.
>>> ARIZONA POLITICO FOUND OUT.
>> I'M A DIE-HARD REPUBLICAN.
I CAN'T VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP.
I'M NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR
HILLARY.
>> HELPING OR HURTING PARTY
POLITICS?
>> DONALD TRUMP MIGHT BE THE
GREATEST PRINT-OUT MACHINE FOR
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS THAT WE HAVE
EVER SEEN.
>> WHAT'S IN STORE FOR THE NEXT
TWO MONTHS?
>> NOW IT'S A GAME OF MAKING
SURE YOU DON'T HAVE ANY UNFORCED
ERRORS, AND YOU SHOULD HAVE A
PATH TO THE PRESIDENCY.
IT'S SET.
>> SOME OF ARIZONA'S BEST
POLITICAL STRATEGISTS WEIGH IN
ON WHAT'S BECOMING A HISTORIC
CAMPAIGN.
THIS IS ARIZONA WEEK.
>>> HELLO.
THANKS FOR JOINING US.
THIS ELECTION IS UNLIKE ANY
WE'VE SEEN BEFORE.
THE CAMPAIGN DOMINATED THE
AIRWAVES AND CONVERSATIONS.
TODAY A DISCUSSION AMONG THREE
POLITICAL STRATEGISTS AND WHAT
THEY THINK WILL HAPPEN BEFORE
AMERICA ELECTS ITS NEXT
PRESIDENT.
HERE WE ARE A CONSERVATIVE STATE
TRADITIONALLY.
ARE THINGS ABOUT TO SHIFT IN
ARIZONA?
>> I DON'T THINK SO.
I THINK THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FOR
YEARS SINCE THE LATE 1990s
TALKED ABOUT HOW ARIZONA WAS
GOING TO SHIFT, AND THIS
STARTED, WHEN, IN 1996 WHEN BILL
CLINTON WON THE STATE.
THE ONLY REASON HE WON ARIZONA
WAS BECAUSE ROSS PEROT PULLED SO
MUCH OF THE VOTE AWAY FROM BUSH.
PEOPLE SAID THE DEMOGRAPHICS ARE
GOING TO CHANGE IN THE LAWSUIT
1990s.
AT THIS TIME I SAID IT IS GOING
TO CHANGE IN A COUPLE OF
DECADES.
IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN ANY
TIME SOON.
HERE WE ARE TODAY.
DONALD TRUMP IS THE NOMINEE.
A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SAYING HE IS
GOING TO CLAIM THE LATINO
TURNOUT.
THE LATINO TURNOUT MIGHT SPIKE A
LITTLE BIT.
THERE MIGHT BE A HANDFUL.
FOR EVERY NEW LATINO VOTER THAT
TRUMP DRIVES OUT, A WHITE-COLLAR
DEMOCRAT IS GOING -- OR
BLUE-COLLAR DEMOCRAT IS GOING TO
VOTE FOR HIM.
IN 2024 IS WHEN WE'RE GOING ON
SEE A SHIFT IN THE DEMOGRAPHICS
WHERE THEY HAVE A REAL
OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE THE STATE
BLUE UNLESS REPUBLICANS COULD
FIGURE OUT A WAY TO EMBRACE A
YOUNGER POPULATION, HISPANIC
POPULATION INTO THEIR RANKS.
>> JASON, DO YOU THINK HILLARY
IS ABOUT TO TAKE ARIZONA THIS
ELECTION?
>> YOU KNOW, WELL, I AGREE THE
DEMOCRATS TALK ABOUT IT EVERY
YEAR, AND IT'S ONE OF OUR
TALKING POINTS WE HAVE EVERY
ELECTION CYCLE THAT WE'RE GOING
TO GET THE YOUTH VOTE, WE'RE
GOING TO GET THE HISPANICS TO
VOTE, AND IT RARELY HAPPENS.
WHAT IS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT
ABOUT THIS CYCLE, THOUGH, IS WE
HAVE TIME TO FOCUS ON REALLY
GETTING THE TURNOUT TO ENGAGE.
YOU DON'T HAVE TO REALLY ENGAGE
ANY POLICY DISCUSSIONS OR HAVE
PEOPLE TRYING TO ACCEPT IT.
WE KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON.
WE HAVE THREE MONTHS TO REALLY
KIND OF MOVE BODIES NOW.
WHAT IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM,
THOUGH, IS THAT I RARELY SEE
PEOPLE TURN OUT TO VOTE AGAINST
SOMEBODY, AND THEY USUALLY TURN
OUT TO VOTE FOR SOMEBODY, WHICH
IS WHERE WE'RE IN KIND OF A
PROBLEM RIGHT NOW BECAUSE
THERE'S NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO
ARE VERY ACCEPTING OF CLINTON AS
THEIR CANDIDATE, SO THAT COULD
BE THE PROBLEM WHERE ONCE AGAIN
WE'VE DONE A LOT OF TALK AND
HAVE LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT IN
NOVEMBER.
>> MATTHEW, DONALD TRUMP HAS
SAID THINGS THAT HAVE EVEN MADE
CONSERVATIVES CRINGE.
THAT HELP OR HURT HIM RIGHT NOW?
>> OH, OF COURSE, IT HURTS HIM.
HE HAS SHOT HIMSELF IN THE FOOT
MULTIPLE TIMES.
THIS IS A CANDIDATE WHO IS
LOSING MINORITY VOTERS BY 60
POINTS.
I MEAN, THAT'S AN INCREDIBLE
MARGIN.
HE IS LOSING COLLEGE-INDICATED
WHITES BY LARGE NUMBERS.
BY DOUBLE DIGITS.
HE IS LOSING WOMEN BY 15 POINTS.
