1 00:00:00,900 --> 00:00:03,000 [Scott] Coming up on "Energy Switch," 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:04,566 we'll talk about the benefits 3 00:00:04,566 --> 00:00:06,800 and challenges of electric cars. 4 00:00:07,266 --> 00:00:09,033 [Beia] It takes time for transformation. 5 00:00:09,033 --> 00:00:12,066 It takes time for the vehicle fleet to turn over. 6 00:00:12,066 --> 00:00:13,633 Right now, it's only five percent. 7 00:00:13,633 --> 00:00:15,866 That's really low economies of scale. 8 00:00:15,866 --> 00:00:17,833 And so prices are high, yes. 9 00:00:17,833 --> 00:00:21,133 But as we push for more electric vehicles to come 10 00:00:21,133 --> 00:00:24,100 into the market as they learn and figure out 11 00:00:24,100 --> 00:00:27,133 new manufacturing processes, those costs will come down. 12 00:00:27,133 --> 00:00:31,900 - If the goal of the electric vehicle revolution 13 00:00:31,900 --> 00:00:35,000 is to reduce transportation emissions, 14 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:37,733 then it's not about getting electric vehicles on the road. 15 00:00:37,733 --> 00:00:40,200 It's about getting gasoline cars off the road. 16 00:00:41,266 --> 00:00:44,666 [Scott] In this discussion, part one of electric cars, 17 00:00:44,666 --> 00:00:46,100 pros and cons. 18 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:50,433 [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 19 00:00:50,433 --> 00:00:53,566 was provided in part by 20 00:00:53,566 --> 00:00:56,066 the University of Texas at Austin, 21 00:00:56,066 --> 00:00:58,566 leading research in energy and the environment 22 00:00:58,566 --> 00:01:00,366 for a better tomorrow. 23 00:01:00,366 --> 00:01:03,166 What starts here changes the world. 24 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,766 And by EarthX, an international nonprofit 25 00:01:07,766 --> 00:01:10,466 working towards a more sustainable future. 26 00:01:10,466 --> 00:01:13,300 See more at earthx.org. 27 00:01:13,633 --> 00:01:15,000 [upbeat music] 28 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:16,166 - I'm Scott Tinker, 29 00:01:16,166 --> 00:01:18,300 and I'm an energy scientist. 30 00:01:18,300 --> 00:01:19,933 I work in the field, 31 00:01:19,933 --> 00:01:21,033 lead research, 32 00:01:21,033 --> 00:01:22,800 speak around the world, 33 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:23,866 write articles, 34 00:01:23,866 --> 00:01:26,800 and make films about energy. 35 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,500 This show brings together leading experts 36 00:01:29,500 --> 00:01:32,500 on vital topics in energy and climate. 37 00:01:32,500 --> 00:01:34,366 They may have different perspectives, 38 00:01:34,366 --> 00:01:37,333 but my goal is to learn, and illuminate, 39 00:01:37,333 --> 00:01:40,700 and bring diverging views together towards solutions. 40 00:01:41,500 --> 00:01:44,000 Welcome to the "Energy Switch." 41 00:01:45,966 --> 00:01:49,533 Electric cars are quiet, fast and efficient. 42 00:01:49,533 --> 00:01:52,766 You can fill them up in your garage overnight, 43 00:01:52,766 --> 00:01:55,233 and they produce no local emissions, 44 00:01:55,233 --> 00:01:57,000 but they're expensive 45 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,466 and their subsidies have gone mostly to the wealthy. 46 00:02:00,100 --> 00:02:02,033 And the critical minerals for their batteries 47 00:02:02,033 --> 00:02:04,066 are controlled by foreign powers 48 00:02:04,066 --> 00:02:06,866 unless we begin more domestic mining. 49 00:02:06,866 --> 00:02:12,100 We'll look at all this and much more with my expert guests. 50 00:02:12,100 --> 00:02:15,866 Beia Spiller is a fellow at Resources for the Future 51 00:02:15,866 --> 00:02:18,600 where she directs their transportation program. 52 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:19,866 Before that, 53 00:02:19,866 --> 00:02:23,266 she was lead senior economist at Environmental Defense Fund. 54 00:02:23,833 --> 00:02:26,833 David Rapson is also an energy economist 55 00:02:26,833 --> 00:02:29,833 for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 56 00:02:29,833 --> 00:02:32,366 and the Chancellor's Leadership Professor of Economics 57 00:02:32,366 --> 00:02:34,966 at the University of California Davis. 58 00:02:36,333 --> 00:02:38,633 In this episode of "Energy Switch," 59 00:02:38,633 --> 00:02:41,066 electric cars, pros and cons, 60 00:02:41,066 --> 00:02:42,333 part one. 61 00:02:42,333 --> 00:02:43,433 So welcome everybody. 62 00:02:43,433 --> 00:02:45,066 Really glad you're here with us. 63 00:02:45,066 --> 00:02:47,300 Most of us in the U.S. are driving gasoline cars 64 00:02:47,300 --> 00:02:48,600 or maybe diesel. 65 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,666 Why do we care about EVs? 66 00:02:50,666 --> 00:02:54,400 - Well, EVs have a huge environmental benefit, right? 67 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,166 They remove all tailpipe emissions from the road. 68 00:02:57,166 --> 00:03:00,066 And one of the biggest reasons why I think electric vehicles 69 00:03:00,066 --> 00:03:04,433 are so exciting is the potential for them to really reduce 70 00:03:04,433 --> 00:03:06,900 the harm that transportation pollution has 71 00:03:06,900 --> 00:03:08,566 on disadvantaged communities. 72 00:03:08,566 --> 00:03:11,166 These communities tend to live closer to highways 73 00:03:11,166 --> 00:03:14,033 and major roadways as well as depots. 74 00:03:14,033 --> 00:03:16,366 And so if we begin to electrify that, 75 00:03:16,366 --> 00:03:18,866 we can start to improve the health and wellbeing 76 00:03:18,866 --> 00:03:21,800 of these communities who have been so historically damaged 77 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:23,433 by transportation pollution. 78 00:03:23,433 --> 00:03:26,133 - That's a big environmental justice piece to it. 79 00:03:26,133 --> 00:03:27,800 [Beia] Absolutely. - Yeah. David? 80 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,233 - Well, the first thing I have to say, 81 00:03:29,233 --> 00:03:30,400 I work for the Federal Reserve, 82 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,133 and so all of the opinions I have today are my own 83 00:03:33,133 --> 00:03:34,266 and not the Feds. 84 00:03:34,266 --> 00:03:36,066 We care about electric vehicles 85 00:03:36,066 --> 00:03:37,633 because we care about climate change. 