoline price is 13:51.166 --> 13:54.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% in your neighborhood and in your region. 13:54.000 --> 13:55.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And then three, what time you charge, 13:55.866 --> 13:58.533 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% because there's a lot of time-variant pricing. 13:58.533 --> 14:01.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And so depending on what kind of rates you're facing, 14:01.500 --> 14:04.166 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and some people are facing real time prices even, 14:04.166 --> 14:06.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% you can manage the charging to take advantage 14:06.733 --> 14:08.866 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% of the low cost time. 14:08.866 --> 14:11.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So just thinking about an average price, 14:11.833 --> 14:13.666 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% oh, electricity prices are, you know, 14:13.666 --> 14:16.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% on average X and gasoline price on average Y 14:16.633 --> 14:20.533 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% is a total fallacy because what that's gonna mean for you 14:20.533 --> 14:22.066 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% is something completely different. 14:22.066 --> 14:23.066 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - Right. - You know, 14:23.066 --> 14:25.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% maybe we don't want to just focus on averages, 14:25.100 --> 14:29.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% but electric vehicles are really efficient. 14:29.333 --> 14:32.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And so the cost to drive a mile is typically 14:32.466 --> 14:33.766 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% a little bit lower. 14:33.766 --> 14:35.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% But I think that might have been a bit overplayed 14:35.533 --> 14:37.566 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% because in the places where there are a lot 14:37.566 --> 14:38.933 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% of electric vehicles, 14:38.933 --> 14:42.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% like in California and in the Northeast, 14:42.000 --> 14:44.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% electricity prices are also very high. 14:44.233 --> 14:46.133 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% So if you're paying, you know, 14:46.133 --> 14:48.466 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% 30 to 40 cents a kilowatt hour, 14:48.466 --> 14:51.700 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% then probably you're not saving much money driving an EV. 14:51.700 --> 14:52.733 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - Right. - Now, 14:52.733 --> 14:54.666 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% EVs have a lot fewer moving parts. 14:54.666 --> 14:56.366 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% You asked about maintenance. 14:56.366 --> 14:59.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And so yeah, we think that EVs are not gonna require 14:59.966 --> 15:01.366 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% as many service appointments, 15:01.366 --> 15:03.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% so they'll be less expensive in that way, 15:03.366 --> 15:05.966 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% but at some point you're gonna have to replace the battery 15:05.966 --> 15:07.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and that's gonna be kind of equivalent to replacing 15:07.933 --> 15:10.300 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% a transmission in a gasoline car. 15:10.300 --> 15:12.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So you know how this all plays out, you know, 15:12.600 --> 15:15.833 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% honestly, I don't think that people should be buying these 15:15.833 --> 15:18.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% based on whether they're cheaper or not. 15:18.466 --> 15:21.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I think people have many more important factors 15:21.333 --> 15:22.666 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% that go into their car choice. 15:22.666 --> 15:24.066 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - Absolutely, I agree. 15:24.066 --> 15:26.633 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% When people go to purchase vehicles, 15:26.633 --> 15:28.000 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% regardless of the fuel type, 15:28.000 --> 15:31.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% what they're looking for is comfort, safety, aesthetics. 15:31.900 --> 15:34.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% We want horsepower, we want performance, 15:34.300 --> 15:36.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% more than how much it costs to drive. 15:36.733 --> 15:39.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% I also have that issue. [Scott] Right. 15:39.700 --> 15:41.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - One of the things that they care least about 15:41.666 --> 15:45.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% is the cost of fueling and that has been true 15:45.333 --> 15:47.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% with respect to the gasoline market. 15:47.433 --> 15:49.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And that's why the efficiency standards 15:49.366 --> 15:50.933 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% were so highly important. 15:50.933 --> 15:52.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - We've been kind of spoiled by cheap gasoline 15:52.633 --> 15:54.