WEBVTT

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AMERICA'S FERTILITY RATE HAS

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FALLEN TO A 30-YEAR LOW AND THE

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GENERAL FERTILITY RATE, THE RATE

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AT WHICH WOMEN BETWEEN 15-44 ARE

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HAVING CHILDREN HAS ALSO SUNK TO

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A RECORD LOW OF 60 BIRTHS PER

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1,000 WOMEN.

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ACCORDING TO THE CDC BIRTH RATES

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IN WOMEN IN THEIR 20s FELL BY

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4%.

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IS THIS AN INDICATOR THAT WOMEN

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ARE TAKING MORE CONTROL OVER

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THEIR REPRODUCTIVE CHOICES?

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JOINING US IS CHRISTINE

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PERCHESKI, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR

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OF SOCIOLOGY AT NORTHWESTERN

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UNIVERSITY AND STUDIES

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DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND HOW THEY

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RELATE TO CHANGING PATTERNS OF

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SOCIAL INEQUALITY.

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AND CHRISTINE PERCHESKI THANK

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YOU FOR BEING HERE.

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AND BACK TO THE ISSUE OF WE SEE

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THE HEADLINES OF THIS FALLING

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RATE.

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WHY IS THIS RATE GOING DOWN?

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>> WELL, WE ARE NOT ENTIRELY

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SURE YET BUT THE RATE IS FALLING

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MOST AMONG TEENAGE WOMEN AND

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WOMEN IN THEIR 20s.

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THIS IS PART OF A BROADER TREND

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OF WOMEN WAITING LATER TO HAVE

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THEIR CHILDREN AND MANY OF US

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WOULD AGREE THAT IT IS A GOOD

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THING FOR TEENAGE WOMEN NOT TO

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BE HAVING CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN

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THEIR EARLY 20s MANY ARE

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TRYING TO GET A COLLEGE DEGREE

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OR POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION SO

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IT IS NOT NECESSARILY A BAD

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THING THAT WOMEN ARE WAITING TO

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BE A LITTLE OLDER.

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>> ANY OTHER REASONS BESIDES

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POSSIBLY THE DELAY IN HAVING

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CHILDREN THAT SOME WOMEN MIGHT

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BE CHOOSING TO DO?

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>> WELL, ECONOMIC NOT EVERYONE

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HAS RECOVERED FROM THE RECESSION

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AND WE SEE THAT YOUNG ADULTS

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HAVE MORE EDUCATION DEBT AND

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THIS COULD BE PART OF IT.

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A LOT OF FAMILIES ARE TRYING TO

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WAIT UNTIL THEY HAVE MORE OF AN

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ECONOMIC CUSHION AND MARRIAGE

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RATES ARE GOING DOWN IN THE

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COUNTRY AND MOST INDUSTRIALIZED

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COUNTRIES AND WE SEE THAT MOST

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WOMEN HAVE THEIR BIRTHS WITHIN

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MARRIAGE.

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THIS IS PART OF A LARGER TREND.

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>> A COUPLE OF THOSE TRENDS

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SOUNDS LIKE WHAT YOU ARE SAYING

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IT MIGHT BE WHAT?

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A TEMPORARY THING.

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>> COULD BE.

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>> WHERE IN A FEW YEARS WOMEN

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WHO HAVE DELAYED HAVING CHILDREN

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FOR ECONOMIC REASONS OR BECAUSE

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THEY HAD COLLEGE DEBT OR

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WHATEVER THAT THE FERTILITY

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RATES MIGHT KICK UP?

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>> THAT RIGHT.

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AND WE DON'T KNOW IT FOR ANOTHER

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FEW YEARS.

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>> BY THE WAY, HELP US

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UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE

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BETWEEN FERTILITY RATES AND

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BIRTH RATES?

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WE ARE TALKING ABOUT FERTILITY

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RATES?

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>> RIGHT.

