.

>>> ARIZONA POLITICO FOUND OUT.

>> I'M A DIE-HARD REPUBLICAN.

I CAN'T VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP.

I'M NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR

HILLARY.

>> HELPING OR HURTING PARTY

POLITICS?

>> DONALD TRUMP MIGHT BE THE

GREATEST PRINT-OUT MACHINE FOR

DEMOCRATIC VOTERS THAT WE HAVE

EVER SEEN.

>> WHAT'S IN STORE FOR THE NEXT

TWO MONTHS?

>> NOW IT'S A GAME OF MAKING

SURE YOU DON'T HAVE ANY UNFORCED

ERRORS, AND YOU SHOULD HAVE A

PATH TO THE PRESIDENCY.

IT'S SET.

>> SOME OF ARIZONA'S BEST

POLITICAL STRATEGISTS WEIGH IN

ON WHAT'S BECOMING A HISTORIC

CAMPAIGN.

THIS IS ARIZONA WEEK.

>>> HELLO.

THANKS FOR JOINING US.

THIS ELECTION IS UNLIKE ANY

WE'VE SEEN BEFORE.

THE CAMPAIGN DOMINATED THE

AIRWAVES AND CONVERSATIONS.

TODAY A DISCUSSION AMONG THREE

POLITICAL STRATEGISTS AND WHAT

THEY THINK WILL HAPPEN BEFORE

AMERICA ELECTS ITS NEXT

PRESIDENT.

HERE WE ARE A CONSERVATIVE STATE

TRADITIONALLY.

ARE THINGS ABOUT TO SHIFT IN

ARIZONA?

>> I DON'T THINK SO.

I THINK THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FOR

YEARS SINCE THE LATE 1990s

TALKED ABOUT HOW ARIZONA WAS

GOING TO SHIFT, AND THIS

STARTED, WHEN, IN 1996 WHEN BILL

CLINTON WON THE STATE.

THE ONLY REASON HE WON ARIZONA

WAS BECAUSE ROSS PEROT PULLED SO

MUCH OF THE VOTE AWAY FROM BUSH.

PEOPLE SAID THE DEMOGRAPHICS ARE

GOING TO CHANGE IN THE LAWSUIT

1990s.

AT THIS TIME I SAID IT IS GOING

TO CHANGE IN A COUPLE OF

DECADES.

IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN ANY

TIME SOON.

HERE WE ARE TODAY.

DONALD TRUMP IS THE NOMINEE.

A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SAYING HE IS

GOING TO CLAIM THE LATINO

TURNOUT.

THE LATINO TURNOUT MIGHT SPIKE A

LITTLE BIT.

THERE MIGHT BE A HANDFUL.

FOR EVERY NEW LATINO VOTER THAT

TRUMP DRIVES OUT, A WHITE-COLLAR

DEMOCRAT IS GOING -- OR

BLUE-COLLAR DEMOCRAT IS GOING TO

VOTE FOR HIM.

IN 2024 IS WHEN WE'RE GOING ON

SEE A SHIFT IN THE DEMOGRAPHICS

WHERE THEY HAVE A REAL

OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE THE STATE

BLUE UNLESS REPUBLICANS COULD

FIGURE OUT A WAY TO EMBRACE A

YOUNGER POPULATION, HISPANIC

POPULATION INTO THEIR RANKS.

>> JASON, DO YOU THINK HILLARY

IS ABOUT TO TAKE ARIZONA THIS

ELECTION?

>> YOU KNOW, WELL, I AGREE THE

DEMOCRATS TALK ABOUT IT EVERY

YEAR, AND IT'S ONE OF OUR

TALKING POINTS WE HAVE EVERY

ELECTION CYCLE THAT WE'RE GOING

TO GET THE YOUTH VOTE, WE'RE

GOING TO GET THE HISPANICS TO

VOTE, AND IT RARELY HAPPENS.

WHAT IS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT

ABOUT THIS CYCLE, THOUGH, IS WE

HAVE TIME TO FOCUS ON REALLY

GETTING THE TURNOUT TO ENGAGE.

YOU DON'T HAVE TO REALLY ENGAGE

ANY POLICY DISCUSSIONS OR HAVE

PEOPLE TRYING TO ACCEPT IT.

WE KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON.

WE HAVE THREE MONTHS TO REALLY

KIND OF MOVE BODIES NOW.

WHAT IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM,

THOUGH, IS THAT I RARELY SEE

PEOPLE TURN OUT TO VOTE AGAINST

SOMEBODY, AND THEY USUALLY TURN

OUT TO VOTE FOR SOMEBODY, WHICH

IS WHERE WE'RE IN KIND OF A

PROBLEM RIGHT NOW BECAUSE

THERE'S NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO

ARE VERY ACCEPTING OF CLINTON AS

THEIR CANDIDATE, SO THAT COULD

BE THE PROBLEM WHERE ONCE AGAIN

WE'VE DONE A LOT OF TALK AND

HAVE LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT IN

NOVEMBER.

>> MATTHEW, DONALD TRUMP HAS

SAID THINGS THAT HAVE EVEN MADE

CONSERVATIVES CRINGE.

THAT HELP OR HURT HIM RIGHT NOW?

>> OH, OF COURSE, IT HURTS HIM.

HE HAS SHOT HIMSELF IN THE FOOT

MULTIPLE TIMES.

THIS IS A CANDIDATE WHO IS

LOSING MINORITY VOTERS BY 60

POINTS.

I MEAN, THAT'S AN INCREDIBLE

MARGIN.

HE IS LOSING COLLEGE-INDICATED

WHITES BY LARGE NUMBERS.

BY DOUBLE DIGITS.

HE IS LOSING WOMEN BY 15 POINTS.