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% for a long time too. - Absolutely. 15:54.166 --> 15:56.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% [Scott] Everybody's mentioning subsidies. 15:56.000 --> 15:57.333 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% How do they work? 15:57.333 --> 15:58.800 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - Well, I mean, we've got 15:58.800 --> 16:00.266 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% really big subsidy programs 16:00.266 --> 16:03.100 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% from the federal government and from many state governments. 16:03.100 --> 16:05.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And so when you buy an electric vehicle, 16:05.433 --> 16:08.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% you can get a credit on your taxes that, you know, 16:08.533 --> 16:11.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% the federal credit right now is about $7,500, 16:11.233 --> 16:14.466 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% but there are lots of complexities that are, you know, 16:14.466 --> 16:17.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% being woven into that around means testing 16:17.233 --> 16:18.700 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% where if you're very wealthy, 16:18.700 --> 16:21.600 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% you don't get the subsidy and the type of car you're buying. 16:21.600 --> 16:24.333 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% But I really want to focus in on these subsidies 16:24.333 --> 16:26.866 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% for a minute because I think this is one of the areas 16:26.866 --> 16:29.133 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% where I think we're getting it wrong. 16:29.133 --> 16:32.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% These subsidies are being offered with a vision 16:32.666 --> 16:36.066 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that the EVs are displacing gasoline cars. 16:36.066 --> 16:38.633 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% And I think there's two really important pieces of evidence 16:38.633 --> 16:39.933 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% that that's not happening. 16:39.933 --> 16:42.833 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% First, when you look at the vehicle portfolios 16:42.833 --> 16:45.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% of households that are buying these EVs, 16:45.666 --> 16:48.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% they're not getting rid of a gasoline car 16:48.300 --> 16:51.200 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% nearly as frequently as is being assumed. 16:51.200 --> 16:53.500 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - They're just adding an EV. - They're just adding an EV. 16:53.500 --> 16:54.733 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% And you know, 16:54.733 --> 16:56.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% a lot of the time they're not driving it as much. 16:56.566 --> 16:59.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% So kind of there's dipping the toe in this market. 16:59.900 --> 17:01.233 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - Right. - But the other reason 17:01.233 --> 17:03.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% why I think we know that these subsidies 17:03.533 --> 17:07.566 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% are expanding the number of cars overall in the country 17:07.566 --> 17:10.733 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% is because vehicle manufacturers love these subsidies. 17:10.733 --> 17:11.433 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% All right? 17:11.433 --> 17:12.433 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% Why do they love them? 17:12.433 --> 17:14.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Because now they're selling a lot more cars 17:14.900 --> 17:15.866 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% because they're subsidized. 17:15.866 --> 17:17.033 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% So, you know, 17:17.033 --> 17:19.966 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I think if what we care about is reducing the pollution, 17:19.966 --> 17:23.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% then we need to shift our focus back to 17:23.166 --> 17:25.500 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% removing gasoline cars from the road, 17:25.500 --> 17:27.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% making it more expensive to drive gasoline cars, 17:27.966 --> 17:31.000 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% and a little bit less on how many EVs are being purchased. 17:31.000 --> 17:34.400 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Because you know, these are not doing one-to-one what we- 17:34.400 --> 17:36.000 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - How do you make it more expensive to 17:36.000 --> 17:37.233 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% drive gasoline cars? 17:37.233 --> 17:39.700 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Oh, well I think we need to put a price on carbon. 17:39.700 --> 17:41.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% I mean, we keep on crying this from the hilltops 17:41.666 --> 17:44.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and it's out of favor politically right now. 17:44.033 --> 17:47.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% But if we really genuinely want to tackle climate change, 17:47.633 --> 17:49.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% we need to make it expensive to pollute. 17:49.500 --> 17:50.733 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% [Scott] Is that regressive? 