86 00:03:37,633 --> 00:03:40,333 You know, climate change is real, it's an urgent problem. 87 00:03:40,333 --> 00:03:42,000 And decarbonizing transportation 88 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,366 is one of the most difficult aspects of that. 89 00:03:44,366 --> 00:03:48,066 And we have this technology that offers us a pathway 90 00:03:48,066 --> 00:03:50,733 where we decarbonize the grid and we switch 91 00:03:50,733 --> 00:03:53,166 from liquid fuels to electric vehicles. 92 00:03:53,166 --> 00:03:54,366 At least that's the vision. 93 00:03:54,366 --> 00:03:57,200 - Yeah, let's start with kind of the market. 94 00:03:58,033 --> 00:04:01,400 How deeply have EVs penetrated the market so far? 95 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:02,233 U.S. at least. 96 00:04:02,233 --> 00:04:04,566 - It's about 5, 5.5%. 97 00:04:04,566 --> 00:04:07,300 And that's grown really rapidly over the past few years. 98 00:04:07,300 --> 00:04:08,233 - Right. 99 00:04:08,233 --> 00:04:09,900 U.S. sells about 15 million cars a year. 100 00:04:09,900 --> 00:04:11,133 So we're looking at- [Beia] Right. 101 00:04:11,133 --> 00:04:13,033 It's about 750,000. 102 00:04:13,033 --> 00:04:14,366 - Approaching a million cars. - Absolutely. 103 00:04:14,366 --> 00:04:15,566 - EVs a year. Big number. 104 00:04:15,566 --> 00:04:17,266 - And we expect that number to go up a lot 105 00:04:17,266 --> 00:04:18,566 over the coming years. [Scott] Right. 106 00:04:18,566 --> 00:04:21,600 - You know, there really has been a rapid increase 107 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,166 in the adoption of this technology. 108 00:04:24,166 --> 00:04:25,000 - Yeah. 109 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:26,033 - On the other hand, 110 00:04:26,033 --> 00:04:27,866 it's a very specific segment of the market 111 00:04:27,866 --> 00:04:29,633 that has taken of. 112 00:04:29,633 --> 00:04:31,633 Most of the consumers are very wealthy 113 00:04:31,633 --> 00:04:33,900 and they're driving around cars that cost, 114 00:04:33,900 --> 00:04:37,033 you know, 60, 70, 80, sometimes thousand, 115 00:04:37,033 --> 00:04:38,433 you know, more dollars. 116 00:04:38,433 --> 00:04:40,200 So these are not inexpensive cars 117 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,200 and they're not accessible to the vast majority 118 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:44,700 of the market at this point. - Yeah. 119 00:04:44,700 --> 00:04:45,700 - Well- - That's interesting. 120 00:04:45,700 --> 00:04:47,266 [Beia] Can I push back on that a little bit? 121 00:04:47,266 --> 00:04:48,200 - Sure. - First of all, 122 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:49,833 the great thing about Tesla 123 00:04:49,833 --> 00:04:51,400 was that they made these cars cool. 124 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,900 Beforehand, everybody was thinking about these EVs 125 00:04:54,900 --> 00:04:59,000 as sort of horribly ugly as, you know, 126 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:00,733 lacking in horsepower, 127 00:05:00,733 --> 00:05:02,633 lacking in performance. 128 00:05:02,633 --> 00:05:04,300 And so now all of a sudden, people are 129 00:05:04,300 --> 00:05:05,833 thinking about EVs as, 130 00:05:05,833 --> 00:05:08,200 "Wow, this is a really cool car." 131 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,800 We can have environmentally friendly driving, 132 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,700 but also have it be really fun to drive, right? 133 00:05:14,700 --> 00:05:18,400 I mean, Prius is pretty ugly. - Well, you know. 134 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,866 - And that was- - My kids are all beautiful. 135 00:05:20,866 --> 00:05:23,966 - That was like the main way that people were able to, 136 00:05:23,966 --> 00:05:25,933 you know, improve the environmental impact 137 00:05:25,933 --> 00:05:26,933 of their driving. 138 00:05:26,933 --> 00:05:29,700 - How do we see that globally? 139 00:05:29,700 --> 00:05:30,800 EVs? 140 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,866 - EVs have really taken off in China and in Europe. 141 00:05:34,866 --> 00:05:38,033 So in places where they want to signal 142 00:05:38,033 --> 00:05:39,933 that they're taking climate change seriously, 143 00:05:39,933 --> 00:05:43,533 electric vehicles are, you know, the pathway to signal that. 144 00:05:43,533 --> 00:05:45,900 I think it's worth noting though, 145 00:05:45,900 --> 00:05:48,266 that even as they increase in the market share 146 00:05:48,266 --> 00:05:50,000 of new vehicles, 147 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,466 it's a lot smaller as a share of the cars on the road. 148 00:05:53,466 --> 00:05:55,433 And, you know, I think we're gonna come back to this 149 00:05:55,433 --> 00:05:59,900 a few times because if the goal of the electric vehicle 150 00:05:59,900 --> 00:06:04,833 revolution is to reduce transportation emissions, 151 00:06:04,833 --> 00:06:07,500 then it's not about getting electric vehicles on the road, 152 00:06:07,500 --> 00:06:09,966 it's about getting gasoline cars off the road. 153 00:06:09,966 --> 00:06:11,166 [Scott] That's interesting. 154 00:06:11,166 --> 00:06:13,566 In addition, China and the EU, 155 00:06:13,566 --> 00:06:18,066 China consumes five times more petroleum than it produces. 156 00:06:18,066 --> 00:06:20,633 So there's a practical driver here too. 157 00:06:20,633 --> 00:06:22,533 We don't have oil. 158 00:06:22,533 --> 00:06:24,233 We need something else for our vehicles. 159 00:06:24,233 --> 00:06:26,966 And so it's climate, but it's also, 160 00:06:26,966 --> 00:06:28,733 particularly in China, really practical. 161 00:06:28,733 --> 00:06:30,366 Let's electrify this stuff, right? 162 00:06:30,366 --> 00:06:31,333 - Well, sure. 163 00:06:31,333 --> 00:06:33,100 But I mean, they're gonna have to get inputs 164 00:06:33,100 --> 00:06:34,400 for electricity as well. 165 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,400 So, you know, we saw what happened 166 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:38,866 with Europe's electricity sector in 2022 167 00:06:38,866 --> 00:06:41,466 when Russia cut off the flows of natural gas. 168 00:06:41,466 --> 00:06:44,366 You know, what happened to Germany as they shifted 169 00:06:44,366 --> 00:06:46,233 towards coal 170 00:06:46,233 --> 00:06:49,566 and China is also importing a lot of coal 171 00:06:49,566 --> 00:06:51,500 and building a lot of coal fired plants. 