I AGREE WITH SEAN THAT THIS TIME

WITH THE LATINO VOTE WHEN

ARIZONA GOES BLUE IS NOT HERE

YET, BUT DONALD TRUMP MAY BE THE

GREATEST TURNOUT MACHINE FOR

DEMOCRAT VOTERS WE HAVE EVER

SEEN, AND HIS RHETORIC -- I

DON'T KNOW THAT HILLARY CAN WIN

ARIZONA THIS YEAR, BUT HE IS

PUSHING SO MANY VOTERS INTO THE

DEMOCRAT COLUMN.

I THINK THAT HE IS FAST

FORWARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH

ARIZONA BEGINS TO SHIFT.

>> I THINK THAT -- I MEAN, I

DON'T KNOW THAT HE IS PUSHING

VOTERS INTO THE DEMOCRAT COLUMN

AS MUCH AS HE IS, LIKE, I'M A

DIE-HARD REPUBLICAN.

I CAN'T VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP.

I'M NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR

HILLARY.

YOU KNOW, I HAVE THE -- I KNOW

DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN.

I CAN BE PRINCIPLED IT, AND I

WILL PROBABLY WRITE IN MARCO

RUBIO, PROBABLY.

THE POINT IS THAT HE IS

ABANDONING CONSERVATIVE

PRINCIPLES.

HE ACTUALLY NEVER HAD

CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES.

IF YOU WATCH HIS CONVENTION

SPEECH, I TWEETED THIS AT THE

TIME, THIS IS A 1960s THROWBACK

DEMOCRAT NATIONAL CONVENTION

SPEECH.

HE WAS TALKING ABOUT USING

GOVERNMENT TO CREATE JOBS.

YOU KNOW, BIG PROGRAMS.

I MEAN, HE PUT OBAMA STIMULUS

PACKAGE TO SHAME.

I MEAN, THIS IS A BIG

GOVERNMENT, YOU KNOW, I'M THE

GUY THAT'S GOING TO SOLVE ALL

THE PROBLEMS.

NOT ONLY THE BIG GOVERNMENT AND

THE DEMOCRAT PHILOSOPHY, AND

IT'S I'M THE GUY THAT'S GOING TO

GET IT DONE.

HE IS TOTALLY TAKING THE

EXECUTIVE BRAFRMG TO A NEW

LEVEL.

>> I THINK THAT'S RIGHT.

>> WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT PUSHING

VOTERS INTO THE DEMOCRAT COLUMN,

I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT FOLKS LIKE

SEAN.

I'M TALKING ABOUT YOUR, LET'S

SAY, A LATINO VOTER WHO MAY BE

CATHOLIC, MAYBE THEY'VE GOT

CONSERVATIVE SOCIAL VIEWS,

RIGHT, THEY OPPOSE ABORTION,

THEY'RE HARD-WORKING, AND THEY

HAVE VALUES THAT WOULD PUT THEM

MORE IN LINE WITH MAYBE A

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE, BUT THEY

LOOK AT THE STANDARD BEARER OF

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN 2016 AND

SAY I CAN'T VOTE.

THAT IS NOT MY HOME.

THAT PARTY IS NOT WHERE I

BELONG.

THEY'RE GOING TO END UP IN THE

DEMOCRAT COLUMN.

THIS YEAR AND MAYBE GOING

FORWARD.

THAT'S THE TRUE RISK HERE TO THE

GOP.

>> AND DONALD TRUMP HAS REALLY

OPENED UP THAT DOOR TO MAKE IT

HAPPEN BECAUSE IN ARIZONA THE

DEMOCRATS REALLY HAVEN'T SPENT

THE TIME OR MONEY HERE TO REALLY

ENGAGE AND TALK TO THOSE VOTERS,

BUT HE HAS NOW OPENED A DOOR

WHERE THE DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING,

HEY, YOU KNOW, WE'RE WINNING

ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE NATION.

LET'S SEE HOW MUCH MONEY WE CAN

SPEND IN ARIZONA AND START

LAYING THAT GROUND WORK, AND

THAT'S WHERE IT'S GOING TO PAY

OFF IN 2020, 2024, AND REALLY

ACCELERATE THE TIMELINE OF

DEMOCRATS HAVING AN IMPACT HERE

IN ARIZONA.

>> JASON, THIS IS THE FIRST

FEMALE NOMINEE FOR THE

DEMOCRATS.

IS SHE RUNNING THE RIGHT

CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE HUGE STAR

POWER IN DONALD TRUMP.

>> I THINK SHE'S RUNNING A GREAT

CAMPAIGN RIGHT NOW AGAINST

DONALD TRUMP.

I MEAN, THE NUMBER SHOWS.

YOU HAVE AN UNPOPULAR CANDIDATE.

YET, WITH DONALD TRUMP WHO HAS

CREATED THE OPPORTUNITY FOR HER

TO BASICALLY COAST BY, SHE'S

RUNNING THE CAMPAIGN SHE NEEDS

TO WIN.

KEEP HER HEAD DOWN NOW AND LET

THE NEXT THREE MONTHS GO BY

WITHOUT MAKING ANY ERRORS.

NOW IT'S A GAME OF MAKING SURE

THAT YOU DON'T HAVE ANY UNFORCED

ERRORS AND YOU SHOULD HAVE THE

PATH TO THE PRESIDENCY.

THE PERSON WHO IS GOING TO WIN

THE PRESIDENCY IS GOING TO DO IT

BY DEFAULT.

IF SHE DOESN'T SCREW IT UP,

SHE'LL WIN BECAUSE THIS OTHER

GUY IS SO BAD.

IF SHE WERE RUNNING AGAINST

ALMOST ANYONE ELSE, BUT MAYBE

NOT TED CRUZ, BUT IF MARCO RUBIO

WERE THE NOMINEE, SHE WOULD BE

DEAD AND DONE RIGHT NOW.

THIS WOULD BE MARCO IS WALKING

INTO IT WITHOUT ANY QUESTION.