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THIS IS IN THE WEEDS TALK BUT

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THE BIRTH RATE IS THE NUMBER OF

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BIRTHS PER THOUSAND PEOPLE IN

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THE POPULATION.

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BUT THAT INCLUDES BABIES AND

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SENIOR CITIZENS SO THAT IS NOT

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THE MOST USEFUL NUMBER.

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THE NUMBER WE WANT TO THINK

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ABOUT IS THE NUMBER OF BIRTHS

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HER THOUSAND WOMEN OF

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CHILDBEARING AGE SO IT'S NOT

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CONFUSED WITH SOMETHING ELSE.

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AND WE WANT TO FOCUS ON THE

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GENERAL FERTILITY RATE.

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>> IS THERE A REASON TO BE

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CONCERNED BY A DECLINING

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FERTILITY RATE?

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CAN IT BE AN INDICATOR OF NOT

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JUST SOME OF THE THINGS THAT

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PEOPLE MIGHT BE DOING BY CHOICE

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BUT OTHER FACTORS, INCLUDING

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MAYBE NEGATIVE ECONOMIC TRENDS?

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>> RIGHT.

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SO LARGE DECLINES IN THE BIRTH

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RATE WE WANT TO BE CONCERNED

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ABOUT IN INDUSTRIALIZED

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COUNTRIES OR WE WANT TO KNOW

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WHAT IS GOING ON.

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SO WE OFTEN SEE THAT THE BIRTH

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RATE FALLS DURING MAJOR WARS

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CLEARLY THAT IS A SOCIAL PROBLEM

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AN INDICATOR.

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IF THE BIRTH RATE OR THE

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FERTILITY RATE WERE TO FALL A

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LOT WE MIGHT BE CONCERNED BUT

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THE SMALL FLUCTUATIONS DO NOT

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PRESENT A PROBLEM.

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>> 4% IN 2017 YOU CONSIDER THAT

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A SMALL FLUCTUATION?

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>> YES, AND NO.

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IT'S LARGER THAN WE'VE SEEN BUT

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IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN THAT

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WOMEN ARE GOING TO HAVE FEWER

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CHILDREN OVER THEIR LIFETIME.

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WE DON'T KNOW YET.

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>> HOW ABOUT OTHER

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INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES WHAT

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ARE THEY SEEING IN TERMS OF

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FERTILITY RATES?

04:00.200 --> 04:04.966 align:start position:10% line:74% size:22.5%
>> RIGHT.

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WELL, THE U.S. FERTILITY RATE

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WAS HIGHER THAN MOST OTHER

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INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES FOR A

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LONGTIME.

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AND SO WE ARE COMING CLOSER

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GETTING IN LINE WITH OUR

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EUROPEAN COUNTRIES.

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SO OUR BIRTH RATE IS STILL

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HIGHER THAN GERMANY, ITALY,

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SPAIN, GREECE AND OTHER

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COUNTRIES.

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AND SO WE MIGHT JUST BE GETTING

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CLOSER TO THE NORMA MUNG

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INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES.

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>> PERHAPS THE UNITED STATES

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HAS BEEN FOR WANT OF A BETTER

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TERM, LUCKY IN THE SENSE THAT

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OUR FERTILITY RATE BIRTH RATE

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HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT OR

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GROWING?

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>> WELL, IT HAS NOT BEEN GROWING

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BUT IT'S BEEN CONSTANT

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THROUGHOUT THE 90s AND THE

04:44.933 --> 04:49.133 align:start position:10% line:74% size:17.5%
2000'S.

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AND SO WE STARTED TO SEE THIS

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DECLINE DURING THE GREAT

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RECESSION.

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AND SO WE JUST DON'T KNOW YET

04:51.133 --> 04:55.233 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE

04:52.600 --> 04:57.000 align:start position:10% line:74% size:17.5%
FUTURE.

04:52.933 --> 04:58.600 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
>> AS I UNDERSTAND IT THE U.S.