I AGREE WITH SEAN THAT THIS TIME
WITH THE LATINO VOTE WHEN
ARIZONA GOES BLUE IS NOT HERE
YET, BUT DONALD TRUMP MAY BE THE
GREATEST TURNOUT MACHINE FOR
DEMOCRAT VOTERS WE HAVE EVER
SEEN, AND HIS RHETORIC -- I
DON'T KNOW THAT HILLARY CAN WIN
ARIZONA THIS YEAR, BUT HE IS
PUSHING SO MANY VOTERS INTO THE
DEMOCRAT COLUMN.
I THINK THAT HE IS FAST
FORWARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH
ARIZONA BEGINS TO SHIFT.
>> I THINK THAT -- I MEAN, I
DON'T KNOW THAT HE IS PUSHING
VOTERS INTO THE DEMOCRAT COLUMN
AS MUCH AS HE IS, LIKE, I'M A
DIE-HARD REPUBLICAN.
I CAN'T VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP.
I'M NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR
HILLARY.
YOU KNOW, I HAVE THE -- I KNOW
DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN.
I CAN BE PRINCIPLED IT, AND I
WILL PROBABLY WRITE IN MARCO
RUBIO, PROBABLY.
THE POINT IS THAT HE IS
ABANDONING CONSERVATIVE
PRINCIPLES.
HE ACTUALLY NEVER HAD
CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES.
IF YOU WATCH HIS CONVENTION
SPEECH, I TWEETED THIS AT THE
TIME, THIS IS A 1960s THROWBACK
DEMOCRAT NATIONAL CONVENTION
SPEECH.
HE WAS TALKING ABOUT USING
GOVERNMENT TO CREATE JOBS.
YOU KNOW, BIG PROGRAMS.
I MEAN, HE PUT OBAMA STIMULUS
PACKAGE TO SHAME.
I MEAN, THIS IS A BIG
GOVERNMENT, YOU KNOW, I'M THE
GUY THAT'S GOING TO SOLVE ALL
THE PROBLEMS.
NOT ONLY THE BIG GOVERNMENT AND
THE DEMOCRAT PHILOSOPHY, AND
IT'S I'M THE GUY THAT'S GOING TO
GET IT DONE.
HE IS TOTALLY TAKING THE
EXECUTIVE BRAFRMG TO A NEW
LEVEL.
>> I THINK THAT'S RIGHT.
>> WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT PUSHING
VOTERS INTO THE DEMOCRAT COLUMN,
I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT FOLKS LIKE
SEAN.
I'M TALKING ABOUT YOUR, LET'S
SAY, A LATINO VOTER WHO MAY BE
CATHOLIC, MAYBE THEY'VE GOT
CONSERVATIVE SOCIAL VIEWS,
RIGHT, THEY OPPOSE ABORTION,
THEY'RE HARD-WORKING, AND THEY
HAVE VALUES THAT WOULD PUT THEM
MORE IN LINE WITH MAYBE A
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE, BUT THEY
LOOK AT THE STANDARD BEARER OF
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN 2016 AND
SAY I CAN'T VOTE.
THAT IS NOT MY HOME.
THAT PARTY IS NOT WHERE I
BELONG.
THEY'RE GOING TO END UP IN THE
DEMOCRAT COLUMN.
THIS YEAR AND MAYBE GOING
FORWARD.
THAT'S THE TRUE RISK HERE TO THE
GOP.
>> AND DONALD TRUMP HAS REALLY
OPENED UP THAT DOOR TO MAKE IT
HAPPEN BECAUSE IN ARIZONA THE
DEMOCRATS REALLY HAVEN'T SPENT
THE TIME OR MONEY HERE TO REALLY
ENGAGE AND TALK TO THOSE VOTERS,
BUT HE HAS NOW OPENED A DOOR
WHERE THE DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING,
HEY, YOU KNOW, WE'RE WINNING
ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE NATION.
LET'S SEE HOW MUCH MONEY WE CAN
SPEND IN ARIZONA AND START
LAYING THAT GROUND WORK, AND
THAT'S WHERE IT'S GOING TO PAY
OFF IN 2020, 2024, AND REALLY
ACCELERATE THE TIMELINE OF
DEMOCRATS HAVING AN IMPACT HERE
IN ARIZONA.
>> JASON, THIS IS THE FIRST
FEMALE NOMINEE FOR THE
DEMOCRATS.
IS SHE RUNNING THE RIGHT
CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE HUGE STAR
POWER IN DONALD TRUMP.
>> I THINK SHE'S RUNNING A GREAT
CAMPAIGN RIGHT NOW AGAINST
DONALD TRUMP.
I MEAN, THE NUMBER SHOWS.
YOU HAVE AN UNPOPULAR CANDIDATE.
YET, WITH DONALD TRUMP WHO HAS
CREATED THE OPPORTUNITY FOR HER
TO BASICALLY COAST BY, SHE'S
RUNNING THE CAMPAIGN SHE NEEDS
TO WIN.
KEEP HER HEAD DOWN NOW AND LET
THE NEXT THREE MONTHS GO BY
WITHOUT MAKING ANY ERRORS.
NOW IT'S A GAME OF MAKING SURE
THAT YOU DON'T HAVE ANY UNFORCED
ERRORS AND YOU SHOULD HAVE THE
PATH TO THE PRESIDENCY.
THE PERSON WHO IS GOING TO WIN
THE PRESIDENCY IS GOING TO DO IT
BY DEFAULT.
IF SHE DOESN'T SCREW IT UP,
SHE'LL WIN BECAUSE THIS OTHER
GUY IS SO BAD.
IF SHE WERE RUNNING AGAINST
ALMOST ANYONE ELSE, BUT MAYBE
NOT TED CRUZ, BUT IF MARCO RUBIO
WERE THE NOMINEE, SHE WOULD BE
DEAD AND DONE RIGHT NOW.
THIS WOULD BE MARCO IS WALKING
INTO IT WITHOUT ANY QUESTION.