THE NATION KRAIFZ CHANGE AND

SOMETHING NEW, AND THAT'S NOT

HILLARY CLINTON, AND DONALD

TRUMP IS NOT PALETABLE TO

ENOUGH PEOPLE TO BE THE KIND OF

CHANGE.

I DON'T THINK HE IS CHANGE

EITHER.

I STILL THINK THIS IS A BIG

HOAX.

HE HAD A CONVERSATION WITH BILL

CLINTON.

THEN HE ANNOUNCED HE IS RUNNING

FOR PRESIDENT.

THEN HE DOES EVERYTHING HE COULD

DO TO POSSIBLY SABOTAGE HIS OWN

NOMINATION.

PROBABLY NOT COUNTING ON THE

FACT THAT PEOPLE WERE SO FED UP

WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT AND HE

WAS -- THEY WERE -- SO MANY BETA

MALES LOOKING FOR THE ALPHA MALE

TO LATCH ON TO THAT HE BECAME

THE POPULAR GUY AND WON THE

NOMINATION.

NOMINATION.

NOW THAT HE HAS RUN THE

NOMINATION, HE CAN'T RUN THE

SAME KIND OF CAMPAIGN AND WIN,

BUT HE REFUSES TO PIVOT AND RUN

A REAL CAMPAIGN.

HE IS NOT A SENATOR.

HE IS NOT RUNNING A REAL

CAMPAIGN.

>> THIS IS NOT A HOAX.

I MEAN, THIS IS -- WE'RE RUNNING

FOR PRESIDENT HERE, CORRECT?

>> I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN GO SO

FAR AS TO CALL IT A HOAX, BUT I

WILL SAY -- I THINK THIS IS

CERTAINLY THE FIRST CAMPAIGN IN

MY LIFETIME AND MAYBE THE LAST

TIME ANY OF US WILL SEE IT IN

ANY OF OUR LIFETIMES WHERE A

MAJOR POLITICAL PARTY FIELDED A

NOMINEE WHO IS NOT RUNNING AN

ACTUAL CAMPAIGN.

HE IS NOT ON AIR.

HE DOESN'T HAVE ANY CAMPAIGN --

HE HAS NO ADS ON AIR.

HILLARY CLINTON IS WINNING 9-1

IN AIR TIME.

HE DOESN'T HAVE FIELD OFFICES.

THERE'S NO GROUND GAME.

WE HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE

IT.

THERE IS PART OF ME THAT WONDERS

THIS CAN'T BE REAL.

THIS CAN'T BE SERIOUS.

>> HE IS A CELEBRITY

BILLIONAIRE, SO THAT BEING SAID,

IS THIS PART OF MAYBE JUST HIS

IDEA THAT HE HAS A NEED FOR

POWER, THE DESIRE TO LEAD?

>> I THINK IF YOU HAVE WATCHED

HIS SHOW, HE LIKES BEING IN

CONTROL.

IT WAS A GREAT IDEA, AND HE SAID

I'M GOING TO BECOME PRESIDENT OF

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

EVERYBODY WILL THINK I'M THIS

GREAT PERSON.

YET, WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO THE

PRACTICALITY OF IT AND HE HAS

ACTUALLY TO DO THE WORK ON IT,

HE DOESN'T WANT TO ENGAGE IN THE

POLICY DISCUSSION, HE DOESN'T

WANT TO BE -- TO HAVE THE

PROFESSIONAL SIDE OF BEING THE

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

TO DEAL WITH.

HE JUST WANTS ALL THE GLORY, AND

THAT REALLY COMES OFF NOW THAT

WE ACTUALLY HAVE TO ENGAGE IN

THE POLICY DISCUSSION, AND IT

CAN'T JUST BE THE HEADLINES THAT

ARE SELLING HIM.

HE DOESN'T WANT TO DO THAT.

HE DOESN'T WANT TO ENGAGE IN

THAT POLICY DISCUSSION.

I THINK AMERICA, WHAT WE'RE

SEEING HERE, IS WE REALLY DO

NEED THAT.

WE CAN'T HAVE SOMEBODY THAT

THROWS UP THE HEADLINE OR THE

ONE-LINER.

WE NEED SOMEBODY TO ENGAGE IN

THAT DISCUSSION, AND FRANKLY, HE

IS NOT IT.

>> HE IS RICH.

HE PICKED THE WRONG CAN THE TO

RUN FOR PRESIDENT.

THIS ISN'T THE KIND OF PLACE

WITH A GUY LIKE HIS

PERSONALITY -- HE WANTS TO BE A

DICTATOR.

HE IS IN THE WRONG PLACE.

>>> MORE WITH THOSE THREE IN

JUST A FEW MINUTES.

MOVING NOW TO POLITICAL POLLS.

HOW ACCURATE ARE THE DATA, AND

WHAT DO SURVEYS TELL US ABOUT

THE ELECTIONS?

HERE'S MIKE NOBLE, A POLLSTER

WITH OH PREDICTIVE INSIGHTS IN

PHOENIX.

>> WHAT WE DO IS FIGURE OUT NOT

ONLY WHAT THE PUBLIC IS

THINKING, BUT ALSO WHERE WE

THINK THEY'RE GOING TO GO ON THE

ISSUES, AND IT'S VERY

INTERESTING WITH POLLING THAT I

THINK WE GET A BAD RAP SOMETIMES

BECAUSE, YOU KNOW -- BECAUSE

TECHNICALLY ANYONE COULD REALLY

POLL OR BE A POLLSTER.

THE TRICK IS FIGURING OUT WHO IS

LIKELY TO TURN OUT TO VOTE.

ESPECIALLY IN PRIMARY ELECTRICS

THAT ARE A PRIME EXAMPLE.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS OF

PRIMARY ELECTIONS HERE IN

ARIZONA, THE NUMBERS REALLY

DON'T CHANGE FROM PRESIDENTIAL

YEARS TO MIDTERM YEARS.