172 00:06:51,500 --> 00:06:52,333 - Correct. 173 00:06:52,333 --> 00:06:53,400 It's not good for climate, 174 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,633 but it's good for transportation security. 175 00:06:55,633 --> 00:06:56,500 - That's exactly right. 176 00:06:56,500 --> 00:06:58,900 And if we as economists could, 177 00:06:58,900 --> 00:07:01,366 you know, wave our wand and do this efficiently, 178 00:07:01,366 --> 00:07:04,766 I think we'd have a lot more grid decarbonization happening 179 00:07:04,766 --> 00:07:09,133 before there's deep penetration of EVs in the market- 180 00:07:09,133 --> 00:07:11,600 [Scott] Interesting. - Because, you know, 181 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,900 our grid worldwide is about 60% fossil fuels. 182 00:07:15,900 --> 00:07:18,300 Forty percent of that is coal worldwide. 183 00:07:18,300 --> 00:07:19,833 And you flip those numbers in the U.S., 184 00:07:19,833 --> 00:07:23,700 we're about 60% fossil fuels on the electric grid in the U.S. 185 00:07:23,700 --> 00:07:27,333 where it's 40% natural gas, so it's a little bit cleaner, 186 00:07:27,333 --> 00:07:30,433 but still, you know, these cars have been branded, 187 00:07:30,433 --> 00:07:33,433 particularly in California, as zero emissions vehicles. 188 00:07:33,433 --> 00:07:35,200 And you know that's true at the tailpipe, 189 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:36,666 but that's not true if what you care about 190 00:07:36,666 --> 00:07:37,666 is climate change. 191 00:07:37,666 --> 00:07:39,466 [Scott] Right. You agree? 192 00:07:39,466 --> 00:07:41,433 - The idea that we need to wait until the grid 193 00:07:41,433 --> 00:07:43,466 is decarbonized to make this transition, 194 00:07:43,466 --> 00:07:47,100 I think that's a fallacy because it takes time 195 00:07:47,100 --> 00:07:48,200 for transformation. 196 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,000 It takes time for the vehicle fleet to turn over. 197 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:52,700 Right now's only five percent, 198 00:07:52,700 --> 00:07:54,933 that's really low economies of scale. 199 00:07:54,933 --> 00:07:56,833 And so prices are high, yes. 200 00:07:56,833 --> 00:08:00,133 But as we push for more electric vehicles to come 201 00:08:00,133 --> 00:08:03,133 into the market as they learn and figure out 202 00:08:03,133 --> 00:08:04,700 new manufacturing process, 203 00:08:04,700 --> 00:08:06,200 those costs will come down. 204 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,500 Another thing that I wanna point out is there needs 205 00:08:09,500 --> 00:08:12,266 to be learning on the side of the customers, right? 206 00:08:12,266 --> 00:08:14,933 So understanding when's the right time to charge? 207 00:08:14,933 --> 00:08:18,900 How can we charge in a way that minimizes our emissions? 208 00:08:18,900 --> 00:08:23,366 Understanding, how do we deal with range anxiety, right? 209 00:08:23,366 --> 00:08:26,400 And so if charging stations are well networked 210 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,466 and we have a lot of them everywhere, then, right? 211 00:08:29,466 --> 00:08:31,100 Range anxiety can decrease. 212 00:08:31,100 --> 00:08:32,900 People can understand that they're gonna be able 213 00:08:32,900 --> 00:08:35,800 to use these vehicles appropriately. 214 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:37,000 So if we wait, 215 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:40,833 we're adding extra decades to that whole learning process, 216 00:08:40,833 --> 00:08:43,600 which we really should be accelerating right now. 217 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:45,633 - I agree with everything that Beia just said. 218 00:08:45,633 --> 00:08:47,333 And what she's really pointed out 219 00:08:47,333 --> 00:08:50,500 is the beginning of what's a really long list of obstacles. 220 00:08:50,500 --> 00:08:53,733 So, you know, maybe we go a little bit slower, 221 00:08:53,733 --> 00:08:56,966 we learn, maybe not at as fast a rate, 222 00:08:56,966 --> 00:09:00,133 but we allow other technologies to be innovated as well. 223 00:09:00,133 --> 00:09:02,500 For example, battery storage technology which will help 224 00:09:02,500 --> 00:09:04,300 decarbonize the grid, 225 00:09:04,300 --> 00:09:06,166 or hydrogen fuel technology 226 00:09:06,166 --> 00:09:09,000 which will make electric vehicles, you know, 227 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:12,433 maybe not 100% of the vision. 228 00:09:12,433 --> 00:09:13,666 And so, you know, 229 00:09:13,666 --> 00:09:16,366 I think foreclosing these other technology options 230 00:09:16,366 --> 00:09:18,833 by going all in on EVs, it's a little risky. 231 00:09:18,833 --> 00:09:20,333 [Beia] Hold on, let me push back on that 232 00:09:20,333 --> 00:09:21,500 for a second. [David] Sure, sure. 233 00:09:21,500 --> 00:09:24,866 - Because if we were going to try to make the vehicles 234 00:09:24,866 --> 00:09:27,600 on the road be both hydrogen and electric, 235 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,666 we will need a massive infrastructure investmeent. 236 00:09:30,666 --> 00:09:32,033 Not just the charging stations 237 00:09:32,033 --> 00:09:33,266 that we're currently investing in, 238 00:09:33,266 --> 00:09:37,233 but also the fueling stations for these hydrogen vehicles, 239 00:09:37,233 --> 00:09:38,600 for these fuel cell vehicles. 240 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:42,133 The billions of dollars that that would cost society 241 00:09:42,133 --> 00:09:46,200 to make parallel investments in charging and fueling 242 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,366 stations is massive. [Scott] Yeah. 243 00:09:48,366 --> 00:09:52,333 Let's just touch on where electricity, 244 00:09:52,333 --> 00:09:53,633 batteries make sense, 245 00:09:53,633 --> 00:09:55,233 vehicle size, that kind of thing. 246 00:09:55,233 --> 00:09:56,633 What are your thoughts on that? 247 00:09:56,633 --> 00:09:58,666 We'll come back over here, David. 248 00:09:58,666 --> 00:10:01,266 - You know, within the medium heavy duty vehicle sector, 249 00:10:01,266 --> 00:10:03,600 there's a lot of use cases that can do very well 250 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:05,933 with electric, particularly, you know, 251 00:10:05,933 --> 00:10:09,166 smaller vehicles right now, delivery vehicles, 252 00:10:09,166 --> 00:10:11,133 garbage trucks, school buses, 253 00:10:11,133 --> 00:10:12,933 and even transit buses. 