.
>>> THE 2018 ELECTION CYCLE
HEATING UP.
>> THIS GOING TO BE A HUGE
POLITICAL RACE, MILLIONS AND
MILLIONS OF OUTSIDE DOLLARS
BEING SPENT.
>> AN OPEN SENATE SEAT CREATES A
DOMINO EFFECT ON OTHER RACES.
>> YOU'LL HAVE SO MANY OF THEM
VACANTING THEIR SEATS
POTENTIALLY.
>> A STATE REPRESENTATIVE FACING
SERIOUS ALLEGATIONS.
>> HELLO, THANK YOU FOR JOINING
US.
ARIZONA'S OPEN SENATE SEAT
GENERATING EXCITEMENT AND
OPENING CONVERSATIONS ABOUT THE
FUTURE OF ARIZONA'S POLITICAL
LANDSCAPE, A COMPREHENSIVE
ANALYSIS FROM POLITICAL
STRATEGIST IN PHOENIX, DREW SEX
TON SERVED AS A PUBLIC AFFAIRS
AND COMMUNICATIONS SPECIALIST
AND NOW REPRESENTS HIGH GROUND
PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND JASON BARASA
FOR THE PARTY, BOTH STRATEGISTS
DEGREE ARIZONA IS IN A UNIQUE
SPOT, 12 MEN, MAJORITY
REPUBLICAN REPRESENTED ARIZONA
IN THE U.S. SENATE AND MARTHA
McSALLY SAID SHE'LL BE IN THE
RACE.
WE BEGIN WITH DREW SEXTON.
>> ANY CANDIDATE THAT WINS THE
NOMINATION FOR THE SENATE SEAT
AS A REPUBLICAN THEY'LL HAVE A
BIG ADVANTAGE BUT OBVIOUSLY
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ARE
GOING ON A NATIONAL LEVEL.
PRESIDENT TRUMP ALREADY HAD AN
EFFECT IN TURNOUTS IN PLACES
LIKE VIRGINIA AND NEW JERSEY.
REPUBLICANS WILL NEED TO MAKE
SURE THEY NOMINATE A SOLID
CANDIDATE NOT NECESSARILY ON THE
FRINGE OF WHAT WE WOULD SAY THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY IS.
THEY NEED TO HAVE A CREDIBLE
CANDIDATE THAT CAN BUILD A
WINNING GENERAL ELECTION
COALITION.
>> JASON, DO DEMOCRATS SEE THIS
AS THE PERFECT OPPORTUNITY?
>> I THINK THEY DO.
YOU'RE DEALING WITH A FRACTURED
REPUBLICAN PARTY AND STARTING TO
TRICKLE ITS WAY DOWN, IT'S GOING
TO PRODUCE VERY INTERESTING
RESULTS AND COULD BE THE
OPPORTUNITY THE DEMOCRATS NEED
IN THIS PARTICULAR RACE.
>> FRACTURE, THAT SOUNDS LIKE A
TOUGH WORD TO USE BUT MIGHT BE
PRETTY ACCURATE.
>> THERE'S DEFINITELY BEEN A
SHIFT IDEOLOGUALLY IN WHAT THE
PRIORITIES ARE.
WE'VE GONE FROM A PARTY THAT'S
TYPICALLY BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH
THINGS LIKE FREE TRADE TO WHERE
WE'RE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT JUST
SOMEBODY A CANDIDATE THAT WILL
FIGHT FOR OUR BELIEFS, NOT
NECESSARILY BE OR HAVE
IDEALOGICAL PURITY.
I THINK THERE'S GOING TO
OBVIOUSLY BE A TOUGH REPUBLICAN
FIGHT IN THE SENATE, WHETHER
IT'S WITH FORMER STATE SENATOR
KELLY WARD IN SPECULATIVELY
CONGRESSMAN MARTHA McSALLY AND
JAY HOOILER WHO HAS THE BACKING
OF GOVERNOR BREWER, IT WILL BE A
TOUGH, NASTY PRIMARY BUT WE'VE
SEEN TRADITIONALLY THAT
REPUBLICANS HAVE HAD TOUGH
PRIMARIES BUT IT'S HELPED
CANDIDATES IN THE LONG RUN AND
MADE THEM BATTLE TESTED AND FINE
TUNE MESSAGING AND STILL HAVE A
LOT OF SUCCESS IN GENERAL
ELECTIONS.
>> JASON, WE HEAR CONGRESSWOMAN
DOING VERY WELL.
HOW LIKELY IS SHE TO LEAD THE
RACE?
>> HER CHALLENGE IS KEEPING HER
NAME OUT THERE AND STAYING
RELEVANT.
WITHOUT THE PRIMARY THAT BECOMES
A DIFFICULT THING TO DO WHICH
ALWAYS TENDS TO BENEFIT THOSE
CANDIDATES THAT HAVE THE
PRIMARY.
THEY ARE THE ONES BEING COVERED
IN THE MEDIA AND HAVING THEIR
TALKING POINTS COVERED.
IN THIS RACE IT ALL COMES DOWN
TO TRUMP AND HOW MUCH YOU'RE
GOING TO BE ASSOCIATED OR
UNASSOCIATED WITH HIM COMING OUT
OF THAT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY.