THE NATION KRAIFZ CHANGE AND
SOMETHING NEW, AND THAT'S NOT
HILLARY CLINTON, AND DONALD
TRUMP IS NOT PALETABLE TO
ENOUGH PEOPLE TO BE THE KIND OF
CHANGE.
I DON'T THINK HE IS CHANGE
EITHER.
I STILL THINK THIS IS A BIG
HOAX.
HE HAD A CONVERSATION WITH BILL
CLINTON.
THEN HE ANNOUNCED HE IS RUNNING
FOR PRESIDENT.
THEN HE DOES EVERYTHING HE COULD
DO TO POSSIBLY SABOTAGE HIS OWN
NOMINATION.
PROBABLY NOT COUNTING ON THE
FACT THAT PEOPLE WERE SO FED UP
WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT AND HE
WAS -- THEY WERE -- SO MANY BETA
MALES LOOKING FOR THE ALPHA MALE
TO LATCH ON TO THAT HE BECAME
THE POPULAR GUY AND WON THE
NOMINATION.
NOMINATION.
NOW THAT HE HAS RUN THE
NOMINATION, HE CAN'T RUN THE
SAME KIND OF CAMPAIGN AND WIN,
BUT HE REFUSES TO PIVOT AND RUN
A REAL CAMPAIGN.
HE IS NOT A SENATOR.
HE IS NOT RUNNING A REAL
CAMPAIGN.
>> THIS IS NOT A HOAX.
I MEAN, THIS IS -- WE'RE RUNNING
FOR PRESIDENT HERE, CORRECT?
>> I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN GO SO
FAR AS TO CALL IT A HOAX, BUT I
WILL SAY -- I THINK THIS IS
CERTAINLY THE FIRST CAMPAIGN IN
MY LIFETIME AND MAYBE THE LAST
TIME ANY OF US WILL SEE IT IN
ANY OF OUR LIFETIMES WHERE A
MAJOR POLITICAL PARTY FIELDED A
NOMINEE WHO IS NOT RUNNING AN
ACTUAL CAMPAIGN.
HE IS NOT ON AIR.
HE DOESN'T HAVE ANY CAMPAIGN --
HE HAS NO ADS ON AIR.
HILLARY CLINTON IS WINNING 9-1
IN AIR TIME.
HE DOESN'T HAVE FIELD OFFICES.
THERE'S NO GROUND GAME.
WE HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE
IT.
THERE IS PART OF ME THAT WONDERS
THIS CAN'T BE REAL.
THIS CAN'T BE SERIOUS.
>> HE IS A CELEBRITY
BILLIONAIRE, SO THAT BEING SAID,
IS THIS PART OF MAYBE JUST HIS
IDEA THAT HE HAS A NEED FOR
POWER, THE DESIRE TO LEAD?
>> I THINK IF YOU HAVE WATCHED
HIS SHOW, HE LIKES BEING IN
CONTROL.
IT WAS A GREAT IDEA, AND HE SAID
I'M GOING TO BECOME PRESIDENT OF
THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
EVERYBODY WILL THINK I'M THIS
GREAT PERSON.
YET, WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO THE
PRACTICALITY OF IT AND HE HAS
ACTUALLY TO DO THE WORK ON IT,
HE DOESN'T WANT TO ENGAGE IN THE
POLICY DISCUSSION, HE DOESN'T
WANT TO BE -- TO HAVE THE
PROFESSIONAL SIDE OF BEING THE
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
TO DEAL WITH.
HE JUST WANTS ALL THE GLORY, AND
THAT REALLY COMES OFF NOW THAT
WE ACTUALLY HAVE TO ENGAGE IN
THE POLICY DISCUSSION, AND IT
CAN'T JUST BE THE HEADLINES THAT
ARE SELLING HIM.
HE DOESN'T WANT TO DO THAT.
HE DOESN'T WANT TO ENGAGE IN
THAT POLICY DISCUSSION.
I THINK AMERICA, WHAT WE'RE
SEEING HERE, IS WE REALLY DO
NEED THAT.
WE CAN'T HAVE SOMEBODY THAT
THROWS UP THE HEADLINE OR THE
ONE-LINER.
WE NEED SOMEBODY TO ENGAGE IN
THAT DISCUSSION, AND FRANKLY, HE
IS NOT IT.
>> HE IS RICH.
HE PICKED THE WRONG CAN THE TO
RUN FOR PRESIDENT.
THIS ISN'T THE KIND OF PLACE
WITH A GUY LIKE HIS
PERSONALITY -- HE WANTS TO BE A
DICTATOR.
HE IS IN THE WRONG PLACE.
>>> MORE WITH THOSE THREE IN
JUST A FEW MINUTES.
MOVING NOW TO POLITICAL POLLS.
HOW ACCURATE ARE THE DATA, AND
WHAT DO SURVEYS TELL US ABOUT
THE ELECTIONS?
HERE'S MIKE NOBLE, A POLLSTER
WITH OH PREDICTIVE INSIGHTS IN
PHOENIX.
>> WHAT WE DO IS FIGURE OUT NOT
ONLY WHAT THE PUBLIC IS
THINKING, BUT ALSO WHERE WE
THINK THEY'RE GOING TO GO ON THE
ISSUES, AND IT'S VERY
INTERESTING WITH POLLING THAT I
THINK WE GET A BAD RAP SOMETIMES
BECAUSE, YOU KNOW -- BECAUSE
TECHNICALLY ANYONE COULD REALLY
POLL OR BE A POLLSTER.
THE TRICK IS FIGURING OUT WHO IS
LIKELY TO TURN OUT TO VOTE.
ESPECIALLY IN PRIMARY ELECTRICS
THAT ARE A PRIME EXAMPLE.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS OF
PRIMARY ELECTIONS HERE IN
ARIZONA, THE NUMBERS REALLY
DON'T CHANGE FROM PRESIDENTIAL
YEARS TO MIDTERM YEARS.
