WEBVTT 00:01.300 --> 00:03.100 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% [Scott] Next on "Energy Switch," 00:03.100 --> 00:05.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% we'll look at one of the most important questions 00:05.066 --> 00:06.700 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% in energy today. 00:06.700 --> 00:08.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Could solar and wind power the world? 00:09.466 --> 00:11.800 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - The key here is the relationship 00:11.800 --> 00:14.300 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% between the push for renewables 00:14.300 --> 00:16.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and their impact on reliability. 00:16.833 --> 00:19.033 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% Renewables destabilize the grid. 00:19.033 --> 00:20.800 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - There's a number of studies that show 00:20.800 --> 00:23.500 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% that a well planned grid system 00:23.500 --> 00:25.733 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% with high penetrations of renewables 00:25.733 --> 00:27.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and with modernized operations 00:27.800 --> 00:30.033 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% can be run incredibly reliably. 00:30.033 --> 00:32.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% [Scott] Coming up on "Energy Switch," 00:32.100 --> 00:36.166 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% part one of "Will Solar and Wind Power Our Future?" 00:36.866 --> 00:38.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% [Announcer] Funding for "Energy Switch" 00:38.233 --> 00:40.200 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% was provided in part by 00:40.200 --> 00:41.700 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% Microsoft 00:41.700 --> 00:45.066 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and the University of Texas at Austin. 00:47.700 --> 00:49.000 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - I'm Scott Tinker 00:49.000 --> 00:50.533 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and I'm an energy scientist. 00:51.333 --> 00:52.733 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% I work in the field, 00:52.733 --> 00:53.866 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% lead research, 00:53.866 --> 00:55.500 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% speak around the world, 00:55.500 --> 00:56.700 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% write articles 00:56.700 --> 00:58.800 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and make films about energy. 00:59.633 --> 01:02.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% This show brings together leading experts 01:02.100 --> 01:05.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% on vital topics in energy and climate. 01:05.500 --> 01:07.266 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% They may have different perspectives, 01:07.266 --> 01:10.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% but my goal is to learn and illuminate 01:10.366 --> 01:13.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and bring diverging views together towards solutions. 01:14.433 --> 01:16.933 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Welcome to the "Energy Switch." 01:17.900 --> 01:19.566 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% In part one of this discussion, 01:19.566 --> 01:21.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% we'll talk about the intermittency 01:21.466 --> 01:23.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% of weather-dependent resources. 01:23.800 --> 01:25.266 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% How we could back them up 01:25.266 --> 01:27.933 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% with dispatchable generation sources, 01:27.933 --> 01:30.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% with interconnection to other renewables 01:30.266 --> 01:32.066 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% and with batteries. 01:32.066 --> 01:35.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The challenge is creating a reliable, stable grid 01:35.766 --> 01:38.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% with the ability to serve society's needs 01:38.433 --> 01:40.733 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% as conventional energies have. 01:40.733 --> 01:42.566 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% Joining me today, 01:42.566 --> 01:45.033 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% Leia Guccione is the managing director 01:45.033 --> 01:48.033 align:left position:25% line:5% size:65% for RMI's Carbon-Free Electricity Program, 01:48.033 --> 01:51.333 align:left position:20% line:5% size:70% leading their research in distributed energy and batteries 01:51.333 --> 01:53.633 align:left position:15% line:5% size:75% and a former US Navy officer. 01:54.233 --> 01:56.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Robert Bryce is an energy journalist 01:56.600 --> 01:58.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% writing frequently for major publications, 01:58.933 --> 02:01.300 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% author of six books on energy, 02:01.300 --> 02:05.133 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% a filmmaker and host of the "Power Hungry" podcast. 02:05.400 --> 02:07.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% On this episode of "Energy Switch," 02:07.666 --> 02:10.433 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% will solar and wind power our future? 02:10.433 --> 02:11.633 align:left position:40% line:5% size:50% Part one. 02:11.633 --> 02:12.733 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Got a couple of great guests 02:12.733 --> 02:13.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and look forward to the conversation. 02:13.833 --> 02:15.366 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Let's just dive right in. 02:15.366 --> 02:16.933 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Leia, can you explain the difference 02:16.933 --> 02:19.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% between intermittent and dispatchable electricity? 02:19.133 --> 02:23.100 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - Intermittency is when the output 02:23.100 --> 02:25.966 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% or aspects of the output of a generator 02:25.966 --> 02:29.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% are beyond the control of the generator operator. 02:29.666 --> 02:34.266 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% So, the inability to control the wind, as an example, 02:34.266 --> 02:36.500 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% is a source of intermittency, 02:36.500 --> 02:40.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% the inability to affect whether cloud cover 02:40.266 --> 02:42.766 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% impedes your access to sun, 02:42.766 --> 02:45.800 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% the flow of a river for a hydro facility. 02:45.800 --> 02:48.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% All of those things that are beyond the control 02:48.433 --> 02:50.300 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% of the actual generator operator 02:50.300 --> 02:52.566 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% are a source of intermittency. 02:52.566 --> 02:54.833 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% - Yeah, so it's just not steady 02:54.833 --> 02:56.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and it's not controllably steady, we just don't- 02:56.666 --> 02:57.500 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% - Correct. 02:57.500 --> 02:59.000 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - don't know. 02:59.000 --> 03:01.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Good with that, do you see it the same way? 03:01.433 --> 03:03.266 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - To me, reliability means when I flip on the switch 03:03.266 --> 03:05.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% the lights come on, and that's fundamental. 03:05.666 --> 03:09.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And I think the key here is the relationship 03:09.533 --> 03:12.033 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% between the push for renewables 03:12.033 --> 03:14.266 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and their impact on reliability. 03:14.266 --> 03:15.733 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% And I live in Austin. 03:15.733 --> 03:17.266 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% I was blacked out in February. 03:17.266 --> 03:20.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% There's no one reason why the blackouts occurred. 03:20.666 --> 03:24.066 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% But when you look at where the money was spent in Texas 03:24.066 --> 03:25.