SO FOR HER AND IN THIS CASE, ALL
GOING TO BE ALL ABOUT TRYING TO
PORTRAY THE EVENTUAL CANDIDATE
THAT COMES OUT AS A TRUMPITE,
SOMEBODY ON THAT FRINGE AND
ISN'T THE MAINSTREAM CANDIDATE.
>> ARIZONA HAS LONG BEEN A
CONSERVATIVE STATE.
IS DONALD TRUMP REPUBLICAN,
KELLY WARD REPUBLICAN, A
REPUBLICAN STATE OR IS THIS A
NEW BREED OF CONSERVATIVES?
>> IN OUR SURVEY RESEARCH AT
HIGH GROUND WE PUT OUT A POLL IN
MID AUGUST AND FOUND THREE OF
FOUR LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
VOTERS STILL SUPPORT PRESIDENT
TRUMP.
HE DOES HAVE IMPORTANCE.
HIS ENDORSEMENT WILL BE A BIG
DEAL WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY.
WHETHER THAT IMPACTS THE GENERAL
ELECTION IN A POSITIVE LIGHT, I
THINK THAT'S STILL UP FOR
QUESTION.
I THINK ONE OF THE INTERESTING
DYNAMICS OF A POTENTIAL McSALLY
CINEMA RACE, WE'VE SEEN
REPUBLICANS THAT WIN THE
NOMINATION WHETHER IT'S FOR
GOVERNOR OR SENATE, TYPICALLY
THEY COME FROM MARICOPA COUNTY
AND PIMA IS BEEN A STRONG HOLD.
McSALLY REPRESENTS A BIG PART OF
TUCSON.
SHE'S GOING TO BE ABLE TO HANG
TOUGH IN PIMA AND THAT MAKES FOR
AN INTERESTING DYNAMIC WITH
CONGRESSWOMAN CINEMA, HER BASE
IS TEMPE AND CHANDLEER.
THAT WILL BE AN INTERESTING
THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF
SHE'LL BE ABLE TO TAKE HER
MESSAGE TO RURAL COUNTIES LIKE
MOJAVE AND YUMA.
>> WHO DO WE SEE JUMP IN THAT
RACE?
>> WE HAVE A COUPLE OF
CANDIDATES CIRCLING THEIR NAMES
OUT THERE.
MATT HINES, HE HAS NAME I.D.
LOCALLY AND ANN KIRK PATRICK, IT
COULD BE A VERY POTENT ADVERSARY
FOR ANY REPUBLICANS TO STEP
FORWARD IN THAT RACE.
>> CD 2 HAS BEEN WATCHED FROM A
NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE, WHAT IS IT
THAT'S SO FASCINATING?
JASON, WE'LL START WITH YOU.
>> WHEN YOU GO TO THE VERY BASE
SICKS, LOOKING AT REGISTRATION,
IT'S ONE OF THOSE DISTRICTS THAT
IS CLOSE IN REGISTRATION FOR
EITHER SIDE TO MAKE A PLAY FOR
IT JUST BASED ON SOLID
REGISTRATION NUMBERS.
BUT THEN YOU BRING IN OUTSIDE
FACTORS WHERE YOU HAVE A
MILITARY BASE TENDS TO PLAY
TOWARDS MORE REPUBLICAN
CANDIDATES AND VERY STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESENCE DOWN IN
SOUTHERN ARIZONA, WHICH TENDS TO
GO TOWARDS MORE A DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE.
IF YOU'RE DEALING WITH A
DISTRICT THAT HAS ISSUES THAT
ARE IMPORTANT OR PRESENCE THERE
FOR ITS CONSTITUENTS THAT CAN
PLAY TO EITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE
AND VERY CLOSE REGISTRATION
BASE.
IT MAKES IT APPEALING TO EITHER
SIDE.
>> I THINK IT'S KIND OF A
FASCINATING DISTRICT.
IT WAS ONE OF ONLY 23 DISTRICTS
IN THE COUNTRY THAT VOTED FOR
SECRETARY CLINTON, BUT ALSO
REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL
CANDIDATE.
IN THIS INSTANCE, McSALLY.
I THINK THE DYNAMIC OF HAVING A
LARGE CHUNK OF THAT URBAN TUCSON
COMMUNITY BUT ALSO THAT
STRETCHES ALL THE WAY TO THE
BORDER, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE ERA
VISTA, IT IS A VERY UNIQUE
DYNAMIC IN TERMS OF THAT MIX OF
URBAN AND RURAL.
ANY CANDIDATES THAT RUNS IN CD 2
WILL HAVE TO FIND THE RIGHT MIX
BETWEEN REPRESENTING THOSE IN
URBAN COMMUNITIES AND THOSE IN
RURAL BECAUSE AS WE SEE
ELECTORAL RESULTS, THAT'S
BECOMING THE BIGGEST DIVIDE AND
INDICATOR OF PARTISAN VOTER,
WHETHER YOU LIVE IN AN URBAN
COMMUNITY OR RURAL COMMUNITY.