04:55.233 --> 04:58.900 align:start position:10% line:74% size:62.5%
FERTILITY RATE HAS FALLEN

04:57.000 --> 05:02.300 align:start position:10% line:74% size:70%
FURTHER THAN THE REPLACEMENT

04:58.600 --> 05:04.533 align:start position:10% line:74% size:12.5%
RATE.

04:58.900 --> 05:05.866 align:start position:10% line:74% size:45%
IS THAT A PROBLEM?

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>> AGAIN, SOME PEOPLE THINK SO.

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MOST PROFESSIONALS DO NOT.

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IT MEANS IF THERE WERE NO

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MIGRATION, THE SIZE OF THE

05:09.666 --> 05:14.633 align:start position:10% line:74% size:62.5%
POPULATION WOULD START TO

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DECLINE OVER TIME.

05:12.033 --> 05:17.000 align:start position:10% line:74% size:65%
BUT WE ARE NOT A LOT UNDER

05:14.633 --> 05:18.133 align:start position:10% line:74% size:42.5%
REPLACEMENT RATE.

05:15.333 --> 05:19.366 align:start position:10% line:74% size:70%
AND WE DON'T KNOW IF IT WILL

05:17.000 --> 05:21.566 align:start position:10% line:74% size:40%
CONTINUE OR NOT.

05:18.133 --> 05:23.000 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
AND MANY OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE

05:19.366 --> 05:24.933 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
BEEN BELOW REPLACEMENT RATE FOR

05:21.566 --> 05:26.566 align:start position:10% line:74% size:20%
A WHILE.

05:23.000 --> 05:28.933 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
AND SOME HAVE FOUND IT TO BE A

05:24.933 --> 05:30.233 align:start position:10% line:74% size:65%
PROBLEM BUT MOST HAVE NOT.

05:26.566 --> 05:31.400 align:start position:10% line:74% size:60%
IF WE ADAPT OUR POLICIES

05:28.933 --> 05:34.366 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
SLIGHTLY, WE DON'T HAVE TO WORRY

05:30.233 --> 05:36.833 align:start position:10% line:74% size:22.5%
ABOUT IT.

05:31.400 --> 05:38.333 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
>> BECAUSE SO MANY PEOPLE WORRY

05:34.366 --> 05:41.566 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
OR WONDER IF AS BABY-BOOMERS ARE

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AGING IS THERE GOING TO BE

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ENOUGH OF A YOUNGER WORKFORCE TO

05:41.566 --> 05:44.800 align:start position:10% line:74% size:70%
MAINTAIN SOCIAL SECURITY AND

05:42.766 --> 05:46.933 align:start position:10% line:74% size:55%
THOSE KINDS OF THINGS.

05:44.366 --> 05:48.733 align:start position:10% line:74% size:22.5%
>> RIGHT.

05:44.800 --> 05:49.766 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
>> IS THAT A LEGITIMATE FEAR?

05:46.933 --> 05:51.333 align:start position:10% line:74% size:60%
>> THINK TO SOME DEGREE.

05:48.733 --> 05:52.900 align:start position:10% line:74% size:67.5%
HOWEVER, MAINTAINING SOCIAL

05:49.766 --> 05:54.200 align:start position:10% line:74% size:65%
SECURITY IS MORE ABOUT OUR

05:51.333 --> 05:56.133 align:start position:10% line:74% size:65%
FISCAL POLICIES AND HOW WE

05:52.900 --> 05:57.633 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
BUDGET FOR SOCIAL SECURITY AND

05:54.200 --> 05:58.000 align:start position:10% line:74% size:52.5%
IT'S LESS ABOUT SMALL

05:56.133 --> 05:59.666 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SIZE OF THE

05:57.633 --> 05:59.933 align:start position:10% line:74% size:25%
WORKFORCE.

05:58.000 --> 06:02.666 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
WE HAVE A LARGE WORKFORCE IN THE

05:59.666 --> 06:02.966 align:start position:10% line:74% size:10%
U.S.

