WEBVTT 00:02.302 --> 00:05.136 align:start . 00:05.139 --> 00:06.637 align:start >>> ARIZONA POLITICO FOUND OUT. 00:06.640 --> 00:07.705 align:start >> I'M A DIE-HARD REPUBLICAN. 00:07.708 --> 00:09.707 align:start I CAN'T VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP. 00:09.710 --> 00:10.041 align:start I'M NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR 00:10.044 --> 00:11.609 align:start HILLARY. 00:11.612 --> 00:11.976 align:start >> HELPING OR HURTING PARTY 00:11.979 --> 00:12.710 align:start POLITICS? 00:12.713 --> 00:14.445 align:start >> DONALD TRUMP MIGHT BE THE 00:14.448 --> 00:15.179 align:start GREATEST PRINT-OUT MACHINE FOR 00:15.182 --> 00:16.047 align:start DEMOCRATIC VOTERS THAT WE HAVE 00:16.050 --> 00:17.648 align:start EVER SEEN. 00:17.651 --> 00:18.049 align:start >> WHAT'S IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 00:18.052 --> 00:20.251 align:start TWO MONTHS? 00:20.254 --> 00:21.319 align:start >> NOW IT'S A GAME OF MAKING 00:21.322 --> 00:22.186 align:start SURE YOU DON'T HAVE ANY UNFORCED 00:22.189 --> 00:22.954 align:start ERRORS, AND YOU SHOULD HAVE A 00:22.957 --> 00:23.721 align:start PATH TO THE PRESIDENCY. 00:23.724 --> 00:25.356 align:start IT'S SET. 00:25.359 --> 00:26.891 align:start >> SOME OF ARIZONA'S BEST 00:26.894 --> 00:28.126 align:start POLITICAL STRATEGISTS WEIGH IN 00:28.129 --> 00:28.493 align:start ON WHAT'S BECOMING A HISTORIC 00:28.496 --> 00:42.273 align:start CAMPAIGN. 00:42.276 --> 00:43.074 align:start THIS IS ARIZONA WEEK. 00:43.077 --> 00:43.741 align:start >>> HELLO. 00:43.744 --> 00:45.410 align:start THANKS FOR JOINING US. 00:45.413 --> 00:46.544 align:start THIS ELECTION IS UNLIKE ANY 00:46.547 --> 00:48.780 align:start WE'VE SEEN BEFORE. 00:48.783 --> 00:51.082 align:start THE CAMPAIGN DOMINATED THE 00:51.085 --> 00:52.650 align:start AIRWAVES AND CONVERSATIONS. 00:52.653 --> 00:53.818 align:start TODAY A DISCUSSION AMONG THREE 00:53.821 --> 00:55.820 align:start POLITICAL STRATEGISTS AND WHAT 00:55.823 --> 00:59.557 align:start THEY THINK WILL HAPPEN BEFORE 00:59.560 --> 01:00.525 align:start AMERICA ELECTS ITS NEXT 01:00.528 --> 01:02.126 align:start PRESIDENT. 01:02.129 --> 01:02.560 align:start HERE WE ARE A CONSERVATIVE STATE 01:02.563 --> 01:03.828 align:start TRADITIONALLY. 01:03.831 --> 01:04.162 align:start ARE THINGS ABOUT TO SHIFT IN 01:04.165 --> 01:05.129 align:start ARIZONA? 01:05.132 --> 01:06.364 align:start >> I DON'T THINK SO. 01:06.367 --> 01:08.066 align:start I THINK THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FOR 01:08.069 --> 01:09.000 align:start YEARS SINCE THE LATE 1990s 01:09.003 --> 01:09.967 align:start TALKED ABOUT HOW ARIZONA WAS 01:09.970 --> 01:11.736 align:start GOING TO SHIFT, AND THIS 01:11.739 --> 01:16.841 align:start STARTED, WHEN, IN 1996 WHEN BILL 01:16.844 --> 01:18.676 align:start CLINTON WON THE STATE. 01:18.679 --> 01:19.877 align:start THE ONLY REASON HE WON ARIZONA 01:19.880 --> 01:30.488 align:start WAS BECAUSE ROSS PEROT PULLED SO 01:30.491 --> 01:32.657 align:start MUCH OF THE VOTE AWAY FROM BUSH. 01:32.660 --> 01:34.192 align:start PEOPLE SAID THE DEMOGRAPHICS ARE 01:34.195 --> 01:34.926 align:start GOING TO CHANGE IN THE LAWSUIT 01:34.929 --> 01:35.760 align:start 1990s. 01:35.763 --> 01:37.862 align:start AT THIS TIME I SAID IT IS GOING 01:37.865 --> 01:38.196 align:start TO CHANGE IN A COUPLE OF 01:38.199 --> 01:39.497 align:start DECADES. 01:39.500 --> 01:39.964 align:start IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN ANY 01:39.967 --> 01:42.533 align:start TIME SOON. 01:42.536 --> 01:43.201 align:start HERE WE ARE TODAY. 01:43.204 --> 01:44.435 align:start DONALD TRUMP IS THE NOMINEE. 01:44.438 --> 01:46.404 align:start A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SAYING HE IS 01:46.407 --> 01:46.738 align:start GOING TO CLAIM THE LATINO 01:46.741 --> 01:49.073 align:start TURNOUT. 01:49.076 --> 01:49.607 align:start THE LATINO TURNOUT MIGHT SPIKE A 01:49.610 --> 01:51.209 align:start LITTLE BIT. 01:51.212 --> 01:53.344 align:start THERE MIGHT BE A HANDFUL. 01:53.347 --> 01:55.279 align:start FOR EVERY NEW LATINO VOTER THAT 01:55.282 --> 01:56.781 align:start TRUMP DRIVES OUT, A WHITE-COLLAR 01:56.784 --> 01:57.515 align:start DEMOCRAT IS GOING -- OR 01:57.518 --> 02:07.058 align:start BLUE-COLLAR DEMOCRAT IS GOING TO 02:07.061 --> 02:08.826 align:start VOTE FOR HIM. 02:08.829 --> 02:10.261 align:start IN 2024 IS WHEN WE'RE GOING ON 02:10.264 --> 02:11.195 align:start SEE A SHIFT IN THE DEMOGRAPHICS 02:11.198 --> 02:13.831 align:start WHERE THEY HAVE A REAL 02:13.834 --> 02:16.234 align:start OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE THE STATE 02:16.237 --> 02:19.070 align:start BLUE UNLESS REPUBLICANS COULD 02:19.073 --> 02:20.938 align:start FIGURE OUT A WAY TO EMBRACE A 02:20.941 --> 02:22.040 align:start YOUNGER POPULATION, HISPANIC 02:22.043 --> 02:23.274 align:start POPULATION INTO THEIR RANKS. 02:23.277 --> 02:24.475 align:start >> JASON, DO YOU THINK HILLARY 02:24.478 --> 02:24.842 align:start IS ABOUT TO TAKE ARIZONA THIS 02:24.845 --> 02:26.644 align:start ELECTION? 02:26.647 --> 02:28.813 align:start >> YOU KNOW, WELL, I AGREE THE 02:28.816 --> 02:30.314 align:start DEMOCRATS TALK ABOUT IT EVERY 02:30.317 --> 02:31.115 align:start YEAR, AND IT'S ONE OF OUR 02:31.118 --> 02:31.983 align:start TALKING POINTS WE HAVE EVERY 02:31.986 --> 02:33.284 align:start ELECTION CYCLE THAT WE'RE GOING 02:33.287 --> 02:35.620 align:start TO GET THE YOUTH VOTE, WE'RE 02:35.623 --> 02:37.855 align:start GOING TO GET THE HISPANICS TO 02:37.858 --> 02:38.589 align:start VOTE, AND IT RARELY HAPPENS. 02:38.592 --> 02:39.624 align:start WHAT IS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT 02:39.627 --> 02:41.659 align:start ABOUT THIS CYCLE, THOUGH, IS WE 02:41.662 --> 02:43.161 align:start HAVE TIME TO FOCUS ON REALLY 02:43.164 --> 02:44.762 align:start GETTING THE TURNOUT TO ENGAGE. 02:44.765 --> 02:47.131 align:start YOU DON'T HAVE TO REALLY ENGAGE 02:47.134 --> 02:48.766 align:start ANY POLICY DISCUSSIONS OR HAVE 02:48.769 --> 02:49.600 align:start PEOPLE TRYING TO ACCEPT IT. 02:49.603 --> 02:50.835 align:start WE KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON. 02:50.838 --> 02:52.270 align:start WE HAVE THREE MONTHS TO REALLY 02:52.273 --> 02:53.838 align:start KIND OF MOVE BODIES NOW. 02:53.841 --> 02:56.874 align:start WHAT IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM, 02:56.877 --> 02:58.009 align:start THOUGH, IS THAT I RARELY SEE 02:58.012 --> 03:00.278 align:start PEOPLE TURN OUT TO VOTE AGAINST 03:00.281 --> 03:01.012 align:start SOMEBODY, AND THEY USUALLY TURN 03:01.015 --> 03:02.413 align:start OUT TO VOTE FOR SOMEBODY, WHICH 03:02.416 --> 03:03.047 align:start IS WHERE WE'RE IN KIND OF A 03:03.050 --> 03:04.382 align:start PROBLEM RIGHT NOW BECAUSE 03:04.385 --> 03:06.150 align:start THERE'S NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO 03:06.153 --> 03:08.019 align:start ARE VERY ACCEPTING OF CLINTON AS 03:08.022 --> 03:09.987 align:start THEIR CANDIDATE, SO THAT COULD 03:09.990 --> 03:11.489 align:start BE THE PROBLEM WHERE ONCE AGAIN 03:11.492 --> 03:14.359 align:start WE'VE DONE A LOT OF TALK AND 03:14.362 --> 03:14.726 align:start HAVE LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT IN 03:14.729 --> 03:15.426 align:start NOVEMBER. 03:15.429 --> 03:17.528 align:start >> MATTHEW, DONALD TRUMP HAS 03:17.531 --> 03:18.196 align:start SAID THINGS THAT HAVE EVEN MADE 03:18.199 --> 03:19.263 align:start CONSERVATIVES CRINGE. 03:19.266 --> 03:21.733 align:start THAT HELP OR HURT HIM RIGHT NOW? 03:21.736 --> 03:23.601 align:start >> OH, OF COURSE, IT HURTS HIM. 03:23.604 --> 03:24.435 align:start HE HAS SHOT HIMSELF IN THE FOOT 03:24.438 --> 03:26.804 align:start MULTIPLE TIMES. 03:26.807 --> 03:28.840 align:start THIS IS A CANDIDATE WHO IS 03:28.843 --> 03:29.173 align:start LOSING MINORITY VOTERS BY 60 03:29.176 --> 03:30.508 align:start POINTS. 03:30.511 --> 03:30.842 align:start I MEAN, THAT'S AN INCREDIBLE 03:30.845 --> 03:32.577 align:start MARGIN. 03:32.580 --> 03:33.478 align:start HE IS LOSING COLLEGE-INDICATED 03:33.481 --> 03:34.746 align:start WHITES BY LARGE NUMBERS. 03:34.749 --> 03:37.682 align:start BY DOUBLE DIGITS. 03:37.685 --> 03:40.585 align:start HE IS LOSING WOMEN BY 15 POINTS. 