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% in the years before the blackouts, 03:25.766 --> 03:27.733 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% almost all of it was spent on wind and solar 03:27.733 --> 03:31.100 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% that wasn't available at 2 a.m. on February 15th 03:31.100 --> 03:32.266 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% when my lights went out. 03:32.266 --> 03:33.333 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% - Right, right. 03:33.333 --> 03:37.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% So reliability, can the operator control it 03:37.033 --> 03:39.333 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% or reliability to the consumer? 03:39.333 --> 03:43.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% What does dispatchable mean, is it different? 03:43.000 --> 03:44.733 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% - Yeah, so it is in some ways 03:44.733 --> 03:47.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% exactly the reciprocal of intermittent 03:47.200 --> 03:50.000 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% in that the operator has control 03:50.000 --> 03:52.566 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% over the dispatch of its generator. 03:52.566 --> 03:56.033 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% And so they have the ability to directly affect the output, 03:56.033 --> 03:57.366 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% to increase the output 03:57.366 --> 04:00.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% or decrease the output of a generator 04:00.100 --> 04:02.200 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% at a given time. 04:02.200 --> 04:05.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% This sort of speed of dispatchability 04:05.033 --> 04:06.733 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% is something that varies by technology 04:06.733 --> 04:11.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% where you have some sources, like large hydro facilities, 04:11.233 --> 04:14.700 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% which are considered dispatchable in some ways, 04:14.700 --> 04:16.366 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% but the speed of their dispatchability 04:16.366 --> 04:17.700 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% is much different 04:17.700 --> 04:21.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% than a fast-acting reciprocating turbine 04:21.933 --> 04:23.333 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% or some other technologies 04:23.333 --> 04:25.300 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% that are also considered dispatchable. 04:25.300 --> 04:27.300 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% - Okay, depending on whether it's a nuclear reactor 04:27.300 --> 04:30.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% or a coal plant or a wind turbine or a hydro facility 04:30.833 --> 04:33.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% or other kinds of things, different timeframes? 04:33.500 --> 04:34.666 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% - Exactly. 04:34.666 --> 04:38.233 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And it's important to know that dispatchable resources 04:38.233 --> 04:41.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% also have their own sources of unreliability 04:41.600 --> 04:43.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% if what we're talking about is the reliability 04:43.600 --> 04:45.100 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% of our system. 04:45.100 --> 04:48.766 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Part of what we saw in the winter storm of Texas 04:48.766 --> 04:51.366 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% is that many dispatchable resources, 04:51.366 --> 04:52.766 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% many coal plants, 04:52.766 --> 04:54.000 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% many gas plants, 04:54.000 --> 04:57.233 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% because there were disruptions to their fuel supplies 04:57.233 --> 05:02.800 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% or their onsite fuel systems had unexpected outages 05:02.800 --> 05:05.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and were not available to be dispatched 05:05.233 --> 05:07.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% when the grid could have benefited from their power. 05:07.966 --> 05:08.900 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% - Extreme events. 05:08.900 --> 05:10.233 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% How do we plan for 'em? 05:10.233 --> 05:11.466 align:left position:37.5% line:83% size:52.5% - Exactly. - How do we manage 'em? 05:11.466 --> 05:13.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Are there studies that show we could make 05:13.033 --> 05:15.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% a renewable system, not maybe a hundred percent, 05:15.633 --> 05:19.600 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% but largely renewable, largely solar and wind reliable, 05:19.600 --> 05:20.500 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% and affordable? 05:20.500 --> 05:21.766 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% Are there studies that counter that? 05:21.766 --> 05:22.700 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Absolutely. 05:22.700 --> 05:24.166 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% There's a number of studies that show 05:24.166 --> 05:28.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% that a well-planned grid system 05:28.400 --> 05:30.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% with high penetrations of renewables 05:30.700 --> 05:32.700 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and with modernized operations 05:32.700 --> 05:35.333 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% can be run incredibly reliably. 05:35.333 --> 05:37.766 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% We're seeing in places like Germany, 05:37.766 --> 05:40.066 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% California and Australia 05:40.066 --> 05:43.500 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that the grid is operating at above 50% 05:43.500 --> 05:45.133 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% and on some days, 05:45.133 --> 05:48.400 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% even above 80% levels of renewable penetration 05:48.400 --> 05:50.366 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% and that system operators 05:50.366 --> 05:53.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% using modern forecasting technologies, 05:53.666 --> 05:56.000 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% modern grid sensing- 05:56.000 --> 05:57.100 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - Weather forecasting? 05:57.100 --> 05:58.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - weather forecasting- - and other kinds of, okay. 05:58.533 --> 06:01.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - and modern grid control capabilities 06:01.466 --> 06:04.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% are able to handle those high levels 06:04.233 --> 06:07.866 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% of renewable penetration quite seamlessly. 06:07.866 --> 06:09.200 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% One of the things that's common, 06:09.200 --> 06:11.900 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% or I should say true in almost all these studies 06:11.900 --> 06:14.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% about whether or not a highly renewable system 06:14.933 --> 06:17.000 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% can be also highly reliable, 06:17.000 --> 06:21.266 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% is that you need to have a diversity of resources. 06:21.266 --> 06:23.566 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% You need to have an interconnected system, 06:23.566 --> 06:25.066 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% you need to have a smart system. 06:25.066 --> 06:29.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And then you need to have modernized operating practices 06:29.133 --> 06:32.933 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% to support the improved reliability 06:32.933 --> 06:34.933 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% of that system, and so there is- 06:34.933 --> 06:37.200 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - Diverse, interconnected, smart controls, 06:37.200 --> 06:38.800 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% and modern practices. 06:38.800 --> 06:39.766 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% [Leia] Mm, hmm. [affirmative] 06:39.766 --> 06:42.200 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - I completely disagree. 06:42.200 --> 06:44.733 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% I mean, I could scarcely disagree more. 06:44.733 --> 06:47.