IT'S REALLY THE SAME FOLKS
COMING OUT TO VOTE.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT WE HAVE, LET'S
SAY, ONE MILLION RESIDENTS HERE,
RIGHT, AND THEN OF THOSE 50% OR
SO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE.
YOU HAVE THESE FOLKS THAT ARE
ACTUALLY GOING TO COME OUT AND
VOTE, BUT IN A PRIMARY, YOU HAVE
DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS,
INDEPENDENTS.
NOW IT'S EVEN DOWN TO A SMALLER
SLIVER.
HOW DO WE FIGURE OUT BASED ON,
YOU KNOW, WHAT WE THINK THE
TURNOUT IS GOING TO BE AND THE
FOLKS THAT ARE LIKELY TO VOTE.
WHERE THOSE FOLKS ARE GOING TO
FALL.
>> HOW DO YOU COLLECT THIS DATA?
IS IT OVER THE PHONE?
>> WELL, YOU COLLECT IT OVER THE
PHONE, BUT YOU GO BASED ON THEIR
VOTER HISTORY.
AS SOMEONE WERE TO -- IF I KNEW
YOU VOTED FOUR OUT OF THE LAST
FOUR ELECTIONS, ABOUT 95% CHANCE
YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO BE
VOTING AGAIN, RIGHT?
OR LET'S SAY YOU'RE VOTED OUT OF
THE LAST THREE ON TO FOUR,
THERE'S AN 85% CHANCE OF VOTING.
AS YOU GO FARTHER DOWN THE LINE,
IF YOU NEVER VOTED IN ELECTIONS,
WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT YOU
POSSIBLY ARE GOING TO BE COMING
OUT TO VOTE NOW?
THAT'S WHY I THINK YOU SEE THE
ISSUES IN POLLING IS WHEN THEY
JUST SAID THEY SAMPLED
REGISTERED VOTERS.
IT'S GREAT YOU'RE A REBELLING
REGISTERED VOTER, BUT ARE YOU
REGISTERED VOTER, BUT ARE YOU
GOING TO BE VOTING IN THIS
ELECTION?
YOU ALSO ASK IN THE BEGINNING.
WE KNOW THEIR HISTORY, BUT THEN
WE VERIFY THAT AND SAY HOW
LIKELY ARE YOU TO VOTE IN THIS
UPCOMING ELECTION, AND UNLESS
YOU'RE VERY LIKELY OR LIKELY, I
DON'T THINK YOU SHOULD PROBABLY
BE TAKING THIS SURVEY, IN MY
OPINION.
>> SOME OF THE POLLS HAVE BEEN
OFF WHEN IT COMES TO HOW DONALD
TRUMP IS DOING, HOW HILLARY
CLINTON IS DOING.
THAT LEAVES THE AMERICAN VOTER
TO QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT THESE
POLLS ARE GOING WE SHOULD EVEN
BE TALKING ABOUT.
>> CORRECT.
I THINK YOU HEAR FROM DIFFERENT
ANGLES.
I THINK THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS
SAYING THESE POLLS ARE WRONG.
IT MAY BE, BUT OVERALL THERE
DEFINITELY IS A SCIENCE TO
MODERATE ESH DAY POLLING, AND,
YEAH, SOME FOLKS ARE GOING TO BE
WRONG, AND THAT'S WHY IT REALLY
COMES DOWN TO THE POLLSTER AND
METHODOLOGY.
I THINK IF YOU KNOW IN A CERTAIN
DISTRICT THAT THERE'S A HEAVY
HISPANIC POPULATION, YOU KNOW,
THEY'RE MOTIVATED TO VOTE, YOU
WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT'S
REPRESENTATIVE IN YOUR SAMPLE.
IF YOU DON'T SAMPLE ANY OF THOSE
HISPANICS, YOU'RE GOING TO BE
OFF BECAUSE HAVE YOU TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT BECAUSE EACH
DISTRICT, EACH ELECTION HAS ITS
OWN DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC.
IT'S VERY INTERESTING TO SEE,
YOU KNOW, WHY -- I SAW ONE POLL.
I THINK THE FOLKS WERE OFF BY 80
POINTS.
ALSO, YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THAT,
OKAY, HAVE THEY BEEN PAID?
I HAVE YET TO SEE A POLL
RELEASED WHERE IT WASN'T GOOD
FOR THEIR CLIENT IF THEY WEREN'T
PAID BY THEM.
YOU WANT TO LOOK FOR FOLKS THAT
DON'T HAVE A DOG IN THE FIGHT
BECAUSE THEY'RE TRULY LOOKING AT
THE RACE COMPARED TO SOMEONE
THAT SAYS I'LL PAY X AMOUNT OF
DOLLARS TO DO A POLL.
YOU KNOW, THE CHANCES -- YOU CAN
PUSH SOMEONE ANY WAY YOU WOULD
LIKE, AND IT'S JUST HOW DO YOU
DO IN AN UNBIASSED MANNER, I
GUESS.
THAT'S REALLY THE TRICK.
I THINK THAT'S THE THING YOU
HAVE TO LOOK AT.
IS THERE PERSONAL INTEREST
INVOLVED?
I THINK THAT COULD BE -- THAT'S
WHERE YOU MIGHT SEE SOME OF THE
ISSUES.
>> ONE THING WE HEAR IS TWO WHO
HAS TIME FOR POLLS?
WHO ALREADY ARE THESE PEOPLE
YOU'RE CALLING?
>> THAT IS THE OTHER CHALLENGE
THAT WE'VE BEEN FIND AND THAT
WE'VE BEEN HAVING TO ADAPT.
THE OLDER GENERATION IS MORE
USED TO IT.
ALSO, THE YOUNGER GENERATION IS
NOT AND ALSO WITH THE CONVERSION
OF HOW FOLKS GET THEIR
INFORMATION.