03:40.588 --> 03:43.254 align:start I AGREE WITH SEAN THAT THIS TIME 03:43.257 --> 03:45.790 align:start WITH THE LATINO VOTE WHEN 03:45.793 --> 03:47.191 align:start ARIZONA GOES BLUE IS NOT HERE 03:47.194 --> 03:49.427 align:start YET, BUT DONALD TRUMP MAY BE THE 03:49.430 --> 03:51.129 align:start GREATEST TURNOUT MACHINE FOR 03:51.132 --> 03:55.400 align:start DEMOCRAT VOTERS WE HAVE EVER 03:55.403 --> 03:56.134 align:start SEEN, AND HIS RHETORIC -- I 03:56.137 --> 03:57.368 align:start DON'T KNOW THAT HILLARY CAN WIN 03:57.371 --> 03:59.971 align:start ARIZONA THIS YEAR, BUT HE IS 03:59.974 --> 04:01.539 align:start PUSHING SO MANY VOTERS INTO THE 04:01.542 --> 04:03.341 align:start DEMOCRAT COLUMN. 04:03.344 --> 04:04.642 align:start I THINK THAT HE IS FAST 04:04.645 --> 04:05.843 align:start FORWARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH 04:05.846 --> 04:07.078 align:start ARIZONA BEGINS TO SHIFT. 04:07.081 --> 04:09.547 align:start >> I THINK THAT -- I MEAN, I 04:09.550 --> 04:10.782 align:start DON'T KNOW THAT HE IS PUSHING 04:10.785 --> 04:13.685 align:start VOTERS INTO THE DEMOCRAT COLUMN 04:13.688 --> 04:14.218 align:start AS MUCH AS HE IS, LIKE, I'M A 04:14.221 --> 04:15.553 align:start DIE-HARD REPUBLICAN. 04:15.556 --> 04:17.655 align:start I CAN'T VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP. 04:17.658 --> 04:18.022 align:start I'M NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR 04:18.025 --> 04:24.696 align:start HILLARY. 04:24.699 --> 04:26.364 align:start YOU KNOW, I HAVE THE -- I KNOW 04:26.367 --> 04:28.700 align:start DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN. 04:28.703 --> 04:30.435 align:start I CAN BE PRINCIPLED IT, AND I 04:30.438 --> 04:30.902 align:start WILL PROBABLY WRITE IN MARCO 04:30.905 --> 04:33.404 align:start RUBIO, PROBABLY. 04:33.407 --> 04:34.005 align:start THE POINT IS THAT HE IS 04:34.008 --> 04:34.405 align:start ABANDONING CONSERVATIVE 04:34.408 --> 04:35.540 align:start PRINCIPLES. 04:35.543 --> 04:36.140 align:start HE ACTUALLY NEVER HAD 04:36.143 --> 04:37.442 align:start CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES. 04:37.445 --> 04:39.510 align:start IF YOU WATCH HIS CONVENTION 04:39.513 --> 04:41.846 align:start SPEECH, I TWEETED THIS AT THE 04:41.849 --> 04:42.814 align:start TIME, THIS IS A 1960s THROWBACK 04:42.817 --> 04:43.348 align:start DEMOCRAT NATIONAL CONVENTION 04:43.351 --> 04:44.349 align:start SPEECH. 04:44.352 --> 04:45.350 align:start HE WAS TALKING ABOUT USING 04:45.353 --> 04:47.251 align:start GOVERNMENT TO CREATE JOBS. 04:47.254 --> 04:49.821 align:start YOU KNOW, BIG PROGRAMS. 04:49.824 --> 04:50.355 align:start I MEAN, HE PUT OBAMA STIMULUS 04:50.358 --> 04:54.158 align:start PACKAGE TO SHAME. 04:54.161 --> 04:55.259 align:start I MEAN, THIS IS A BIG 04:55.262 --> 04:56.194 align:start GOVERNMENT, YOU KNOW, I'M THE 04:56.197 --> 04:56.995 align:start GUY THAT'S GOING TO SOLVE ALL 04:56.998 --> 04:59.430 align:start THE PROBLEMS. 04:59.433 --> 05:00.531 align:start NOT ONLY THE BIG GOVERNMENT AND 05:00.534 --> 05:01.733 align:start THE DEMOCRAT PHILOSOPHY, AND 05:01.736 --> 05:02.367 align:start IT'S I'M THE GUY THAT'S GOING TO 05:02.370 --> 05:03.868 align:start GET IT DONE. 05:03.871 --> 05:04.769 align:start HE IS TOTALLY TAKING THE 05:04.772 --> 05:05.069 align:start EXECUTIVE BRAFRMG TO A NEW 05:05.072 --> 05:05.803 align:start LEVEL. 05:05.806 --> 05:07.105 align:start >> I THINK THAT'S RIGHT. 05:07.108 --> 05:08.272 align:start >> WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT PUSHING 05:08.275 --> 05:09.741 align:start VOTERS INTO THE DEMOCRAT COLUMN, 05:09.744 --> 05:10.341 align:start I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT FOLKS LIKE 05:10.344 --> 05:12.043 align:start SEAN. 05:12.046 --> 05:15.279 align:start I'M TALKING ABOUT YOUR, LET'S 05:15.282 --> 05:16.881 align:start SAY, A LATINO VOTER WHO MAY BE 05:16.884 --> 05:19.183 align:start CATHOLIC, MAYBE THEY'VE GOT 05:19.186 --> 05:20.418 align:start CONSERVATIVE SOCIAL VIEWS, 05:20.421 --> 05:21.486 align:start RIGHT, THEY OPPOSE ABORTION, 05:21.489 --> 05:22.553 align:start THEY'RE HARD-WORKING, AND THEY 05:22.556 --> 05:24.122 align:start HAVE VALUES THAT WOULD PUT THEM 05:24.125 --> 05:25.390 align:start MORE IN LINE WITH MAYBE A 05:25.393 --> 05:26.824 align:start REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE, BUT THEY 05:26.827 --> 05:29.127 align:start LOOK AT THE STANDARD BEARER OF 05:29.130 --> 05:30.662 align:start THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN 2016 AND 05:30.665 --> 05:32.664 align:start SAY I CAN'T VOTE. 05:32.667 --> 05:34.132 align:start THAT IS NOT MY HOME. 05:34.135 --> 05:34.465 align:start THAT PARTY IS NOT WHERE I 05:34.468 --> 05:36.100 align:start BELONG. 05:36.103 --> 05:36.968 align:start THEY'RE GOING TO END UP IN THE 05:36.971 --> 05:39.203 align:start DEMOCRAT COLUMN. 05:39.206 --> 05:39.537 align:start THIS YEAR AND MAYBE GOING 05:39.540 --> 05:41.739 align:start FORWARD. 05:41.742 --> 05:42.006 align:start THAT'S THE TRUE RISK HERE TO THE 05:42.009 --> 05:42.874 align:start GOP. 05:42.877 --> 05:44.308 align:start >> AND DONALD TRUMP HAS REALLY 05:44.311 --> 05:46.544 align:start OPENED UP THAT DOOR TO MAKE IT 05:46.547 --> 05:47.478 align:start HAPPEN BECAUSE IN ARIZONA THE 05:47.481 --> 05:49.647 align:start DEMOCRATS REALLY HAVEN'T SPENT 05:49.650 --> 05:51.115 align:start THE TIME OR MONEY HERE TO REALLY 05:51.118 --> 05:52.617 align:start ENGAGE AND TALK TO THOSE VOTERS, 05:52.620 --> 05:54.052 align:start BUT HE HAS NOW OPENED A DOOR 05:54.055 --> 05:55.953 align:start WHERE THE DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING, 05:55.956 --> 05:57.689 align:start HEY, YOU KNOW, WE'RE WINNING 05:57.692 --> 05:58.923 align:start ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE NATION. 05:58.926 --> 06:00.024 align:start LET'S SEE HOW MUCH MONEY WE CAN 06:00.027 --> 06:02.694 align:start SPEND IN ARIZONA AND START 06:02.697 --> 06:03.428 align:start LAYING THAT GROUND WORK, AND 06:03.431 --> 06:05.997 align:start THAT'S WHERE IT'S GOING TO PAY 06:06.000 --> 06:06.864 align:start OFF IN 2020, 2024, AND REALLY 06:06.867 --> 06:07.598 align:start ACCELERATE THE TIMELINE OF 06:07.601 --> 06:08.466 align:start DEMOCRATS HAVING AN IMPACT HERE 06:08.469 --> 06:10.768 align:start IN ARIZONA. 06:10.771 --> 06:12.937 align:start >> JASON, THIS IS THE FIRST 06:12.940 --> 06:13.304 align:start FEMALE NOMINEE FOR THE 06:13.307 --> 06:15.506 align:start DEMOCRATS. 06:15.509 --> 06:17.241 align:start IS SHE RUNNING THE RIGHT 06:17.244 --> 06:17.809 align:start CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE HUGE STAR 06:17.812 --> 06:19.477 align:start POWER IN DONALD TRUMP. 06:19.480 --> 06:21.112 align:start >> I THINK SHE'S RUNNING A GREAT 06:21.115 --> 06:22.113 align:start CAMPAIGN RIGHT NOW AGAINST 06:22.116 --> 06:24.282 align:start DONALD TRUMP. 06:24.285 --> 06:27.652 align:start I MEAN, THE NUMBER SHOWS. 06:27.655 --> 06:28.586 align:start YOU HAVE AN UNPOPULAR CANDIDATE. 06:28.589 --> 06:31.222 align:start YET, WITH DONALD TRUMP WHO HAS 06:31.225 --> 06:32.990 align:start CREATED THE OPPORTUNITY FOR HER 06:32.993 --> 06:33.825 align:start TO BASICALLY COAST BY, SHE'S 06:33.828 --> 06:34.525 align:start RUNNING THE CAMPAIGN SHE NEEDS 06:34.528 --> 06:36.260 align:start TO WIN. 06:36.263 --> 06:38.096 align:start KEEP HER HEAD DOWN NOW AND LET 06:38.099 --> 06:38.997 align:start THE NEXT THREE MONTHS GO BY 06:39.000 --> 06:40.298 align:start WITHOUT MAKING ANY ERRORS. 06:40.301 --> 06:41.666 align:start NOW IT'S A GAME OF MAKING SURE 06:41.669 --> 06:42.967 align:start THAT YOU DON'T HAVE ANY UNFORCED 06:42.970 --> 06:51.109 align:start ERRORS AND YOU SHOULD HAVE THE 06:51.112 --> 06:52.210 align:start PATH TO THE PRESIDENCY. 06:52.213 --> 06:53.544 align:start THE PERSON WHO IS GOING TO WIN 06:53.547 --> 06:55.113 align:start THE PRESIDENCY IS GOING TO DO IT 06:55.116 --> 06:56.414 align:start BY DEFAULT. 06:56.417 --> 06:57.148 align:start IF SHE DOESN'T SCREW IT UP, 06:57.151 --> 06:58.416 align:start SHE'LL WIN BECAUSE THIS OTHER 06:58.419 --> 07:00.184 align:start GUY IS SO BAD. 07:00.187 --> 07:01.953 align:start IF SHE WERE RUNNING AGAINST 07:01.956 --> 07:03.921 align:start ALMOST ANYONE ELSE, BUT MAYBE 07:03.924 --> 07:05.490 align:start NOT TED CRUZ, BUT IF MARCO RUBIO 07:05.493 --> 07:06.424 align:start WERE THE NOMINEE, SHE WOULD BE 07:06.427 --> 07:07.692 align:start DEAD AND DONE RIGHT NOW. 07:07.695 --> 07:13.631 align:start THIS WOULD BE MARCO IS WALKING 07:13.634 --> 07:14.799 align:start INTO IT WITHOUT ANY QUESTION. 