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Where we've seen high penetration of renewables, 06:47.233 --> 06:50.733 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% we've also seen extraordinary increases in prices. 06:50.733 --> 06:51.933 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% Look at California. 06:51.933 --> 06:55.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% In this past year, blackouts in California 06:55.200 --> 06:57.266 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% have become an almost daily event. 06:57.266 --> 06:58.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The price of electricity in California 06:58.533 --> 07:00.633 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% has gone up at a rate seven times 07:00.633 --> 07:02.433 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% the average of the US as a whole. 07:02.433 --> 07:03.700 align:left position:45% line:89% size:45% Why? 07:03.700 --> 07:06.166 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% Because they're pushing so much renewables into the system. 07:06.166 --> 07:08.300 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% Renewables destabilize the grid. 07:08.300 --> 07:10.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% That's what we're seeing now in Europe. 07:10.166 --> 07:12.100 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Europe is in an energy crisis 07:12.100 --> 07:15.066 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that is caused in large part by a headlong rush 07:15.066 --> 07:18.000 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% toward renewables and under investment in hydrocarbons 07:18.000 --> 07:19.600 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and under investment in nuclear. 07:19.600 --> 07:22.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Germany, now some of the highest electricity prices 07:22.133 --> 07:24.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% in the world after their efforts 07:24.833 --> 07:26.766 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% to implement the Energiewende. 07:26.766 --> 07:30.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% South Australia, again, soaring electricity prices 07:30.200 --> 07:32.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% because of this effort to push too much renewables 07:32.433 --> 07:33.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% into the system too quickly. 07:33.833 --> 07:35.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% I brought one line I wanna quote from 07:35.833 --> 07:37.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% because, to me, it's really remarkable. 07:37.600 --> 07:41.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Ben Fowke who is the CEO, now the ex-CEO of Xcel Energy 07:41.133 --> 07:43.166 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% in March of 2021, 07:43.166 --> 07:44.233 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% he testified before the 07:44.233 --> 07:46.300 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. 07:46.300 --> 07:48.833 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% He said, "At higher levels of intermittent renewables, 07:48.833 --> 07:52.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% the cost of the energy system begins to skyrocket 07:52.700 --> 07:54.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and its reliability degrades." 07:54.800 --> 07:57.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Now, this is from the CEO of a large utility 07:57.266 --> 07:59.000 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that has pledged toward net zero. 07:59.000 --> 08:02.166 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% Now, why would he say that in testimony before the Senate 08:02.166 --> 08:03.500 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% if it wasn't true? 08:03.500 --> 08:05.266 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% I have solar panels on the roof of my house. 08:05.266 --> 08:07.066 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Renewables have a place. 08:07.066 --> 08:09.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% But what we're already seeing around the world 08:09.600 --> 08:12.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% is that as renewables increase their percentage 08:12.000 --> 08:14.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% of the share of generation, they're destabilizing the grid 08:14.866 --> 08:16.500 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% and increasing costs. 08:16.500 --> 08:20.533 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - Yeah, I would take issue with that, Robert, 08:20.533 --> 08:22.900 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% because, when we look at, 08:22.900 --> 08:26.300 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% if we take just in the last 12 months alone, 08:26.300 --> 08:29.633 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% the most significant major blackout events 08:29.633 --> 08:31.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% that we've seen here in the United States 08:31.333 --> 08:32.900 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% and also to a certain degree 08:32.900 --> 08:35.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% in other major modern grids, like Europe, 08:35.800 --> 08:39.800 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and we start to do what we would call a root cause analysis 08:39.800 --> 08:41.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% of the failures on the system, 08:41.800 --> 08:44.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% all of them have actually been more so attributed 08:44.833 --> 08:48.533 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% to failures in the fossil generators underperforming 08:48.533 --> 08:51.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% or disruptions in the fossil fuel supply. 08:51.400 --> 08:52.366 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% So if we take-- 08:52.366 --> 08:54.100 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - What were they caused by? 08:54.100 --> 08:56.200 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - By a variety of factors. 08:56.200 --> 08:59.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Right now, what we're seeing play out in Europe 08:59.000 --> 09:02.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% is disruptions in the price and availability 09:02.800 --> 09:07.400 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% of coal, oil and gas and that's causing major disruptions. 09:07.400 --> 09:08.400 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - So, fuel supply issues? 09:08.400 --> 09:11.033 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - You're having fuel supply issues. 09:11.033 --> 09:13.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% When you look at some of the blackouts and brownouts 09:13.433 --> 09:15.300 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% that occurred in California, 09:15.300 --> 09:17.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% it was because of under performance 09:17.233 --> 09:19.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and failures of gas generators 09:19.800 --> 09:23.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% that happened to coincide with climatic events, 09:23.766 --> 09:27.466 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% very significant heat events at the same time. 09:27.466 --> 09:29.566 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% And these dispatchable resources, 09:29.566 --> 09:32.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% in particular the gas generators, weren't available 09:32.800 --> 09:36.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% to perform as the system operators had planned for them. 09:36.833 --> 09:38.066 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% [Scott] Interesting. 09:38.066 --> 09:40.266 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - Similar things happened when you look at the winter storm 09:40.266 --> 09:41.600 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% that affected Texas. 09:41.600 --> 09:44.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% They had slightly below average performance 09:44.600 --> 09:47.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% from the wind and solar on the system 09:47.600 --> 09:50.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but significantly below average performance 09:50.533 --> 09:53.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% from the coal, nuclear, and gas plants. 09:53.200 --> 09:54.700 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - I know the data there pretty good. 09:54.700 --> 09:58.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% In the blackout time, certainly everything went down 09:58.266 --> 10:01.066 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% from Feb. 15 for several days. 10:01.066 --> 10:02.733 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I think important, though, prior to that 10:02.733 --> 10:06.