17:50.733 --> 17:52.466 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% I mean, the people that have to drive to service industries 17:52.466 --> 17:54.666 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and gasoline's going up like in Europe, 17:54.666 --> 17:56.233 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% they can't even afford to go to work. 17:56.233 --> 17:58.833 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Yeah, it could be and we really need to care about 17:58.833 --> 18:00.066 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% addressing that, 18:00.066 --> 18:02.333 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% but I think we need to separate these issues a little bit. 18:02.333 --> 18:04.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% We need to make it more expensive to pollute 18:04.200 --> 18:05.733 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% if we care about climate change 18:05.733 --> 18:09.333 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and we need a tax transfer system that is, you know, 18:09.333 --> 18:11.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% making it easier on the low income households 18:11.333 --> 18:12.500 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% if we were to do that. 18:12.500 --> 18:14.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% But we're gonna look back 10 years from now 18:14.100 --> 18:16.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and we're gonna see that these subsidies didn't work 18:16.233 --> 18:17.733 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% the way that we expected them to. 18:17.733 --> 18:18.833 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - Yeah, that's interesting. 18:18.833 --> 18:20.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Just on the point of gasoline taxes 18:20.600 --> 18:23.866 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% being aggressive, that money that comes in from the taxes, 18:23.866 --> 18:25.300 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% it could be used, you know, 18:25.300 --> 18:27.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% in part to fix up our infrastructure, 18:27.666 --> 18:30.533 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% but part of that could then be sent back to households 18:30.533 --> 18:34.233 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% based on their characteristics so we can make 18:34.233 --> 18:36.133 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% these gasoline taxes not regressive. 18:36.133 --> 18:39.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And I also want to respond to what Dave had said 18:39.633 --> 18:41.566 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% about which vehicles are being replaced. 18:41.566 --> 18:42.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% I actually really think it depends 18:42.666 --> 18:44.066 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% on the data set you're looking at. 18:44.066 --> 18:46.766 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% So we have this really great data set in Massachusetts 18:46.766 --> 18:49.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% where we're able to track households over time. 18:49.533 --> 18:52.500 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% We know all the vehicles that they have in their household. 18:52.500 --> 18:54.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% We know when they purchase new vehicles, 18:54.366 --> 18:56.066 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% which vehicles they get rid of, 18:56.066 --> 18:57.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and which ones they hold onto. 18:57.800 --> 19:02.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And what we find is that households who purchase an EV 19:02.000 --> 19:04.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% are just slightly more likely to purchase that 19:04.333 --> 19:06.000 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% as an additional vehicle. 19:06.000 --> 19:07.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And the second thing I wanna point out is that 19:07.800 --> 19:09.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% we're not finding that households are driving 19:09.700 --> 19:10.866 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% these vehicles less, 19:10.866 --> 19:14.100 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% we're finding very similar types of patterns of driving 19:14.100 --> 19:16.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% when they purchase an electric vehicle. 19:16.300 --> 19:18.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And in fact, one of the benefits of the household 19:18.766 --> 19:22.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% getting the EV is that as gasoline prices go up, 19:22.233 --> 19:24.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% they're able to shift the miles to the EV. 19:24.633 --> 19:26.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Will that vary by density of population, 19:26.600 --> 19:29.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% denser cities and denser places like Massachusetts, EVs, 19:29.700 --> 19:33.100 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% because you don't go that far, rural areas, harder? 19:33.100 --> 19:36.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Possibly, but we have data from all over Massachusetts. 19:36.233 --> 19:38.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - I still think of the whole state as little, 19:38.933 --> 19:40.766 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% but we're in Texas, you know, everything is little, 19:40.766 --> 19:41.800 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% except for Alaska. 19:41.800 --> 19:44.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% So what percentage of the EV cost, 19:44.200 --> 19:46.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% let's say unsubsidized is the battery, 19:46.100 --> 19:48.