254 00:10:12,933 --> 00:10:15,833 Right now, the cost is quite a bit higher. 255 00:10:15,833 --> 00:10:17,500 How can we bring it down? 256 00:10:17,500 --> 00:10:20,033 And it's not just gonna be through subsidization 257 00:10:20,033 --> 00:10:22,700 of the vehicle purchase because there's so many other 258 00:10:22,700 --> 00:10:24,700 different challenges within the medium heavy duty 259 00:10:24,700 --> 00:10:27,166 vehicle sector that we're not going to be able 260 00:10:27,166 --> 00:10:29,733 to just throw money at the purchaser and think that 261 00:10:29,733 --> 00:10:31,600 that's gonna be able to reduce the cost. 262 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:35,233 - Yeah, I mean, a electric motor is so efficient, 263 00:10:35,233 --> 00:10:38,900 combustion engine not, but gasoline is so efficient, 264 00:10:38,900 --> 00:10:42,233 dense per unit volume as compared to a battery, 265 00:10:42,233 --> 00:10:44,800 so you get this kind of strange trade-off. 266 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,266 Your thoughts on the bigger vehicles? 267 00:10:47,266 --> 00:10:48,433 - Yeah. 268 00:10:48,433 --> 00:10:50,533 Well, I mean, I think that electric vehicle technology 269 00:10:50,533 --> 00:10:53,600 is most promising in light vehicles because batteries 270 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:57,033 are so heavy and because liquid fuels like gasoline 271 00:10:57,033 --> 00:10:59,866 and diesel are very energy dense, 272 00:10:59,866 --> 00:11:02,566 and so they make sense for these bigger applications. 273 00:11:02,566 --> 00:11:05,766 For urban driving, I think electric vehicles are great 274 00:11:05,766 --> 00:11:08,233 and you don't even necessarily need batteries as big as 275 00:11:08,233 --> 00:11:10,266 the ones that Tesla is putting in, you know, 276 00:11:10,266 --> 00:11:12,200 or the ones that are being mandated under 277 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,833 subsidy thresholds in current policy. 278 00:11:14,833 --> 00:11:16,400 I think, you know, we should be- 279 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:17,433 - When you say big, 280 00:11:17,433 --> 00:11:19,633 give me a feel for weight in a car of a battery, 281 00:11:19,633 --> 00:11:21,400 like a four door sedan. 282 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,966 - Well, a typical electric vehicle can be, you know, 283 00:11:23,966 --> 00:11:29,133 500 to 1,000 pounds more heavy than its 284 00:11:29,133 --> 00:11:31,566 non-battery counterpart, so- - Whereas 20 gallons 285 00:11:31,566 --> 00:11:33,833 of gasoline weighs about 100 pounds. 286 00:11:33,833 --> 00:11:34,866 - Yeah, exactly. 287 00:11:34,866 --> 00:11:36,233 And you're putting it in a, you know, 288 00:11:36,233 --> 00:11:38,833 $100 like polyethylene tank, you know, 289 00:11:38,833 --> 00:11:43,133 you don't have to build this extremely expensive battery. 290 00:11:43,133 --> 00:11:45,400 And so I think the first thing is the use case. 291 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,333 And the second thing is, where's the grid clean? 292 00:11:47,333 --> 00:11:48,866 Because, you know, I'm sorry, 293 00:11:48,866 --> 00:11:51,466 I care about carbon emissions and I think it does matter. 294 00:11:51,466 --> 00:11:54,400 It's not just about, you know, going down this cost curve. 295 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,266 It's about do we want to be putting electric vehicles 296 00:11:57,266 --> 00:11:59,033 in places where there's a lot of coal on the grid? 297 00:11:59,033 --> 00:12:00,833 I think the answer is no. 298 00:12:00,833 --> 00:12:03,366 And right now there's not enough of a nuanced conversation 299 00:12:03,366 --> 00:12:05,366 about where the EVs are going. 300 00:12:05,366 --> 00:12:07,700 - Let's come back and talk a little bit about cost. 301 00:12:07,700 --> 00:12:09,000 Where are we now? 302 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:10,533 Where do you see that heading? 303 00:12:10,533 --> 00:12:12,733 - So electric vehicles obviously cost more 304 00:12:12,733 --> 00:12:15,266 than gasoline vehicles, but that's coming down 305 00:12:15,266 --> 00:12:18,266 and it will continue to drop in part due to 306 00:12:18,266 --> 00:12:22,266 the inflation reduction act subsidies requirements that, 307 00:12:22,266 --> 00:12:25,233 you know, in order to be able to be eligible for a subsidy, 308 00:12:25,233 --> 00:12:28,333 the vehicle price can't exceed a certain threshold. 309 00:12:28,333 --> 00:12:30,300 And as the numbers come up, 310 00:12:30,300 --> 00:12:32,633 as more and more people purchase these vehicles, 311 00:12:32,633 --> 00:12:33,866 prices will continue to drop. 312 00:12:33,866 --> 00:12:35,633 - Right, and subsidies go away, or? 313 00:12:35,633 --> 00:12:37,366 - Yeah, even when subsidies go away, I mean, 314 00:12:37,366 --> 00:12:41,133 we can achieve cost parity within, you know, several years 315 00:12:41,133 --> 00:12:45,233 as manufacturers innovate and are able to take advantage 316 00:12:45,233 --> 00:12:48,400 of these large scale demands. - Right, right. 317 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:50,133 How much do they cost on average? 318 00:12:50,133 --> 00:12:51,366 What are we looking at? 319 00:12:51,366 --> 00:12:52,600 - So last year, 320 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:57,000 the average MSRP for a electric vehicle was about $66,000. 321 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,433 But I think we need to keep two main things in mind 322 00:12:59,433 --> 00:13:01,333 when we think about EV costs. 323 00:13:01,333 --> 00:13:03,333 One is they've got these big batteries 324 00:13:03,333 --> 00:13:05,066 and the batteries are expensive. 325 00:13:05,066 --> 00:13:06,300 And they're expensive because they have 326 00:13:06,300 --> 00:13:09,033 all these metals that go into them. 327 00:13:09,033 --> 00:13:10,233 And you know, 328 00:13:10,233 --> 00:13:12,633 that's instead of having a plastic gasoline tank, right? 329 00:13:12,633 --> 00:13:15,800 So we've made incredible progress bringing 330 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:16,900 those prices down, 331 00:13:16,900 --> 00:13:18,800 they've come down about 90% in the last decade, 332 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:21,633 so batteries are a lot less expensive. 