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% for the week from Feb. 7 to Valentine's Day, 10:06.633 --> 10:08.133 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% actually, natural gas was the only thing that rose 10:08.133 --> 10:13.533 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% day-on-day almost 70% of its normal demand in the winter. 10:13.533 --> 10:16.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But you look to where it fell it was actually higher 10:16.000 --> 10:17.566 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% than a normal winter. 10:17.566 --> 10:20.333 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% So, I think that the timing matters of things too 10:20.333 --> 10:21.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% as we look at grid stability. 10:21.833 --> 10:23.100 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - The timing matters a lot. 10:23.100 --> 10:26.466 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% And the problem with renewables is that they will produce 10:26.466 --> 10:29.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% energy when energy isn't in high demand. 10:29.233 --> 10:31.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And that's exactly what we saw at 2 a.m. 10:31.966 --> 10:34.600 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% on February 15th of 2021 when my lights went out. 10:34.600 --> 10:35.866 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% I live in Central Austin. 10:35.866 --> 10:37.733 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% They stayed off for 45 hours. 10:37.733 --> 10:40.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Well, the amount of power available at that moment 10:40.566 --> 10:41.766 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% was effectively zero. 10:41.766 --> 10:44.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% All that wind and solar went to Cancun with Ted Cruz, 10:44.800 --> 10:46.700 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% it just wasn't available. 10:46.700 --> 10:47.966 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Well-- 10:47.966 --> 10:51.500 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% - So this idea that the thermal generation is to blame, no. 10:51.500 --> 10:53.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% What were the assets that performed best 10:53.966 --> 10:55.266 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% during winter storm Uri? 10:55.266 --> 10:57.766 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% It was the assets that had fuel on site. 10:57.766 --> 10:59.733 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% It was the coal and nuclear plants. 10:59.733 --> 11:00.833 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% So, when you look at that, 11:00.833 --> 11:03.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% you mentioned that the days before the blackout, 11:03.233 --> 11:06.300 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% wind did great on about January 31st when it was a nice day, 11:06.300 --> 11:07.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and wind even backs out natural gas, 11:07.733 --> 11:09.133 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and it even backs out some coal, 11:09.133 --> 11:10.500 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% but it was completely unavailable 11:10.500 --> 11:12.200 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% at the moment of crisis, 11:12.200 --> 11:15.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and that's the critical issue for reliability. 11:15.233 --> 11:18.800 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Why are we spending so much money on generation assets 11:18.800 --> 11:21.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that we can't depend on when the chips are down? 11:21.533 --> 11:22.633 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% - It's interesting you bring up 11:22.633 --> 11:23.866 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% those specific points, though, Robert, 11:23.866 --> 11:27.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% 'cause when you look at the data that ERCOT, 11:27.166 --> 11:30.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% the system operator in Texas, reported, 11:30.733 --> 11:34.733 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% while yes, there are a number of generators that had fuel on site 11:34.733 --> 11:36.866 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that were able to continue operating. 11:36.866 --> 11:38.833 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% You also had a number of coal plants 11:38.833 --> 11:40.633 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% that had frozen coal piles-- 11:40.633 --> 11:41.466 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Fair point. 11:41.466 --> 11:42.666 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - and had to shut down. 11:42.666 --> 11:44.800 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% You had several nuclear facilities, 11:44.800 --> 11:46.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% because of the extreme cold temperatures, 11:46.700 --> 11:48.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% had problems with their cooling systems 11:48.466 --> 11:50.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and had to shut down for safety reasons. 11:50.966 --> 11:52.433 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% The other thing about your point 11:52.433 --> 11:55.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% about that investment in solar and wind is 11:55.033 --> 11:56.866 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Texas has a competitive market, 11:56.866 --> 12:00.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and so it's been private investors 12:00.100 --> 12:02.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% who see an economic opportunity to do so. 12:02.833 --> 12:05.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Well, and that's a fair point, and I'll grant you that. 12:05.066 --> 12:06.866 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% But why was that much money spent? 12:06.866 --> 12:09.733 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Because the federal tax incentives 12:09.733 --> 12:11.200 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% for solar, for instance, 12:11.200 --> 12:15.100 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% in 2018, 250 times greater than what was given to nuclear. 12:15.100 --> 12:17.900 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Wind energy, 160 times greater. 12:17.900 --> 12:20.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% The federal subsidies for wind and solar 12:20.233 --> 12:22.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% have completely distorted the wholesale market, 12:22.733 --> 12:25.000 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% and they've made it uneconomic for thermal generators 12:25.000 --> 12:27.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% to survive and thrive in Texas. 12:27.400 --> 12:28.800 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% So, what do we see now? 12:28.800 --> 12:31.666 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% This distortion is continuing in the Texas market 12:31.666 --> 12:34.366 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% where if you look at what's in the ERCOT queue today, 12:34.366 --> 12:36.900 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% 35 gigawatts of new capacity 12:36.900 --> 12:38.366 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% is going to be installed in Texas. 12:38.366 --> 12:41.200 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Not a single watt of thermal generation-- 12:41.200 --> 12:44.200 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% 25 gigawatts of solar and 11 gigawatts of wind, 12:44.200 --> 12:46.066 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% all driven by tax incentives, 12:46.066 --> 12:47.766 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% none of it driven by the need 12:47.766 --> 12:50.633 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% for resilience and reliability and that's a problem. 12:50.633 --> 12:52.366 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - Well, and I would say that actually gets 12:52.366 --> 12:56.600 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% to a market flaw in Texas-- 12:56.600 --> 12:57.700 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Absolutely. 12:57.700 --> 12:59.033 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% - that's under valuing the value 12:59.033 --> 13:01.666 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% of resilience and reliability in the market products. 13:01.666 --> 13:03.100 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - I completely, completely agree. 13:03.100 --> 13:04.933 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - And that's where, if we want to have 13:04.933 --> 13:08.700 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% these highly-renewable, low-carbon 13:08.700 --> 13:11.