IT'S REALLY THE SAME FOLKS

COMING OUT TO VOTE.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT WE HAVE, LET'S

SAY, ONE MILLION RESIDENTS HERE,

RIGHT, AND THEN OF THOSE 50% OR

SO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE.

YOU HAVE THESE FOLKS THAT ARE

ACTUALLY GOING TO COME OUT AND

VOTE, BUT IN A PRIMARY, YOU HAVE

DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS,

INDEPENDENTS.

NOW IT'S EVEN DOWN TO A SMALLER

SLIVER.

HOW DO WE FIGURE OUT BASED ON,

YOU KNOW, WHAT WE THINK THE

TURNOUT IS GOING TO BE AND THE

FOLKS THAT ARE LIKELY TO VOTE.

WHERE THOSE FOLKS ARE GOING TO

FALL.

>> HOW DO YOU COLLECT THIS DATA?

IS IT OVER THE PHONE?

>> WELL, YOU COLLECT IT OVER THE

PHONE, BUT YOU GO BASED ON THEIR

VOTER HISTORY.

AS SOMEONE WERE TO -- IF I KNEW

YOU VOTED FOUR OUT OF THE LAST

FOUR ELECTIONS, ABOUT 95% CHANCE

YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO BE

VOTING AGAIN, RIGHT?

OR LET'S SAY YOU'RE VOTED OUT OF

THE LAST THREE ON TO FOUR,

THERE'S AN 85% CHANCE OF VOTING.

AS YOU GO FARTHER DOWN THE LINE,

IF YOU NEVER VOTED IN ELECTIONS,

WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT YOU

POSSIBLY ARE GOING TO BE COMING

OUT TO VOTE NOW?

THAT'S WHY I THINK YOU SEE THE

ISSUES IN POLLING IS WHEN THEY

JUST SAID THEY SAMPLED

REGISTERED VOTERS.

IT'S GREAT YOU'RE A REBELLING

REGISTERED VOTER, BUT ARE YOU

REGISTERED VOTER, BUT ARE YOU

GOING TO BE VOTING IN THIS

ELECTION?

YOU ALSO ASK IN THE BEGINNING.

WE KNOW THEIR HISTORY, BUT THEN

WE VERIFY THAT AND SAY HOW

LIKELY ARE YOU TO VOTE IN THIS

UPCOMING ELECTION, AND UNLESS

YOU'RE VERY LIKELY OR LIKELY, I

DON'T THINK YOU SHOULD PROBABLY

BE TAKING THIS SURVEY, IN MY

OPINION.

>> SOME OF THE POLLS HAVE BEEN

OFF WHEN IT COMES TO HOW DONALD

TRUMP IS DOING, HOW HILLARY

CLINTON IS DOING.

THAT LEAVES THE AMERICAN VOTER

TO QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT THESE

POLLS ARE GOING WE SHOULD EVEN

BE TALKING ABOUT.

>> CORRECT.

I THINK YOU HEAR FROM DIFFERENT

ANGLES.

I THINK THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS

SAYING THESE POLLS ARE WRONG.

IT MAY BE, BUT OVERALL THERE

DEFINITELY IS A SCIENCE TO

MODERATE ESH DAY POLLING, AND,

YEAH, SOME FOLKS ARE GOING TO BE

WRONG, AND THAT'S WHY IT REALLY

COMES DOWN TO THE POLLSTER AND

METHODOLOGY.

I THINK IF YOU KNOW IN A CERTAIN

DISTRICT THAT THERE'S A HEAVY

HISPANIC POPULATION, YOU KNOW,

THEY'RE MOTIVATED TO VOTE, YOU

WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT'S

REPRESENTATIVE IN YOUR SAMPLE.

IF YOU DON'T SAMPLE ANY OF THOSE

HISPANICS, YOU'RE GOING TO BE

OFF BECAUSE HAVE YOU TO TAKE

INTO ACCOUNT BECAUSE EACH

DISTRICT, EACH ELECTION HAS ITS

OWN DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC.

IT'S VERY INTERESTING TO SEE,

YOU KNOW, WHY -- I SAW ONE POLL.

I THINK THE FOLKS WERE OFF BY 80

POINTS.

ALSO, YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THAT,

OKAY, HAVE THEY BEEN PAID?

I HAVE YET TO SEE A POLL

RELEASED WHERE IT WASN'T GOOD

FOR THEIR CLIENT IF THEY WEREN'T

PAID BY THEM.

YOU WANT TO LOOK FOR FOLKS THAT

DON'T HAVE A DOG IN THE FIGHT

BECAUSE THEY'RE TRULY LOOKING AT

THE RACE COMPARED TO SOMEONE

THAT SAYS I'LL PAY X AMOUNT OF

DOLLARS TO DO A POLL.

YOU KNOW, THE CHANCES -- YOU CAN

PUSH SOMEONE ANY WAY YOU WOULD

LIKE, AND IT'S JUST HOW DO YOU

DO IN AN UNBIASSED MANNER, I

GUESS.

THAT'S REALLY THE TRICK.

I THINK THAT'S THE THING YOU

HAVE TO LOOK AT.

IS THERE PERSONAL INTEREST

INVOLVED?

I THINK THAT COULD BE -- THAT'S

WHERE YOU MIGHT SEE SOME OF THE

ISSUES.

>> ONE THING WE HEAR IS TWO WHO

HAS TIME FOR POLLS?

WHO ALREADY ARE THESE PEOPLE

YOU'RE CALLING?

>> THAT IS THE OTHER CHALLENGE

THAT WE'VE BEEN FIND AND THAT

WE'VE BEEN HAVING TO ADAPT.

THE OLDER GENERATION IS MORE

USED TO IT.

ALSO, THE YOUNGER GENERATION IS

NOT AND ALSO WITH THE CONVERSION

OF HOW FOLKS GET THEIR

INFORMATION.

BEFORE EVERYONE HAD A LAND LINE.