05:59.933 --> 06:04.933 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
AND WE STILL HAVE HIGH MIGRATION

06:02.666 --> 06:06.233 align:start position:10% line:74% size:15%
RATES.

06:02.966 --> 06:07.566 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
SO WE DON'T THINK WE NEED TO BE

06:04.933 --> 06:09.166 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
CONCERNED ABOUT THE LABOR FORCE

06:06.233 --> 06:11.866 align:start position:10% line:74% size:22.5%
SIZE YET.

06:07.566 --> 06:15.600 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
>> BACK TO WHAT YOU JUST ELUDED

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TO THE MIGRATION RATES RIGHT NOW

06:11.866 --> 06:19.766 align:start position:10% line:74% size:55%
IS HOW BIG A ROLE DOES

06:15.600 --> 06:21.133 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
IMMIGRATION PLAY IN MAINTAINING

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THE POPULATION AT A RATE THAT IS

06:19.766 --> 06:25.633 align:start position:10% line:74% size:60%
HELPFUL FOR THE ECONOMY?

06:21.133 --> 06:27.366 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
>> YOU KNOW, THE U.S. HAS LONG

06:24.133 --> 06:29.133 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
BEEN A COUNTRY OF IMMIGRANTS AND

06:25.633 --> 06:30.500 align:start position:10% line:74% size:70%
WE HAVE GONE THROUGH PERIODS

06:27.366 --> 06:31.566 align:start position:10% line:74% size:57.5%
WHERE WE HAVE HAD FEWER

06:29.133 --> 06:34.800 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
IMMIGRANTS AND PERIODS WITH A

06:30.500 --> 06:36.233 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
LARGER SHARE OF THE POPULATION

06:31.566 --> 06:37.533 align:start position:10% line:74% size:50%
THAT ARE IMMIGRANTS.

06:34.800 --> 06:40.200 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
IT'S IMPORTANT TO OUR NATIONAL

06:36.233 --> 06:42.300 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
IDENTITY AND IT'S IMPORTANT TO

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OUR WORKFORCE AND WE ARE RIGHT

06:40.200 --> 06:45.566 align:start position:10% line:74% size:65%
NOW, THE PERCENTAGE OF NEW

06:42.300 --> 06:47.500 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
IMMIGRANTS WE HAVE COMING TO THE

06:43.400 --> 06:49.466 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
U.S. HAS FALLEN WITH SOME OF THE

06:45.566 --> 06:49.833 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
POLICIES IN PLACE AND WITH THE

06:47.500 --> 06:51.366 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
ECONOMIC DOWNTURN OF THE GREAT

06:49.466 --> 06:53.833 align:start position:10% line:74% size:25%
RECESSION.

06:49.833 --> 06:55.000 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
SO WE ARE AT A LOWER POINT THAN

06:51.366 --> 06:57.366 align:start position:10% line:74% size:70%
WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST FEW

06:53.833 --> 06:58.800 align:start position:10% line:74% size:60%
DECADES FOR IMMIGRATION.

06:55.000 --> 06:59.166 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
>> IS THERE AN IDEAL DEMOGRAPHIC

06:57.366 --> 07:01.100 align:start position:10% line:74% size:55%
PROFILE FOR A COUNTRY?

06:58.800 --> 07:02.500 align:start position:10% line:74% size:15%
>> NO.

06:59.166 --> 07:05.233 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
IT IS ALL A MATTER OF HOW OUR

07:01.100 --> 07:06.933 align:start position:10% line:74% size:57.5%
SOCIAL POLICIES ADJUST.

07:02.500 --> 07:08.033 align:start position:10% line:74% size:67.5%
SO THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF

07:05.233 --> 07:10.466 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
FERTILITY RATES THAT COULD BE

07:06.933 --> 07:12.100 align:start position:10% line:74% size:60%
HEALTHY FOR THE COUNTRY.