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and reliable grid systems in the future, 13:11.733 --> 13:13.666 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% we not only need different 13:13.666 --> 13:15.300 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and a diversity of technologies, 13:15.300 --> 13:18.200 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% but we're going to need new market structures 13:18.200 --> 13:20.800 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% with new market rules that are ready to create 13:20.800 --> 13:22.766 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% the right financial incentives 13:22.766 --> 13:24.866 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% for these resources to be built 13:24.866 --> 13:26.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% in the places we need them to be built, 13:26.833 --> 13:29.766 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% operated in a way that supports 13:29.766 --> 13:31.833 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% both the financial interest behind them 13:31.833 --> 13:33.466 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% but the performance of the grid. 13:33.466 --> 13:34.466 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% [Scott] Sure. 13:34.466 --> 13:35.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - And I'll agree with most of what you said 13:35.900 --> 13:37.266 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% except for the renewable part. 13:37.266 --> 13:38.666 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% And what I don't understand 13:38.666 --> 13:42.300 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% is why there's this emphasis that it has to be renewable? 13:42.300 --> 13:44.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Nuclear is being lost in this equation. 13:44.833 --> 13:47.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And if we're seeing more extreme weather, 13:47.233 --> 13:48.766 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% and it appears that we are, 13:48.766 --> 13:51.833 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% why are we building more assets that are weather dependent? 13:51.833 --> 13:54.933 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% We need to be less vulnerable to extreme weather events. 13:54.933 --> 13:57.833 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% The solar and wind don't give us that attribute, 13:57.833 --> 13:59.133 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% and that's my concern. 13:59.133 --> 14:01.566 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% Over the long term is that we're losing 14:01.566 --> 14:03.500 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% this focus on resilience and reliability. 14:03.500 --> 14:05.566 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And this should be a top concern for policymakers 14:05.566 --> 14:08.066 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% all over this country and unfortunately it's not. 14:08.066 --> 14:09.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% - You've mentioned diversity. 14:09.833 --> 14:11.400 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% You both have. 14:11.400 --> 14:14.033 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% That's both in the fuels and diversity 14:14.033 --> 14:17.500 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% in the kinds of equipment, resilient, affordable equipment. 14:17.500 --> 14:19.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% We're talking about solar and wind. 14:19.200 --> 14:21.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% We know there's clouds and there's night and things, 14:21.966 --> 14:24.900 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% so there are times when they're not working, 14:24.900 --> 14:27.733 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and you need something else... 14:27.733 --> 14:29.000 align:left position:37.5% line:89% size:52.5% redundant. 14:29.000 --> 14:32.866 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% If it's a grid that has to meet a certain amount of demand, 14:32.866 --> 14:34.300 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% and it's there, 14:34.300 --> 14:36.533 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% then you have to have something else there 14:36.533 --> 14:37.566 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% when they're not there. 14:37.566 --> 14:38.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% So, how do we deal with that? 14:38.833 --> 14:41.700 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% What are the options for redundancy, 14:41.700 --> 14:45.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% or whatever word you want to use for that, backup? 14:45.300 --> 14:46.333 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% How do we do that? 14:46.333 --> 14:47.966 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% What does that look like? 14:47.966 --> 14:50.800 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% - I'll just give one quick point right here which is that, 14:50.800 --> 14:53.733 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% as I said, renewables have a place, 14:53.733 --> 14:56.633 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% but the fundamental problem when you try and build 14:56.633 --> 14:59.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% a renewable system that is all renewable 14:59.633 --> 15:02.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% or almost all renewable, is the scale of the system. 15:02.733 --> 15:05.466 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% You have to overbuild it to such a massive scale 15:05.466 --> 15:06.900 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% that you can't do it. 15:08.466 --> 15:10.933 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% We talked about the idea of models, 15:10.933 --> 15:12.500 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and some models show this can be done. 15:12.500 --> 15:14.700 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% Well, you look at some of these models, 15:14.700 --> 15:16.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% and, like one that was put forward by Mark Jacobson 15:16.966 --> 15:18.433 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% that has been thoroughly debunked, 15:18.433 --> 15:22.800 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% but it requires 5 1/2 terawatts of installed capacity. 15:22.800 --> 15:24.733 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% The US today has about 1.1 terawatt, 15:24.733 --> 15:26.800 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% 1,100 gigawatts of installed capacity. 15:26.800 --> 15:28.133 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% - So five times? 15:28.133 --> 15:31.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% - Five times the existing overall size of the grid 15:31.700 --> 15:32.966 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% in the United States today. 15:32.966 --> 15:34.066 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% - So, that one's debunked. 15:34.066 --> 15:35.733 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But are there other ones that are less than that? 15:35.733 --> 15:36.966 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% - Or you look at the solar study 15:36.966 --> 15:39.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% that the Biden Administration put out a few months ago, 15:39.233 --> 15:42.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% calling for to get to 40% renewables, or 40% solar, 15:42.933 --> 15:45.633 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% 1.6 terawatts just of solar. 15:45.633 --> 15:47.300 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% This is a massive overbuild. 15:47.300 --> 15:48.500 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Where are you going to put it? 15:48.500 --> 15:49.633 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% How are you going to connect it? 15:49.633 --> 15:50.966 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% How are you going to pay for it? 15:50.966 --> 15:52.500 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% All of these things are interconnected. 15:52.500 --> 15:56.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% But this need for resilience and reliability, 15:56.900 --> 15:58.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% yeah, but we have to be careful that we don't design 15:58.933 --> 16:01.633 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% a system that requires so much steel, so much copper, 16:01.633 --> 16:03.700 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% so much polysilicon, neodymium, lanthanum, 16:03.700 --> 16:05.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% all these other things that it overwhelms 16:05.600 --> 16:07.400 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% the ability of consumers to pay for it. 16:07.400 --> 16:10.033 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So, the reliability as resilience, affordability, 16:10.033 --> 16:13.933 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% all comes together around the scale of the grid 16:13.933 --> 16:15.266 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% and how it's designed. 