THAT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS
SUMMER.
60 YEARS AGO FORTUNE MAGAZINE
PUBLISHED A BOOK TITLED THE
FABULOUS FUTURE, AMERICA IN
1980.
THEIR PREDICTIONS INCLUDING FREE
ENERGY, BOOMING DESERTS AND
WORLD PEACE AND EVEN THOUGH MANY
HAVE NOT COME TRUE, THEY WERE
STILL WRITTEN BY SOME GRAY
THINKERS OF THE TIME.
IN THE NEW BOOK, THE FABULOUS
FUTURE, AMERICA ON AND THE WORLD
THIS 2040 BOLD PREDICTIONS ARE
MADE ABOUT LIFE 25 YOURS FROM
NOW.
HERE TO SHARE THEIR LATEST WORK
ARE HUMANITIES PROFESSOR GARY
SAUL MORSON AND NORTHWESTERN
UNIVERSITY PRESIDENT MORTON
SCHAPIRO.
AND THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
YOU BROUGHT A COPY OF THE ON
MONEY 55 BOOK.
-- OF THE 1955 BOOK.
AND AS WE LOOK AT THE COVER OF
THE BOOK.
WHAT KIND OF BATTING AVERAGE DID
THE CONTRIBUTORS HAVE?
>> IT COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER.
THESE ARE SOME THE SMARTEST
PEOPLE IN THE WORLD AT THE TIME.
AND THEY KEPT GETTING IT WRONG.
>> WHEN YOU SAY IT COULD HAVE
BEEN BETTER, IT WAS BAD, IN
TERMS OF SOME OF THE THINGS THEY
PREDICTED.
GIVE US SOME EXAMPLES OF THE
KINDS OF THINGS THEY PREDICT
THAT WOULD COME TO BE IN 1 NINE
8 HAVE.
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN NUCLEAR
POWER.
THEY WERE ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED,
ONE OF THE AUTHORS SAID BEYOND
DOUBT, THAT OUR REFRIGERATORS OR
AUTOMOBILES WILL HAVE NUCLEAR
POWERED ENGINES IN THEM.
THEY SAID WE WOULD DELIVER MAIL
THROUGH INTER-CONTINENTAL
MISSILES.
>> IN COMING MAIL.
>> AND I THINK WHAT WAS MUST
AMAZING ARGUABLY THE SMARTEST
PEOPLE, THEY KNEW A LOT ABOUT
THEIR FIELDS.
BUT THEY WROTE THIS IN 1955 AND
IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE NEXT TEN
OR FIVE TEENS YEARS AND THE
WOMEN'S MOVEMENT AND CIVIL
RIGHTS, THIS ENTIRE BOOK, THEY
NEVER MENTIONED THE WORD WOMAN
OR FEMALE.
THEY NEVER MENTION
AFRICAN-AMERICAN, NEGRO BLACK.
THEY MENTION MINORITIES IN ONE
SENTENCE.
AND THAT IS IT.
PROFESSOR MORSON, THEY PROJECTED
INDIVIDUALS WOULD HAVE THEIR OWN
HELICOPTERS AND A WORLD POLICE
FORCE.
WHAT DID THEY NOT FORESEE?
>> THEY DIDN'T FORESEE THE
INFORMATION REVOLUTION.
AND THAT IS QUITE REMARKABLE
BECAUSE ONE OF THE ARC TICKETS--
ARCHITECTS WAS THE INVENTOR THE
AN IMPORTANT NUCLEAR SIZS SIFT
AND IDENTIFIED FOR HIS
CONTRIBUTIONS TO PHYSICS.
ATOMIC POWER WAS WHAT PEOPLE
WERE REALLY CONCERNED WITH.
THAT WAS THE FUTURE.
EXPLOITING ENERGY SO THAT FOSSIL
FUELS WOULDN'T BE NEEDED ANY
MORE.
A PREDICTION THAT ENERGY WOULD
BE FREE, THERE WOULD BE SO MUCH
OF IT YOU WOULDN'T METER IT.
THEY FAILED PO SEE THE FALL OF
THE SOVIET UNION.
AND WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH
ISLAM.
AND POINTS FOR AWARENESS, BOTH
OF YOU FLAT-OUT ACKNOWLEDGE YOUR
GUESSES, THE GUESSES BY THE
CONTRIBUTORS COULD VERY WELL
LOOK AS ABSURD IN THE FUTURE.
IT IS HUMBLEING TO WRITE A BOOK,
WE HAD THIS IDEA, TO TEACH THIS
COURSE TOGETHER, AND STUDENTS
LIKE IT, AND THEY LIKE TO LAUGH
AND OCCASIONALLY SOMETHING IS
GOOD AND THEY GET EXCITED ABOUT
IT.
THEY SAID YOU SHOULD UPDATE THIS
AND GET REALLY GREAT PEOPLE,
ARIANNA HEAVYING TENNESSEE TO
STALK ABOUT THE MEDIA AND FUTURE
STATES AND SO WE DID.