BEFORE EVERYONE HAD A LAND LINE.
NOW IT'S VERY FEW.
IT'S TOUGH TO FIND ANYBODY
UNDER, I WOULD SAY, 30 THAT HAS
A LAND LINE.
YOU KNOW, YOU ARE SEEING MORE OF
A MIXTURE OF LEANING TOWARDS
CELL PHONES COMPARED TO
AUTOMATED, AND THEN ALSO ON-LINE
SURVEYS, WHICH ARE STILL WORKING
ON PERFECTING.
YOU'RE SEEING DEFINITELY A TREND
OF THAT.
FOLKS JUST AREN'T AS ENGAGED, I
THINK, IS WHAT THEY PROBABLY
WERE 20, 30 YEARS AGO.
>> ARE YOU TAILORING YOUR PHONE
CALLS AT A CERTAIN TIME BECAUSE
OF PEOPLE'S WORK?
>> YEAH.
TYPICALLY I WOULD SAY WE USUALLY
WOULD GO IN THE EVENING.
YOU TYPICALLY STAY AWAY FROM
FRIDAY NIGHTS, THOUGH.
YOU TYPICALLY -- YOU ALWAYS SEE
LOWER RESPONSE TIMES ON
WEEKENDS.
PEOPLE ARE OUT AND ABOUT.
THEY COULD BE RUNNING ERRANDS,
DON'T HAVE TIME.
USUALLY EVENING HOURS IS BEST.
POLLSTERS, YEAH, THEY GET A BAD
RAP, BUT IT'S BEING ABLE TO
FIGURE OUT, ONE, DO THEY -- IS
THERE A MOTIVATION BEHIND IT?
I HAVE YET -- ONE DAY -- I'LL
GIVE YOU A PRIME EXAMPLE.
I RELEASED A POLL IN ARIZONA'S
FIFTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
HERE, AND, YOU KNOW, THERE'S
FOUR FOLKS IN THE RACE.
WELL, ONLY ONE CAN BE NUMBER ONE
IN THAT POLL, RIGHT?
THE THREE THAT WEREN'T NUMBER
ONE IN THE POLL ALL SAID MY
NUMBERS ARE BAD, THE POLL IS
INACCURATE.
YOU KNOW, IT'S A BAD POLL.
POKING HOLES IN IT.
THEN, YOU KNOW, A MONTH LATER I
POLL, AND THEN THE PERSON THAT
WAS IN LAST IS ALL OF A SUDDEN
IN FIRST, AND ALL OF A SUDDEN
THEY DIDN'T HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH
THE NUMBERS.
IT'S INTERESTING THAT I HAVE YET
TO SEE THE DAY WHEN I RELEASE A
POLL THAT IS BAD FOR SOMEONE AND
THEY SAY, HEY, THAT GUY WAS
RIGHT ON OR THAT WAS A GREAT
POLL.
VICE VERSA.
IT'S JUST -- I THINK IT'S THE
NATURE OF POLITICS THAT YOU'LL
GET A LOT OF FOLKS THAT POKE
HOLES, AND I THINK WHAT YOU HAVE
TO BASE IT ON IS THAT YOUR
REPUTATION AND RECORD.
I THINK FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARY, I WAS THE CLOSEST IN
ARIZONA OUT OF EVERYONE, AND ONE
FOR ONE ON PRESIDENTIAL
PRIMARIES RIGHT NOW.
>>> GOING BACK NOW TO OUR
CONVERSATION WITH THREE OF
ARIZONA'S TOP POLITICAL
STRATEGISTS.
MATT AND JASON FROM VERITUS LLC
AND SEAN NOBLE FROM AXIOM PUBLIC
AFFAIRS.
THESE NOMINEES, THEY SAY, ARE
CHALLENGING EACH PARTY.
>> THERE'S A WIDE ARRAY OF
CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS, PEOPLE
WHO WOULD COUNT THEMSELVES AS
CONSERVATIVES FIRST AND
REPUBLICANS SECOND.
THEY SAY, LOOK, THIS GUY WILL
DESTROY WHAT WE'VE SPENT A
LIFETIME TRYING TO BUILD AND
PROTECT, AND THAT IS THE
CONSERVATIVE PHILOSOPHY ABOUT
THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT.
HE IS THE OPPOSITE OF THAT IN
ALMOST EVERY WAY.
IF HE GETS ELECTED, THAT'S GOING
TO COMPLETELY RESHAPE WHAT THE
CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT IN THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY LOOKS LIKE.
I THINK IF HE LOSES, WHICH HE
LIKELY WILL, THERE IS A CHANCE
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WILL SAY,
OKAY, WAIT A MINUTE.
WE DID THE LITTLE EXPERIMENT.
IT CLEARLY DOESN'T WORK.
LET'S GET BACK TO NORMAL AND TRY
TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IT IS THAT WE
NEED TO DO SO THAT WE CAN MOUNT
A CANDIDATE AGAINST AN INCUMBENT
HILLARY CLINTON IN 2020 AND TAKE
BACK THE PRESIDENCY.
>> MATT, WHO IS THE BEST
CANDIDATE FOR ARIZONA WHEN IT
COMES TO THE ECONOMY, EDUCATION,
CROSS-BORDER RELATIONS?
WHO IS THE BEST CANDIDATE?
>> AMONG THOSE RUNNING FOR
PRESIDENT?
>> WOW.
OKAY.
>> GARY JOHNSON.
I MEAN, HE SAY LIBERTARIAN.
GARY JOHNSON WAS THE GOVERNOR OF
NEW MEXICO, UNDERSTANDS OUR PART
OF THE WORLD.
HIS RUNNING MATE, BILL WELLS, HE
WAS A VERY SUCCESSFUL GOVERNOR
IN MASSACHUSETTS.
BOTH REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS.
NOW THEY'RE RUNNING IN THE
LIBERTARIAN TICKETS.