333 00:13:21,633 --> 00:13:24,033 And I think one of the things we're about to see 334 00:13:24,033 --> 00:13:27,766 is a proliferation of choice in EVs. 335 00:13:27,766 --> 00:13:31,533 The vehicle manufacturers are going to create 336 00:13:31,533 --> 00:13:34,033 many more models, introduce many more models, 337 00:13:34,033 --> 00:13:36,333 including ones that are gonna be less expensive. 338 00:13:36,333 --> 00:13:37,300 [Scott] Right. 339 00:13:37,300 --> 00:13:39,600 Are they cheaper to operate, maintain? 340 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,066 - It depends entirely upon a few different things. 341 00:13:43,066 --> 00:13:44,333 One, where you live, 342 00:13:44,333 --> 00:13:46,833 so what's the price that you're facing 343 00:13:46,833 --> 00:13:48,866 in the utility service territory? 344 00:13:48,866 --> 00:13:51,166 Number two, what the gasoline price is 345 00:13:51,166 --> 00:13:54,000 in your neighborhood and in your region. 346 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:55,866 And then three, what time you charge, 347 00:13:55,866 --> 00:13:58,533 because there's a lot of time-variant pricing. 348 00:13:58,533 --> 00:14:01,500 And so depending on what kind of rates you're facing, 349 00:14:01,500 --> 00:14:04,166 and some people are facing real time prices even, 350 00:14:04,166 --> 00:14:06,733 you can manage the charging to take advantage 351 00:14:06,733 --> 00:14:08,866 of the low cost time. 352 00:14:08,866 --> 00:14:11,833 So just thinking about an average price, 353 00:14:11,833 --> 00:14:13,666 oh, electricity prices are, you know, 354 00:14:13,666 --> 00:14:16,633 on average X and gasoline price on average Y 355 00:14:16,633 --> 00:14:20,533 is a total fallacy because what that's gonna mean for you 356 00:14:20,533 --> 00:14:22,066 is something completely different. 357 00:14:22,066 --> 00:14:23,066 - Right. - You know, 358 00:14:23,066 --> 00:14:25,100 maybe we don't want to just focus on averages, 359 00:14:25,100 --> 00:14:29,333 but electric vehicles are really efficient. 360 00:14:29,333 --> 00:14:32,466 And so the cost to drive a mile is typically 361 00:14:32,466 --> 00:14:33,766 a little bit lower. 362 00:14:33,766 --> 00:14:35,533 But I think that might have been a bit overplayed 363 00:14:35,533 --> 00:14:37,566 because in the places where there are a lot 364 00:14:37,566 --> 00:14:38,933 of electric vehicles, 365 00:14:38,933 --> 00:14:42,000 like in California and in the Northeast, 366 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,233 electricity prices are also very high. 367 00:14:44,233 --> 00:14:46,133 So if you're paying, you know, 368 00:14:46,133 --> 00:14:48,466 30 to 40 cents a kilowatt hour, 369 00:14:48,466 --> 00:14:51,700 then probably you're not saving much money driving an EV. 370 00:14:51,700 --> 00:14:52,733 - Right. - Now, 371 00:14:52,733 --> 00:14:54,666 EVs have a lot fewer moving parts. 372 00:14:54,666 --> 00:14:56,366 You asked about maintenance. 373 00:14:56,366 --> 00:14:59,966 And so yeah, we think that EVs are not gonna require 374 00:14:59,966 --> 00:15:01,366 as many service appointments, 375 00:15:01,366 --> 00:15:03,366 so they'll be less expensive in that way, 376 00:15:03,366 --> 00:15:05,966 but at some point you're gonna have to replace the battery 377 00:15:05,966 --> 00:15:07,933 and that's gonna be kind of equivalent to replacing 378 00:15:07,933 --> 00:15:10,300 a transmission in a gasoline car. 379 00:15:10,300 --> 00:15:12,600 So you know how this all plays out, you know, 380 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,833 honestly, I don't think that people should be buying these 381 00:15:15,833 --> 00:15:18,466 based on whether they're cheaper or not. 382 00:15:18,466 --> 00:15:21,333 I think people have many more important factors 383 00:15:21,333 --> 00:15:22,666 that go into their car choice. 384 00:15:22,666 --> 00:15:24,066 - Absolutely, I agree. 385 00:15:24,066 --> 00:15:26,633 When people go to purchase vehicles, 386 00:15:26,633 --> 00:15:28,000 regardless of the fuel type, 387 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,900 what they're looking for is comfort, safety, aesthetics. 388 00:15:31,900 --> 00:15:34,300 We want horsepower, we want performance, 389 00:15:34,300 --> 00:15:36,733 more than how much it costs to drive. 390 00:15:36,733 --> 00:15:39,700 I also have that issue. [Scott] Right. 391 00:15:39,700 --> 00:15:41,666 - One of the things that they care least about 392 00:15:41,666 --> 00:15:45,333 is the cost of fueling and that has been true 393 00:15:45,333 --> 00:15:47,433 with respect to the gasoline market. 394 00:15:47,433 --> 00:15:49,366 And that's why the efficiency standards 395 00:15:49,366 --> 00:15:50,933 were so highly important. 396 00:15:50,933 --> 00:15:52,633 - We've been kind of spoiled by cheap gasoline 397 00:15:52,633 --> 00:15:54,166 for a long time too. - Absolutely. 398 00:15:54,166 --> 00:15:56,000 [Scott] Everybody's mentioning subsidies. 399 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:57,333 How do they work? 400 00:15:57,333 --> 00:15:58,800 - Well, I mean, we've got 401 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:00,266 really big subsidy programs 402 00:16:00,266 --> 00:16:03,100 from the federal government and from many state governments. 403 00:16:03,100 --> 00:16:05,433 And so when you buy an electric vehicle, 404 00:16:05,433 --> 00:16:08,533 you can get a credit on your taxes that, you know, 405 00:16:08,533 --> 00:16:11,233 the federal credit right now is about $7,500, 406 00:16:11,233 --> 00:16:14,466 but there are lots of complexities that are, you know, 407 00:16:14,466 --> 00:16:17,233 being woven into that around means testing 408 00:16:17,233 --> 00:16:18,700 where if you're very wealthy, 409 00:16:18,700 --> 00:16:21,600 you don't get the subsidy and the type of car you're buying. 410 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,333 But I really want to focus in on these subsidies 411 00:16:24,333 --> 00:16:26,866 for a minute because I think this is one of the areas 412 00:16:26,866 --> 00:16:29,133 where I think we're getting it wrong. 