THAT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS

SUMMER.

60 YEARS AGO FORTUNE MAGAZINE

PUBLISHED A BOOK TITLED THE

FABULOUS FUTURE, AMERICA IN

1980.

THEIR PREDICTIONS INCLUDING FREE

ENERGY, BOOMING DESERTS AND

WORLD PEACE AND EVEN THOUGH MANY

HAVE NOT COME TRUE, THEY WERE

STILL WRITTEN BY SOME GRAY

THINKERS OF THE TIME.

IN THE NEW BOOK, THE FABULOUS

FUTURE, AMERICA ON AND THE WORLD

THIS 2040 BOLD PREDICTIONS ARE

MADE ABOUT LIFE 25 YOURS FROM

NOW.

HERE TO SHARE THEIR LATEST WORK

ARE HUMANITIES PROFESSOR GARY

SAUL MORSON AND NORTHWESTERN

UNIVERSITY PRESIDENT MORTON

SCHAPIRO.

AND THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

YOU BROUGHT A COPY OF THE ON

MONEY 55 BOOK.

-- OF THE 1955 BOOK.

AND AS WE LOOK AT THE COVER OF

THE BOOK.

WHAT KIND OF BATTING AVERAGE DID

THE CONTRIBUTORS HAVE?

>> IT COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER.

THESE ARE SOME THE SMARTEST

PEOPLE IN THE WORLD AT THE TIME.

AND THEY KEPT GETTING IT WRONG.

>> WHEN YOU SAY IT COULD HAVE

BEEN BETTER, IT WAS BAD, IN

TERMS OF SOME OF THE THINGS THEY

PREDICTED.

GIVE US SOME EXAMPLES OF THE

KINDS OF THINGS THEY PREDICT

THAT WOULD COME TO BE IN 1 NINE

8 HAVE.

A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN NUCLEAR

POWER.

THEY WERE ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED,

ONE OF THE AUTHORS SAID BEYOND

DOUBT, THAT OUR REFRIGERATORS OR

AUTOMOBILES WILL HAVE NUCLEAR

POWERED ENGINES IN THEM.

THEY SAID WE WOULD DELIVER MAIL

THROUGH INTER-CONTINENTAL

MISSILES.

>> IN COMING MAIL.

>> AND I THINK WHAT WAS MUST

AMAZING ARGUABLY THE SMARTEST

PEOPLE, THEY KNEW A LOT ABOUT

THEIR FIELDS.

BUT THEY WROTE THIS IN 1955 AND

IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE NEXT TEN

OR FIVE TEENS YEARS AND THE

WOMEN'S MOVEMENT AND CIVIL

RIGHTS, THIS ENTIRE BOOK, THEY

NEVER MENTIONED THE WORD WOMAN

OR FEMALE.

THEY NEVER MENTION

AFRICAN-AMERICAN, NEGRO BLACK.

THEY MENTION MINORITIES IN ONE

SENTENCE.

AND THAT IS IT.

PROFESSOR MORSON, THEY PROJECTED

INDIVIDUALS WOULD HAVE THEIR OWN

HELICOPTERS AND A WORLD POLICE

FORCE.

WHAT DID THEY NOT FORESEE?

>> THEY DIDN'T FORESEE THE

INFORMATION REVOLUTION.

AND THAT IS QUITE REMARKABLE

BECAUSE ONE OF THE ARC TICKETS--

ARCHITECTS WAS THE INVENTOR THE

AN IMPORTANT NUCLEAR SIZS SIFT

AND IDENTIFIED FOR HIS

CONTRIBUTIONS TO PHYSICS.

ATOMIC POWER WAS WHAT PEOPLE

WERE REALLY CONCERNED WITH.

THAT WAS THE FUTURE.

EXPLOITING ENERGY SO THAT FOSSIL

FUELS WOULDN'T BE NEEDED ANY

MORE.

A PREDICTION THAT ENERGY WOULD

BE FREE, THERE WOULD BE SO MUCH

OF IT YOU WOULDN'T METER IT.

THEY FAILED PO SEE THE FALL OF

THE SOVIET UNION.

AND WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH

ISLAM.

AND POINTS FOR AWARENESS, BOTH

OF YOU FLAT-OUT ACKNOWLEDGE YOUR

GUESSES, THE GUESSES BY THE

CONTRIBUTORS COULD VERY WELL

LOOK AS ABSURD IN THE FUTURE.

IT IS HUMBLEING TO WRITE A BOOK,

WE HAD THIS IDEA, TO TEACH THIS

COURSE TOGETHER, AND STUDENTS

LIKE IT, AND THEY LIKE TO LAUGH

AND OCCASIONALLY SOMETHING IS

GOOD AND THEY GET EXCITED ABOUT

IT.

THEY SAID YOU SHOULD UPDATE THIS

AND GET REALLY GREAT PEOPLE,

ARIANNA HEAVYING TENNESSEE TO

STALK ABOUT THE MEDIA AND FUTURE

STATES AND SO WE DID.