07:08.033 --> 07:15.466 align:start position:10% line:74% size:62.5%
AND IT'S JUST A MATTER OF

07:10.466 --> 07:17.733 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
ADJUSTING OUR PUBLIC POLICIES

07:12.100 --> 07:18.133 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
AND ADJUSTING OUR LABOR FORCE IN

07:15.466 --> 07:20.066 align:start position:10% line:74% size:60%
RESPONSE TO THE SOCIETAL

07:17.733 --> 07:22.900 align:start position:10% line:74% size:27.5%
CONDITIONS.

07:18.133 --> 07:25.433 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
>> YOU TOLD OUR PRODUCER THAT

07:20.066 --> 07:26.433 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
YOU FELT THAT THIS COUNTRY WAS

07:22.900 --> 07:27.833 align:start position:10% line:74% size:65%
PERHAPS INVESTING TOO MANY

07:25.433 --> 07:28.266 align:start position:10% line:74% size:62.5%
RESOURCES ON THE ELDERLY.

07:26.433 --> 07:29.800 align:start position:10% line:74% size:42.5%
WHAT DO YOU MEAN?

07:27.833 --> 07:31.300 align:start position:10% line:74% size:22.5%
>> RIGHT.

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WELL, I DO NOT WANT TO TAKE

07:29.800 --> 07:34.800 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
ANYTHING AWAY FROM THE ELDERLY.

07:31.300 --> 07:35.166 align:start position:10% line:74% size:62.5%
BUT I THINK WE NEED TO BE

07:32.966 --> 07:36.566 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
INVESTING MORE IN FAMILIES WITH

07:34.800 --> 07:39.133 align:start position:10% line:74% size:22.5%
CHILDREN.

07:35.166 --> 07:42.700 align:start position:10% line:74% size:65%
I HAVE NEW RESEARCH WITH A

07:36.566 --> 07:44.066 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
COLLEAGUE AT DUKE AND WE'VE JUST

07:39.133 --> 07:45.466 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
LOOKED AT THE WEALTH HOLDING OF

07:42.700 --> 07:48.100 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
FAMILIES IN THE U.S., FAMILIES

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WITH CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY.

07:45.466 --> 07:52.033 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
AND 90% OF ELDERLY HOUSEHOLDS

07:48.100 --> 07:53.533 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
HAVE SEEN THEIR WEALTH GO UP IN

07:50.233 --> 07:54.733 align:start position:10% line:74% size:60%
THREE DECADES AND 90% OF

07:52.033 --> 07:56.466 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN HAVE SEEN

07:53.533 --> 07:58.333 align:start position:10% line:74% size:52.5%
THEIR WEALTH GO DOWN.

07:54.733 --> 07:59.900 align:start position:10% line:74% size:62.5%
AND THAT REFLECTS BROADER

07:56.466 --> 08:02.200 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY BUT IT

07:58.333 --> 08:04.200 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
ALSO REFLECTS THE FACT THAT WE

07:59.900 --> 08:06.433 align:start position:10% line:74% size:62.5%
ARE NOT PAYING AS MUCH OF

08:02.200 --> 08:07.566 align:start position:10% line:74% size:75%
COLLEGE TUITION AS WE USED TO.

08:04.200 --> 08:09.900 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
FEDERAL AND STATE INVESTMENT IN

08:06.433 --> 08:10.933 align:start position:10% line:74% size:72.5%
HIGHER EDUCATION HAS DECLINED

08:07.566 --> 08:13.333 align:start position:10% line:74% size:80%
AND NOW WE KNOW MORE PEOPLE NEED

08:09.900 --> 08:14.400 align:start position:10% line:74% size:42.5%
HIGHER EDUCATION.

08:10.933 --> 08:18.066 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
SO THOSE ARE A FEW EXAMPLES THE

08:13.333 --> 08:18.433 align:start position:10% line:74% size:77.5%
WAY WE ARE NOT INVEST UNWILLING

08:14.400 --> 08:20.066 align:start position:10% line:74% size:65%
OUR CHILDREN AND IN SOME'S