413 00:16:29,133 --> 00:16:32,666 These subsidies are being offered with a vision 414 00:16:32,666 --> 00:16:36,066 that the EVs are displacing gasoline cars. 415 00:16:36,066 --> 00:16:38,633 And I think there's two really important pieces of evidence 416 00:16:38,633 --> 00:16:39,933 that that's not happening. 417 00:16:39,933 --> 00:16:42,833 First, when you look at the vehicle portfolios 418 00:16:42,833 --> 00:16:45,666 of households that are buying these EVs, 419 00:16:45,666 --> 00:16:48,300 they're not getting rid of a gasoline car 420 00:16:48,300 --> 00:16:51,200 nearly as frequently as is being assumed. 421 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,500 - They're just adding an EV. - They're just adding an EV. 422 00:16:53,500 --> 00:16:54,733 And you know, 423 00:16:54,733 --> 00:16:56,566 a lot of the time they're not driving it as much. 424 00:16:56,566 --> 00:16:59,900 So kind of there's dipping the toe in this market. 425 00:16:59,900 --> 00:17:01,233 - Right. - But the other reason 426 00:17:01,233 --> 00:17:03,533 why I think we know that these subsidies 427 00:17:03,533 --> 00:17:07,566 are expanding the number of cars overall in the country 428 00:17:07,566 --> 00:17:10,733 is because vehicle manufacturers love these subsidies. 429 00:17:10,733 --> 00:17:11,433 All right? 430 00:17:11,433 --> 00:17:12,433 Why do they love them? 431 00:17:12,433 --> 00:17:14,900 Because now they're selling a lot more cars 432 00:17:14,900 --> 00:17:15,866 because they're subsidized. 433 00:17:15,866 --> 00:17:17,033 So, you know, 434 00:17:17,033 --> 00:17:19,966 I think if what we care about is reducing the pollution, 435 00:17:19,966 --> 00:17:23,166 then we need to shift our focus back to 436 00:17:23,166 --> 00:17:25,500 removing gasoline cars from the road, 437 00:17:25,500 --> 00:17:27,966 making it more expensive to drive gasoline cars, 438 00:17:27,966 --> 00:17:31,000 and a little bit less on how many EVs are being purchased. 439 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:34,400 Because you know, these are not doing one-to-one what we- 440 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,000 - How do you make it more expensive to 441 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:37,233 drive gasoline cars? 442 00:17:37,233 --> 00:17:39,700 - Oh, well I think we need to put a price on carbon. 443 00:17:39,700 --> 00:17:41,666 I mean, we keep on crying this from the hilltops 444 00:17:41,666 --> 00:17:44,033 and it's out of favor politically right now. 445 00:17:44,033 --> 00:17:47,633 But if we really genuinely want to tackle climate change, 446 00:17:47,633 --> 00:17:49,500 we need to make it expensive to pollute. 447 00:17:49,500 --> 00:17:50,733 [Scott] Is that regressive? 448 00:17:50,733 --> 00:17:52,466 I mean, the people that have to drive to service industries 449 00:17:52,466 --> 00:17:54,666 and gasoline's going up like in Europe, 450 00:17:54,666 --> 00:17:56,233 they can't even afford to go to work. 451 00:17:56,233 --> 00:17:58,833 - Yeah, it could be and we really need to care about 452 00:17:58,833 --> 00:18:00,066 addressing that, 453 00:18:00,066 --> 00:18:02,333 but I think we need to separate these issues a little bit. 454 00:18:02,333 --> 00:18:04,200 We need to make it more expensive to pollute 455 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:05,733 if we care about climate change 456 00:18:05,733 --> 00:18:09,333 and we need a tax transfer system that is, you know, 457 00:18:09,333 --> 00:18:11,333 making it easier on the low income households 458 00:18:11,333 --> 00:18:12,500 if we were to do that. 459 00:18:12,500 --> 00:18:14,100 But we're gonna look back 10 years from now 460 00:18:14,100 --> 00:18:16,233 and we're gonna see that these subsidies didn't work 461 00:18:16,233 --> 00:18:17,733 the way that we expected them to. 462 00:18:17,733 --> 00:18:18,833 - Yeah, that's interesting. 463 00:18:18,833 --> 00:18:20,600 - Just on the point of gasoline taxes 464 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,866 being aggressive, that money that comes in from the taxes, 465 00:18:23,866 --> 00:18:25,300 it could be used, you know, 466 00:18:25,300 --> 00:18:27,666 in part to fix up our infrastructure, 467 00:18:27,666 --> 00:18:30,533 but part of that could then be sent back to households 468 00:18:30,533 --> 00:18:34,233 based on their characteristics so we can make 469 00:18:34,233 --> 00:18:36,133 these gasoline taxes not regressive. 470 00:18:36,133 --> 00:18:39,633 And I also want to respond to what Dave had said 471 00:18:39,633 --> 00:18:41,566 about which vehicles are being replaced. 472 00:18:41,566 --> 00:18:42,666 I actually really think it depends 473 00:18:42,666 --> 00:18:44,066 on the data set you're looking at. 474 00:18:44,066 --> 00:18:46,766 So we have this really great data set in Massachusetts 475 00:18:46,766 --> 00:18:49,533 where we're able to track households over time. 476 00:18:49,533 --> 00:18:52,500 We know all the vehicles that they have in their household. 477 00:18:52,500 --> 00:18:54,366 We know when they purchase new vehicles, 478 00:18:54,366 --> 00:18:56,066 which vehicles they get rid of, 479 00:18:56,066 --> 00:18:57,800 and which ones they hold onto. 480 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:02,000 And what we find is that households who purchase an EV 481 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,333 are just slightly more likely to purchase that 482 00:19:04,333 --> 00:19:06,000 as an additional vehicle. 483 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:07,800 And the second thing I wanna point out is that 484 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,700 we're not finding that households are driving 485 00:19:09,700 --> 00:19:10,866 these vehicles less, 486 00:19:10,866 --> 00:19:14,100 we're finding very similar types of patterns of driving 487 00:19:14,100 --> 00:19:16,300 when they purchase an electric vehicle. 488 00:19:16,300 --> 00:19:18,766 And in fact, one of the benefits of the household 489 00:19:18,766 --> 00:19:22,233 getting the EV is that as gasoline prices go up, 490 00:19:22,233 --> 00:19:24,633 they're able to shift the miles to the EV. 491 00:19:24,633 --> 00:19:26,600 - Will that vary by density of population, 492 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,700 denser cities and denser places like Massachusetts, EVs, 493 00:19:29,700 --> 00:19:33,100 because you don't go that far, rural areas, harder? 494 00:19:33,100 --> 00:19:36,233 - Possibly, but we have data from all over Massachusetts. 