16:15.266 --> 16:18.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - This conversation of redundancy and backup, 16:18.233 --> 16:20.800 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% is there in diversity, really. 16:20.800 --> 16:23.766 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% In addition to backing up with more wind and solar, 16:23.766 --> 16:25.300 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% what are the options? 16:25.300 --> 16:26.633 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% What do we bring to the table? 16:26.633 --> 16:27.633 align:left position:35% line:89% size:55% - Absolutely. 16:27.633 --> 16:31.100 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% First off, I would say our current system, 16:31.100 --> 16:33.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% actually, already has a lot of redundancy. 16:33.866 --> 16:35.000 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% And that's by design. 16:35.000 --> 16:37.500 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So the North American Electric Reliability Council, 16:37.500 --> 16:41.333 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% also known as NERC, actually has recommended standards 16:41.333 --> 16:44.966 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% for what's called resource adequacy or reserve margin. 16:44.966 --> 16:46.433 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% And so in most of the country, 16:46.433 --> 16:48.966 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that reserve margin is expected to be maintained 16:48.966 --> 16:51.533 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% between 15 and 25%. 16:51.533 --> 16:53.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And that's so that we don't have blackouts, 16:53.833 --> 16:56.966 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% so that we have modern, reliable, predictable 16:56.966 --> 16:59.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% electric service that our economy depends on. 16:59.266 --> 17:01.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - So, more capacity than is needed 17:01.900 --> 17:03.100 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% at any one time? - Yes. 17:03.100 --> 17:05.566 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% And we'll continue to see a certain amount of redundancy 17:05.566 --> 17:08.166 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% as we build more wind, more solar 17:08.166 --> 17:10.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% and deploy other technologies onto the grid. 17:10.666 --> 17:13.200 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% And we should be careful about thinking about redundancy 17:13.200 --> 17:15.033 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% as a bad thing because, 17:15.033 --> 17:16.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% I like to think that in some ways, 17:16.400 --> 17:18.033 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% it's a feature, not a bug. 17:18.033 --> 17:21.433 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% The thing we want to avoid is economically inefficient 17:21.433 --> 17:23.266 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% levels of redundancy. 17:23.266 --> 17:28.533 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% And so, if we're able to use excess wind and solar 17:28.533 --> 17:30.866 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that doesn't need to be delivered to the grid, 17:30.866 --> 17:32.833 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% but instead to produce hydrogen, 17:32.833 --> 17:35.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% to charge a battery, perhaps, that's co-located 17:35.400 --> 17:36.566 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% to the facility, 17:36.566 --> 17:39.400 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% that redundancy's actually a feature. 17:39.400 --> 17:41.466 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% It's an asset that we have. 17:41.466 --> 17:44.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Other things though that we can use in the system 17:44.233 --> 17:49.366 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% to help us avoid redundancy are things like, one, diversity. 17:49.366 --> 17:54.566 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% You know, the sun... 17:54.566 --> 17:57.233 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% the shining of the sun has a very predictable pattern 17:57.233 --> 18:00.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% that has existed as long as the Earth has existed. 18:00.966 --> 18:02.833 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% Now, whether or not the clouds 18:02.833 --> 18:04.666 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% will impede access to the sun, 18:04.666 --> 18:06.333 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% that's less predictable. 18:06.333 --> 18:07.800 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% Wind also has patterns. 18:07.800 --> 18:09.633 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% But one of the things that we know 18:09.633 --> 18:13.333 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% is that by designing an interconnected system 18:13.333 --> 18:15.433 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% or having a diversity of resources 18:15.433 --> 18:18.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% so that maybe when the sun's not shining 18:18.000 --> 18:19.466 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% but the wind is blowing, 18:19.466 --> 18:21.433 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% we still have power. 18:21.433 --> 18:24.466 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So having diversity of resources is one way. 18:24.466 --> 18:25.833 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - I wanna make sure I, 18:25.833 --> 18:31.600 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% so, if I have 100 units working of solar in the day, 18:31.600 --> 18:32.800 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% and it gets cloudy, 18:32.800 --> 18:36.766 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% does that mean I need 100 units of wind available then? 18:36.766 --> 18:39.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% What's redundant, is it 2X kind of thing? 18:39.166 --> 18:41.133 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% What, kind of, 18:41.133 --> 18:44.433 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% coming back to managing this grid 18:44.433 --> 18:45.966 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% with more solar and wind on it, 18:45.966 --> 18:48.433 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% am I back to natural gas load-following plants, 18:48.433 --> 18:51.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% something that has to come on quick and go off? 18:51.000 --> 18:51.966 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% What do we do? 18:51.966 --> 18:53.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% I've talked to some solar and wind folks. 18:53.766 --> 18:56.633 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% They don't want any natural gas on the planet. 18:56.633 --> 18:58.366 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% Others are a lot more, 18:58.366 --> 19:00.900 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% "Yeah, we're going to need some load-following plants 19:00.900 --> 19:03.033 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% for a long time to manage that." 19:03.033 --> 19:04.466 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% Where are we on that? 19:04.466 --> 19:07.233 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - I would say from the research that RMI, 19:07.233 --> 19:11.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% the organization I work for, does, 19:11.666 --> 19:16.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% we don't need any new natural gas plants. 19:17.333 --> 19:21.166 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% That being said, we don't want to get rid of the gas plants 19:21.166 --> 19:23.833 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% we have in many instances. 19:23.833 --> 19:26.466 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% We just want to run them a lot less 19:26.466 --> 19:29.666 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and look at how we can run them 19:29.666 --> 19:32.233 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% or add either a carbon-reducing 19:32.233 --> 19:34.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% or an emissions-capturing technology. 19:34.200 --> 19:35.233 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% - How do you see that? 19:35.233 --> 19:36.733 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% - Here's my take on natural gas, 19:36.733 --> 19:39.533 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and I've said this for more than a decade. 19:39.533 --> 19:41.300 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Where should we be going? 