WE WERE VERY HUMBLED AS YOU SAW.
HISTORY SUGGESTS... THIS ISED A
LAY STEVENSON AND SKON MEANEY,
NOT SECOND RIGHT MINDS.
>> IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT WE
COULD DO ANY BETTER.
LET'S GET SOME OF THE
PREDICTIONS THAT ARE BEING MADE
BY YOUR CONTRACT CONTRIBUTE
FORS.
DRIVERLESS CARS.
THERE SEEMS TO BE EQUAL
CONFIDENCE THAT CARS AND TRUCKS,
A LARGE COMPONENT WITH THE
DRIVERLESS.
WHAT IS THE ARGUMENT BEHIND
THAT?
>> THERE IS A CHAPTER AHEAD OF
IBM RESEARCH ON TECHNOLOGY AND
REALLY INTERESTING ONE ON
SCIENCE.
TECHNOLOGY THAT ONE THINKS
DRIVERLESS CARS AND A WHOLE
BUNCH OF DIFFERENT INNOVATIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS 25 YEARS
AND IT IS PROBABLY REASONABLE TO
BELIEVE THAT.
>> THEY ARE ALREADY DOING IT.
THE REE PREDICTION IS FOR
SOMETHING THAT ISN'T THERE.
>> LET'S TALK ABOUT SOMETHING
ELSE THAT IS NEAR AND DEAR TO
MOST PEOPLE'S HEARTS AND THAT IS
LIFE EXPECTANCY.
THE PREDICTION IS SURPRISING.
BECAUSE THAT IS THAT PEOPLE WILL
NOT LIVE SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER.
WHY IS THAT THE CASE WITH
ASSIGNS AND IMMEDIATE AND AND
DRUGS?
>> EVEN SCARIER, IF THEY DO THE
QUALITY OF LIFE, THE YEARS OF
GOOD LIVING WILL NOT BE MUCH
LONGER.
SO THE INCREASED LIFE WILL BE
INCREASED LIFE.
THAT IS, YOU WILL BE IN NURSING
HOMES OR BE ABLE TO FUNCTION,
THAT IS DEPRESSING.
IF IT'S LONGER IT WON'T BE GOOD
LONGER.
AND YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MANY OF
THE PREDICTIONS MADE IN THIS
ADDITION ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC
AS THE ONES IN 1955.
WHY NOT?
>> THEY CALL IT THE FABULOUS
FUTURE.
THEY DIDN'T HAVE A QUESTION
MARK, WE ADDED A QUESTION MARK.
THESE WERE VERY OPTIMISTIC
PEOPLE, THEY TALKED ABOUT THE
FUTURE OF HEALTH CARE AND THE
POLITICAL FUTURE.
YOU KNOW, FUTURE OF HUMAN RIGHT
AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND SCIENCE
AND TECHNOLOGY AND EVERYONE SAID
BOY THIS IS REALLY A FABULOUS
FUTURE.
AND ONE OF THE CHAPTERS BY
EILEEN CRIMMONS IS PROBABLY THE
MOST DEPRESSING.
THIS IDEA THAT WE MIGHT LIVE A
LITTLE LONGER BUT OUR NUMBER OF
HEALTHY YEARS IS GOING TO STAY
ABOUT PROBABLY NOT GOING TO
INCREASE AT ALL.
THAT IS VERY SAD.
A TERM IN THE BOOK THE PROFESSOR
CALLED BLACK SWANS.
WHAT IS A BLACK SWAN IN THE
CONTEXT OF THIS BOOK?
>> THAT MEANS AN EVENT THAT
ISN'T LIKELY TO HAPPEN BUT IF IT
DOES WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING.
THESE ARE THE ONES THAT YOU WANT
TO PREDICT AND YOU CAN'T.
>> ONE THAT IS PARTICULARLY
TERRIFYING, IT SAYS THAT IT
POSES THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SIMULTANEOUS DEATH NATION OF
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS IN FOUR
AMERICAN CITIES, AND NEW YORK,
WASHINGTON, CHICAGO AND HOUSTON.
ELABORATE ON THAT AND WHAT THE
BASIS OF THAT WAS?
>> THE IDEA WAS THAT THAT WOULD
BE THE WAY A UP FROM OF
TERRORISTS COULD MOST DEMORALIZE
THE POPULATION.
NOT WITH JUST ONE ATTACK THAT
PEOPLE COULD RESPOND TO BUT THE
SENSE THERE WOULD BE SEVERAL ALL
AT ONCE AND MAKE PEOPLE FEEL
HELPLESS.
AND SO, SINCE NUCLEAR WEAPONS,
IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR
TERRORIST TO GET AHOLD OF THEM
AND DELIVER THEM WITHOUT A
MISSILE ATTACK.
WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF COULD YOU
DO THAT?
YOU MIGHT DO THIS, PUTTING
HIMSELF IN THE MIND OF A
TERRORIST AND WHAT THEY WOULD
WANT TO DO.