495 00:19:36,233 --> 00:19:38,933 - I still think of the whole state as little, 496 00:19:38,933 --> 00:19:40,766 but we're in Texas, you know, everything is little, 497 00:19:40,766 --> 00:19:41,800 except for Alaska. 498 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,200 So what percentage of the EV cost, 499 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,100 let's say unsubsidized is the battery, 500 00:19:46,100 --> 00:19:48,366 what percentage plus or minus? 501 00:19:48,366 --> 00:19:49,500 - This is a really good question. 502 00:19:49,500 --> 00:19:50,600 First of all, 503 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,833 there's a lot of variation in the size of batteries. 504 00:19:52,833 --> 00:19:54,633 - Right. - And since the costs 505 00:19:54,633 --> 00:19:56,133 have been coming down so rapidly, 506 00:19:56,133 --> 00:19:58,200 that number has been changing a lot. 507 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,366 But you know, I have as my heuristic that a Tesla 508 00:20:02,366 --> 00:20:04,466 has about $10,000 worth of battery in it. 509 00:20:04,466 --> 00:20:05,933 - Right. [David] But, you know, 510 00:20:05,933 --> 00:20:08,200 I could be off by a couple thousand, but- 511 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:09,933 - Plus or minus. [David] It's a major cost. 512 00:20:09,933 --> 00:20:13,700 And again, you're relating that to a plastic gasoline tank. 513 00:20:13,700 --> 00:20:14,900 - Yeah, so- [Beia] Yeah. 514 00:20:14,900 --> 00:20:17,433 And I just wanna stress the point that there's been 515 00:20:17,433 --> 00:20:20,400 so much technological innovation on the battery side. 516 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:21,966 Look at Ultium Cells. 517 00:20:21,966 --> 00:20:24,566 Ultium Cells is a collaboration 518 00:20:24,566 --> 00:20:27,066 between General Motors and LG Electric. 519 00:20:27,066 --> 00:20:28,566 And what they've done is they're creating these 520 00:20:28,566 --> 00:20:31,866 gigafactories that are creating this new technology 521 00:20:31,866 --> 00:20:35,833 of battery that are modular and what it allows for 522 00:20:35,833 --> 00:20:38,666 is a much longer life of a battery 523 00:20:38,666 --> 00:20:40,800 that also uses a lot less cobalt, 524 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,566 one of the main critical minerals. 525 00:20:42,566 --> 00:20:46,300 There isn't one technology of battery, 526 00:20:46,300 --> 00:20:48,800 a lot of different batteries have different types 527 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,066 of minerals and quantities that go into each. 528 00:20:52,066 --> 00:20:54,333 And so with technological innovation, 529 00:20:54,333 --> 00:20:56,033 we could expect them to live longer, 530 00:20:56,033 --> 00:20:59,166 rely upon less critical minerals and price comes down. 531 00:20:59,166 --> 00:21:03,500 - So let's say we do get to 50% of the current vehicle fleet 532 00:21:03,500 --> 00:21:06,600 in the planet, which is 1.4 billion, 533 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,166 electrify half that, 534 00:21:08,166 --> 00:21:10,900 you know, 700 million EVs. 535 00:21:10,900 --> 00:21:14,800 You know, there's one to 5,000 actual lithium-ion 536 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,533 battery cells in an EV. 537 00:21:17,533 --> 00:21:19,366 You start to get into trillions 538 00:21:19,366 --> 00:21:20,633 and this is a big deal, you know, 539 00:21:20,633 --> 00:21:21,933 how do we see this happening? 540 00:21:21,933 --> 00:21:25,700 How do we see the supply and price and minerals 541 00:21:25,700 --> 00:21:27,333 as we look out in the future? 542 00:21:27,333 --> 00:21:28,600 What's it look like? 543 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,233 - Well, we started seeing the effects of this even last year 544 00:21:31,233 --> 00:21:33,800 in lithium prices that went up about 10X 545 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,900 and one of the risks- - 10X, 1,000%? 546 00:21:36,900 --> 00:21:37,866 [David] 1,000%. 547 00:21:37,866 --> 00:21:39,200 And they've come down a little bit, 548 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:40,466 but there's still, you know, 549 00:21:40,466 --> 00:21:42,400 we have a scarcity of lithium 550 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,166 and I think this is one of the risks 551 00:21:44,166 --> 00:21:48,133 that as we expand demand for EVs and batteries, 552 00:21:48,133 --> 00:21:50,900 that the input prices for the batteries, you know, 553 00:21:50,900 --> 00:21:54,633 reverses this trend of declining battery costs and then, 554 00:21:54,633 --> 00:21:58,266 you know, it becomes harder to stimulate EV adoption. 555 00:21:58,266 --> 00:21:59,066 - Yeah. 556 00:21:59,066 --> 00:22:00,833 [Beia] The extent to which the 557 00:22:00,833 --> 00:22:03,466 supply chain restrictions on the critical minerals 558 00:22:03,466 --> 00:22:07,433 is going to affect EV prices is still sort of an unknown. 559 00:22:07,433 --> 00:22:09,400 But as critical minerals go up, 560 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:10,600 we will begin to innovate. 561 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,100 And part of the innovation in terms of mining is, 562 00:22:13,100 --> 00:22:16,800 for example, where are we getting these critical minerals? 563 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,600 One really promising option is coal ash, you know, 564 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:23,666 being able to find it from a waste products of, 565 00:22:23,666 --> 00:22:25,900 you know, electricity generation. 566 00:22:25,900 --> 00:22:26,733 [Scott] Gotcha. 567 00:22:26,733 --> 00:22:29,200 So Maine has spodumene, 568 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,333 it's a mineral, lithium rich mineral. 569 00:22:31,333 --> 00:22:32,566 A lot of it actually. 570 00:22:32,566 --> 00:22:36,400 Their legislature overrode their governor's veto, 571 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,066 35 to nothing, they won't mine it, 572 00:22:38,066 --> 00:22:40,166 yet they're gonna mandate EVs. 573 00:22:40,166 --> 00:22:41,633 So here's one of the great challenges. 574 00:22:41,633 --> 00:22:43,033 Are we gonna mine in the U.S.? 575 00:22:43,033 --> 00:22:44,633 How do you see it? - I think so, yes. 576 00:22:44,633 --> 00:22:46,066 [Scott] You think so? - I think though 577 00:22:46,066 --> 00:22:47,233 it's challenging. 