19:41.300 --> 19:42.466 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% Natural gas and nuclear. 19:42.466 --> 19:46.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% These are the lower or zero-carbon sources 19:46.200 --> 19:48.700 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% that we can deploy at scale. 19:48.700 --> 19:50.966 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% The resources and the technologies are well developed, 19:50.966 --> 19:52.566 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% and they have small footprints. 19:52.566 --> 19:55.366 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% So, this idea that we don't need any more gas plants, 19:55.366 --> 19:57.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% well, that's not the case here in Texas 19:57.833 --> 19:59.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% where we're seeing a lot of population growth. 19:59.966 --> 20:01.666 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% You're seeing population growth in Colorado. 20:01.666 --> 20:03.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% You're going to need more thermal generation 20:03.333 --> 20:05.033 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% to assure a reliable grid. 20:05.033 --> 20:06.466 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 20:06.466 --> 20:10.533 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% So what are the challenges 20:10.533 --> 20:12.500 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% or the pros and cons, really, 20:12.500 --> 20:13.600 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% of utility-scale batteries? 20:13.600 --> 20:15.900 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% Where are we on batteries? 20:15.900 --> 20:16.800 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% You know. 20:16.800 --> 20:17.900 align:left position:42.5% line:89% size:47.5% - Yeah. 20:17.900 --> 20:21.966 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% So, right now the bulk of the global battery market, 20:21.966 --> 20:25.466 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% it is batteries for vehicle applications. 20:25.466 --> 20:27.800 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% You still see a lot of innovation in 20:27.800 --> 20:29.366 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% personal electronics 20:29.366 --> 20:30.900 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% which is what actually jump-started the 20:30.900 --> 20:32.833 align:left position:30% line:89% size:60% battery industry. 20:32.833 --> 20:35.966 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% But now the global auto making 20:35.966 --> 20:39.033 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% is what's driving the battery market. 20:39.033 --> 20:42.333 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Batteries for distributed applications on the grid, 20:42.333 --> 20:45.233 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% so, that power wall you might want to put in your home 20:45.233 --> 20:49.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% or that backup battery system for a building, 20:49.000 --> 20:51.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% that and then also what you call utility scale. 20:51.233 --> 20:53.666 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% They're still less than a quarter 20:53.666 --> 20:56.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% of the total global battery market. 20:57.566 --> 21:00.000 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% That, in some ways, that is for utility scale 21:00.000 --> 21:02.966 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% battery applications, a challenge in and of itself 21:02.966 --> 21:05.266 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% because LG Chem and the other people 21:05.266 --> 21:06.633 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% who are making the batteries, 21:06.633 --> 21:10.600 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% their attention is on the auto sector. 21:10.600 --> 21:13.566 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% The other challenge for utility scale 21:13.566 --> 21:18.433 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% is that you still have a lot of diversity of chemistries, 21:18.433 --> 21:21.266 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% technologies, and configurations that you're seeing. 21:21.266 --> 21:23.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% There's no clear winner in the utility scale 21:23.800 --> 21:25.766 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% battery technology space right now. 21:25.766 --> 21:29.633 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% So, that's both part of what's driving innovation 21:29.633 --> 21:34.100 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% but also that, because you still have that much diversity, 21:34.100 --> 21:35.800 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% if I'm an investor, 21:35.800 --> 21:37.533 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% I see risk in that. 21:37.533 --> 21:38.366 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% - Right. 21:38.366 --> 21:39.633 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% - If I'm a grid operator, 21:39.633 --> 21:41.700 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% I see some uncertainty in that. 21:41.700 --> 21:44.733 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And so that's part of what's still causing them 21:44.733 --> 21:46.300 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% to be more expensive. 21:46.300 --> 21:49.033 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% But those are all things that we know will happen 21:49.033 --> 21:51.966 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% when a market is new and will, 21:51.966 --> 21:55.433 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% through forces of competition and good regulation, 21:55.433 --> 21:57.133 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% should work themselves out. 21:57.133 --> 21:59.966 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% - Yeah, they could. 21:59.966 --> 22:02.300 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% We've had batteries for a long time. 22:02.300 --> 22:03.300 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% [Leia] True, yeah, absolutely. 22:03.300 --> 22:06.800 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Can I jump in on the battery thing? 22:06.800 --> 22:09.233 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% From the days of Volta to Edison to today, 22:09.233 --> 22:10.966 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% the batteries have gotten better, 22:10.966 --> 22:12.000 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% but they still stink. 22:12.000 --> 22:14.233 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% I mean, you can't charge them too fast. 22:14.233 --> 22:16.500 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% You can't charge them too slow, you can't discharge. 22:16.500 --> 22:19.166 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% Like Goldilocks, everything has to be just right. 22:19.166 --> 22:21.400 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% It can't be too hot, it can't be too cold. 22:21.400 --> 22:23.133 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And further, what is clear is that higher 22:23.133 --> 22:24.700 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% the energy density in the battery, 22:24.700 --> 22:26.766 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% the greater the volatility or the reactivity. 22:26.766 --> 22:29.900 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% And just in the last few months we saw a battery fire 22:29.900 --> 22:32.866 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% in a utility scale battery facility in California. 22:32.866 --> 22:34.366 align:left position:32.5% line:89% size:57.5% It caught fire. 22:34.366 --> 22:36.200 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% They asked the local fire department stay on site 22:36.200 --> 22:39.700 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% for six days in case the battery caught on fire again. 22:39.700 --> 22:44.700 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% So, it's still a problematic technology at a utility scale. 22:44.700 --> 22:46.366 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% And we even see it in automobiles, 22:46.366 --> 22:48.000 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% where if they're involved in an accident, 22:48.000 --> 22:50.866 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% they catch fire and they can take 30 or 40,000 gallons 22:50.866 --> 22:52.333 align:left position:20% line:89% size:70% of water to put them out. 22:52.333 --> 22:55.300 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% Batteries need to get better, 22:55.300 --> 22:56.466 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% and I agree completely with Leia 22:56.466 --> 22:58.300 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% in that we need a new chemistry 22:58.300 --> 23:01.600 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% and solid state batteries may be the next big thing. 