I THINK THAT'S WHAT MAKE CD2
UNIQUE, ONE OF THE FEW DISTRICTS
THAT BRINGS BOTH OF THOSE
FACTORS TOGETHER.
>> ARE THESE DEMOCRATS THAT
CONNECTED THEMSELVES TO THE
HILLARY CLINTON CAMP THAT WE SAW
MORE THAN A YEAR AGO?
ARE DEMOCRATS LIKELY TO SEE
FRACTURING WHAT THEIR PARTY ONCE
WAS?
>> TALK ABOUT FRACTURING IN THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY, I DON'T THINK
DEMOCRATS HAVE COME ACROSS WHO
THEY ARE AND DEFINED THEMSELVES
EITHER.
THAT'S SOMETHING WE NEED TO SEE
IN THE NEXT YEAR OR SO DEVELOP
OUT OF DEMOCRATS DEFINING WHO
THEY ARE AND COMING FORWARD WITH
THEIR MESSAGE.
IF THEY DON'T DO THAT, THEY
WON'T BE ABLE TO TAKE A BENEFIT
OFF OF THE OPPORTUNITIES
PRESENTED.
>> TWO PARTIES IDENTIFYING
THEMSELVES IN A STATE THAT HAS
LONG BEEN A CONSERVATIVE PLACE,
DOES THAT MEAN WE ARE THE PURPLE
THAT JASON THINKS HE WANTS US TO
BE.
>> BOTH ARE LOOKING IN THE
MIRROR AND SAYING WHO ARE WE?
WHAT DO WE WANT TO BE?
WHAT VALUE DO WE REPRESENT.
ARE WE COMMITTED TO IDEALOGICAL
PURSUITS, COMMITTED TO GETTING
THINGS DONE OR MOSTLY JUST
COMMITTED TO ANGERING THE OTHER
SIDE?
I THINK WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF THAT
ON THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
IT'S NOT NECESSARILY GETTING
THINGS DONE, IT'S MOSTLY BEING
AGAINST THINGS.
ANY CANDIDATE THAT MANAGES TO
GET YOU A GENERAL ELECTION, THEY
HAVE THEIR -- THEY HAVE AN
ADVANTAGE BUT I THINK THEY NEED
TO BE ABLE TO PAINT A PICTURE OF
GETTING THINGS DONE AND BEING
ABLE TO STAND UP AND FIGHT FOR
ARIZONA, NOT NECESSARILY ONE
PARTY OR THE OTHER BUT BEING
ABLE TO PUSH FOR POLICIES LIKE
DEFENDING AIR FORCE BASE, MAKING
SURE WE'RE STAYING SAFE AND
FINDING A SOLUTION TO
IMMIGRATION.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE'VE
BEEN TALKING ABOUT AS A STATE
SINCE 2006.
THERE STILL HAS NOT BEEN A
SOLUTION TO IMMIGRATION REFORM
HERE.
SO THAT'S REALLY I THINK
ULTIMATELY WHAT REPUBLICANS IF
THEY WANT TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN
THIS CYCLE IN MOVING FORWARD FOR
THE NEXT DECADE, THEY NEED TO BE
ABLE TO SHOW SOME RESULTS.
>> WHAT OUGHT THE DEMOCRATS BE
DOING?
>> A LOT OF THE SAME THING.
I'VE SAID THAT STOP ATTACKING
YOUR OPPONENTS BECAUSE NOBODY
WANTS A NEGATIVE MESSAGE.
CANDIDATES THAT SEEM TO BE
SUCCESSFUL, TIME AND TIME AGAIN,
ARE THOSE THAT CAN PORTRAY A
POSITIVE VISION FOR WHAT THE
FUTURE HOLDS.
PEOPLE WANT TO BE ABLE TO FOLLOW
SOMEBODY FORWARD.
IF YOU DON'T DO THAT, YOU'RE NOT
GOING TO BE ABLE TO GAIN THE
SUPPORT THAT YOU NEED AND PEOPLE
WILL OFTEN FOLLOW STATUS QUO AND
GO BACK TO WHAT THEY KNOW AND
MANY TIMES IN ARIZONA THAT MEANS
THAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE IS
GOING TO BE SUCCESSFUL.
>> AS WE LOOK INTO THE NEXT
ELECTION CYCLE, WHERE DOES
ARIZONA FIT ON A NATIONAL MAP
WHEN IT COMES TO POLITICS.
>> SPECIFICALLY ON SENATE SIDE
YOU HAVE REPUBLICANS HOLDING
ONLY A TWO SEAT ADVANTAGE.
THE MAP AS A WHOLE NATIONALLY
BUT MOSTLY DEMOCRATS ARE GOING
TO BE DEFENDING.
THEY ARE ABOUT 23 DEMOCRATS UP
FOR RE-ELECTION, ONLY EIGHT
REPUBLICANS LOOKING FOR TO BE
RE-ELECTED.
BUT WE'VE ALREADY SEEN SENATOR
FLAKE STEPPED AWAY.
THIS IS AN OPEN SEAT.
THE DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO
CLOSE THAT MARGIN IN THE SENATE.
THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE
POLITICAL RACE.