07:14.802 --> 07:16.334 align:start THE NATION KRAIFZ CHANGE AND 07:16.337 --> 07:18.269 align:start SOMETHING NEW, AND THAT'S NOT 07:18.272 --> 07:20.972 align:start HILLARY CLINTON, AND DONALD 07:20.975 --> 07:22.407 align:start TRUMP IS NOT PALETABLE TO 07:22.410 --> 07:22.740 align:start ENOUGH PEOPLE TO BE THE KIND OF 07:22.743 --> 07:23.541 align:start CHANGE. 07:23.544 --> 07:24.042 align:start I DON'T THINK HE IS CHANGE 07:24.045 --> 07:27.712 align:start EITHER. 07:27.715 --> 07:29.847 align:start I STILL THINK THIS IS A BIG 07:29.850 --> 07:31.416 align:start HOAX. 07:31.419 --> 07:31.749 align:start HE HAD A CONVERSATION WITH BILL 07:31.752 --> 07:32.950 align:start CLINTON. 07:32.953 --> 07:33.384 align:start THEN HE ANNOUNCED HE IS RUNNING 07:33.387 --> 07:34.819 align:start FOR PRESIDENT. 07:34.822 --> 07:37.221 align:start THEN HE DOES EVERYTHING HE COULD 07:37.224 --> 07:37.622 align:start DO TO POSSIBLY SABOTAGE HIS OWN 07:37.625 --> 07:38.389 align:start NOMINATION. 07:38.392 --> 07:40.191 align:start PROBABLY NOT COUNTING ON THE 07:40.194 --> 07:42.226 align:start FACT THAT PEOPLE WERE SO FED UP 07:42.229 --> 07:44.195 align:start WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT AND HE 07:44.198 --> 07:46.931 align:start WAS -- THEY WERE -- SO MANY BETA 07:46.934 --> 07:50.234 align:start MALES LOOKING FOR THE ALPHA MALE 07:50.237 --> 07:50.902 align:start TO LATCH ON TO THAT HE BECAME 07:50.905 --> 07:52.003 align:start THE POPULAR GUY AND WON THE 07:52.006 --> 07:52.403 align:start NOMINATION. 07:52.406 --> 07:53.004 align:start NOMINATION. 07:53.007 --> 07:53.705 align:start NOW THAT HE HAS RUN THE 07:53.708 --> 07:54.472 align:start NOMINATION, HE CAN'T RUN THE 07:54.475 --> 07:55.873 align:start SAME KIND OF CAMPAIGN AND WIN, 07:55.876 --> 07:57.208 align:start BUT HE REFUSES TO PIVOT AND RUN 07:57.211 --> 07:57.942 align:start A REAL CAMPAIGN. 07:57.945 --> 07:59.143 align:start HE IS NOT A SENATOR. 07:59.146 --> 07:59.510 align:start HE IS NOT RUNNING A REAL 07:59.513 --> 08:00.345 align:start CAMPAIGN. 08:00.348 --> 08:01.546 align:start >> THIS IS NOT A HOAX. 08:01.549 --> 08:03.247 align:start I MEAN, THIS IS -- WE'RE RUNNING 08:03.250 --> 08:05.650 align:start FOR PRESIDENT HERE, CORRECT? 08:05.653 --> 08:07.618 align:start >> I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN GO SO 08:07.621 --> 08:09.053 align:start FAR AS TO CALL IT A HOAX, BUT I 08:09.056 --> 08:10.254 align:start WILL SAY -- I THINK THIS IS 08:10.257 --> 08:11.823 align:start CERTAINLY THE FIRST CAMPAIGN IN 08:11.826 --> 08:13.091 align:start MY LIFETIME AND MAYBE THE LAST 08:13.094 --> 08:15.660 align:start TIME ANY OF US WILL SEE IT IN 08:15.663 --> 08:17.362 align:start ANY OF OUR LIFETIMES WHERE A 08:17.365 --> 08:19.397 align:start MAJOR POLITICAL PARTY FIELDED A 08:19.400 --> 08:20.498 align:start NOMINEE WHO IS NOT RUNNING AN 08:20.501 --> 08:22.533 align:start ACTUAL CAMPAIGN. 08:22.536 --> 08:23.267 align:start HE IS NOT ON AIR. 08:23.270 --> 08:29.073 align:start HE DOESN'T HAVE ANY CAMPAIGN -- 08:29.076 --> 08:30.308 align:start HE HAS NO ADS ON AIR. 08:30.311 --> 08:30.842 align:start HILLARY CLINTON IS WINNING 9-1 08:30.845 --> 08:33.511 align:start IN AIR TIME. 08:33.514 --> 08:35.046 align:start HE DOESN'T HAVE FIELD OFFICES. 08:35.049 --> 08:37.882 align:start THERE'S NO GROUND GAME. 08:37.885 --> 08:38.149 align:start WE HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE 08:38.152 --> 08:41.219 align:start IT. 08:41.222 --> 08:41.753 align:start THERE IS PART OF ME THAT WONDERS 08:41.756 --> 08:42.487 align:start THIS CAN'T BE REAL. 08:42.490 --> 08:44.555 align:start THIS CAN'T BE SERIOUS. 08:44.558 --> 08:46.724 align:start >> HE IS A CELEBRITY 08:46.727 --> 08:48.826 align:start BILLIONAIRE, SO THAT BEING SAID, 08:48.829 --> 08:50.828 align:start IS THIS PART OF MAYBE JUST HIS 08:50.831 --> 08:55.400 align:start IDEA THAT HE HAS A NEED FOR 08:55.403 --> 08:57.402 align:start POWER, THE DESIRE TO LEAD? 08:57.405 --> 08:59.737 align:start >> I THINK IF YOU HAVE WATCHED 08:59.740 --> 09:00.071 align:start HIS SHOW, HE LIKES BEING IN 09:00.074 --> 09:01.906 align:start CONTROL. 09:01.909 --> 09:02.774 align:start IT WAS A GREAT IDEA, AND HE SAID 09:02.777 --> 09:04.142 align:start I'M GOING TO BECOME PRESIDENT OF 09:04.145 --> 09:05.209 align:start THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. 09:05.212 --> 09:05.677 align:start EVERYBODY WILL THINK I'M THIS 09:05.680 --> 09:07.412 align:start GREAT PERSON. 09:07.415 --> 09:08.646 align:start YET, WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO THE 09:08.649 --> 09:09.714 align:start PRACTICALITY OF IT AND HE HAS 09:09.717 --> 09:12.750 align:start ACTUALLY TO DO THE WORK ON IT, 09:12.753 --> 09:13.718 align:start HE DOESN'T WANT TO ENGAGE IN THE 09:13.721 --> 09:14.819 align:start POLICY DISCUSSION, HE DOESN'T 09:14.822 --> 09:15.620 align:start WANT TO BE -- TO HAVE THE 09:15.623 --> 09:17.388 align:start PROFESSIONAL SIDE OF BEING THE 09:17.391 --> 09:17.855 align:start PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 09:17.858 --> 09:20.591 align:start TO DEAL WITH. 09:20.594 --> 09:21.559 align:start HE JUST WANTS ALL THE GLORY, AND 09:21.562 --> 09:23.227 align:start THAT REALLY COMES OFF NOW THAT 09:23.230 --> 09:24.228 align:start WE ACTUALLY HAVE TO ENGAGE IN 09:24.231 --> 09:27.332 align:start THE POLICY DISCUSSION, AND IT 09:27.335 --> 09:28.299 align:start CAN'T JUST BE THE HEADLINES THAT 09:28.302 --> 09:29.200 align:start ARE SELLING HIM. 09:29.203 --> 09:31.002 align:start HE DOESN'T WANT TO DO THAT. 09:31.005 --> 09:32.070 align:start HE DOESN'T WANT TO ENGAGE IN 09:32.073 --> 09:33.071 align:start THAT POLICY DISCUSSION. 09:33.074 --> 09:35.940 align:start I THINK AMERICA, WHAT WE'RE 09:35.943 --> 09:37.408 align:start SEEING HERE, IS WE REALLY DO 09:37.411 --> 09:38.309 align:start NEED THAT. 09:38.312 --> 09:40.044 align:start WE CAN'T HAVE SOMEBODY THAT 09:40.047 --> 09:40.411 align:start THROWS UP THE HEADLINE OR THE 09:40.414 --> 09:41.646 align:start ONE-LINER. 09:41.649 --> 09:43.348 align:start WE NEED SOMEBODY TO ENGAGE IN 09:43.351 --> 09:44.349 align:start THAT DISCUSSION, AND FRANKLY, HE 09:44.352 --> 09:45.583 align:start IS NOT IT. 09:45.586 --> 09:47.418 align:start >> HE IS RICH. 09:47.421 --> 09:48.319 align:start HE PICKED THE WRONG CAN THE TO 09:48.322 --> 09:49.620 align:start RUN FOR PRESIDENT. 09:49.623 --> 09:50.888 align:start THIS ISN'T THE KIND OF PLACE 09:50.891 --> 09:52.857 align:start WITH A GUY LIKE HIS 09:52.860 --> 09:53.224 align:start PERSONALITY -- HE WANTS TO BE A 09:53.227 --> 09:56.060 align:start DICTATOR. 09:56.063 --> 09:57.261 align:start HE IS IN THE WRONG PLACE. 09:57.264 --> 09:58.196 align:start >>> MORE WITH THOSE THREE IN 09:58.199 --> 10:00.431 align:start JUST A FEW MINUTES. 10:00.434 --> 10:02.100 align:start MOVING NOW TO POLITICAL POLLS. 10:02.103 --> 10:03.201 align:start HOW ACCURATE ARE THE DATA, AND 10:03.204 --> 10:04.635 align:start WHAT DO SURVEYS TELL US ABOUT 10:04.638 --> 10:07.205 align:start THE ELECTIONS? 10:07.208 --> 10:10.641 align:start HERE'S MIKE NOBLE, A POLLSTER 10:10.644 --> 10:10.975 align:start WITH OH PREDICTIVE INSIGHTS IN 10:10.978 --> 10:12.543 align:start PHOENIX. 10:12.546 --> 10:14.545 align:start >> WHAT WE DO IS FIGURE OUT NOT 10:14.548 --> 10:16.214 align:start ONLY WHAT THE PUBLIC IS 10:16.217 --> 10:18.116 align:start THINKING, BUT ALSO WHERE WE 10:18.119 --> 10:19.283 align:start THINK THEY'RE GOING TO GO ON THE 10:19.286 --> 10:20.018 align:start ISSUES, AND IT'S VERY 10:20.021 --> 10:22.153 align:start INTERESTING WITH POLLING THAT I 10:22.156 --> 10:25.156 align:start THINK WE GET A BAD RAP SOMETIMES 10:25.159 --> 10:26.624 align:start BECAUSE, YOU KNOW -- BECAUSE 10:26.627 --> 10:28.493 align:start TECHNICALLY ANYONE COULD REALLY 10:28.496 --> 10:30.628 align:start POLL OR BE A POLLSTER. 10:30.631 --> 10:33.264 align:start THE TRICK IS FIGURING OUT WHO IS 10:33.267 --> 10:35.299 align:start LIKELY TO TURN OUT TO VOTE. 10:35.302 --> 10:36.834 align:start ESPECIALLY IN PRIMARY ELECTRICS 10:36.837 --> 10:38.169 align:start THAT ARE A PRIME EXAMPLE. 