578 00:22:47,233 --> 00:22:50,400 There's three or four different agencies' regulations 579 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,900 that determine where we can and can't mine. 580 00:22:52,900 --> 00:22:56,366 And so I think it is a question of how do we go about 581 00:22:56,366 --> 00:22:59,200 taking a look at all these regulations and thinking, 582 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,066 you know, what can we loosen, 583 00:23:02,066 --> 00:23:05,233 make sure that that mining's done in a responsible manner 584 00:23:05,233 --> 00:23:07,733 in a way that's not affecting local communities. 585 00:23:07,733 --> 00:23:09,400 - Right, it's where they come from, 586 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,966 but also then who processes it. 587 00:23:11,966 --> 00:23:14,100 China processes a lot of these things now, 588 00:23:14,100 --> 00:23:16,266 and good for them, they got out in front of it. 589 00:23:16,266 --> 00:23:18,833 [Beia] We have one processing plant in this country. 590 00:23:18,833 --> 00:23:20,633 - Right. [Beia] So the question is, 591 00:23:20,633 --> 00:23:23,333 what does the permitting process look like to put in 592 00:23:23,333 --> 00:23:24,700 these processing plants here? 593 00:23:24,700 --> 00:23:26,666 From what I hear is pretty challenging. 594 00:23:26,666 --> 00:23:28,000 - Yeah. - So we need, you know, 595 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,200 that sort of processing plant capacity 596 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,100 within the United States will need to grow. 597 00:23:33,100 --> 00:23:34,966 - Yeah, how do you see it? 598 00:23:34,966 --> 00:23:37,333 - Well, this is something I've been thinking about recently 599 00:23:37,333 --> 00:23:39,066 in the context of China. 600 00:23:39,066 --> 00:23:42,000 So China has a larger market share 601 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,933 in battery processing 602 00:23:45,933 --> 00:23:48,133 than OPEC does in oil. 603 00:23:48,133 --> 00:23:50,066 But I'm much less worried about it in this context. 604 00:23:50,066 --> 00:23:52,733 This is actually one of the areas where I think, 605 00:23:52,733 --> 00:23:55,866 you know, it makes sense to keep an eye on that concern. 606 00:23:55,866 --> 00:23:59,633 But let's say that they decided to, you know, 607 00:23:59,633 --> 00:24:02,766 withhold supply in the same way that say OPEC did 608 00:24:02,766 --> 00:24:04,100 in the 1970s. 609 00:24:04,100 --> 00:24:06,300 There are lots of margins of adjustment there. 610 00:24:06,300 --> 00:24:10,000 You know, we can allow the existing EVs 611 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,266 to stay on the road longer. 612 00:24:11,266 --> 00:24:14,000 So instead of scrapping them when we get in an accident, 613 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:15,233 maybe we fix them. 614 00:24:15,233 --> 00:24:18,700 Or we can, you know, buy gasoline cars and you know, 615 00:24:18,700 --> 00:24:21,866 I think we need to be aware of pressure relief valves 616 00:24:21,866 --> 00:24:23,900 for situations like that. 617 00:24:23,900 --> 00:24:27,266 And you know, when somebody cuts off the electric grid, 618 00:24:27,266 --> 00:24:28,600 there's really no substitute. 619 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,366 When somebody cuts off the supply of gasoline, 620 00:24:31,366 --> 00:24:34,066 you know, you're stuck without being able to go anywhere. 621 00:24:34,066 --> 00:24:36,466 It's not exactly the same with battery minerals. 622 00:24:37,133 --> 00:24:38,300 [Scott] In the U.S., 623 00:24:38,300 --> 00:24:41,966 electric cars now make up five percent of new cars sold. 624 00:24:41,966 --> 00:24:43,166 They're expensive though, 625 00:24:43,166 --> 00:24:46,166 and their subsidies have gone mostly to the wealthy. 626 00:24:46,166 --> 00:24:49,966 But EV choices are increasing and costs are decreasing, 627 00:24:49,966 --> 00:24:52,366 which could help further adoption. 628 00:24:52,366 --> 00:24:54,466 Eighty-five percent of global EVs 629 00:24:54,466 --> 00:24:57,500 are sold in Europe and particularly China, 630 00:24:57,500 --> 00:24:59,166 including many scooters. 631 00:24:59,166 --> 00:25:02,400 They use domestic electricity rather than imported oil, 632 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,400 helping with energy security. 633 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,833 But their electricity still comes mostly from coal, 634 00:25:07,833 --> 00:25:10,800 which partially offsets CO2 reductions. 635 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:14,200 Our guests disagreed on the pace of EV adoption, 636 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,266 with David advocating for preserving fuel optionality 637 00:25:17,266 --> 00:25:20,166 and allowing time for the grid to decarbonize, 638 00:25:20,166 --> 00:25:22,900 and Beia pressing for acceleration of EVs, 639 00:25:22,900 --> 00:25:25,666 concerned about the cost of other options. 640 00:25:25,666 --> 00:25:28,466 And there will be challenges with the supply, 641 00:25:28,466 --> 00:25:30,200 politics, price volatility, 642 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,733 and security of the critical minerals needed 643 00:25:32,733 --> 00:25:34,366 to make the batteries. 644 00:25:34,366 --> 00:25:36,633 We'll talk more about subsidies and mandates 645 00:25:36,633 --> 00:25:39,300 in part two of electric cars, 646 00:25:39,300 --> 00:25:41,000 pros and cons. 647 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:50,900 ♪ ♪ 648 00:25:50,900 --> 00:26:00,800 ♪ ♪ 649 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:11,800 ♪ ♪ 650 00:26:12,300 --> 00:26:13,733 [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" 651 00:26:13,733 --> 00:26:16,766 was provided in part by 652 00:26:16,766 --> 00:26:19,333 the University of Texas at Austin, 653 00:26:19,333 --> 00:26:21,800 leading research in energy and the environment 654 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,666 for a better tomorrow. 655 00:26:23,666 --> 00:26:26,166 What starts here changes the world. 656 00:26:27,433 --> 00:26:30,933 And by EarthX, an international nonprofit 657 00:26:30,933 --> 00:26:33,600 working towards a more sustainable future. 658 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,266 See more at earthx.org.