23:01.600 --> 23:05.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% But still, to deploy them at scale, 23:05.100 --> 23:08.166 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% and we need them at the gigawatt and terawatt hour scale, 23:08.166 --> 23:09.433 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% it's an enormous challenge. 23:09.433 --> 23:10.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% And it's gonna take, not just years, 23:10.900 --> 23:12.900 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% it's going to take decades to deploy them 23:12.900 --> 23:14.433 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% at that kind of scale. 23:14.433 --> 23:16.200 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% And further, to me, the question is, 23:16.200 --> 23:17.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% is it going to be to back up renewables 23:17.833 --> 23:19.400 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% or the coal and nuclear plants 23:19.400 --> 23:20.600 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% going to be charging those batteries 23:20.600 --> 23:23.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% during off times and then discharging during peak times? 23:23.166 --> 23:26.033 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% So, the batteries can actually reinforce 23:26.033 --> 23:28.166 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% some of the incumbent generation sources 23:28.166 --> 23:29.366 align:left position:22.5% line:89% size:67.5% rather than renewables. 23:29.366 --> 23:30.500 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% [Scott] Yeah. Interesting. 23:30.500 --> 23:31.933 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% - Batteries are going to have a role. 23:31.933 --> 23:33.766 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% But this idea that they're going to ride to the rescue, 23:33.766 --> 23:35.533 align:left position:37.5% line:83% size:52.5% I think is fundamentally misguided. 23:35.533 --> 23:39.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - So, in a timeframe, if climate is a driver, 23:39.100 --> 23:40.833 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and we have a certain amount of time, 23:40.833 --> 23:42.433 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% we've got to do things faster than that. 23:42.433 --> 23:44.000 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% - One of the things that I think helps, 23:44.000 --> 23:46.666 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% that we haven't talked about, 23:46.666 --> 23:49.033 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% is an over reliance on energy. 23:49.033 --> 23:51.933 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% I want to be careful about overusing the Texas example, 23:51.933 --> 23:54.600 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% but there's a tremendous amount we can do 23:54.600 --> 23:57.933 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% with improving what we call the demand side 23:57.933 --> 23:59.200 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% of our energy needs. 23:59.200 --> 24:01.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Less than a third of buildings in Texas 24:01.900 --> 24:06.100 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% are considered to be built to modern 1990s plus 24:06.100 --> 24:07.300 align:left position:25% line:89% size:65% efficiency standards. 24:07.300 --> 24:09.400 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% [Scott] Insulation, windows. 24:09.400 --> 24:12.666 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% - Building envelope, the plug loads, 24:12.666 --> 24:15.233 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and appliances within the buildings and so- 24:15.233 --> 24:18.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - So we're just wasting energy that you could save-- 24:18.000 --> 24:20.466 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% - Exactly, yeah. - and do the same thing. 24:20.466 --> 24:24.666 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% - Some building energy professionals in Texas 24:24.666 --> 24:26.233 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% looked at, as an example, the difference 24:26.233 --> 24:30.933 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% between a 1960s house that had been retrofitted 24:30.933 --> 24:33.833 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% to best available efficiency technologies 24:33.833 --> 24:39.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% and then a very similar 1960s vintage home that hadn't. 24:39.133 --> 24:41.166 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% The home that had been retrofitted, 24:41.166 --> 24:42.700 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% even though it lost power, 24:42.700 --> 24:44.600 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% it maintained an interior temperature 24:44.600 --> 24:49.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% in the mid 50s for the entire duration of the winter storm 24:49.133 --> 24:50.833 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% when they were without power. 24:50.833 --> 24:53.300 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% Whereas the building that hadn't been insulated 24:53.300 --> 24:57.133 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% and retrofitted, it was down to in the 30s or the 20s 24:57.133 --> 24:59.433 align:left position:10% line:89% size:80% within 12 hours of losing power. 24:59.433 --> 25:01.633 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% And so there's a lot of opportunity 25:01.633 --> 25:04.866 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% for us to improve in our building stock 25:04.866 --> 25:09.000 align:left position:22.5% line:83% size:67.5% and use the demand side of the electricity system 25:09.000 --> 25:11.866 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% as a resource in and of itself. 25:11.866 --> 25:13.666 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% [Scott] Solar and wind are intermittent. 25:13.666 --> 25:17.033 align:left position:12.5% line:83% size:77.5% They don't produce electricity when there's no sun or wind. 25:17.033 --> 25:19.166 align:left position:12.5% line:89% size:77.5% So, they need redundant backup, 25:19.166 --> 25:22.166 align:left position:20% line:83% size:70% usually from dispatchable sources like natural gas. 25:22.166 --> 25:25.400 align:left position:15% line:83% size:75% But even those aren't always dependable in extreme weather. 25:25.400 --> 25:28.366 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Robert says solar and wind destabilize the grid 25:28.366 --> 25:30.566 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% and make electricity more expensive. 25:30.566 --> 25:34.233 align:left position:10% line:83% size:80% Leia says that to make a largely renewable system reliable, 25:34.233 --> 25:38.233 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% we need some combination of a smart interconnected grid, 25:38.233 --> 25:41.900 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% diverse resources and modernized operating practices. 25:41.900 --> 25:43.700 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% Those aren't easy or cheap. 25:43.700 --> 25:45.266 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% And our initial experiences with them 25:45.266 --> 25:47.033 align:left position:17.5% line:89% size:72.5% have been less than ideal. 25:47.033 --> 25:48.900 align:left position:30% line:83% size:60% Battery solutions have been focused 25:48.900 --> 25:51.166 align:left position:15% line:89% size:75% on the transportation sector. 25:51.166 --> 25:53.000 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% Grid scale batteries have challenges 25:53.000 --> 25:55.866 align:left position:35% line:83% size:55% of competing chemistries and safety. 25:55.866 --> 25:57.366 align:left position:27.5% line:89% size:62.5% Both guests agreed, 25:57.366 --> 26:00.533 align:left position:17.5% line:83% size:72.5% we have not focused enough on resilience in the system. 26:00.533 --> 26:03.333 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% We'll hear more from them on part two of 26:03.333 --> 26:06.266 align:left position:25% line:83% size:65% "Could Solar and Wind Power Our Future?" 26:07.066 --> 26:16.966 align:left position:47.5% line:89% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:16.966 --> 26:27.600 align:left position:47.5% line:89% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:27.600 --> 26:35.866 align:left position:47.5% line:89% size:42.5% ♪ ♪ 26:36.566 --> 26:38.100 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% [Announcer] Funding for "Energy Switch" 26:38.100 --> 26:40.066 align:left position:32.5% line:83% size:57.5% was provided in part by 26:40.066 --> 26:41.566 align:left position:40% line:89% size:50% Microsoft 26:41.566 --> 26:45.533 align:left position:27.5% line:83% size:62.5% and the University of Texas at Austin.