FRANKLY, THEY ARE BY FAR, BY FAR
MORE SUPERIOR IN THE KIND OF
GOVERNMENT THAT THEY WOULD RUN
AND WHAT THEY WOULD DO FOR THE
COUNTRY THAN EITHER THE CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION OR TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION.
THEY HAVE NO HOPE OF WINNING.
>> YEAH.
THEY ARE SERIOUS CANDIDATES.
UNFORTUNATELY, IF THEY CAN'T HIT
THE 15% THRESHOLD, THEY CAN'T
EVEN GET ON THE STAGE FOR THE
DEBATES, WHICH ARE, YOU KNOW,
WHEN MOST AMERICANS ARE TUNING
IN.
YEAH, IT'S A SAD PLACE TO BE FOR
THOSE OF US WHO, YOU KNOW, ARE
RIGHT OR CENTER RIGHT.
>> I THINK IT'S A LITTLE BIT
CONCERNING OR AT LEAST I WOULD
BE CONCERNED FROM THE REPUBLICAN
STANDPOINT IN THAT, ONE, THE
CANDIDATE WHO DID -- DOES HAVE
OUR PARTY'S NOMINATION, ONE,
THEY STAND UP ON THE STAGE AT
THEIR CONVENTION, AND, TWO,
THERE'S ANOTHER POLITICAL PARTY
OUT THERE THAT SEEMS TO BE MORE
IN LINE WITH WHAT WE FEEL ARE
OUR IDEALS, AND I THINK THERE'S
SOMETHING TELLING THAT THERE'S
BEEN A DISCONNECT IN KIND OF
FROM THE TOP -- FROM THE
TREETOPS TO THE GRASSROOTS IN
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AND THAT
IS HOW YOU ENDED UP WITH TRUMP
COMING UP TO POWER AND GAINING
THAT NOMINATION.
>> I THINK -- I MEAN, I HAVE --
I KNOW THAT IT'S A STANDARD
TALKING POINT WITH THE
DEMOCRATS, NO OFFENSE, BUT THAT
YOU GUYS CREATED TRUMP.
HE IS YOUR -- I BELIEVE IT WAS
OBAMA THAT CREATED TRUMP.
OBAMA CAME INTO OFFICE AND
IMMEDIATELY DECIDED HE HAD A
DEMOCRATIC SENATE AND DEMOCRATIC
HOUSE.
HE IMMEDIATELY DECIDED HE WAS
GOING TO DO THINGS VERY
DIFFERENTLY THAN PREVIOUS
PRESIDENTS WHERE, WHEN REAGAN
HAD A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE AND
SENATE, HE WORKED CLOSELY WITH
TIP O'NEIL TO BROKER COMPROMISE
AND GET THINGS DONE.
OBAMA DECIDED HE WAS GOING TO
CRAM THROUGH A STIMULUS PACKAGE,
HE WAS GOING TO CRAM THROUGH
HEALTH CARE REFORM, AND HE DID
THOSE THINGS WITHOUT ANY
REPUBLICAN SUPPORT.
I MEAN, HE DECIDED HE WAS NOT
GOING TO SIT DOWN AND NEGOTIATE.
HE WAS GOING TO DO IT HIS WAY
AND NO OTHER WAY, AND IT COST
THE DEMOCRATS THE MAJORITY, AND
THE HOUSE AND SENATE IN -- OR
THE HOUSE IN 2010 AND SO HE HAS
CREATED AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE
EVERYONE FEELS LIKE NOTHING IS
GETTING DONE.
THIS HOSTILE NATURE.
I THINK IN MANY WAYS OBAMA IN
2009-2010 WAS THE BEGINNING OF
WHAT BECAME THE PHENOMENON OF
TRUMP'S SUPPORT.
>> THE OTHER THING THAT WAS
CREATED IS THE RISE OF THE -- I
WOULDN'T EVEN CALL IT
CONSERVATIVE MEDIA.
I WOULD -- IT'S THE FRINGE.
IT'S THE SEAN HANNITY, RUSH
LIMBAUGH.
IT'S THE ENTERTAINMENT WING OF
THE CONSERVATIVE MEDIA WHICH HAS
CREATED AN ENTIRE GENERATION OF
VOTERS WHO BELIEVE THAT
CONSERVATIVES IN CONGRESS ARE
ALL SELL-OUTS, WHO BELIEVE THAT
IT DOESN'T MATTER THAT A
DEMOCRAT IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE.
THEY SHOULD SOMEHOW FORCE HIM TO
SIGN LEGISLATION UNDOING HIS
LANDMARK ACHIEVEMENT WITH OBAMA
CARE.
>> NOT ONLY THAT.
THEY BOTH BELIEVE THEY SHOULD
FORCE HIM TO DO IT, BUT THEY
DON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND IT.
YOU CAN'T EVEN GET THE BILL TO
HIM BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE 60
VOTES IN THE SENATE.
THEY'RE NOT SMART ENOUGH -- THIS
IS WHERE I FAULT TED CRUZ WHO
NEVER MADE THE POINT, WELL, WE
CAN'T GET IT THROUGH THE SENATE
BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE 60 VOTES.
PEOPLE JUST SAY, WOW, YOU HAVE
55 REPUBLICAN SENATORS.
WHY DON'T YOU REPEAL OBAMA CARE?
THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND THE
PROCESS.
IT IS -- THE RUSH LIMBAUGHS AND
THE SEAN HANNITY'S OF THE WORLD
HAVE CREATED A SITUATION WHERE
WE TAKE PEOPLE WHO AREN'T AS
KNOWLEDGEABLE ABOUT THE PUBLIC
POLICY PROCESS AND FEED THEM
STUFF THAT SETS EXPECTATION THAT
IS ARE COMPLETELY UNATTAINABLE
BECAUSE THAT'S NOT THE WAY THE
PROCESS WORKS.