10:38.172 --> 10:39.604 align:start WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS OF 10:39.607 --> 10:40.471 align:start PRIMARY ELECTIONS HERE IN 10:40.474 --> 10:41.239 align:start ARIZONA, THE NUMBERS REALLY 10:41.242 --> 10:43.641 align:start DON'T CHANGE FROM PRESIDENTIAL 10:43.644 --> 10:44.942 align:start YEARS TO MIDTERM YEARS. 10:44.945 --> 10:45.576 align:start IT'S REALLY THE SAME FOLKS 10:45.579 --> 10:47.979 align:start COMING OUT TO VOTE. 10:47.982 --> 10:49.313 align:start WHEN YOU LOOK AT WE HAVE, LET'S 10:49.316 --> 10:52.550 align:start SAY, ONE MILLION RESIDENTS HERE, 10:52.553 --> 10:54.686 align:start RIGHT, AND THEN OF THOSE 50% OR 10:54.689 --> 10:56.020 align:start SO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE. 10:56.023 --> 10:56.754 align:start YOU HAVE THESE FOLKS THAT ARE 10:56.757 --> 10:59.957 align:start ACTUALLY GOING TO COME OUT AND 10:59.960 --> 11:00.958 align:start VOTE, BUT IN A PRIMARY, YOU HAVE 11:00.961 --> 11:01.392 align:start DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS, 11:01.395 --> 11:03.261 align:start INDEPENDENTS. 11:03.264 --> 11:03.594 align:start NOW IT'S EVEN DOWN TO A SMALLER 11:03.597 --> 11:06.064 align:start SLIVER. 11:06.067 --> 11:08.833 align:start HOW DO WE FIGURE OUT BASED ON, 11:08.836 --> 11:09.567 align:start YOU KNOW, WHAT WE THINK THE 11:09.570 --> 11:10.568 align:start TURNOUT IS GOING TO BE AND THE 11:10.571 --> 11:11.736 align:start FOLKS THAT ARE LIKELY TO VOTE. 11:11.739 --> 11:12.036 align:start WHERE THOSE FOLKS ARE GOING TO 11:12.039 --> 11:14.906 align:start FALL. 11:14.909 --> 11:15.473 align:start >> HOW DO YOU COLLECT THIS DATA? 11:15.476 --> 11:16.207 align:start IS IT OVER THE PHONE? 11:16.210 --> 11:18.943 align:start >> WELL, YOU COLLECT IT OVER THE 11:18.946 --> 11:19.377 align:start PHONE, BUT YOU GO BASED ON THEIR 11:19.380 --> 11:21.646 align:start VOTER HISTORY. 11:21.649 --> 11:22.847 align:start AS SOMEONE WERE TO -- IF I KNEW 11:22.850 --> 11:25.183 align:start YOU VOTED FOUR OUT OF THE LAST 11:25.186 --> 11:26.184 align:start FOUR ELECTIONS, ABOUT 95% CHANCE 11:26.187 --> 11:27.785 align:start YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO BE 11:27.788 --> 11:29.153 align:start VOTING AGAIN, RIGHT? 11:29.156 --> 11:30.688 align:start OR LET'S SAY YOU'RE VOTED OUT OF 11:30.691 --> 11:32.423 align:start THE LAST THREE ON TO FOUR, 11:32.426 --> 11:33.925 align:start THERE'S AN 85% CHANCE OF VOTING. 11:33.928 --> 11:36.928 align:start AS YOU GO FARTHER DOWN THE LINE, 11:36.931 --> 11:38.229 align:start IF YOU NEVER VOTED IN ELECTIONS, 11:38.232 --> 11:40.531 align:start WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT YOU 11:40.534 --> 11:40.999 align:start POSSIBLY ARE GOING TO BE COMING 11:41.002 --> 11:42.166 align:start OUT TO VOTE NOW? 11:42.169 --> 11:44.202 align:start THAT'S WHY I THINK YOU SEE THE 11:44.205 --> 11:45.770 align:start ISSUES IN POLLING IS WHEN THEY 11:45.773 --> 11:48.906 align:start JUST SAID THEY SAMPLED 11:48.909 --> 11:50.008 align:start REGISTERED VOTERS. 11:50.011 --> 11:50.742 align:start IT'S GREAT YOU'RE A REBELLING 11:50.745 --> 11:51.442 align:start REGISTERED VOTER, BUT ARE YOU 11:51.445 --> 11:52.276 align:start REGISTERED VOTER, BUT ARE YOU 11:52.279 --> 11:52.643 align:start GOING TO BE VOTING IN THIS 11:52.646 --> 11:54.045 align:start ELECTION? 11:54.048 --> 11:55.013 align:start YOU ALSO ASK IN THE BEGINNING. 11:55.016 --> 11:56.547 align:start WE KNOW THEIR HISTORY, BUT THEN 11:56.550 --> 11:58.216 align:start WE VERIFY THAT AND SAY HOW 11:58.219 --> 11:59.784 align:start LIKELY ARE YOU TO VOTE IN THIS 11:59.787 --> 12:00.985 align:start UPCOMING ELECTION, AND UNLESS 12:00.988 --> 12:01.719 align:start YOU'RE VERY LIKELY OR LIKELY, I 12:01.722 --> 12:03.888 align:start DON'T THINK YOU SHOULD PROBABLY 12:03.891 --> 12:04.222 align:start BE TAKING THIS SURVEY, IN MY 12:04.225 --> 12:06.491 align:start OPINION. 12:06.494 --> 12:07.225 align:start >> SOME OF THE POLLS HAVE BEEN 12:07.228 --> 12:08.760 align:start OFF WHEN IT COMES TO HOW DONALD 12:08.763 --> 12:11.262 align:start TRUMP IS DOING, HOW HILLARY 12:11.265 --> 12:11.996 align:start CLINTON IS DOING. 12:11.999 --> 12:13.131 align:start THAT LEAVES THE AMERICAN VOTER 12:13.134 --> 12:14.432 align:start TO QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT THESE 12:14.435 --> 12:15.299 align:start POLLS ARE GOING WE SHOULD EVEN 12:15.302 --> 12:15.833 align:start BE TALKING ABOUT. 12:15.836 --> 12:17.869 align:start >> CORRECT. 12:17.872 --> 12:18.202 align:start I THINK YOU HEAR FROM DIFFERENT 12:18.205 --> 12:19.537 align:start ANGLES. 12:19.540 --> 12:21.839 align:start I THINK THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS 12:21.842 --> 12:24.609 align:start SAYING THESE POLLS ARE WRONG. 12:24.612 --> 12:25.810 align:start IT MAY BE, BUT OVERALL THERE 12:25.813 --> 12:26.844 align:start DEFINITELY IS A SCIENCE TO 12:26.847 --> 12:28.012 align:start MODERATE ESH DAY POLLING, AND, 12:28.015 --> 12:29.180 align:start YEAH, SOME FOLKS ARE GOING TO BE 12:29.183 --> 12:31.616 align:start WRONG, AND THAT'S WHY IT REALLY 12:31.619 --> 12:32.016 align:start COMES DOWN TO THE POLLSTER AND 12:32.019 --> 12:35.420 align:start METHODOLOGY. 12:35.423 --> 12:37.522 align:start I THINK IF YOU KNOW IN A CERTAIN 12:37.525 --> 12:38.823 align:start DISTRICT THAT THERE'S A HEAVY 12:38.826 --> 12:39.957 align:start HISPANIC POPULATION, YOU KNOW, 12:39.960 --> 12:42.760 align:start THEY'RE MOTIVATED TO VOTE, YOU 12:42.763 --> 12:43.528 align:start WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT'S 12:43.531 --> 12:45.530 align:start REPRESENTATIVE IN YOUR SAMPLE. 12:45.533 --> 12:47.498 align:start IF YOU DON'T SAMPLE ANY OF THOSE 12:47.501 --> 12:48.199 align:start HISPANICS, YOU'RE GOING TO BE 12:48.202 --> 12:49.000 align:start OFF BECAUSE HAVE YOU TO TAKE 12:49.003 --> 12:51.302 align:start INTO ACCOUNT BECAUSE EACH 12:51.305 --> 12:53.438 align:start DISTRICT, EACH ELECTION HAS ITS 12:53.441 --> 12:55.273 align:start OWN DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC. 12:55.276 --> 12:57.375 align:start IT'S VERY INTERESTING TO SEE, 12:57.378 --> 12:59.544 align:start YOU KNOW, WHY -- I SAW ONE POLL. 12:59.547 --> 12:59.877 align:start I THINK THE FOLKS WERE OFF BY 80 12:59.880 --> 13:01.546 align:start POINTS. 13:01.549 --> 13:02.480 align:start ALSO, YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THAT, 13:02.483 --> 13:07.819 align:start OKAY, HAVE THEY BEEN PAID? 13:07.822 --> 13:08.553 align:start I HAVE YET TO SEE A POLL 13:08.556 --> 13:10.288 align:start RELEASED WHERE IT WASN'T GOOD 13:10.291 --> 13:10.988 align:start FOR THEIR CLIENT IF THEY WEREN'T 13:10.991 --> 13:13.658 align:start PAID BY THEM. 13:13.661 --> 13:15.526 align:start YOU WANT TO LOOK FOR FOLKS THAT 13:15.529 --> 13:16.260 align:start DON'T HAVE A DOG IN THE FIGHT 13:16.263 --> 13:17.495 align:start BECAUSE THEY'RE TRULY LOOKING AT 13:17.498 --> 13:19.163 align:start THE RACE COMPARED TO SOMEONE 13:19.166 --> 13:21.699 align:start THAT SAYS I'LL PAY X AMOUNT OF 13:21.702 --> 13:23.401 align:start DOLLARS TO DO A POLL. 13:23.404 --> 13:25.069 align:start YOU KNOW, THE CHANCES -- YOU CAN 13:25.072 --> 13:26.671 align:start PUSH SOMEONE ANY WAY YOU WOULD 13:26.674 --> 13:29.440 align:start LIKE, AND IT'S JUST HOW DO YOU 13:29.443 --> 13:29.741 align:start DO IN AN UNBIASSED MANNER, I 13:29.744 --> 13:32.477 align:start GUESS. 13:32.480 --> 13:33.478 align:start THAT'S REALLY THE TRICK. 13:33.481 --> 13:34.979 align:start I THINK THAT'S THE THING YOU 13:34.982 --> 13:36.047 align:start HAVE TO LOOK AT. 13:36.050 --> 13:36.547 align:start IS THERE PERSONAL INTEREST 13:36.550 --> 13:37.715 align:start INVOLVED? 13:37.718 --> 13:40.284 align:start I THINK THAT COULD BE -- THAT'S 13:40.287 --> 13:40.618 align:start WHERE YOU MIGHT SEE SOME OF THE 13:40.621 --> 13:41.352 align:start ISSUES. 13:41.355 --> 13:42.153 align:start >> ONE THING WE HEAR IS TWO WHO 13:42.156 --> 13:43.254 align:start HAS TIME FOR POLLS? 13:43.257 --> 13:44.188 align:start WHO ALREADY ARE THESE PEOPLE 13:44.191 --> 13:46.491 align:start YOU'RE CALLING? 13:46.494 --> 13:47.525 align:start >> THAT IS THE OTHER CHALLENGE 13:47.528 --> 13:48.693 align:start THAT WE'VE BEEN FIND AND THAT 13:48.696 --> 13:50.628 align:start WE'VE BEEN HAVING TO ADAPT. 