WE WERE VERY HUMBLED AS YOU SAW.

HISTORY SUGGESTS... THIS ISED A

LAY STEVENSON AND SKON MEANEY,

NOT SECOND RIGHT MINDS.

>> IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT WE

COULD DO ANY BETTER.

LET'S GET SOME OF THE

PREDICTIONS THAT ARE BEING MADE

BY YOUR CONTRACT CONTRIBUTE

FORS.

DRIVERLESS CARS.

THERE SEEMS TO BE EQUAL

CONFIDENCE THAT CARS AND TRUCKS,

A LARGE COMPONENT WITH THE

DRIVERLESS.

WHAT IS THE ARGUMENT BEHIND

THAT?

>> THERE IS A CHAPTER AHEAD OF

IBM RESEARCH ON TECHNOLOGY AND

REALLY INTERESTING ONE ON

SCIENCE.

TECHNOLOGY THAT ONE THINKS

DRIVERLESS CARS AND A WHOLE

BUNCH OF DIFFERENT INNOVATIONS

WILL BE IN PLACE THIS 25 YEARS

AND IT IS PROBABLY REASONABLE TO

BELIEVE THAT.

>> THEY ARE ALREADY DOING IT.

THE REE PREDICTION IS FOR

SOMETHING THAT ISN'T THERE.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT SOMETHING

ELSE THAT IS NEAR AND DEAR TO

MOST PEOPLE'S HEARTS AND THAT IS

LIFE EXPECTANCY.

THE PREDICTION IS SURPRISING.

BECAUSE THAT IS THAT PEOPLE WILL

NOT LIVE SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER.

WHY IS THAT THE CASE WITH

ASSIGNS AND IMMEDIATE AND AND

DRUGS?

>> EVEN SCARIER, IF THEY DO THE

QUALITY OF LIFE, THE YEARS OF

GOOD LIVING WILL NOT BE MUCH

LONGER.

SO THE INCREASED LIFE WILL BE

INCREASED LIFE.

THAT IS, YOU WILL BE IN NURSING

HOMES OR BE ABLE TO FUNCTION,

THAT IS DEPRESSING.

IF IT'S LONGER IT WON'T BE GOOD

LONGER.

AND YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MANY OF

THE PREDICTIONS MADE IN THIS

ADDITION ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC

AS THE ONES IN 1955.

WHY NOT?

>> THEY CALL IT THE FABULOUS

FUTURE.

THEY DIDN'T HAVE A QUESTION

MARK, WE ADDED A QUESTION MARK.

THESE WERE VERY OPTIMISTIC

PEOPLE, THEY TALKED ABOUT THE

FUTURE OF HEALTH CARE AND THE

POLITICAL FUTURE.

YOU KNOW, FUTURE OF HUMAN RIGHT

AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND SCIENCE

AND TECHNOLOGY AND EVERYONE SAID

BOY THIS IS REALLY A FABULOUS

FUTURE.

AND ONE OF THE CHAPTERS BY

EILEEN CRIMMONS IS PROBABLY THE

MOST DEPRESSING.

THIS IDEA THAT WE MIGHT LIVE A

LITTLE LONGER BUT OUR NUMBER OF

HEALTHY YEARS IS GOING TO STAY

ABOUT PROBABLY NOT GOING TO

INCREASE AT ALL.

THAT IS VERY SAD.

A TERM IN THE BOOK THE PROFESSOR

CALLED BLACK SWANS.

WHAT IS A BLACK SWAN IN THE

CONTEXT OF THIS BOOK?

>> THAT MEANS AN EVENT THAT

ISN'T LIKELY TO HAPPEN BUT IF IT

DOES WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING.

THESE ARE THE ONES THAT YOU WANT

TO PREDICT AND YOU CAN'T.

>> ONE THAT IS PARTICULARLY

TERRIFYING, IT SAYS THAT IT

POSES THE POSSIBILITY OF A

SIMULTANEOUS DEATH NATION OF

NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS IN FOUR

AMERICAN CITIES, AND NEW YORK,

WASHINGTON, CHICAGO AND HOUSTON.

ELABORATE ON THAT AND WHAT THE

BASIS OF THAT WAS?

>> THE IDEA WAS THAT THAT WOULD

BE THE WAY A UP FROM OF

TERRORISTS COULD MOST DEMORALIZE

THE POPULATION.

NOT WITH JUST ONE ATTACK THAT

PEOPLE COULD RESPOND TO BUT THE

SENSE THERE WOULD BE SEVERAL ALL

AT ONCE AND MAKE PEOPLE FEEL

HELPLESS.

AND SO, SINCE NUCLEAR WEAPONS,

IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR

TERRORIST TO GET AHOLD OF THEM

AND DELIVER THEM WITHOUT A

MISSILE ATTACK.

WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF COULD YOU

DO THAT?

YOU MIGHT DO THIS, PUTTING

HIMSELF IN THE MIND OF A

TERRORIST AND WHAT THEY WOULD

WANT TO DO.