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% what percentage plus or minus? 19:48.366 --> 19:49.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - This is a really good question. 19:49.500 --> 19:50.600 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% First of all, 19:50.600 --> 19:52.833 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% there's a lot of variation in the size of batteries. 19:52.833 --> 19:54.633 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - Right. - And since the costs 19:54.633 --> 19:56.133 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% have been coming down so rapidly, 19:56.133 --> 19:58.200 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% that number has been changing a lot. 19:58.200 --> 20:02.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% But you know, I have as my heuristic that a Tesla 20:02.366 --> 20:04.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% has about $10,000 worth of battery in it. 20:04.466 --> 20:05.933 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - Right. [David] But, you know, 20:05.933 --> 20:08.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% I could be off by a couple thousand, but- 20:08.200 --> 20:09.933 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Plus or minus. [David] It's a major cost. 20:09.933 --> 20:13.700 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% And again, you're relating that to a plastic gasoline tank. 20:13.700 --> 20:14.900 align:left position:37.5% line:83% size:52.5% - Yeah, so- [Beia] Yeah. 20:14.900 --> 20:17.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And I just wanna stress the point that there's been 20:17.433 --> 20:20.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% so much technological innovation on the battery side. 20:20.400 --> 20:21.966 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% Look at Ultium Cells. 20:21.966 --> 20:24.566 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Ultium Cells is a collaboration 20:24.566 --> 20:27.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% between General Motors and LG Electric. 20:27.066 --> 20:28.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And what they've done is they're creating these 20:28.566 --> 20:31.866 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% gigafactories that are creating this new technology 20:31.866 --> 20:35.833 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% of battery that are modular and what it allows for 20:35.833 --> 20:38.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% is a much longer life of a battery 20:38.666 --> 20:40.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that also uses a lot less cobalt, 20:40.800 --> 20:42.566 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% one of the main critical minerals. 20:42.566 --> 20:46.300 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% There isn't one technology of battery, 20:46.300 --> 20:48.800 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% a lot of different batteries have different types 20:48.800 --> 20:52.066 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% of minerals and quantities that go into each. 20:52.066 --> 20:54.333 align:left position:37.5% line:83% size:52.5% And so with technological innovation, 20:54.333 --> 20:56.033 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% we could expect them to live longer, 20:56.033 --> 20:59.166 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% rely upon less critical minerals and price comes down. 20:59.166 --> 21:03.500 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - So let's say we do get to 50% of the current vehicle fleet 21:03.500 --> 21:06.600 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% in the planet, which is 1.4 billion, 21:06.600 --> 21:08.166 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% electrify half that, 21:08.166 --> 21:10.900 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% you know, 700 million EVs. 21:10.900 --> 21:14.800 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% You know, there's one to 5,000 actual lithium-ion 21:14.800 --> 21:17.533 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% battery cells in an EV. 21:17.533 --> 21:19.366 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% You start to get into trillions 21:19.366 --> 21:20.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and this is a big deal, you know, 21:20.633 --> 21:21.933 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% how do we see this happening? 21:21.933 --> 21:25.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% How do we see the supply and price and minerals 21:25.700 --> 21:27.333 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% as we look out in the future? 21:27.333 --> 21:28.600 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% What's it look like? 21:28.600 --> 21:31.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Well, we started seeing the effects of this even last year 21:31.233 --> 21:33.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% in lithium prices that went up about 10X 21:33.800 --> 21:36.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and one of the risks- - 10X, 1,000%? 21:36.900 --> 21:37.866 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% [David] 1,000%. 21:37.866 --> 21:39.200 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And they've come down a little bit, 21:39.200 --> 21:40.466 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% but there's still, you know, 21:40.466 --> 21:42.400 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% we have a scarcity of lithium 21:42.400 --> 21:44.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and I think this is one of the risks 21:44.166 --> 21:48.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% that as we expand demand for EVs and batteries, 21:48.133 --> 21:50.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% that the input prices for the batteries, you know, 21:50.900 --> 21:54.633 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% reverses this trend of declining battery costs and then, 21:54.633 --> 21:58.