13:50.631 --> 13:51.863 align:start THE OLDER GENERATION IS MORE 13:51.866 --> 13:54.399 align:start USED TO IT. 13:54.402 --> 13:56.200 align:start ALSO, THE YOUNGER GENERATION IS 13:56.203 --> 13:58.970 align:start NOT AND ALSO WITH THE CONVERSION 13:58.973 --> 13:59.370 align:start OF HOW FOLKS GET THEIR 13:59.373 --> 14:00.872 align:start INFORMATION. 14:00.875 --> 14:01.939 align:start BEFORE EVERYONE HAD A LAND LINE. 14:01.942 --> 14:03.474 align:start NOW IT'S VERY FEW. 14:03.477 --> 14:05.276 align:start IT'S TOUGH TO FIND ANYBODY 14:05.279 --> 14:06.444 align:start UNDER, I WOULD SAY, 30 THAT HAS 14:06.447 --> 14:07.912 align:start A LAND LINE. 14:07.915 --> 14:10.548 align:start YOU KNOW, YOU ARE SEEING MORE OF 14:10.551 --> 14:11.616 align:start A MIXTURE OF LEANING TOWARDS 14:11.619 --> 14:14.185 align:start CELL PHONES COMPARED TO 14:14.188 --> 14:15.787 align:start AUTOMATED, AND THEN ALSO ON-LINE 14:15.790 --> 14:17.522 align:start SURVEYS, WHICH ARE STILL WORKING 14:17.525 --> 14:19.524 align:start ON PERFECTING. 14:19.527 --> 14:20.158 align:start YOU'RE SEEING DEFINITELY A TREND 14:20.161 --> 14:23.861 align:start OF THAT. 14:23.864 --> 14:24.962 align:start FOLKS JUST AREN'T AS ENGAGED, I 14:24.965 --> 14:26.764 align:start THINK, IS WHAT THEY PROBABLY 14:26.767 --> 14:27.565 align:start WERE 20, 30 YEARS AGO. 14:27.568 --> 14:29.067 align:start >> ARE YOU TAILORING YOUR PHONE 14:29.070 --> 14:29.734 align:start CALLS AT A CERTAIN TIME BECAUSE 14:29.737 --> 14:30.435 align:start OF PEOPLE'S WORK? 14:30.438 --> 14:31.669 align:start >> YEAH. 14:31.672 --> 14:33.871 align:start TYPICALLY I WOULD SAY WE USUALLY 14:33.874 --> 14:35.206 align:start WOULD GO IN THE EVENING. 14:35.209 --> 14:36.574 align:start YOU TYPICALLY STAY AWAY FROM 14:36.577 --> 14:39.043 align:start FRIDAY NIGHTS, THOUGH. 14:39.046 --> 14:39.977 align:start YOU TYPICALLY -- YOU ALWAYS SEE 14:39.980 --> 14:40.345 align:start LOWER RESPONSE TIMES ON 14:40.348 --> 14:41.612 align:start WEEKENDS. 14:41.615 --> 14:43.348 align:start PEOPLE ARE OUT AND ABOUT. 14:43.351 --> 14:44.315 align:start THEY COULD BE RUNNING ERRANDS, 14:44.318 --> 14:46.050 align:start DON'T HAVE TIME. 14:46.053 --> 14:47.952 align:start USUALLY EVENING HOURS IS BEST. 14:47.955 --> 14:49.253 align:start POLLSTERS, YEAH, THEY GET A BAD 14:49.256 --> 14:51.389 align:start RAP, BUT IT'S BEING ABLE TO 14:51.392 --> 14:53.725 align:start FIGURE OUT, ONE, DO THEY -- IS 14:53.728 --> 14:55.960 align:start THERE A MOTIVATION BEHIND IT? 14:55.963 --> 14:57.195 align:start I HAVE YET -- ONE DAY -- I'LL 14:57.198 --> 14:59.831 align:start GIVE YOU A PRIME EXAMPLE. 14:59.834 --> 15:00.531 align:start I RELEASED A POLL IN ARIZONA'S 15:00.534 --> 15:02.300 align:start FIFTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 15:02.303 --> 15:03.368 align:start HERE, AND, YOU KNOW, THERE'S 15:03.371 --> 15:04.569 align:start FOUR FOLKS IN THE RACE. 15:04.572 --> 15:07.271 align:start WELL, ONLY ONE CAN BE NUMBER ONE 15:07.274 --> 15:09.574 align:start IN THAT POLL, RIGHT? 15:09.577 --> 15:11.275 align:start THE THREE THAT WEREN'T NUMBER 15:11.278 --> 15:12.944 align:start ONE IN THE POLL ALL SAID MY 15:12.947 --> 15:13.945 align:start NUMBERS ARE BAD, THE POLL IS 15:13.948 --> 15:16.147 align:start INACCURATE. 15:16.150 --> 15:17.215 align:start YOU KNOW, IT'S A BAD POLL. 15:17.218 --> 15:18.816 align:start POKING HOLES IN IT. 15:18.819 --> 15:21.052 align:start THEN, YOU KNOW, A MONTH LATER I 15:21.055 --> 15:22.120 align:start POLL, AND THEN THE PERSON THAT 15:22.123 --> 15:24.389 align:start WAS IN LAST IS ALL OF A SUDDEN 15:24.392 --> 15:25.923 align:start IN FIRST, AND ALL OF A SUDDEN 15:25.926 --> 15:27.825 align:start THEY DIDN'T HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH 15:27.828 --> 15:28.693 align:start THE NUMBERS. 15:28.696 --> 15:31.162 align:start IT'S INTERESTING THAT I HAVE YET 15:31.165 --> 15:32.163 align:start TO SEE THE DAY WHEN I RELEASE A 15:32.166 --> 15:34.165 align:start POLL THAT IS BAD FOR SOMEONE AND 15:34.168 --> 15:36.367 align:start THEY SAY, HEY, THAT GUY WAS 15:36.370 --> 15:36.934 align:start RIGHT ON OR THAT WAS A GREAT 15:36.937 --> 15:37.735 align:start POLL. 15:37.738 --> 15:40.038 align:start VICE VERSA. 15:40.041 --> 15:40.872 align:start IT'S JUST -- I THINK IT'S THE 15:40.875 --> 15:42.607 align:start NATURE OF POLITICS THAT YOU'LL 15:42.610 --> 15:43.641 align:start GET A LOT OF FOLKS THAT POKE 15:43.644 --> 15:47.412 align:start HOLES, AND I THINK WHAT YOU HAVE 15:47.415 --> 15:48.246 align:start TO BASE IT ON IS THAT YOUR 15:48.249 --> 15:50.615 align:start REPUTATION AND RECORD. 15:50.618 --> 15:53.718 align:start I THINK FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL 15:53.721 --> 15:54.786 align:start PRIMARY, I WAS THE CLOSEST IN 15:54.789 --> 15:55.386 align:start ARIZONA OUT OF EVERYONE, AND ONE 15:55.389 --> 15:57.622 align:start FOR ONE ON PRESIDENTIAL 15:57.625 --> 15:59.057 align:start PRIMARIES RIGHT NOW. 15:59.060 --> 16:00.858 align:start >>> GOING BACK NOW TO OUR 16:00.861 --> 16:03.394 align:start CONVERSATION WITH THREE OF 16:03.397 --> 16:03.795 align:start ARIZONA'S TOP POLITICAL 16:03.798 --> 16:07.832 align:start STRATEGISTS. 16:07.835 --> 16:10.335 align:start MATT AND JASON FROM VERITUS LLC 16:10.338 --> 16:10.668 align:start AND SEAN NOBLE FROM AXIOM PUBLIC 16:10.671 --> 16:12.270 align:start AFFAIRS. 16:12.273 --> 16:13.504 align:start THESE NOMINEES, THEY SAY, ARE 16:13.507 --> 16:16.207 align:start CHALLENGING EACH PARTY. 16:16.210 --> 16:17.909 align:start >> THERE'S A WIDE ARRAY OF 16:17.912 --> 16:21.012 align:start CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS, PEOPLE 16:21.015 --> 16:22.080 align:start WHO WOULD COUNT THEMSELVES AS 16:22.083 --> 16:22.647 align:start CONSERVATIVES FIRST AND 16:22.650 --> 16:25.316 align:start REPUBLICANS SECOND. 16:25.319 --> 16:26.150 align:start THEY SAY, LOOK, THIS GUY WILL 16:26.153 --> 16:27.251 align:start DESTROY WHAT WE'VE SPENT A 16:27.254 --> 16:29.987 align:start LIFETIME TRYING TO BUILD AND 16:29.990 --> 16:30.688 align:start PROTECT, AND THAT IS THE 16:30.691 --> 16:32.423 align:start CONSERVATIVE PHILOSOPHY ABOUT 16:32.426 --> 16:33.791 align:start THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT. 16:33.794 --> 16:34.926 align:start HE IS THE OPPOSITE OF THAT IN 16:34.929 --> 16:36.427 align:start ALMOST EVERY WAY. 16:36.430 --> 16:38.663 align:start IF HE GETS ELECTED, THAT'S GOING 16:38.666 --> 16:39.397 align:start TO COMPLETELY RESHAPE WHAT THE 16:39.400 --> 16:40.131 align:start CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT IN THE 16:40.134 --> 16:41.632 align:start REPUBLICAN PARTY LOOKS LIKE. 16:41.635 --> 16:43.201 align:start I THINK IF HE LOSES, WHICH HE 16:43.204 --> 16:45.103 align:start LIKELY WILL, THERE IS A CHANCE 16:45.106 --> 16:45.703 align:start THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WILL SAY, 16:45.706 --> 16:47.171 align:start OKAY, WAIT A MINUTE. 16:47.174 --> 16:48.139 align:start WE DID THE LITTLE EXPERIMENT. 16:48.142 --> 16:50.274 align:start IT CLEARLY DOESN'T WORK. 16:50.277 --> 16:51.876 align:start LET'S GET BACK TO NORMAL AND TRY 16:51.879 --> 16:55.380 align:start TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IT IS THAT WE 16:55.383 --> 16:57.115 align:start NEED TO DO SO THAT WE CAN MOUNT 16:57.118 --> 16:58.383 align:start A CANDIDATE AGAINST AN INCUMBENT 16:58.386 --> 16:59.217 align:start HILLARY CLINTON IN 2020 AND TAKE 16:59.220 --> 17:00.785 align:start BACK THE PRESIDENCY. 17:00.788 --> 17:01.519 align:start >> MATT, WHO IS THE BEST 17:01.522 --> 17:05.256 align:start CANDIDATE FOR ARIZONA WHEN IT 17:05.259 --> 17:06.824 align:start COMES TO THE ECONOMY, EDUCATION, 17:06.827 --> 17:07.892 align:start CROSS-BORDER RELATIONS? 17:07.895 --> 17:10.695 align:start WHO IS THE BEST CANDIDATE? 17:10.698 --> 17:11.062 align:start >> AMONG THOSE RUNNING FOR 17:11.065 --> 17:11.596 align:start PRESIDENT? 17:11.599 --> 17:11.896 align:start >> WOW. 17:11.899 --> 17:14.165 align:start OKAY. 17:14.168 --> 17:16.567 align:start >> GARY JOHNSON. 17:16.570 --> 17:19.504 align:start I MEAN, HE SAY LIBERTARIAN. 17:19.507 --> 17:20.471 align:start GARY JOHNSON WAS THE GOVERNOR OF 17:20.474 --> 17:21.105 align:start NEW MEXICO, UNDERSTANDS OUR PART 17:21.108 --> 17:24.008 align:start OF THE WORLD. 