NOW IT'S VERY FEW.

IT'S TOUGH TO FIND ANYBODY

UNDER, I WOULD SAY, 30 THAT HAS

A LAND LINE.

YOU KNOW, YOU ARE SEEING MORE OF

A MIXTURE OF LEANING TOWARDS

CELL PHONES COMPARED TO

AUTOMATED, AND THEN ALSO ON-LINE

SURVEYS, WHICH ARE STILL WORKING

ON PERFECTING.

YOU'RE SEEING DEFINITELY A TREND

OF THAT.

FOLKS JUST AREN'T AS ENGAGED, I

THINK, IS WHAT THEY PROBABLY

WERE 20, 30 YEARS AGO.

>> ARE YOU TAILORING YOUR PHONE

CALLS AT A CERTAIN TIME BECAUSE

OF PEOPLE'S WORK?

>> YEAH.

TYPICALLY I WOULD SAY WE USUALLY

WOULD GO IN THE EVENING.

YOU TYPICALLY STAY AWAY FROM

FRIDAY NIGHTS, THOUGH.

YOU TYPICALLY -- YOU ALWAYS SEE

LOWER RESPONSE TIMES ON

WEEKENDS.

PEOPLE ARE OUT AND ABOUT.

THEY COULD BE RUNNING ERRANDS,

DON'T HAVE TIME.

USUALLY EVENING HOURS IS BEST.

POLLSTERS, YEAH, THEY GET A BAD

RAP, BUT IT'S BEING ABLE TO

FIGURE OUT, ONE, DO THEY -- IS

THERE A MOTIVATION BEHIND IT?

I HAVE YET -- ONE DAY -- I'LL

GIVE YOU A PRIME EXAMPLE.

I RELEASED A POLL IN ARIZONA'S

FIFTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

HERE, AND, YOU KNOW, THERE'S

FOUR FOLKS IN THE RACE.

WELL, ONLY ONE CAN BE NUMBER ONE

IN THAT POLL, RIGHT?

THE THREE THAT WEREN'T NUMBER

ONE IN THE POLL ALL SAID MY

NUMBERS ARE BAD, THE POLL IS

INACCURATE.

YOU KNOW, IT'S A BAD POLL.

POKING HOLES IN IT.

THEN, YOU KNOW, A MONTH LATER I

POLL, AND THEN THE PERSON THAT

WAS IN LAST IS ALL OF A SUDDEN

IN FIRST, AND ALL OF A SUDDEN

THEY DIDN'T HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH

THE NUMBERS.

IT'S INTERESTING THAT I HAVE YET

TO SEE THE DAY WHEN I RELEASE A

POLL THAT IS BAD FOR SOMEONE AND

THEY SAY, HEY, THAT GUY WAS

RIGHT ON OR THAT WAS A GREAT

POLL.

VICE VERSA.

IT'S JUST -- I THINK IT'S THE

NATURE OF POLITICS THAT YOU'LL

GET A LOT OF FOLKS THAT POKE

HOLES, AND I THINK WHAT YOU HAVE

TO BASE IT ON IS THAT YOUR

REPUTATION AND RECORD.

I THINK FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL

PRIMARY, I WAS THE CLOSEST IN

ARIZONA OUT OF EVERYONE, AND ONE

FOR ONE ON PRESIDENTIAL

PRIMARIES RIGHT NOW.

>>> GOING BACK NOW TO OUR

CONVERSATION WITH THREE OF

ARIZONA'S TOP POLITICAL

STRATEGISTS.

MATT AND JASON FROM VERITUS LLC

AND SEAN NOBLE FROM AXIOM PUBLIC

AFFAIRS.

THESE NOMINEES, THEY SAY, ARE

CHALLENGING EACH PARTY.

>> THERE'S A WIDE ARRAY OF

CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS, PEOPLE

WHO WOULD COUNT THEMSELVES AS

CONSERVATIVES FIRST AND

REPUBLICANS SECOND.

THEY SAY, LOOK, THIS GUY WILL

DESTROY WHAT WE'VE SPENT A

LIFETIME TRYING TO BUILD AND

PROTECT, AND THAT IS THE

CONSERVATIVE PHILOSOPHY ABOUT

THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT.

HE IS THE OPPOSITE OF THAT IN

ALMOST EVERY WAY.

IF HE GETS ELECTED, THAT'S GOING

TO COMPLETELY RESHAPE WHAT THE

CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT IN THE

REPUBLICAN PARTY LOOKS LIKE.

I THINK IF HE LOSES, WHICH HE

LIKELY WILL, THERE IS A CHANCE

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WILL SAY,

OKAY, WAIT A MINUTE.

WE DID THE LITTLE EXPERIMENT.

IT CLEARLY DOESN'T WORK.

LET'S GET BACK TO NORMAL AND TRY

TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IT IS THAT WE

NEED TO DO SO THAT WE CAN MOUNT

A CANDIDATE AGAINST AN INCUMBENT

HILLARY CLINTON IN 2020 AND TAKE

BACK THE PRESIDENCY.

>> MATT, WHO IS THE BEST

CANDIDATE FOR ARIZONA WHEN IT

COMES TO THE ECONOMY, EDUCATION,

CROSS-BORDER RELATIONS?

WHO IS THE BEST CANDIDATE?

>> AMONG THOSE RUNNING FOR

PRESIDENT?

>> WOW.

OKAY.

>> GARY JOHNSON.

I MEAN, HE SAY LIBERTARIAN.

GARY JOHNSON WAS THE GOVERNOR OF

NEW MEXICO, UNDERSTANDS OUR PART

OF THE WORLD.

HIS RUNNING MATE, BILL WELLS, HE

WAS A VERY SUCCESSFUL GOVERNOR

IN MASSACHUSETTS.

BOTH REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS.

NOW THEY'RE RUNNING IN THE

LIBERTARIAN TICKETS.