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% you know, it becomes harder to stimulate EV adoption. 21:58.266 --> 21:59.066 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Yeah. 21:59.066 --> 22:00.833 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% [Beia] The extent to which the 22:00.833 --> 22:03.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% supply chain restrictions on the critical minerals 22:03.466 --> 22:07.433 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% is going to affect EV prices is still sort of an unknown. 22:07.433 --> 22:09.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% But as critical minerals go up, 22:09.400 --> 22:10.600 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% we will begin to innovate. 22:10.600 --> 22:13.100 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And part of the innovation in terms of mining is, 22:13.100 --> 22:16.800 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% for example, where are we getting these critical minerals? 22:16.800 --> 22:19.600 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% One really promising option is coal ash, you know, 22:19.600 --> 22:23.666 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% being able to find it from a waste products of, 22:23.666 --> 22:25.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% you know, electricity generation. 22:25.900 --> 22:26.733 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% [Scott] Gotcha. 22:26.733 --> 22:29.200 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% So Maine has spodumene, 22:29.200 --> 22:31.333 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% it's a mineral, lithium rich mineral. 22:31.333 --> 22:32.566 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% A lot of it actually. 22:32.566 --> 22:36.400 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Their legislature overrode their governor's veto, 22:36.400 --> 22:38.066 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% 35 to nothing, they won't mine it, 22:38.066 --> 22:40.166 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% yet they're gonna mandate EVs. 22:40.166 --> 22:41.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So here's one of the great challenges. 22:41.633 --> 22:43.033 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Are we gonna mine in the U.S.? 22:43.033 --> 22:44.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% How do you see it? - I think so, yes. 22:44.633 --> 22:46.066 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% [Scott] You think so? - I think though 22:46.066 --> 22:47.233 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% it's challenging. 22:47.233 --> 22:50.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% There's three or four different agencies' regulations 22:50.400 --> 22:52.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% that determine where we can and can't mine. 22:52.900 --> 22:56.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And so I think it is a question of how do we go about 22:56.366 --> 22:59.200 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% taking a look at all these regulations and thinking, 22:59.200 --> 23:02.066 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% you know, what can we loosen, 23:02.066 --> 23:05.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% make sure that that mining's done in a responsible manner 23:05.233 --> 23:07.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% in a way that's not affecting local communities. 23:07.733 --> 23:09.400 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Right, it's where they come from, 23:09.400 --> 23:11.966 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% but also then who processes it. 23:11.966 --> 23:14.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% China processes a lot of these things now, 23:14.100 --> 23:16.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and good for them, they got out in front of it. 23:16.266 --> 23:18.833 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% [Beia] We have one processing plant in this country. 23:18.833 --> 23:20.633 align:left position:40% line:83% size:50% - Right. [Beia] So the question is, 23:20.633 --> 23:23.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% what does the permitting process look like to put in 23:23.333 --> 23:24.700 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% these processing plants here? 23:24.700 --> 23:26.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% From what I hear is pretty challenging. 23:26.666 --> 23:28.000 align:left position:42.5% line:83% size:47.5% - Yeah. - So we need, you know, 23:28.000 --> 23:31.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that sort of processing plant capacity 23:31.200 --> 23:33.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% within the United States will need to grow. 23:33.100 --> 23:34.966 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - Yeah, how do you see it? 23:34.966 --> 23:37.333 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - Well, this is something I've been thinking about recently 23:37.333 --> 23:39.066 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% in the context of China. 23:39.066 --> 23:42.000 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% So China has a larger market share 23:42.000 --> 23:45.933 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% in battery processing 23:45.933 --> 23:48.133 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% than OPEC does in oil. 23:48.133 --> 23:50.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But I'm much less worried about it in this context. 23:50.066 --> 23:52.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% This is actually one of the areas where I think, 23:52.733 --> 23:55.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% you know, it makes sense to keep an eye on that concern. 