17:24.011 --> 17:24.742 align:start HIS RUNNING MATE, BILL WELLS, HE 17:24.745 --> 17:25.743 align:start WAS A VERY SUCCESSFUL GOVERNOR 17:25.746 --> 17:26.711 align:start IN MASSACHUSETTS. 17:26.714 --> 17:27.812 align:start BOTH REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS. 17:27.815 --> 17:28.746 align:start NOW THEY'RE RUNNING IN THE 17:28.749 --> 17:30.948 align:start LIBERTARIAN TICKETS. 17:30.951 --> 17:32.083 align:start FRANKLY, THEY ARE BY FAR, BY FAR 17:32.086 --> 17:33.551 align:start MORE SUPERIOR IN THE KIND OF 17:33.554 --> 17:35.386 align:start GOVERNMENT THAT THEY WOULD RUN 17:35.389 --> 17:36.921 align:start AND WHAT THEY WOULD DO FOR THE 17:36.924 --> 17:38.690 align:start COUNTRY THAN EITHER THE CLINTON 17:38.693 --> 17:39.157 align:start ADMINISTRATION OR TRUMP 17:39.160 --> 17:39.857 align:start ADMINISTRATION. 17:39.860 --> 17:41.092 align:start THEY HAVE NO HOPE OF WINNING. 17:41.095 --> 17:41.859 align:start >> YEAH. 17:41.862 --> 17:43.127 align:start THEY ARE SERIOUS CANDIDATES. 17:43.130 --> 17:45.096 align:start UNFORTUNATELY, IF THEY CAN'T HIT 17:45.099 --> 17:47.799 align:start THE 15% THRESHOLD, THEY CAN'T 17:47.802 --> 17:50.234 align:start EVEN GET ON THE STAGE FOR THE 17:50.237 --> 17:52.303 align:start DEBATES, WHICH ARE, YOU KNOW, 17:52.306 --> 17:53.638 align:start WHEN MOST AMERICANS ARE TUNING 17:53.641 --> 17:55.907 align:start IN. 17:55.910 --> 17:59.010 align:start YEAH, IT'S A SAD PLACE TO BE FOR 17:59.013 --> 17:59.644 align:start THOSE OF US WHO, YOU KNOW, ARE 17:59.647 --> 18:01.346 align:start RIGHT OR CENTER RIGHT. 18:01.349 --> 18:02.146 align:start >> I THINK IT'S A LITTLE BIT 18:02.149 --> 18:03.948 align:start CONCERNING OR AT LEAST I WOULD 18:03.951 --> 18:06.417 align:start BE CONCERNED FROM THE REPUBLICAN 18:06.420 --> 18:07.719 align:start STANDPOINT IN THAT, ONE, THE 18:07.722 --> 18:10.788 align:start CANDIDATE WHO DID -- DOES HAVE 18:10.791 --> 18:13.358 align:start OUR PARTY'S NOMINATION, ONE, 18:13.361 --> 18:15.860 align:start THEY STAND UP ON THE STAGE AT 18:15.863 --> 18:16.594 align:start THEIR CONVENTION, AND, TWO, 18:16.597 --> 18:17.462 align:start THERE'S ANOTHER POLITICAL PARTY 18:17.465 --> 18:19.797 align:start OUT THERE THAT SEEMS TO BE MORE 18:19.800 --> 18:22.900 align:start IN LINE WITH WHAT WE FEEL ARE 18:22.903 --> 18:23.634 align:start OUR IDEALS, AND I THINK THERE'S 18:23.637 --> 18:24.869 align:start SOMETHING TELLING THAT THERE'S 18:24.872 --> 18:26.270 align:start BEEN A DISCONNECT IN KIND OF 18:26.273 --> 18:27.739 align:start FROM THE TOP -- FROM THE 18:27.742 --> 18:29.240 align:start TREETOPS TO THE GRASSROOTS IN 18:29.243 --> 18:31.342 align:start THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AND THAT 18:31.345 --> 18:32.877 align:start IS HOW YOU ENDED UP WITH TRUMP 18:32.880 --> 18:33.478 align:start COMING UP TO POWER AND GAINING 18:33.481 --> 18:36.214 align:start THAT NOMINATION. 18:36.217 --> 18:37.615 align:start >> I THINK -- I MEAN, I HAVE -- 18:37.618 --> 18:38.816 align:start I KNOW THAT IT'S A STANDARD 18:38.819 --> 18:41.185 align:start TALKING POINT WITH THE 18:41.188 --> 18:43.254 align:start DEMOCRATS, NO OFFENSE, BUT THAT 18:43.257 --> 18:44.956 align:start YOU GUYS CREATED TRUMP. 18:44.959 --> 18:46.791 align:start HE IS YOUR -- I BELIEVE IT WAS 18:46.794 --> 18:48.660 align:start OBAMA THAT CREATED TRUMP. 18:48.663 --> 18:52.864 align:start OBAMA CAME INTO OFFICE AND 18:52.867 --> 18:53.831 align:start IMMEDIATELY DECIDED HE HAD A 18:53.834 --> 18:54.132 align:start DEMOCRATIC SENATE AND DEMOCRATIC 18:54.135 --> 18:54.999 align:start HOUSE. 18:55.002 --> 18:56.768 align:start HE IMMEDIATELY DECIDED HE WAS 18:56.771 --> 18:57.402 align:start GOING TO DO THINGS VERY 18:57.405 --> 18:58.936 align:start DIFFERENTLY THAN PREVIOUS 18:58.939 --> 19:00.304 align:start PRESIDENTS WHERE, WHEN REAGAN 19:00.307 --> 19:01.773 align:start HAD A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE AND 19:01.776 --> 19:03.741 align:start SENATE, HE WORKED CLOSELY WITH 19:03.744 --> 19:04.776 align:start TIP O'NEIL TO BROKER COMPROMISE 19:04.779 --> 19:06.310 align:start AND GET THINGS DONE. 19:06.313 --> 19:08.079 align:start OBAMA DECIDED HE WAS GOING TO 19:08.082 --> 19:09.313 align:start CRAM THROUGH A STIMULUS PACKAGE, 19:09.316 --> 19:10.948 align:start HE WAS GOING TO CRAM THROUGH 19:10.951 --> 19:12.116 align:start HEALTH CARE REFORM, AND HE DID 19:12.119 --> 19:12.650 align:start THOSE THINGS WITHOUT ANY 19:12.653 --> 19:14.018 align:start REPUBLICAN SUPPORT. 19:14.021 --> 19:15.153 align:start I MEAN, HE DECIDED HE WAS NOT 19:15.156 --> 19:16.788 align:start GOING TO SIT DOWN AND NEGOTIATE. 19:16.791 --> 19:19.824 align:start HE WAS GOING TO DO IT HIS WAY 19:19.827 --> 19:20.992 align:start AND NO OTHER WAY, AND IT COST 19:20.995 --> 19:22.694 align:start THE DEMOCRATS THE MAJORITY, AND 19:22.697 --> 19:27.565 align:start THE HOUSE AND SENATE IN -- OR 19:27.568 --> 19:29.067 align:start THE HOUSE IN 2010 AND SO HE HAS 19:29.070 --> 19:30.968 align:start CREATED AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE 19:30.971 --> 19:31.769 align:start EVERYONE FEELS LIKE NOTHING IS 19:31.772 --> 19:34.806 align:start GETTING DONE. 19:34.809 --> 19:38.910 align:start THIS HOSTILE NATURE. 19:38.913 --> 19:40.745 align:start I THINK IN MANY WAYS OBAMA IN 19:40.748 --> 19:43.247 align:start 2009-2010 WAS THE BEGINNING OF 19:43.250 --> 19:43.715 align:start WHAT BECAME THE PHENOMENON OF 19:43.718 --> 19:45.183 align:start TRUMP'S SUPPORT. 19:45.186 --> 19:47.285 align:start >> THE OTHER THING THAT WAS 19:47.288 --> 19:49.020 align:start CREATED IS THE RISE OF THE -- I 19:49.023 --> 19:49.554 align:start WOULDN'T EVEN CALL IT 19:49.557 --> 19:51.789 align:start CONSERVATIVE MEDIA. 19:51.792 --> 19:55.760 align:start I WOULD -- IT'S THE FRINGE. 19:55.763 --> 19:56.127 align:start IT'S THE SEAN HANNITY, RUSH 19:56.130 --> 19:58.463 align:start LIMBAUGH. 19:58.466 --> 20:00.031 align:start IT'S THE ENTERTAINMENT WING OF 20:00.034 --> 20:03.234 align:start THE CONSERVATIVE MEDIA WHICH HAS 20:03.237 --> 20:05.536 align:start CREATED AN ENTIRE GENERATION OF 20:05.539 --> 20:06.404 align:start VOTERS WHO BELIEVE THAT 20:06.407 --> 20:09.374 align:start CONSERVATIVES IN CONGRESS ARE 20:09.377 --> 20:10.942 align:start ALL SELL-OUTS, WHO BELIEVE THAT 20:10.945 --> 20:13.077 align:start IT DOESN'T MATTER THAT A 20:13.080 --> 20:16.280 align:start DEMOCRAT IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE. 20:16.283 --> 20:19.350 align:start THEY SHOULD SOMEHOW FORCE HIM TO 20:19.353 --> 20:21.819 align:start SIGN LEGISLATION UNDOING HIS 20:21.822 --> 20:22.453 align:start LANDMARK ACHIEVEMENT WITH OBAMA 20:22.456 --> 20:24.255 align:start CARE. 20:24.258 --> 20:25.056 align:start >> NOT ONLY THAT. 20:25.059 --> 20:26.257 align:start THEY BOTH BELIEVE THEY SHOULD 20:26.260 --> 20:27.025 align:start FORCE HIM TO DO IT, BUT THEY 20:27.028 --> 20:28.159 align:start DON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND IT. 20:28.162 --> 20:29.460 align:start YOU CAN'T EVEN GET THE BILL TO 20:29.463 --> 20:30.328 align:start HIM BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE 60 20:30.331 --> 20:32.130 align:start VOTES IN THE SENATE. 20:32.133 --> 20:34.832 align:start THEY'RE NOT SMART ENOUGH -- THIS 20:34.835 --> 20:36.334 align:start IS WHERE I FAULT TED CRUZ WHO 20:36.337 --> 20:37.669 align:start NEVER MADE THE POINT, WELL, WE 20:37.672 --> 20:39.337 align:start CAN'T GET IT THROUGH THE SENATE 20:39.340 --> 20:42.240 align:start BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE 60 VOTES. 20:42.243 --> 20:43.174 align:start PEOPLE JUST SAY, WOW, YOU HAVE 20:43.177 --> 20:45.376 align:start 55 REPUBLICAN SENATORS. 20:45.379 --> 20:48.079 align:start WHY DON'T YOU REPEAL OBAMA CARE? 20:48.082 --> 20:48.713 align:start THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND THE 20:48.716 --> 20:50.848 align:start PROCESS. 20:50.851 --> 20:52.984 align:start IT IS -- THE RUSH LIMBAUGHS AND 20:52.987 --> 20:56.587 align:start THE SEAN HANNITY'S OF THE WORLD 20:56.590 --> 20:59.390 align:start HAVE CREATED A SITUATION WHERE 20:59.393 --> 21:00.491 align:start WE TAKE PEOPLE WHO AREN'T AS 21:00.494 --> 21:03.861 align:start KNOWLEDGEABLE ABOUT THE PUBLIC 21:03.864 --> 21:04.862 align:start POLICY PROCESS AND FEED THEM 21:04.865 --> 21:05.830 align:start STUFF THAT SETS EXPECTATION THAT 21:05.833 --> 21:06.964 align:start IS ARE COMPLETELY UNATTAINABLE 21:06.967 --> 21:07.465 align:start BECAUSE THAT'S NOT THE WAY THE 21:07.468 --> 21:09.067 align:start PROCESS WORKS. 