>> WHICH IS, AS YOU SAID, MAYBE
WHAT HAPPENED EIGHT YEARS AGO.
>> I JUST WANTED TO ADDRESS
THAT.
I DON'T THINK IT'S NECESSARILY
OBAMA.
I WOULDN'T PUT EVERYTHING IN HIS
COURT THAT HAS CREATED THIS
SITUATION, BUT WHAT HAS
OCCURRED, AND I THINK IT'S ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE, IS A
DUMBING DOWN OF THE AMERICAN
POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HOW IT
WORKS AND HOW WE ADDRESS IT.
THE MERE FACT THAT WHEN
SOMETHING BAD HAPPENS OR IT'S
SOMETHING WE DON'T AGREE WITH
THAT'S PROPOSED, RATHER THAN
ENGAGE IN A POLICY DISCUSSION,
WE KIND OF THROW BOMBS OUT THERE
AND LIKE TO YELL AND SCREAM AT
EACH OTHER, AND THAT HAS CREATED
A SITUATION WHERE AMERICA AND
AMERICANS AREN'T ENGAGING OR
EDUCATING OURSELVES IN THE
ISSUES THAT OUR COUNTRY HAS TO
FACE EVERY DAY.
>> WHAT DOES IT SAY, THOUGH,
THAT ALL THESE THINGS HAVE BEEN
HAPPENING, AND DONALD TRUMP HAS
BEEN VERY POPULAR WITH THE
AMERICAN PUBLIC?
AS WE HEARD --
>> I DON'T THINK HE HAS BEEN
VERY POPULAR AMONG THE AMERICAN
PUBLIC.
HE HAS BEEN POPULAR AMONG JUST
OVER HALF THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
VOTERS.
EVEN POLLING NOW, HE IS NOT
POPULAR.
HE IS THE LEAST POPULAR
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE I THINK
WE'VE SEEN IN A LONG, LONG TIME.
>> AND THE ONLY ONE THAT COMES
CLOSE TO HIM IN UNPOPULARITY IS
HILLARY CLINTON.
IF SHE WINS -- IF EITHER OF THEM
WIN, WHICHEVER ONE WINS GOES
INTO THE WHITE HOUSE WITH THE
LOWEST FAVORABLE RATING IN THE
HISTORY OF OUR NATION AS A
PRESIDENT WALKING INTO THE OVAL
OFFICE ON DAY ONE.
>> WHAT HAPPENS IN NOVEMBER?
>> HILLARY CLINTON WINS, AND SHE
WINS BY A WIDE MARGIN.
I MEAN, THE POLLING THAT WE'RE
SEEING JUST OUT TODAY SHOWS
SHE'S UP 15 POINTS IN VIRGINIA.
SHE'S UP DOUBLE DIGITS IN
PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN,
COLORADO.
THE ONLY SO-CALLED SWING STATES
THAT ARE REALLY TRULY CLOSE AT
THIS POINT ARE FLORIDA AND OHIO.
SHE IS PUSHING, YOU KNOW --
>> AND IOWA.
>> SHE'S PUSHLING IN THE STATES
LIKE ARIZONA, UTAH, GEORGIA.
THE NUMBERS -- THE TREND LINE,
IT'S STILL EARLY.
I MEAN, WE'RE ALMOST THREE
MONTHS OUT, BUT THE NUMBERS ARE
LOOKING TREMENDOUSLY BAD FOR
DONALD TRUMP.
>> THE HARD PART FOR THE HILLARY
CAMPAIGN RIGHT NOW IS GOING TO
BE KEEPING VOTERS ENGAGED AND
KEEPING THIS STILL A STORY
BECAUSE COME NOVEMBER THEY'RE
GOING TO HAVE -- RUN THE PROBLEM
WITH PEOPLE NOT CARING ANYMORE,
AND THEY'RE STILL GOING TO BE
NEEDING PEOPLE TO SHOW UP AND
VOTE.
IF THEY DON'T HAVE THOSE PEOPLE
TO SHOW UP AND VOTE AFTER THREE
MONTHS OF HEARING HILLARY IS
GOING TO WIN, THAT'S GOING TO BE
A PROBLEM.
THEY NEED TO BE ABLE TO KEEP
THOSE VOTERS ENGAGED AND WILLING
TO TURN OUT IN NOVEMBER.
>> I THINK HILLARY WINS.
I THINK WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
LONG-TERM IS PEOPLE ARE GOING TO
BE SO DISGUSTED BY THIS ELECTION
CYCLE THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING PARTICIPATION
RATES IN FUTURE ELECTIONS
ANYWHERE CLOSE TO WHERE WE'VE
BEEN HISTORICALLY.
I THINK WE ARE TURNING PEOPLE
OFF IN DROVES, AND, YOU KNOW,
IT'S GOING TO BE BAD FOR
DEMOCRACY, BAD FOR OUR SYSTEM,
AND IT'S GOING TO TAKE A DECADE
OR MORE TO FIX.
>> DONALD TRUMP IS AT THE TOP OF
THE REPUBLICAN TICKET IN
ARIZONA.
HOW DOES THAT SHAKE OUT
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE RACES
WE HAVE IN ARIZONA?
>> WELL, ONE, IT DOESN'T LOOK
GOOD.
I MEAN, THERE'S A TRUMP EFFECT.
IS THAT GOING TO TURN OFF THE
REPUBLICAN VOTERS, AND IF THEY
DON'T SHOW UP TO VOTE FOR
PRESIDENT, THAT'S GOING TO HAVE
A SEVERE IMPACT ON THE BALLOT.
THE LAST ELECTION CYCLE IN 2014
WE HAD A REPUBLICAN THAT WON BY
LESS THAN 1,000 VOTERS IN SOME
LEGISLATIVE VOTERS AND A
CONGRESSWOMAN THAT WON BY LESS
THAN 200 VOTERS.