23:55.866 --> 23:59.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% But let's say that they decided to, you know, 23:59.633 --> 24:02.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% withhold supply in the same way that say OPEC did 24:02.766 --> 24:04.100 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% in the 1970s. 24:04.100 --> 24:06.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% There are lots of margins of adjustment there. 24:06.300 --> 24:10.000 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% You know, we can allow the existing EVs 24:10.000 --> 24:11.266 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% to stay on the road longer. 24:11.266 --> 24:14.000 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% So instead of scrapping them when we get in an accident, 24:14.000 --> 24:15.233 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% maybe we fix them. 24:15.233 --> 24:18.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Or we can, you know, buy gasoline cars and you know, 24:18.700 --> 24:21.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I think we need to be aware of pressure relief valves 24:21.866 --> 24:23.900 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% for situations like that. 24:23.900 --> 24:27.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And you know, when somebody cuts off the electric grid, 24:27.266 --> 24:28.600 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% there's really no substitute. 24:28.600 --> 24:31.366 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% When somebody cuts off the supply of gasoline, 24:31.366 --> 24:34.066 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% you know, you're stuck without being able to go anywhere. 24:34.066 --> 24:36.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% It's not exactly the same with battery minerals. 24:37.133 --> 24:38.300 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% [Scott] In the U.S., 24:38.300 --> 24:41.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% electric cars now make up five percent of new cars sold. 24:41.966 --> 24:43.166 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% They're expensive though, 24:43.166 --> 24:46.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and their subsidies have gone mostly to the wealthy. 24:46.166 --> 24:49.966 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% But EV choices are increasing and costs are decreasing, 24:49.966 --> 24:52.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% which could help further adoption. 24:52.366 --> 24:54.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Eighty-five percent of global EVs 24:54.466 --> 24:57.500 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% are sold in Europe and particularly China, 24:57.500 --> 24:59.166 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% including many scooters. 24:59.166 --> 25:02.400 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% They use domestic electricity rather than imported oil, 25:02.400 --> 25:04.400 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% helping with energy security. 25:04.400 --> 25:07.833 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% But their electricity still comes mostly from coal, 25:07.833 --> 25:10.800 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% which partially offsets CO2 reductions. 25:10.800 --> 25:14.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Our guests disagreed on the pace of EV adoption, 25:14.200 --> 25:17.266 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% with David advocating for preserving fuel optionality 25:17.266 --> 25:20.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and allowing time for the grid to decarbonize, 25:20.166 --> 25:22.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and Beia pressing for acceleration of EVs, 25:22.900 --> 25:25.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% concerned about the cost of other options. 25:25.666 --> 25:28.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And there will be challenges with the supply, 25:28.466 --> 25:30.200 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% politics, price volatility, 25:30.200 --> 25:32.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and security of the critical minerals needed 25:32.733 --> 25:34.366 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% to make the batteries. 25:34.366 --> 25:36.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% We'll talk more about subsidies and mandates 25:36.633 --> 25:39.300 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% in part two of electric cars, 25:39.300 --> 25:41.000 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% pros and cons. 25:41.000 --> 25:50.900 align:left position:47.5% line:89% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 25:50.900 --> 26:00.800 align:left position:47.5% line:89% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:00.800 --> 26:11.800 align:left position:47.5% line:89% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:12.300 --> 26:13.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 26:13.733 --> 26:16.766 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% was provided in part by 26:16.766 --> 26:19.333 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% the University of Texas at Austin, 26:19.333 --> 26:21.800 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% leading research in energy and the environment 26:21.800 --> 26:23.666 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% for a better tomorrow. 26:23.666 --> 26:26.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% What starts here changes the world. 26:27.433 --> 26:30.933 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And by EarthX, an international nonprofit 26:30.933 --> 26:33.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% working towards a more sustainable future. 26:33.600 --> 26:36.266 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% See more at earthx.org.