21:09.070 --> 21:11.436 align:start >> WHICH IS, AS YOU SAID, MAYBE 21:11.439 --> 21:12.837 align:start WHAT HAPPENED EIGHT YEARS AGO. 21:12.840 --> 21:13.137 align:start >> I JUST WANTED TO ADDRESS 21:13.140 --> 21:14.672 align:start THAT. 21:14.675 --> 21:14.972 align:start I DON'T THINK IT'S NECESSARILY 21:14.975 --> 21:17.775 align:start OBAMA. 21:17.778 --> 21:19.077 align:start I WOULDN'T PUT EVERYTHING IN HIS 21:19.080 --> 21:19.844 align:start COURT THAT HAS CREATED THIS 21:19.847 --> 21:20.845 align:start SITUATION, BUT WHAT HAS 21:20.848 --> 21:22.980 align:start OCCURRED, AND I THINK IT'S ON 21:22.983 --> 21:24.582 align:start BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE, IS A 21:24.585 --> 21:26.551 align:start DUMBING DOWN OF THE AMERICAN 21:26.554 --> 21:28.419 align:start POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HOW IT 21:28.422 --> 21:31.422 align:start WORKS AND HOW WE ADDRESS IT. 21:31.425 --> 21:32.357 align:start THE MERE FACT THAT WHEN 21:32.360 --> 21:34.025 align:start SOMETHING BAD HAPPENS OR IT'S 21:34.028 --> 21:35.226 align:start SOMETHING WE DON'T AGREE WITH 21:35.229 --> 21:36.961 align:start THAT'S PROPOSED, RATHER THAN 21:36.964 --> 21:38.663 align:start ENGAGE IN A POLICY DISCUSSION, 21:38.666 --> 21:39.964 align:start WE KIND OF THROW BOMBS OUT THERE 21:39.967 --> 21:41.799 align:start AND LIKE TO YELL AND SCREAM AT 21:41.802 --> 21:43.668 align:start EACH OTHER, AND THAT HAS CREATED 21:43.671 --> 21:45.803 align:start A SITUATION WHERE AMERICA AND 21:45.806 --> 21:47.372 align:start AMERICANS AREN'T ENGAGING OR 21:47.375 --> 21:48.139 align:start EDUCATING OURSELVES IN THE 21:48.142 --> 21:48.940 align:start ISSUES THAT OUR COUNTRY HAS TO 21:48.943 --> 21:50.108 align:start FACE EVERY DAY. 21:50.111 --> 21:52.410 align:start >> WHAT DOES IT SAY, THOUGH, 21:52.413 --> 21:53.144 align:start THAT ALL THESE THINGS HAVE BEEN 21:53.147 --> 21:55.113 align:start HAPPENING, AND DONALD TRUMP HAS 21:55.116 --> 21:56.614 align:start BEEN VERY POPULAR WITH THE 21:56.617 --> 21:57.849 align:start AMERICAN PUBLIC? 21:57.852 --> 22:00.151 align:start AS WE HEARD -- 22:00.154 --> 22:00.885 align:start >> I DON'T THINK HE HAS BEEN 22:00.888 --> 22:01.219 align:start VERY POPULAR AMONG THE AMERICAN 22:01.222 --> 22:02.787 align:start PUBLIC. 22:02.790 --> 22:05.223 align:start HE HAS BEEN POPULAR AMONG JUST 22:05.226 --> 22:05.556 align:start OVER HALF THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 22:05.559 --> 22:07.592 align:start VOTERS. 22:07.595 --> 22:07.925 align:start EVEN POLLING NOW, HE IS NOT 22:07.928 --> 22:10.862 align:start POPULAR. 22:10.865 --> 22:11.596 align:start HE IS THE LEAST POPULAR 22:11.599 --> 22:12.764 align:start PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE I THINK 22:12.767 --> 22:13.998 align:start WE'VE SEEN IN A LONG, LONG TIME. 22:14.001 --> 22:16.801 align:start >> AND THE ONLY ONE THAT COMES 22:16.804 --> 22:17.869 align:start CLOSE TO HIM IN UNPOPULARITY IS 22:17.872 --> 22:19.871 align:start HILLARY CLINTON. 22:19.874 --> 22:21.339 align:start IF SHE WINS -- IF EITHER OF THEM 22:21.342 --> 22:23.041 align:start WIN, WHICHEVER ONE WINS GOES 22:23.044 --> 22:24.308 align:start INTO THE WHITE HOUSE WITH THE 22:24.311 --> 22:26.644 align:start LOWEST FAVORABLE RATING IN THE 22:26.647 --> 22:28.279 align:start HISTORY OF OUR NATION AS A 22:28.282 --> 22:28.780 align:start PRESIDENT WALKING INTO THE OVAL 22:28.783 --> 22:32.150 align:start OFFICE ON DAY ONE. 22:32.153 --> 22:33.084 align:start >> WHAT HAPPENS IN NOVEMBER? 22:33.087 --> 22:34.419 align:start >> HILLARY CLINTON WINS, AND SHE 22:34.422 --> 22:35.653 align:start WINS BY A WIDE MARGIN. 22:35.656 --> 22:37.388 align:start I MEAN, THE POLLING THAT WE'RE 22:37.391 --> 22:39.190 align:start SEEING JUST OUT TODAY SHOWS 22:39.193 --> 22:41.826 align:start SHE'S UP 15 POINTS IN VIRGINIA. 22:41.829 --> 22:44.095 align:start SHE'S UP DOUBLE DIGITS IN 22:44.098 --> 22:44.462 align:start PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN, 22:44.465 --> 22:45.563 align:start COLORADO. 22:45.566 --> 22:46.998 align:start THE ONLY SO-CALLED SWING STATES 22:47.001 --> 22:48.566 align:start THAT ARE REALLY TRULY CLOSE AT 22:48.569 --> 22:52.036 align:start THIS POINT ARE FLORIDA AND OHIO. 22:52.039 --> 22:52.437 align:start SHE IS PUSHING, YOU KNOW -- 22:52.440 --> 22:53.871 align:start >> AND IOWA. 22:53.874 --> 22:56.374 align:start >> SHE'S PUSHLING IN THE STATES 22:56.377 --> 22:58.476 align:start LIKE ARIZONA, UTAH, GEORGIA. 22:58.479 --> 22:59.944 align:start THE NUMBERS -- THE TREND LINE, 22:59.947 --> 23:01.346 align:start IT'S STILL EARLY. 23:01.349 --> 23:02.780 align:start I MEAN, WE'RE ALMOST THREE 23:02.783 --> 23:04.349 align:start MONTHS OUT, BUT THE NUMBERS ARE 23:04.352 --> 23:04.782 align:start LOOKING TREMENDOUSLY BAD FOR 23:04.785 --> 23:06.017 align:start DONALD TRUMP. 23:06.020 --> 23:07.652 align:start >> THE HARD PART FOR THE HILLARY 23:07.655 --> 23:09.253 align:start CAMPAIGN RIGHT NOW IS GOING TO 23:09.256 --> 23:10.455 align:start BE KEEPING VOTERS ENGAGED AND 23:10.458 --> 23:11.356 align:start KEEPING THIS STILL A STORY 23:11.359 --> 23:13.558 align:start BECAUSE COME NOVEMBER THEY'RE 23:13.561 --> 23:14.759 align:start GOING TO HAVE -- RUN THE PROBLEM 23:14.762 --> 23:16.361 align:start WITH PEOPLE NOT CARING ANYMORE, 23:16.364 --> 23:18.896 align:start AND THEY'RE STILL GOING TO BE 23:18.899 --> 23:19.197 align:start NEEDING PEOPLE TO SHOW UP AND 23:19.200 --> 23:19.931 align:start VOTE. 23:19.934 --> 23:21.199 align:start IF THEY DON'T HAVE THOSE PEOPLE 23:21.202 --> 23:22.166 align:start TO SHOW UP AND VOTE AFTER THREE 23:22.169 --> 23:23.101 align:start MONTHS OF HEARING HILLARY IS 23:23.104 --> 23:23.501 align:start GOING TO WIN, THAT'S GOING TO BE 23:23.504 --> 23:25.636 align:start A PROBLEM. 23:25.639 --> 23:26.371 align:start THEY NEED TO BE ABLE TO KEEP 23:26.374 --> 23:27.105 align:start THOSE VOTERS ENGAGED AND WILLING 23:27.108 --> 23:29.340 align:start TO TURN OUT IN NOVEMBER. 23:29.343 --> 23:30.274 align:start >> I THINK HILLARY WINS. 23:30.277 --> 23:31.809 align:start I THINK WHAT HAPPENS IN THE 23:31.812 --> 23:33.444 align:start LONG-TERM IS PEOPLE ARE GOING TO 23:33.447 --> 23:35.446 align:start BE SO DISGUSTED BY THIS ELECTION 23:35.449 --> 23:36.381 align:start CYCLE THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A 23:36.384 --> 23:37.615 align:start HARD TIME GETTING PARTICIPATION 23:37.618 --> 23:38.649 align:start RATES IN FUTURE ELECTIONS 23:38.652 --> 23:39.283 align:start ANYWHERE CLOSE TO WHERE WE'VE 23:39.286 --> 23:42.520 align:start BEEN HISTORICALLY. 23:42.523 --> 23:44.022 align:start I THINK WE ARE TURNING PEOPLE 23:44.025 --> 23:45.790 align:start OFF IN DROVES, AND, YOU KNOW, 23:45.793 --> 23:47.392 align:start IT'S GOING TO BE BAD FOR 23:47.395 --> 23:48.960 align:start DEMOCRACY, BAD FOR OUR SYSTEM, 23:48.963 --> 23:50.862 align:start AND IT'S GOING TO TAKE A DECADE 23:50.865 --> 23:52.463 align:start OR MORE TO FIX. 23:52.466 --> 23:53.364 align:start >> DONALD TRUMP IS AT THE TOP OF 23:53.367 --> 23:53.698 align:start THE REPUBLICAN TICKET IN 23:53.701 --> 23:54.532 align:start ARIZONA. 23:54.535 --> 23:56.034 align:start HOW DOES THAT SHAKE OUT 23:56.037 --> 23:57.502 align:start THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE RACES 23:57.505 --> 23:59.170 align:start WE HAVE IN ARIZONA? 23:59.173 --> 23:59.470 align:start >> WELL, ONE, IT DOESN'T LOOK 23:59.473 --> 24:00.772 align:start GOOD. 24:00.775 --> 24:03.174 align:start I MEAN, THERE'S A TRUMP EFFECT. 24:03.177 --> 24:03.908 align:start IS THAT GOING TO TURN OFF THE 24:03.911 --> 24:05.109 align:start REPUBLICAN VOTERS, AND IF THEY 24:05.112 --> 24:05.843 align:start DON'T SHOW UP TO VOTE FOR 24:05.846 --> 24:07.779 align:start PRESIDENT, THAT'S GOING TO HAVE 24:07.782 --> 24:11.215 align:start A SEVERE IMPACT ON THE BALLOT. 24:11.218 --> 24:11.949 align:start THE LAST ELECTION CYCLE IN 2014 24:11.952 --> 24:14.452 align:start WE HAD A REPUBLICAN THAT WON BY 24:14.455 --> 24:16.287 align:start LESS THAN 1,000 VOTERS IN SOME 24:16.290 --> 24:17.155 align:start LEGISLATIVE VOTERS AND A 24:17.158 --> 24:18.523 align:start CONGRESSWOMAN THAT WON BY LESS 24:18.526 --> 24:20.358 align:start THAN 200 VOTERS. 