FRANKLY, THEY ARE BY FAR, BY FAR

MORE SUPERIOR IN THE KIND OF

GOVERNMENT THAT THEY WOULD RUN

AND WHAT THEY WOULD DO FOR THE

COUNTRY THAN EITHER THE CLINTON

ADMINISTRATION OR TRUMP

ADMINISTRATION.

THEY HAVE NO HOPE OF WINNING.

>> YEAH.

THEY ARE SERIOUS CANDIDATES.

UNFORTUNATELY, IF THEY CAN'T HIT

THE 15% THRESHOLD, THEY CAN'T

EVEN GET ON THE STAGE FOR THE

DEBATES, WHICH ARE, YOU KNOW,

WHEN MOST AMERICANS ARE TUNING

IN.

YEAH, IT'S A SAD PLACE TO BE FOR

THOSE OF US WHO, YOU KNOW, ARE

RIGHT OR CENTER RIGHT.

>> I THINK IT'S A LITTLE BIT

CONCERNING OR AT LEAST I WOULD

BE CONCERNED FROM THE REPUBLICAN

STANDPOINT IN THAT, ONE, THE

CANDIDATE WHO DID -- DOES HAVE

OUR PARTY'S NOMINATION, ONE,

THEY STAND UP ON THE STAGE AT

THEIR CONVENTION, AND, TWO,

THERE'S ANOTHER POLITICAL PARTY

OUT THERE THAT SEEMS TO BE MORE

IN LINE WITH WHAT WE FEEL ARE

OUR IDEALS, AND I THINK THERE'S

SOMETHING TELLING THAT THERE'S

BEEN A DISCONNECT IN KIND OF

FROM THE TOP -- FROM THE

TREETOPS TO THE GRASSROOTS IN

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AND THAT

IS HOW YOU ENDED UP WITH TRUMP

COMING UP TO POWER AND GAINING

THAT NOMINATION.

>> I THINK -- I MEAN, I HAVE --

I KNOW THAT IT'S A STANDARD

TALKING POINT WITH THE

DEMOCRATS, NO OFFENSE, BUT THAT

YOU GUYS CREATED TRUMP.

HE IS YOUR -- I BELIEVE IT WAS

OBAMA THAT CREATED TRUMP.

OBAMA CAME INTO OFFICE AND

IMMEDIATELY DECIDED HE HAD A

DEMOCRATIC SENATE AND DEMOCRATIC

HOUSE.

HE IMMEDIATELY DECIDED HE WAS

GOING TO DO THINGS VERY

DIFFERENTLY THAN PREVIOUS

PRESIDENTS WHERE, WHEN REAGAN

HAD A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE AND

SENATE, HE WORKED CLOSELY WITH

TIP O'NEIL TO BROKER COMPROMISE

AND GET THINGS DONE.

OBAMA DECIDED HE WAS GOING TO

CRAM THROUGH A STIMULUS PACKAGE,

HE WAS GOING TO CRAM THROUGH

HEALTH CARE REFORM, AND HE DID

THOSE THINGS WITHOUT ANY

REPUBLICAN SUPPORT.

I MEAN, HE DECIDED HE WAS NOT

GOING TO SIT DOWN AND NEGOTIATE.

HE WAS GOING TO DO IT HIS WAY

AND NO OTHER WAY, AND IT COST

THE DEMOCRATS THE MAJORITY, AND

THE HOUSE AND SENATE IN -- OR

THE HOUSE IN 2010 AND SO HE HAS

CREATED AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE

EVERYONE FEELS LIKE NOTHING IS

GETTING DONE.

THIS HOSTILE NATURE.

I THINK IN MANY WAYS OBAMA IN

2009-2010 WAS THE BEGINNING OF

WHAT BECAME THE PHENOMENON OF

TRUMP'S SUPPORT.

>> THE OTHER THING THAT WAS

CREATED IS THE RISE OF THE -- I

WOULDN'T EVEN CALL IT

CONSERVATIVE MEDIA.

I WOULD -- IT'S THE FRINGE.

IT'S THE SEAN HANNITY, RUSH

LIMBAUGH.

IT'S THE ENTERTAINMENT WING OF

THE CONSERVATIVE MEDIA WHICH HAS

CREATED AN ENTIRE GENERATION OF

VOTERS WHO BELIEVE THAT

CONSERVATIVES IN CONGRESS ARE

ALL SELL-OUTS, WHO BELIEVE THAT

IT DOESN'T MATTER THAT A

DEMOCRAT IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE.

THEY SHOULD SOMEHOW FORCE HIM TO

SIGN LEGISLATION UNDOING HIS

LANDMARK ACHIEVEMENT WITH OBAMA

CARE.

>> NOT ONLY THAT.

THEY BOTH BELIEVE THEY SHOULD

FORCE HIM TO DO IT, BUT THEY

DON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND IT.

YOU CAN'T EVEN GET THE BILL TO

HIM BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE 60

VOTES IN THE SENATE.

THEY'RE NOT SMART ENOUGH -- THIS

IS WHERE I FAULT TED CRUZ WHO

NEVER MADE THE POINT, WELL, WE

CAN'T GET IT THROUGH THE SENATE

BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE 60 VOTES.

PEOPLE JUST SAY, WOW, YOU HAVE

55 REPUBLICAN SENATORS.

WHY DON'T YOU REPEAL OBAMA CARE?

THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND THE

PROCESS.

IT IS -- THE RUSH LIMBAUGHS AND

THE SEAN HANNITY'S OF THE WORLD

HAVE CREATED A SITUATION WHERE

WE TAKE PEOPLE WHO AREN'T AS

KNOWLEDGEABLE ABOUT THE PUBLIC

POLICY PROCESS AND FEED THEM

STUFF THAT SETS EXPECTATION THAT

IS ARE COMPLETELY UNATTAINABLE

BECAUSE THAT'S NOT THE WAY THE

PROCESS WORKS.