ANY DECREASE IN THE TURNOUT, THE
REPUBLICANS COULD FEEL A LARGE
IMPACT.
HOWEVER, YOU HAVE TO BALANCE
THAT AGAINST THE UNPOPULAR
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE THAT NOT A
LOT OF DEMOCRATS MIGHT SHOW UP
TO VOTE FOR.
YOU KNOW, I WOULD AGREE THAT
WE'RE JUST GO GOING TO HAVE A
LOW TURNOUT, AND WHAT THAT MEANS
AND HOW THAT AFFECTS IT, I CAN'T
TELL AT THIS POINT.
I THINK THERE'S A DANGER, BUT
I'M NOT SEEING IT.
IF WE HAVE THAT HISTORIC
HISPANIC TURNOUT AND THE YOUTH
SHOW UP, YEAH, THERE WILL BE A
CHANGE.
>> THERE GOES --
>> AND THE INDEPENDENTS TOO,
RIGHT?
>> I MEAN, SENATOR McCAIN IS
GOING TO WIN RE-ELECTION PRETTY
HANDILY.
HIS RACE IS VERY INDICATIVE OF
OTHER SENATE RACES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY.
THEY'RE OUT-POLLING TRUMP.
THEY'RE GOING TO DO BETTER THAN
TRUMP.
IF TRUMP COLLAPSES, THEY'RE
STILL GOING TO WIN.
REPUBLICANS HOLD THE MAJORITY,
YOU KNOW.
McCAIN WINS.
I THINK AYOTTE WINS IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
PORTLAND WINS IN IT OHIO.
RUBIO WINS IN FLORIDA.
THE ONLY ONE THAT I WOULD SAY --
THE TWO THAT ARE MOST AT RISK
NATIONALLY IN THE SENATE ARE
MARK KIRKLAND IN ILLINOIS AND
RON JOHNSON IN WISCONSIN.
EVEN RON JOHNSON HAS A CHANCE TO
PULL THIS OFF.
IT'S GOING TO BE -- YOU KNOW,
TRUMP WILL NOT HAVE THE DRAG
EFFECT THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO PINE FOR.
REPUBLICANS WILL HOPE.
>> WE ALL KNOW THAT DONALD TRUMP
HATES MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE TO
BE A LOSER, AND HE HAS ALREADY
BEEN FLOATING THIS NOTION THAT
IF I LOSE, IT'S BECAUSE IT WAS
RIGGED.
THIS IS A RIGGED GAME.
THE ELECTION IS -- THE FIX IS
IN.
IF HE SEES THE -- IF WE GET
CLOSER TO ELECTION DAY --
REMEMBER, WE START VOTING HERE
IN EARLY OCTOBER IN ARIZONA AND
IN OTHER STATES.
IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THE
THING IS OUT OF REACH, I WOULD
BE CONCERNED -- I AM CONCERNED
THAT HE DISSPIRITS REPUBLICAN
VOTERS AND EVEN HIS OWN PEOPLE
AND THE BASE TO A POINT THAT
THEY DON'T TURN OUT, AND HE
WOULD DO IT TO TRY TO SAVE FACE
THAT THIS ELECTION THAT IS
RIGGED AND WHAT NOT, NOT CARING.
THAT IT'S GOING TO DAMAGE
REPUBLICANS ALL UP AND DOWN THE
TICKET IF THOSE VOTERS DON'T
TURN OUT.
LET'S FACE IT, DONALD TRUMP
DOESN'T CARE ABOUT ANYBODY OTHER
THAN DONALD TRUMP.
>> I AGREE WITH THAT.
I DON'T AGREE THAT IT WILL HAVE
IMPACT THAT MUCH BECAUSE I THINK
REPUBLICAN BASE VOTERS --
REPUBLICAN VOTERS ARE STILL
GOING TO GO VOTE FOR THEIR DOWN
BALLOT PEOPLE.
THEY MAY HEAR WHAT HE SAYS, BUT
I THINK -- I MEAN, THE TYPICAL
VOTER IS GOING TO LOOK AT THAT
AND SAY, ARE YOU FREAKING
KIDDING?
THEY WILL SAY THIS HAS BEEN A
HOAX.
THEY'RE GOING TO GO OUT AND SAY
A REPUBLICAN VOTER AT THAT POINT
WILL SAY, WELL, WE'VE GOT TO
HAVE A CHECK ON HILLARY, SO I
HAVE TO VOTE FOR THE REPUBLICAN
HOUSE MEMBER AND THE REPUBLICAN
SENATE.
>> COME 2020 DOES THIS
DIVISION --
>> DEMOCRATS WILL BE STUCK WITH
CLINTON AND, YOU KNOW, IS SHE
GOING TO BE A ONE-TERM
PRESIDENT?
MAYBE.
>> THAT WILL BE DETERMINED BY AS
SOON AS SHE STEPS INTO THE WHITE
HOUSE WHAT SHE'S DOING AND HOW
THE PUBLIC RECEIVES THAT.
SHE'S GOING TO HAVE -- SHE'S GOT
THREE MONTHS NOW AND THEN
POTENTIALLY FOUR YEARS TO START
CHANGING THE PERCEPTION OF HER
AND WORKING ON HER FAVORABILITY
RATING, AND WE'VE SEEN SWINGS IN
THAT.
SHE DOES HAVE WORK TO DO.
>> THAT CONCLUDES OUR PROGRAM.
PRIMARIES ARE TUESDAY, AUGUST
30th.
ELECTION RESULTS CAN BE FOUND ON
OUR WEBSITE THAT NIGHT AND INTO
THE NEXT DAY ON NPR 89.1.
PLUS, AN ANALYSIS ON NEXT WEEK'S
PROGRAM.
FOR ALL OF US AT ARIZONA PUBLIC
MEDIA, I'M ELAINE.