24:20.361 --> 24:21.626 align:start ANY DECREASE IN THE TURNOUT, THE 24:21.629 --> 24:21.959 align:start REPUBLICANS COULD FEEL A LARGE 24:21.962 --> 24:23.361 align:start IMPACT. 24:23.364 --> 24:24.929 align:start HOWEVER, YOU HAVE TO BALANCE 24:24.932 --> 24:26.431 align:start THAT AGAINST THE UNPOPULAR 24:26.434 --> 24:27.265 align:start DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE THAT NOT A 24:27.268 --> 24:28.466 align:start LOT OF DEMOCRATS MIGHT SHOW UP 24:28.469 --> 24:29.934 align:start TO VOTE FOR. 24:29.937 --> 24:33.004 align:start YOU KNOW, I WOULD AGREE THAT 24:33.007 --> 24:33.738 align:start WE'RE JUST GO GOING TO HAVE A 24:33.741 --> 24:34.872 align:start LOW TURNOUT, AND WHAT THAT MEANS 24:34.875 --> 24:35.740 align:start AND HOW THAT AFFECTS IT, I CAN'T 24:35.743 --> 24:37.275 align:start TELL AT THIS POINT. 24:37.278 --> 24:38.676 align:start I THINK THERE'S A DANGER, BUT 24:38.679 --> 24:41.612 align:start I'M NOT SEEING IT. 24:41.615 --> 24:42.413 align:start IF WE HAVE THAT HISTORIC 24:42.416 --> 24:44.015 align:start HISPANIC TURNOUT AND THE YOUTH 24:44.018 --> 24:44.382 align:start SHOW UP, YEAH, THERE WILL BE A 24:44.385 --> 24:46.551 align:start CHANGE. 24:46.554 --> 24:48.586 align:start >> THERE GOES -- 24:48.589 --> 24:49.153 align:start >> AND THE INDEPENDENTS TOO, 24:49.156 --> 24:51.689 align:start RIGHT? 24:51.692 --> 24:53.524 align:start >> I MEAN, SENATOR McCAIN IS 24:53.527 --> 24:53.858 align:start GOING TO WIN RE-ELECTION PRETTY 24:53.861 --> 24:55.927 align:start HANDILY. 24:55.930 --> 24:58.096 align:start HIS RACE IS VERY INDICATIVE OF 24:58.099 --> 24:58.429 align:start OTHER SENATE RACES ACROSS THE 24:58.432 --> 24:59.530 align:start COUNTRY. 24:59.533 --> 25:00.732 align:start THEY'RE OUT-POLLING TRUMP. 25:00.735 --> 25:01.032 align:start THEY'RE GOING TO DO BETTER THAN 25:01.035 --> 25:02.000 align:start TRUMP. 25:02.003 --> 25:03.201 align:start IF TRUMP COLLAPSES, THEY'RE 25:03.204 --> 25:04.535 align:start STILL GOING TO WIN. 25:04.538 --> 25:05.103 align:start REPUBLICANS HOLD THE MAJORITY, 25:05.106 --> 25:05.803 align:start YOU KNOW. 25:05.806 --> 25:09.007 align:start McCAIN WINS. 25:09.010 --> 25:09.374 align:start I THINK AYOTTE WINS IN NEW 25:09.377 --> 25:12.910 align:start HAMPSHIRE. 25:12.913 --> 25:13.711 align:start PORTLAND WINS IN IT OHIO. 25:13.714 --> 25:15.313 align:start RUBIO WINS IN FLORIDA. 25:15.316 --> 25:17.548 align:start THE ONLY ONE THAT I WOULD SAY -- 25:17.551 --> 25:19.017 align:start THE TWO THAT ARE MOST AT RISK 25:19.020 --> 25:20.451 align:start NATIONALLY IN THE SENATE ARE 25:20.454 --> 25:21.919 align:start MARK KIRKLAND IN ILLINOIS AND 25:21.922 --> 25:23.421 align:start RON JOHNSON IN WISCONSIN. 25:23.424 --> 25:24.122 align:start EVEN RON JOHNSON HAS A CHANCE TO 25:24.125 --> 25:25.723 align:start PULL THIS OFF. 25:25.726 --> 25:28.026 align:start IT'S GOING TO BE -- YOU KNOW, 25:28.029 --> 25:29.227 align:start TRUMP WILL NOT HAVE THE DRAG 25:29.230 --> 25:31.729 align:start EFFECT THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN 25:31.732 --> 25:35.033 align:start TRYING TO PINE FOR. 25:35.036 --> 25:36.868 align:start REPUBLICANS WILL HOPE. 25:36.871 --> 25:37.669 align:start >> WE ALL KNOW THAT DONALD TRUMP 25:37.672 --> 25:40.972 align:start HATES MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE TO 25:40.975 --> 25:41.706 align:start BE A LOSER, AND HE HAS ALREADY 25:41.709 --> 25:43.074 align:start BEEN FLOATING THIS NOTION THAT 25:43.077 --> 25:43.408 align:start IF I LOSE, IT'S BECAUSE IT WAS 25:43.411 --> 25:45.009 align:start RIGGED. 25:45.012 --> 25:47.011 align:start THIS IS A RIGGED GAME. 25:47.014 --> 25:47.278 align:start THE ELECTION IS -- THE FIX IS 25:47.281 --> 25:49.514 align:start IN. 25:49.517 --> 25:50.815 align:start IF HE SEES THE -- IF WE GET 25:50.818 --> 25:52.083 align:start CLOSER TO ELECTION DAY -- 25:52.086 --> 25:53.251 align:start REMEMBER, WE START VOTING HERE 25:53.254 --> 25:54.352 align:start IN EARLY OCTOBER IN ARIZONA AND 25:54.355 --> 25:57.288 align:start IN OTHER STATES. 25:57.291 --> 25:58.623 align:start IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THE 25:58.626 --> 26:02.827 align:start THING IS OUT OF REACH, I WOULD 26:02.830 --> 26:05.630 align:start BE CONCERNED -- I AM CONCERNED 26:05.633 --> 26:06.764 align:start THAT HE DISSPIRITS REPUBLICAN 26:06.767 --> 26:08.032 align:start VOTERS AND EVEN HIS OWN PEOPLE 26:08.035 --> 26:09.067 align:start AND THE BASE TO A POINT THAT 26:09.070 --> 26:12.370 align:start THEY DON'T TURN OUT, AND HE 26:12.373 --> 26:13.371 align:start WOULD DO IT TO TRY TO SAVE FACE 26:13.374 --> 26:16.574 align:start THAT THIS ELECTION THAT IS 26:16.577 --> 26:17.608 align:start RIGGED AND WHAT NOT, NOT CARING. 26:17.611 --> 26:18.876 align:start THAT IT'S GOING TO DAMAGE 26:18.879 --> 26:21.846 align:start REPUBLICANS ALL UP AND DOWN THE 26:21.849 --> 26:22.213 align:start TICKET IF THOSE VOTERS DON'T 26:22.216 --> 26:22.880 align:start TURN OUT. 26:22.883 --> 26:24.982 align:start LET'S FACE IT, DONALD TRUMP 26:24.985 --> 26:25.483 align:start DOESN'T CARE ABOUT ANYBODY OTHER 26:25.486 --> 26:27.385 align:start THAN DONALD TRUMP. 26:27.388 --> 26:30.621 align:start >> I AGREE WITH THAT. 26:30.624 --> 26:32.824 align:start I DON'T AGREE THAT IT WILL HAVE 26:32.827 --> 26:33.925 align:start IMPACT THAT MUCH BECAUSE I THINK 26:33.928 --> 26:34.993 align:start REPUBLICAN BASE VOTERS -- 26:34.996 --> 26:36.594 align:start REPUBLICAN VOTERS ARE STILL 26:36.597 --> 26:37.161 align:start GOING TO GO VOTE FOR THEIR DOWN 26:37.164 --> 26:39.063 align:start BALLOT PEOPLE. 26:39.066 --> 26:40.331 align:start THEY MAY HEAR WHAT HE SAYS, BUT 26:40.334 --> 26:41.532 align:start I THINK -- I MEAN, THE TYPICAL 26:41.535 --> 26:43.334 align:start VOTER IS GOING TO LOOK AT THAT 26:43.337 --> 26:43.735 align:start AND SAY, ARE YOU FREAKING 26:43.738 --> 26:44.936 align:start KIDDING? 26:44.939 --> 26:45.236 align:start THEY WILL SAY THIS HAS BEEN A 26:45.239 --> 26:47.205 align:start HOAX. 26:47.208 --> 26:48.139 align:start THEY'RE GOING TO GO OUT AND SAY 26:48.142 --> 26:49.240 align:start A REPUBLICAN VOTER AT THAT POINT 26:49.243 --> 26:50.475 align:start WILL SAY, WELL, WE'VE GOT TO 26:50.478 --> 26:52.076 align:start HAVE A CHECK ON HILLARY, SO I 26:52.079 --> 26:55.013 align:start HAVE TO VOTE FOR THE REPUBLICAN 26:55.016 --> 26:55.346 align:start HOUSE MEMBER AND THE REPUBLICAN 26:55.349 --> 26:58.783 align:start SENATE. 26:58.786 --> 26:59.617 align:start >> COME 2020 DOES THIS 26:59.620 --> 27:01.185 align:start DIVISION -- 27:01.188 --> 27:02.687 align:start >> DEMOCRATS WILL BE STUCK WITH 27:02.690 --> 27:04.555 align:start CLINTON AND, YOU KNOW, IS SHE 27:04.558 --> 27:04.922 align:start GOING TO BE A ONE-TERM 27:04.925 --> 27:05.223 align:start PRESIDENT? 27:05.226 --> 27:08.459 align:start MAYBE. 27:08.462 --> 27:09.193 align:start >> THAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY AS 27:09.196 --> 27:10.495 align:start SOON AS SHE STEPS INTO THE WHITE 27:10.498 --> 27:11.629 align:start HOUSE WHAT SHE'S DOING AND HOW 27:11.632 --> 27:13.064 align:start THE PUBLIC RECEIVES THAT. 27:13.067 --> 27:15.800 align:start SHE'S GOING TO HAVE -- SHE'S GOT 27:15.803 --> 27:16.701 align:start THREE MONTHS NOW AND THEN 27:16.704 --> 27:18.636 align:start POTENTIALLY FOUR YEARS TO START 27:18.639 --> 27:20.772 align:start CHANGING THE PERCEPTION OF HER 27:20.775 --> 27:22.273 align:start AND WORKING ON HER FAVORABILITY 27:22.276 --> 27:22.573 align:start RATING, AND WE'VE SEEN SWINGS IN 27:22.576 --> 27:23.875 align:start THAT. 27:23.878 --> 27:25.576 align:start SHE DOES HAVE WORK TO DO. 27:25.579 --> 27:26.911 align:start >> THAT CONCLUDES OUR PROGRAM. 27:26.914 --> 27:27.845 align:start PRIMARIES ARE TUESDAY, AUGUST 27:27.848 --> 27:29.113 align:start 30th. 27:29.116 --> 27:30.748 align:start ELECTION RESULTS CAN BE FOUND ON 27:30.751 --> 27:35.253 align:start OUR WEBSITE THAT NIGHT AND INTO 27:35.256 --> 27:36.921 align:start THE NEXT DAY ON NPR 89.1. 27:36.924 --> 27:37.255 align:start PLUS, AN ANALYSIS ON NEXT WEEK'S 27:37.258 --> 27:38.489 align:start PROGRAM. 27:38.492 --> 27:38.990 align:start FOR ALL OF US AT ARIZONA PUBLIC 27:38.993 --> 27:41.459 align:start MEDIA, I'M ELAINE.