YOU'RE GOING TO SEE MILLIONS AND
MILLIONS OF OUTSIDE DOLLARS
BEING SPENT BY DARK MONEY
GROUPS, BY CANDIDATE PACS,
THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF
MONEY AND ATTENTION ON THIS
RACE.
DO THEY WANT TO MAKE THIS A
DIVISIVE NASTY RACE WHERE WE SO
THAT DEVOLVE WHEN YOU GET A RACE
AT THE BOTTOM OR PRESENT A
VISION FOR NOT ONLY THEIR PARTY
BUT THE STATE WHERE THEY CAN
LEAD AND SAY I'M GOING TO GO TO
THE SENATE AND I'M GOING TO
REPRESENT ARIZONA, I'M GOING TO
FIGHT FOR US ON IMMIGRATION
REFORM AND FIGHT ON DEFENDING
OUR MILITARY BASES AND FIGHT TO
MAKE SURE THE MIDDLE CLASS
AMERICANS GET TAX REFORM DONE
AND PAY LESS IN TAXES.
I THINK REALLY THAT'S GOING TO
BE THE KEY FOR REPUBLICANS.
>> JASON?
>> IT'S GOING TO BE A THIGH
HIGH
DOLLAR SPENDING AND MORE
COMMERCIALS AND MAILERS THAN ANY
TIME IN RECENT HISTORY.
I THINK IT'S GOING TO GET
NEGATIVE QUICKLY.
WITHOUT CANDIDATES BEING ABLE TO
CONTROL WHAT MESSAGES ARE BEING
PUT OUT THERE, THEY'LL COME
SWINGING AS MUCH MUD AS THEY
CAN.
WE'LL SEE HOW THE ELECTORATE
DEALS WITH THAT AND HOW THEY
REACT.
>> WE'VE HAD 11 OR 12 MEN TAKE
STATE SENATE RACES AND FOUR
WOMEN AS GOVERNOR.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
ARIZONANS SPECIFICALLY HAVE
ALWAYS TAKEN GREAT PRIDE IN THE
INDEPENDENT SPIRIT, THAT DATES
BACK TO BARRY GOLDWATER AND JOHN
McCAIN AND JAN BREWER, SOMEBODY
THAT WILL STICK UP AND FIGHT FOR
THOSE OR THEY HAVEN'T BEEN
FOUGHT FOR AND ESPECIALLY THOSE
WILLING TO BUCK THE
ESTABLISHMENT, BUCK TRADITIONAL
PARTY BELIEFS.
I THINK THAT ARIZONA AGAIN HAS
AN OPPORTUNITY TO BE IN THE
CENTER OF THE NATIONAL
SPOTLIGHT.
RIGHT NOW IT'S LIKELY WE'LL HAVE
TWO FEMALE CANDIDATES.
I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE A
LOT -- THAT WILL BE A HUGE
IMPACT FOR LETTING FUTURE
ARIZONANS KNOW ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE IN THE STATE.
>> ARIZONA HAS ALWAYS BEEN AHEAD
OF ITS TIMES WHEN YOU LOOK BACK
TO STARTING WITH THE INITIATIVE
AND REFERENDUM PROCESS WE
ADOPTED AND WE'VE ALWAYS BEEN
LOOKING FOR NEW WAYS OR NEW
THINGS TO BE ABLE TO CONDUCT
GOVERNMENT HERE IN ARIZONA.
WE'VE BEEN OPEN TO DIFFERENT
IDEALS.
HAVING A TIME WHERE YOU'VE HAD
FOUR EXECUTIVES BE WOMEN,
RECENTLY AND THERE HAS BEEN IN
RECENT HISTORY FIVE OF THE TOP
STATEWIDE OFFICES HAVE BEEN HELD
BY WOMEN AT THE SAME TIME.
THAT'S A RARITY AND SOMETHING
THAT PEOPLE DON'T NECESSARILY
CONNECT WITH ARIZONA BUT ARIZONA
IS UNIQUE.
WE ARE SPECIAL AND I THINK -- I
AGREE THAT I THINK WE'LL LOOK AT
TWO FEMALE CANDIDATES RUNNING
FOR SENATE HERE AND IT WILL BE A
HISTORICAL ELECTION FOR THAT
FACT.
>> THAT PROGRESSIVENESS IS WHAT
DEMOCRATS SAY WILL SHINE IN
2018.
THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE
ARIZONA DEMOCRATIC PARTY
PREDICTS ARIZONA'S POLITICAL
LANDSCAPE IS ABOUT TO CHANGE.
>> IT IS DEFINITELY AN EXCITING
TIME TO BE A DEMOCRAT IN
ARIZONA.
WE'VE HAD SINCE THE ELECTION OUR
PARTICIPATION HAS BEEN THROUGH
THE ROOF.
I MEAN, WE'VE COUNTY MEETINGS,
STANDING ROOM ONLY, USED TO HAVE
10 OR 15, NOW HAVE 40 AND 40 OR
50 NOW HAVE 300.
IT'S BEEN IMPRESSIVE AND
EXCITING TO SEE THE
PARTICIPATION ON OUR SIDE AND
PEOPLE THAT WANT TO BE ENGAGED
AND PEOPLE THAT HAVE BEEN
ENGAGED AND ALSO THE PEOPLE THAT
WERE NOT NECESSARILY ENGAGED
PREVIOUSLY WHO REALIZE THAT THEY
HAVE TO BE AND THERE'S NO LONGER
AN OPTION FOR THEM TO SIT ON THE
SIDELINES AND HOPE THINGS WORK
OUT LIKE THEY EXPECT THEM TOO.