>> MOVING TO SOMETHING THAT
RELATE MORE TO INDIVIDUALS,
MORTON SCHAPIRO, ONE CONTRIBUTOR
SAYS HE PREDICTS, I BELIEVE A
HE, BRAIN SCANS THAT WILL IN
ESSENCE BE ABLE TO READ YOUR
MIND AND KNOW WHAT YOU ARE
THINKING?
>> THAT IS MARK RATNER, AND A
BRILLIANT CHEMIST.
HIS ESSAY WAS REALLY PRETTY MUCH
OUT THERE.
THE ON THE ONE, HE WAS CONFIDENT
WE WILL DISCOVER WITHIN LIFE ON
OTHER PLANETS.
SO I'M AN ECONOMIST, SO AS
RUSSIAN LITERATURE PROFESSOR, WE
ARE READING THIS.
A WORLD CLASS SCIENCIST.
THAT WOULD BE A GAME CHANGER.
WHAT DO YOUR CONTRIBUTORS SAY
ABOUT AMERICA'S PLACE IN THE
WORLD.
THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS I
THINK THE BOOK IS MUCH LESS
OPTIMISTIC.
YOU THINK OF 1955 THE DOMINANT
ROLE THE U.S. HAD AND IT LOOKS
LIKE WHAT WE WANTED TO HAVE
HAPPEN WE COULD MAKE HAPPEN.
AND SINCE THAT IS NOT, OUR
VALUES, WE ARE LESS AND LESS
ABLE TO PROJECT OUR VALUES.
ABOUT THE WORK IN THE AREA OF
EDUCATION AND YOU WROTE THE
CONTRIBUTION ON PREDICTING WHAT
WILL HAPPEN IN THE WORLD OF
EDUCATION.
SUCH AS?
I THINK THE KEY THING IS WHAT
WILL HAPPEN TO THE RIGHT OF
RETURN TO A COLLEGE DEGREE.
A BAP ALREADIES AND WHEN I
GRADUATED IN THE MID70s IT TOOK
22 TO EARN ENOUGH MONEY TO PAY
TUITION AND FEES, ROOM AND BOARD
AND MONEY THAT YOU GAVE AWAY IN
COLLEGE.
NOW IT TAKES NINE YEARS.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE
OFFSHORING OF JOBS THAT DON'T
REQUIRE COLLEGE DEGREES AND I
THINK I ALONG WITH MANY ARE
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THAT.
WE DO WORRY ABOUT WHAT WILL BE
TAUGHT.
MAYBE SAUL WILL SAY SOMETHING
ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE
HUMANITIES.
SUCH AN EMPHASIS ON STEM, ANYONE
WHO IS AN ENGLISH MAJOR OR
HISTORY, THAT PERSON IS DOING
SOMETHING BY FOOLING THAT MAJOR.
>> YOU HAVE TO ASK WHAT THE
HUMANITIES ARE GOOD FOR AND ONE
OF THE THINGS THEY ARE GOOD FOR
IF PROPERLY TAUGHT IS TO PUT,
THEY TEACH YOU TO PUT YOURSELF
IN THE POSITION OF SOMEONE
UNLIKE YOURSELF.
YOU READ A GREAT NOVEL THAT
HAYES YOU DO, YOU WITH A PERSON
OF THE OPPOSITE SEX, A DIFFERENT
NATIONALITY.
YOU DO IT PAGE BY PAGE.
THAT ABILITY TO EMFA THIGHS WITH
DIFFERENT POINTS OF VIEW, THAT
IS SORELY LACKING IN OUR
CULTURE, AND YOU WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THAT, TO REALLY
UNDERSTAND THAT PEOPLE SEE THE
WORD DIFFERENTLY, BY STOP AND GO
STEM SUBJECTS.
PRESIDENT MORTON SCHAPIRO WHO DO
YOU WANT PEOPLE TO TAKE AWAY
FROM THE BOOK?
>> THAT IT'S REALLY HARD TO
PREDICT THE FUTURE.
THE PRESIDENT OF HARVARD IN 1955
SAID HIS BIGGEST WORRY ABOUT
EDUCATION WAS ALL THAT WE WOULD
DO IS TEACH SCIENCE AND NOT THE
INTELLECTUAL CORE OF THE THAT
MANITIES.
EARL WARREN SAID HIS BIG WORRY
WAS TO KEEP US SAFE FROM THE
RUSSIANS, THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR
POWER, AND SPUTNIK AND CUBAN
MISSILE CRISIS, THAT WE WOULD BE
WILLING TO GUT THE BILL OF RIGHT
AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE DOING
NOW, SOME SAY.
WHEN YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE, IT
IS REALLY HUMBLING AND ONE THING
WE SAID AT THE END THIS BECOME
TONE TEACH YOU ABOUT HOW YOU GOT
TO THE PRESENT IT TEACHES YOU
ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE WERE THINKING
ABOUT IN THE 50s.
WHAT WERE THEIR GREATEST HOPES
AND FEARS.
AND IF YOU READ THIS BOOK, I