>> WHICH IS, AS YOU SAID, MAYBE

WHAT HAPPENED EIGHT YEARS AGO.

>> I JUST WANTED TO ADDRESS

THAT.

I DON'T THINK IT'S NECESSARILY

OBAMA.

I WOULDN'T PUT EVERYTHING IN HIS

COURT THAT HAS CREATED THIS

SITUATION, BUT WHAT HAS

OCCURRED, AND I THINK IT'S ON

BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE, IS A

DUMBING DOWN OF THE AMERICAN

POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HOW IT

WORKS AND HOW WE ADDRESS IT.

THE MERE FACT THAT WHEN

SOMETHING BAD HAPPENS OR IT'S

SOMETHING WE DON'T AGREE WITH

THAT'S PROPOSED, RATHER THAN

ENGAGE IN A POLICY DISCUSSION,

WE KIND OF THROW BOMBS OUT THERE

AND LIKE TO YELL AND SCREAM AT

EACH OTHER, AND THAT HAS CREATED

A SITUATION WHERE AMERICA AND

AMERICANS AREN'T ENGAGING OR

EDUCATING OURSELVES IN THE

ISSUES THAT OUR COUNTRY HAS TO

FACE EVERY DAY.

>> WHAT DOES IT SAY, THOUGH,

THAT ALL THESE THINGS HAVE BEEN

HAPPENING, AND DONALD TRUMP HAS

BEEN VERY POPULAR WITH THE

AMERICAN PUBLIC?

AS WE HEARD --

>> I DON'T THINK HE HAS BEEN

VERY POPULAR AMONG THE AMERICAN

PUBLIC.

HE HAS BEEN POPULAR AMONG JUST

OVER HALF THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

VOTERS.

EVEN POLLING NOW, HE IS NOT

POPULAR.

HE IS THE LEAST POPULAR

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE I THINK

WE'VE SEEN IN A LONG, LONG TIME.

>> AND THE ONLY ONE THAT COMES

CLOSE TO HIM IN UNPOPULARITY IS

HILLARY CLINTON.

IF SHE WINS -- IF EITHER OF THEM

WIN, WHICHEVER ONE WINS GOES

INTO THE WHITE HOUSE WITH THE

LOWEST FAVORABLE RATING IN THE

HISTORY OF OUR NATION AS A

PRESIDENT WALKING INTO THE OVAL

OFFICE ON DAY ONE.

>> WHAT HAPPENS IN NOVEMBER?

>> HILLARY CLINTON WINS, AND SHE

WINS BY A WIDE MARGIN.

I MEAN, THE POLLING THAT WE'RE

SEEING JUST OUT TODAY SHOWS

SHE'S UP 15 POINTS IN VIRGINIA.

SHE'S UP DOUBLE DIGITS IN

PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN,

COLORADO.

THE ONLY SO-CALLED SWING STATES

THAT ARE REALLY TRULY CLOSE AT

THIS POINT ARE FLORIDA AND OHIO.

SHE IS PUSHING, YOU KNOW --

>> AND IOWA.

>> SHE'S PUSHLING IN THE STATES

LIKE ARIZONA, UTAH, GEORGIA.

THE NUMBERS -- THE TREND LINE,

IT'S STILL EARLY.

I MEAN, WE'RE ALMOST THREE

MONTHS OUT, BUT THE NUMBERS ARE

LOOKING TREMENDOUSLY BAD FOR

DONALD TRUMP.

>> THE HARD PART FOR THE HILLARY

CAMPAIGN RIGHT NOW IS GOING TO

BE KEEPING VOTERS ENGAGED AND

KEEPING THIS STILL A STORY

BECAUSE COME NOVEMBER THEY'RE

GOING TO HAVE -- RUN THE PROBLEM

WITH PEOPLE NOT CARING ANYMORE,

AND THEY'RE STILL GOING TO BE

NEEDING PEOPLE TO SHOW UP AND

VOTE.

IF THEY DON'T HAVE THOSE PEOPLE

TO SHOW UP AND VOTE AFTER THREE

MONTHS OF HEARING HILLARY IS

GOING TO WIN, THAT'S GOING TO BE

A PROBLEM.

THEY NEED TO BE ABLE TO KEEP

THOSE VOTERS ENGAGED AND WILLING

TO TURN OUT IN NOVEMBER.

>> I THINK HILLARY WINS.

I THINK WHAT HAPPENS IN THE

LONG-TERM IS PEOPLE ARE GOING TO

BE SO DISGUSTED BY THIS ELECTION

CYCLE THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A

HARD TIME GETTING PARTICIPATION

RATES IN FUTURE ELECTIONS

ANYWHERE CLOSE TO WHERE WE'VE

BEEN HISTORICALLY.

I THINK WE ARE TURNING PEOPLE

OFF IN DROVES, AND, YOU KNOW,

IT'S GOING TO BE BAD FOR

DEMOCRACY, BAD FOR OUR SYSTEM,

AND IT'S GOING TO TAKE A DECADE

OR MORE TO FIX.

>> DONALD TRUMP IS AT THE TOP OF

THE REPUBLICAN TICKET IN

ARIZONA.

HOW DOES THAT SHAKE OUT

THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE RACES

WE HAVE IN ARIZONA?

>> WELL, ONE, IT DOESN'T LOOK

GOOD.

I MEAN, THERE'S A TRUMP EFFECT.

IS THAT GOING TO TURN OFF THE

REPUBLICAN VOTERS, AND IF THEY

DON'T SHOW UP TO VOTE FOR

PRESIDENT, THAT'S GOING TO HAVE

A SEVERE IMPACT ON THE BALLOT.

THE LAST ELECTION CYCLE IN 2014

WE HAD A REPUBLICAN THAT WON BY

LESS THAN 1,000 VOTERS IN SOME

LEGISLATIVE VOTERS AND A

CONGRESSWOMAN THAT WON BY LESS

THAN 200 VOTERS.