HAVING DONALD TRUMP ELECTED
SHOOK PEOPLE TO THE CORE.
>> HISTORICALLY ARIZONA HAS BEEN
A REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLD.
IS THAT A TRUE STATEMENT TO YOU
REPRESENTING THE DEMOCRATIC
PARTY?
>> YES, IN A LOT OF WAYS, WE
OBVIOUSLY HAVE WON HERE.
REPUBLICANS ARE IN CONTROL
CURRENTLY, HAVE BEEN RECENTLY
AND I THINK IN A LOT OF WAYS
THEY'VE DONE A BAD JOB WHEN IT
COMES TO EDUCATION, WE'RE AT THE
COMES TO EDUCATION, WE'RE AT THE
BOTTOM OF THE COUNTRY AND
QUALITY OF LIFE.
THESE ARE THINGS THAT THE
REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATION
WHETHER IT'S JUST FOCUSING ON
TAX CUTS OR WHATEVER IT IS,
THEY'VE -- IT'S BECOME A CULTURE
OF CORRUPTION AND THE REST OF
THE REPUBLICANS IN OFFICE HERE
AND WE NEED TO MAKE CHANGES.
DEMOCRATS CAN DO BETTER.
WE KNOW IT.
WE JUST NEED TO PROVE IT TO THE
VOTERS.
WE CAN BE DO BETTER ONCE WE GET
ELECTED.
WE JUST NEED TO GET ELECTED TO
SHOW IT.
>> AN OPEN SEAT COMING UP, WE
ALREADY KNOW OF ONE VERY WELL
KNOWN CONGRESSWOMAN WHO WILL
THROW HER NAME IN THE HAT.
ARIZONA THOUGH HAS ALWAYS HAD
REPUBLICAN MEN LEAD ARIZONA
SENATE.
WHAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN THIS
TIME AROUND?
>> I THINK WE'RE GOING TO WIN
THE SENATE SEAT.
I MEAN, BECAUSE OF THAT HGT CARE
VOTE AND WHAT'S GOING ON IN
WASHINGTON, REPUBLICANS ARE
FOCUSED ON THE WRONG THINGS,
THINGS NOT IMPORTANT TO PEOPLE
IN ARIZONA.
THEY WANT TO TAKE AWAY HEALTH
CARE FROM 400,000 PEOPLE AND
PASS THE TAX CUT PROBABLY THIS
WEEK OR TAX REFORM THIS WEEK
THAT WILL HARM MIDDLE CLASS
FAMILIES AND THAT'S NOT WHY
PEOPLE SEND REPRESENTATIVES TO
WASHINGTON.
THERE'S A REPUBLICAN CIVIL WAR
GOING ON AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL
AND IT'S HAPPENING HERE.
STEVE BANNON VERSUS MITCH
McCONNELL WINGS OF THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY.
THAT'S THE REASON JEFF FLAKE HAD
TO GET OUT OF THE RACE.
HE JUST SAW THERE WAS NOT A PATH
FOR HIM TO BE VICTORIOUS IN THIS
REPUBLICAN CULTURE.
>> BEEN A FEW YEARS SINCE A
DEMOCRAT HAD SECOND
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
YOU LIKELY SEE IT PERHAPS
RETURNING TO A DEMOCRAT.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
>> WE HAVE REALLY STRONG
CANDIDATES, WE HAVE A VERY
VIBRANT PRIMARY.
THAT'S A GOOD THING.
WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF
PEOPLE PAYING ATTENTION TO
WHAT'S GOING ON THERE AND
WHOEVER REPLACES MARTHA McSALLY
ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, ASSUMING
SHE IS GOING TO DO WHAT SHE TOLD
HER FRIENDS IN WASHINGTON, RUN
FOR SENATE, IT'S A CLOWN CAR OF
CANDIDATES THERE.
THERE'S NOBODY THERE THAT IS
REALLY GOING TO SPEAK FOR THE
VOTERS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
>> DEMOCRATS LOST THE WHITE
HOUSE.
DOES THAT MEAN THE PARTY IS ALSO
LOOKING TO REIDENTIFY ITSELF OR
COME TOGETHER?
>> IN A LOT OF WAYS YES.
WE ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL FOR
SURE, WE'RE -- WHAT WE IN
ARIZONA WERE ABLE TO DO, WE DID
NOT WIN OBVIOUSLY BUT GOT WITHIN
THREE POINTS OF WINNING ARIZONA
FOR HILLARY CLINTON OVER DONALD
TRUMP AND WE'VE WORKED PRETTY
WELL WITH OUR DIFFERENT WINGS OF
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
I KNOW THAT'S BEEN A STORY
NATIONALLY IN SOME OF THOSE
FIGHTS.