>> MOVING TO SOMETHING THAT

RELATE MORE TO INDIVIDUALS,

MORTON SCHAPIRO, ONE CONTRIBUTOR

SAYS HE PREDICTS, I BELIEVE A

HE, BRAIN SCANS THAT WILL IN

ESSENCE BE ABLE TO READ YOUR

MIND AND KNOW WHAT YOU ARE

THINKING?

>> THAT IS MARK RATNER, AND A

BRILLIANT CHEMIST.

HIS ESSAY WAS REALLY PRETTY MUCH

OUT THERE.

THE ON THE ONE, HE WAS CONFIDENT

WE WILL DISCOVER WITHIN LIFE ON

OTHER PLANETS.

SO I'M AN ECONOMIST, SO AS

RUSSIAN LITERATURE PROFESSOR, WE

ARE READING THIS.

A WORLD CLASS SCIENCIST.

THAT WOULD BE A GAME CHANGER.

WHAT DO YOUR CONTRIBUTORS SAY

ABOUT AMERICA'S PLACE IN THE

WORLD.

THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS I

THINK THE BOOK IS MUCH LESS

OPTIMISTIC.

YOU THINK OF 1955 THE DOMINANT

ROLE THE U.S. HAD AND IT LOOKS

LIKE WHAT WE WANTED TO HAVE

HAPPEN WE COULD MAKE HAPPEN.

AND SINCE THAT IS NOT, OUR

VALUES, WE ARE LESS AND LESS

ABLE TO PROJECT OUR VALUES.

ABOUT THE WORK IN THE AREA OF

EDUCATION AND YOU WROTE THE

CONTRIBUTION ON PREDICTING WHAT

WILL HAPPEN IN THE WORLD OF

EDUCATION.

SUCH AS?

I THINK THE KEY THING IS WHAT

WILL HAPPEN TO THE RIGHT OF

RETURN TO A COLLEGE DEGREE.

A BAP ALREADIES AND WHEN I

GRADUATED IN THE MID70s IT TOOK

22 TO EARN ENOUGH MONEY TO PAY

TUITION AND FEES, ROOM AND BOARD

AND MONEY THAT YOU GAVE AWAY IN

COLLEGE.

NOW IT TAKES NINE YEARS.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE

OFFSHORING OF JOBS THAT DON'T

REQUIRE COLLEGE DEGREES AND I

THINK I ALONG WITH MANY ARE

OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THAT.

WE DO WORRY ABOUT WHAT WILL BE

TAUGHT.

MAYBE SAUL WILL SAY SOMETHING

ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE

HUMANITIES.

SUCH AN EMPHASIS ON STEM, ANYONE

WHO IS AN ENGLISH MAJOR OR

HISTORY, THAT PERSON IS DOING

SOMETHING BY FOOLING THAT MAJOR.

>> YOU HAVE TO ASK WHAT THE

HUMANITIES ARE GOOD FOR AND ONE

OF THE THINGS THEY ARE GOOD FOR

IF PROPERLY TAUGHT IS TO PUT,

THEY TEACH YOU TO PUT YOURSELF

IN THE POSITION OF SOMEONE

UNLIKE YOURSELF.

YOU READ A GREAT NOVEL THAT

HAYES YOU DO, YOU WITH A PERSON

OF THE OPPOSITE SEX, A DIFFERENT

NATIONALITY.

YOU DO IT PAGE BY PAGE.

THAT ABILITY TO EMFA THIGHS WITH

DIFFERENT POINTS OF VIEW, THAT

IS SORELY LACKING IN OUR

CULTURE, AND YOU WILL NOT BE

ABLE TO OVERCOME THAT, TO REALLY

UNDERSTAND THAT PEOPLE SEE THE

WORD DIFFERENTLY, BY STOP AND GO

STEM SUBJECTS.

PRESIDENT MORTON SCHAPIRO WHO DO

YOU WANT PEOPLE TO TAKE AWAY

FROM THE BOOK?

>> THAT IT'S REALLY HARD TO

PREDICT THE FUTURE.

THE PRESIDENT OF HARVARD IN 1955

SAID HIS BIGGEST WORRY ABOUT

EDUCATION WAS ALL THAT WE WOULD

DO IS TEACH SCIENCE AND NOT THE

INTELLECTUAL CORE OF THE THAT

MANITIES.

EARL WARREN SAID HIS BIG WORRY

WAS TO KEEP US SAFE FROM THE

RUSSIANS, THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR

POWER, AND SPUTNIK AND CUBAN

MISSILE CRISIS, THAT WE WOULD BE

WILLING TO GUT THE BILL OF RIGHT

AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE DOING

NOW, SOME SAY.

WHEN YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE, IT

IS REALLY HUMBLING AND ONE THING

WE SAID AT THE END THIS BECOME

TONE TEACH YOU ABOUT HOW YOU GOT

TO THE PRESENT IT TEACHES YOU

ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE WERE THINKING

ABOUT IN THE 50s.

WHAT WERE THEIR GREATEST HOPES

AND FEARS.

AND IF YOU READ THIS BOOK, I