ANY DECREASE IN THE TURNOUT, THE

REPUBLICANS COULD FEEL A LARGE

IMPACT.

HOWEVER, YOU HAVE TO BALANCE

THAT AGAINST THE UNPOPULAR

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE THAT NOT A

LOT OF DEMOCRATS MIGHT SHOW UP

TO VOTE FOR.

YOU KNOW, I WOULD AGREE THAT

WE'RE JUST GO GOING TO HAVE A

LOW TURNOUT, AND WHAT THAT MEANS

AND HOW THAT AFFECTS IT, I CAN'T

TELL AT THIS POINT.

I THINK THERE'S A DANGER, BUT

I'M NOT SEEING IT.

IF WE HAVE THAT HISTORIC

HISPANIC TURNOUT AND THE YOUTH

SHOW UP, YEAH, THERE WILL BE A

CHANGE.

>> THERE GOES --

>> AND THE INDEPENDENTS TOO,

RIGHT?

>> I MEAN, SENATOR McCAIN IS

GOING TO WIN RE-ELECTION PRETTY

HANDILY.

HIS RACE IS VERY INDICATIVE OF

OTHER SENATE RACES ACROSS THE

COUNTRY.

THEY'RE OUT-POLLING TRUMP.

THEY'RE GOING TO DO BETTER THAN

TRUMP.

IF TRUMP COLLAPSES, THEY'RE

STILL GOING TO WIN.

REPUBLICANS HOLD THE MAJORITY,

YOU KNOW.

McCAIN WINS.

I THINK AYOTTE WINS IN NEW

HAMPSHIRE.

PORTLAND WINS IN IT OHIO.

RUBIO WINS IN FLORIDA.

THE ONLY ONE THAT I WOULD SAY --

THE TWO THAT ARE MOST AT RISK

NATIONALLY IN THE SENATE ARE

MARK KIRKLAND IN ILLINOIS AND

RON JOHNSON IN WISCONSIN.

EVEN RON JOHNSON HAS A CHANCE TO

PULL THIS OFF.

IT'S GOING TO BE -- YOU KNOW,

TRUMP WILL NOT HAVE THE DRAG

EFFECT THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN

TRYING TO PINE FOR.

REPUBLICANS WILL HOPE.

>> WE ALL KNOW THAT DONALD TRUMP

HATES MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE TO

BE A LOSER, AND HE HAS ALREADY

BEEN FLOATING THIS NOTION THAT

IF I LOSE, IT'S BECAUSE IT WAS

RIGGED.

THIS IS A RIGGED GAME.

THE ELECTION IS -- THE FIX IS

IN.

IF HE SEES THE -- IF WE GET

CLOSER TO ELECTION DAY --

REMEMBER, WE START VOTING HERE

IN EARLY OCTOBER IN ARIZONA AND

IN OTHER STATES.

IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THE

THING IS OUT OF REACH, I WOULD

BE CONCERNED -- I AM CONCERNED

THAT HE DISSPIRITS REPUBLICAN

VOTERS AND EVEN HIS OWN PEOPLE

AND THE BASE TO A POINT THAT

THEY DON'T TURN OUT, AND HE

WOULD DO IT TO TRY TO SAVE FACE

THAT THIS ELECTION THAT IS

RIGGED AND WHAT NOT, NOT CARING.

THAT IT'S GOING TO DAMAGE

REPUBLICANS ALL UP AND DOWN THE

TICKET IF THOSE VOTERS DON'T

TURN OUT.

LET'S FACE IT, DONALD TRUMP

DOESN'T CARE ABOUT ANYBODY OTHER

THAN DONALD TRUMP.

>> I AGREE WITH THAT.

I DON'T AGREE THAT IT WILL HAVE

IMPACT THAT MUCH BECAUSE I THINK

REPUBLICAN BASE VOTERS --

REPUBLICAN VOTERS ARE STILL

GOING TO GO VOTE FOR THEIR DOWN

BALLOT PEOPLE.

THEY MAY HEAR WHAT HE SAYS, BUT

I THINK -- I MEAN, THE TYPICAL

VOTER IS GOING TO LOOK AT THAT

AND SAY, ARE YOU FREAKING

KIDDING?

THEY WILL SAY THIS HAS BEEN A

HOAX.

THEY'RE GOING TO GO OUT AND SAY

A REPUBLICAN VOTER AT THAT POINT

WILL SAY, WELL, WE'VE GOT TO

HAVE A CHECK ON HILLARY, SO I

HAVE TO VOTE FOR THE REPUBLICAN

HOUSE MEMBER AND THE REPUBLICAN

SENATE.

>> COME 2020 DOES THIS

DIVISION --

>> DEMOCRATS WILL BE STUCK WITH

CLINTON AND, YOU KNOW, IS SHE

GOING TO BE A ONE-TERM

PRESIDENT?

MAYBE.

>> THAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY AS

SOON AS SHE STEPS INTO THE WHITE

HOUSE WHAT SHE'S DOING AND HOW

THE PUBLIC RECEIVES THAT.

SHE'S GOING TO HAVE -- SHE'S GOT

THREE MONTHS NOW AND THEN

POTENTIALLY FOUR YEARS TO START

CHANGING THE PERCEPTION OF HER

AND WORKING ON HER FAVORABILITY

RATING, AND WE'VE SEEN SWINGS IN

THAT.

SHE DOES HAVE WORK TO DO.

>> THAT CONCLUDES OUR PROGRAM.

PRIMARIES ARE TUESDAY, AUGUST

30th.

ELECTION RESULTS CAN BE FOUND ON

OUR WEBSITE THAT NIGHT AND INTO

THE NEXT DAY ON NPR 89.1.

PLUS, AN ANALYSIS ON NEXT WEEK'S

PROGRAM.

FOR ALL OF US AT ARIZONA PUBLIC

MEDIA, I'M ELAINE.