DEMOCRATS FROM THE DNC ON DOWN
ARE WORKING TO COME TOGETHER
BECAUSE THERE'S SO MUCH AT RISK
HERE THAT WE CAN'T HAVE
INTERPARTY SQUABBLES.
>> TELL ME ABOUT THE VALUES THAT
THE DEMOCRATS HOLD SO DEARLY.
HOW DO YOU DESCRIBE A DEMOCRAT
IN ARIZONA TODAY?
>> BASICALLY WE CARE ABOUT
TODAY.
WE WANT TO HELP PEOPLE.
WE WANT TO HAVE A GOVERNMENT
THAT WILL TAKE CARE OF OUR MOST
VULNERABLE.
OBVIOUSLY WE CARE ABOUT OUR
NATIONAL SECURITY AND THINGS
THAT EVERYBODY CARES ABOUT BUT
WE REALLY FEEL LIKE IT'S THE
GOVERNMENT'S JOB TO MAKE SURE
THAT OUR MOST VULNERABLE IN
SOCIETY ARE NOT LEVEL BEHIND.
>> ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
AISLE, REPUBLICANS SAY ARIZONA
IS A CONSERVATIVE STRONGHOLD AND
IT WILL STAY THAT WAY COME NEXT
NOVEMBER.
HERE'S TORE RENS SINCLAIR OF THE
ARIZONA REPUBLICAN PARTY.
>> TELL ME WHERE THE PARTY IS
WHEN WE'RE LOOKING TO THE NEXT
CYCLE.
>> THE PARTY IS IN A GREAT
PLACE, LOOK AT VOTER
REGISTRATION NUMBERS,
INCREASING.
RIGHT NOW WE'RE BEATING
DEMOCRATS 55-1 MARGIN IN VOTER
REGISTRATION.
SINCE JANUARY YOU'VE SEEN US
REGISTER A LITTLE OVER ALMOST
9,000 VOTERS, WE'VE REGISTERED
8,792 COMPARED TO THE DEMOCRATS
161.
THEY'VE NETTED 161 NEW VOTER
REGISTRATIONS SINCE JANUARY.
>> WHAT DO YOU ATTRIBUTE THAT,
PRESIDENT TRUMP?
>> IT'S THE MOMENTUM.
YOU EE THE MOMENTUM FROM THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY, DONE ADD TRUMP
IS WELL LIKED ARIZONA AND SEE
PEOPLE WANTING A CHANGE.
THEY SEE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AS
BEING THE CATALYST FOR THAT
CHANGE.
>> JEFF FLAKE HAS ANNOUNCED THAT
HE'S FINISHED WITH THE SENATE.
NOW WE HEAR THAT CONGRESSWOMAN
MARTHA McSALLY MAY BE INTERESTED
IN THAT SPOT.
I THINK IT CREATES A DOMINO
SITUATION.
WAS IN LINE FOR REPUBLICANS HERE
IN ARIZONA?
>> SO, I MEAN, REPRESENTATIVE
McSALLY HASN'T ANNOUNCED YET SO
WE'RE NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ON
THAT.
YOU LOOK AT CD 2 AND MARTHA
McSALLY AND CD2, LOOK AT THE
LAST ELECTION IN 2016 AND SHE
WON THAT ELECTION BY 14 POINTS.
YOU ALSO SAW THAT JOHN McCAIN
BEAT ANN KIRKPATRICK AS WELL
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS
AND ANN KIRKPATRICK IS CURRENTLY
RUNNING FOR CONGRESS IN THAT
DISTRICT.
I THINK NO MATTER WHAT
REPUBLICAN RUNS IN A CD2 RACE,
YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THAT PERSON
WIN.
>> ALWAYS HAD REPUBLICAN MEN
SERVE IN THE SENATE TO REPRESENT
ARIZONA.
IS THAT LIKELY TO CONTINUE?
>> YOU KNOW, I THINK RIGHT NOW
THERE'S A LOT OF FEMALES IN THE
RACE.
NO MATTER -- DOESN'T MATTER IF
YOU'RE REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT,
THAT'S REALLY EXCITING.
I WOULD BET YOU SEE A FEMALE IN
THE SENATE IN 2018.
>> YOU SAID THE REPUBLICANS HAVE
MOMENTUM.
WHAT DOES THE PARTY NEED TO DO
TO KEEP THAT MOMENTUM AS -- THIS
STARTS THE ELECTION CYCLE PRETTY
EARLY.
>> WE'RE DOING WHAT WE ALWAYS
DO.
WE'RE GOING TO REGISTER VOTERS
AND TURN PEOPLE OUT AND KEEP
TALKING TO NEW REPUBLICANS.
THAT'S WHAT YOU SEE US DO AND
WHAT YOU SEE US DO UNTIL THERE
IS A GOP NOMINEE IN 2018.
>> YOU'LL SEE US REALLY START TO
ENGAGE WITH THOSE CANDIDATES IN
AUGUST OF 2018.
>> HEARD A LOT OF POLITICAL
PUNDITS SAY THERE'S FRACTURING
IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
DO YOU SEE THAT HERE IN ARIZONA?
>> I THINK YOU LOOK AT OUR
STATEWIDE ELECTIONS AND YOU GO
BACK TO AT LEAST 2010, DEMOCRATS
IN ARIZONA HAVEN'T HELD A
STATEWIDE OFFICE SINCE 20 -- I
BELIEVE 2010.
AND YOU LOOK AT THAT AND YOU
LOOK AT THE REALLY TOUGH GOP
PRIMARIES THAT WE HAVE AND I
THINK YOU KNOW, YOU CAN
ATTRIBUTE OUR TOUGH GOP
PRIMARIES TO US WINNING IN THE
GENERALS.
YOU LOOK AT 2010 AND JAN BREWER
HAD A PRIMARY CHALLENGE AND LOOK
AT 2012 AND OPEN SENATE SEAT AND
JEFF FLAKE WON IN A GENERAL.
AND 2014 AND 2014 HAD A PRETTY
TOUGH GOVERNOR'S RACE.
INCUMBENT GOVERNOR JAN BREWER
ENDORSED IN THE PRIMARY AND DID
NOT SEE A TOUGH DEMOCRAT PRIMARY
ON THAT SIDE AND WE WON IN THE
GENERAL.
YOU LOOK AT THAT FOR SECRETARY
OF STATE AND FOR ATTORNEY
GENERAL, YOU LOOK AT THAT FOR
THE TREASURER'S RACE AS WELL.
WE ALWAYS WIN.
YOU SEE THAT IN 2016 AS WELL.
I THINK THAT WE'RE GOING TO TURN
OUT AND GOING TO TURN OUT OUR
PEOPLE AND TURN OUT REPUBLICANS
AND IT DOESN'T MATTER IF IT'S A
TOUGH PRIMARY RACE IN 2018,
YOU'LL SEE US WIN.
>> TELL ME ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY.
SENATOR FLAKE HIMSELF SAID THAT
I CAN'T CONTINUE THIS WAY WITH
THIS PRESIDENT.
SO WHAT DO REPUBLICANS STAND
FOR?
>> YOU KNOW, I CAN'T REALLY
SPEAK TO SENATOR FLAKE AND
HIS -- THE WAY HE VIEWS HIS
CAMPAIGN MOVING FORWARD BUT I
THINK OF COURSE THERE'S ROOM FOR
EVERY SINGLE PERSON THAT
CONSIDERS THEMSELVES A
REPUBLICAN IN THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY.
WE ARE VERY BIG -- OFTEN TIMES
YOU SEE REPUBLICANS THAT DON'T
AGREE WITH EACH OTHER BUT AT
LEAST IN ARIZONA, WE WIN.
>> OTHER NEWS NOW, A NATIONAL
STORY HITTING CLOSE TO HOME.
AN ARIZONA LAWMAKER SUSPENDED
FROM HIS LEADERSHIP POSITION
AFTER MULTIPLE ALLEGATIONS OF
SEXUAL HARASSMENT,
REPRESENTATIVE DON SHUTER, IS
TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED FROM
POSITION OF CHAIRMAN OF THE
HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE,
THE COMMITTEE THAT DRAFTS THE
BUDGET.
THE EDITOR AND PUBLISHER OF THE
ARIZONA CAPITAL TIMES NOW WITH
MORE ON THE POSSIBLE POLITICAL
FALLOUT.
>> THAT MEANS THAT THE HOUSE
LEADERSHIP RECOGNIZED THE
GRAVITY OF THE ALLEGATIONS
AGAINST HIM, ACKNOWLEDGED WITH
THOSE TYPE ALLEGATIONS IT WOULD
BE HARD FOR THIS VERY IMPORTANT
COMMITTEE TO DO ITS WORK AND
THAT IT IS BETTER IF DON SHUTER
IS SOMEWHAT -- I WOULDN'T SAY
SEVERED BUT THERE'S DISTANCE
BETWEEN HIM AND THE COMMITTEE.
>> HERE WE ARE IN NOVEMBER.
WHERE DOES THIS TAKE IT COME
JANUARY?
>> YOU'LL HAVE THIS CONVERSATION
MOVING FORWARD.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY YOU'LL
HAVE MORE WOMEN COME OUT AND SAY
THIS HAPPENED TO ME TOO AT THE
STATE CAPITOL.
ALREADY WE HAVE THE HOUSE
REPRESENTATIVES COMING OUT WITH
ITS POLICY HOW TO DEAL WITH
SEXUAL HARASSMENT.
IN THE SENATE HE HAD TO DIG UP A
POLICY COME UP WITH MANY, MANY
YEARS AGO AND NOW THERE ARE
ATTORNEYS THERE IN THE STATE
SENATE LOOKING AT THIS DOCUMENT
AND ASKING DOES IT NEED TO BE
UPDATED.
>> WILL THIS DISTRACT FROM WHAT
NEEDS TO TAKE PLACE COME THE
FIRST PART OF THE YEAR?
>> I WOULDN'T CALL IT A
DISTRACTION.
HE THINK IT'S A VERY IMPORTANT
DISCUSSION TO HAVE.
AND NOW IS A BETTER TIME TO HAVE
THIS DISCUSSION.
BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING THEY
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH AND THEY
HAVE HAVE TO FIND A WAY TO DEAL
WITH THIS AND ADDRESS THIS AND
AT THE SAME TIME DO THEIR
REGULAR RESPONSIBILITIES.
YOU KNOW, REALLY THEY ONLY HAVE
ONE BIG ASSIGNMENT AND THAT IS
TO PRODUCE A BUDGET FOR NEXT
YEAR.
AND AS LONG AS THEY ARE ABLE TO
DO THAT AND I HAVE NO REASON TO
BELIEVE THEY ARE NOT GOING TO BE
ABLE TO DO THAT --
>> REPRESENT SHUTER, LONG
RUNNING IN THE ARIZONA HOUSE,
DOES THIS RUN OF RISK OF
DAMAGING HIS CREDIBILITY AND
DAMAGING CREDIBILITY OF THE
HOUSE.
>> IT DAMAGES HIS CREDIBILITY,
NO DOUBT.
AND NOW HE'S NOT ABLE TO DO HIS
JOB AS A CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE
APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE.
BUT I WANT TO SHIFT IT RATHER
THAN FOCUS ON HOW MUCH DAMAGE IT
HAS TO HIM OR HIS CREDIBILITY OR
HIS POLITICAL CAREER, REALLY THE
CONVERSATION IN MY MIND IS THAT
WE HAVE A CULTURE IN THE STATE
LEGISLATURE THAT WANT TO CALL IT
A GOOD BOYS CLUB CULTURE.
AND NOW WE'RE HAVING TO NOT
NECESSARILY RECONSIDER THAT, BUT
TAKE SERIOUSLY WHERE THAT HAS
BROUGHT US AND WHAT KIND OF
CULTURE OUR CLIMATE CREATED FOR
WOMEN WORKING IN THE STATE
CAPITOL.
WHETHER YOU'RE A LOBBYIST OR
INTERN OR JUST SOMEBODY WHO IS
ADVOCATING FOR YOUR INTEREST.
>> MOVING BEYOND THAT
DISCUSSION, ARIZONA HAS BECOME
IN THE NATIONAL POLITICAL
SPOTLIGHT WITH NEWS OF A SENATOR
VACATING HIS SEAT, QUITE
POSSIBLY A CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT.
WHAT DOES THAT SAY FOR THE NEXT
CYCLE?
>> CANDIDLY WE COULD HAVE TWO
U.S. SENATE SEATS OPEN UP FOR
VACANCIES NEXT YEAR.
IF THAT HAPPENS AND THERE ARE
SOME WHO BELIEVE THAT MIGHT
HAPPEN, IF THAT HAPPENS, WE
ALREADY HAVE ONE SEAT THAT'S
GOING TO BE VACANT, JEFF
FLAKE'S.
WE KNOW SENATOR McCAIN IS
BATTLING CANCER.
IF HE DOES FOR EXAMPLE STEP
DOWN, MANY ARE SAYING THAT YOU
COULD HAVE A STRUCTURAL CHANGE
IN THE POLITICAL SCENE IN
ARIZONA.
YOU COULD HAVE A WHOLE BUNCH OF
CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENTS LOOK AT
EITHER ONE OF THOSE SENATE SEATS
AND IF THEY VACATE THE SEATS,
THE ONE FOR THE U.S. SENATE,
YOU'LL HAVE LAWMAKERS AND
MAYORS, COUNSELORS AND COUNTY
SUPERVISORS LOOKING AT
CONGRESSIONAL RACES AND IF THEY
VACATED THEIR SEATS, THEN
SOMEBODY WOULD HAVE TO FILL
THOSE POSITIONS.
SO YOU COULD BE LOOKING AT
SCHOOL BOARDS.
MAYBE EVEN THE IRRIGATION
DISTRICTS, WHOLE LOT OF PEOPLE
COMING IN AND SO SHOULD THAT
HAPPEN, A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE
SEEING THIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN
THE PEOPLE THAT ARE COMING IN,
YOU KNOW, YOU'LL HAVE SO MANY OF
THEM VACATING THEIR SEATS
POTENTIALLY, THAT YOU'LL HAVE A
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STRUCTURE.
YOU'RE SEEING THAT IN THE CITY
OF PHOENIX, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH
KIRSTEN CINEMA VACATING HER
SEATS, NOW THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
THREE COUNCIL MEMBERS RUNNING
FOR HIS SEAT.
THOSE SEATS HAVE TO COME FROM
SOMEWHERE.
YOU COULD HAVE VACANCIES IN THE
STATE LEGISLATURE OR OPEN SEATS
IN THE STATE LEGISLATURE.
AS ONE LOBBYIST AND CONSULTANT
PUT THE OTHER DAY, YOU'RE NOT
LOOKING AT ONE TSUNAMI, YOU'VE
LOOKING AT FIVE OF THEM.
>> THAT'S OUR SHOW THIS WEEK.
BEFORE WE GO, A QUICK
ANNOUNCEMENT, I'LL BE LEAVING
THE HOST SEAT FOR THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS AS WE RETOOL FOR A NEW
PUBLIC AFFAIRS SHOW THAT WILL
LAUNCH IN JANUARY.
IN THE MEANTIME STAY TUNED FOR
MORE EPISODES IN DECEMBER.