WEBVTT 00:06.740 --> 00:09.040 align:start >>> DELEGATES. 00:09.043 --> 00:10.408 align:start CONTESTED CONVENTION. 00:10.411 --> 00:12.243 align:start HOW IT ALL WORKS. 00:12.246 --> 00:14.012 align:start >> IT WILL BE LIKELY YOU'LL BE 00:14.015 --> 00:15.380 align:start DOWN TO FISTFIGHTED AND HAND TO 00:15.383 --> 00:16.681 align:start HAND COMBAT, BECAUSE THEY'LL BE 00:16.684 --> 00:18.016 align:start SCRAPING FOR EVERY DELEGATE THAT 00:18.019 --> 00:19.784 align:start THEY CAN FIND. 00:19.787 --> 00:20.151 align:start >> AN UNUSUAL PRESIDENTIAL 00:20.154 --> 00:21.185 align:start ELECTION. 00:21.188 --> 00:23.121 align:start WHAT IT MEANS FOR VOTERS. 00:23.124 --> 00:25.223 align:start >> PEOPLE ARE MORE TIRED OF 00:25.226 --> 00:25.556 align:start THEIR OWN PARTY THAN WE'VE SEEN 00:25.559 --> 00:26.424 align:start BEFORE. 00:26.427 --> 00:27.525 align:start THERE'S A LOT OF NEGATIVE 00:27.528 --> 00:27.859 align:start FEELINGS TOWARD THE PARTY 00:27.862 --> 00:28.626 align:start SYSTEM. 00:28.629 --> 00:30.528 align:start PEOPLE WANT SOMETHING DIFFERENT. 00:30.531 --> 00:31.029 align:start >> PLUS A BREAKDOWN OF ARIZONA'S 00:31.032 --> 00:38.136 align:start SPECIAL ELECTION. 00:38.139 --> 00:40.204 align:start THIS IS "ARIZONA WEEK." 00:40.207 --> 00:40.538 align:start >>> HELLO AND THANKS FOR JOINING 00:40.541 --> 00:42.106 align:start US. 00:42.109 --> 00:43.408 align:start THIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IS 00:43.411 --> 00:46.210 align:start SHAPING UP TO BE A UNIQUE ONE, 00:46.213 --> 00:48.079 align:start AND ONE THAT COULD PRESENT SOME 00:48.082 --> 00:49.580 align:start SITUATIONS AMERICAN VOTERS HAVE 00:49.583 --> 00:54.852 align:start NOT SEEN IN DECADES. 00:54.855 --> 00:56.754 align:start FOR MORE I'M JOINED BY A 00:56.757 --> 00:58.489 align:start POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT 00:58.492 --> 01:00.191 align:start THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA. 01:00.194 --> 01:03.361 align:start >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME. 01:03.364 --> 01:05.396 align:start >> PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES, ARE 01:05.399 --> 01:05.763 align:start THEY THAT VALUABLE AND 01:05.766 --> 01:06.431 align:start IMPORTANT? 01:06.434 --> 01:07.865 align:start WHAT DO THEY TELL US? 01:07.868 --> 01:10.101 align:start >> THEY TELL US WHO IS POPULAR 01:10.104 --> 01:11.102 align:start IN THE STATE AND IT WILL 01:11.105 --> 01:12.937 align:start EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW 01:12.940 --> 01:14.038 align:start DELEGATES WILL VOTE ONCE THEY 01:14.041 --> 01:16.274 align:start GET TO THE CONVENTION. 01:16.277 --> 01:18.543 align:start >> AND DELEGATES VERSUS SUPER 01:18.546 --> 01:18.876 align:start DELEGATES, HOW POWERFUL ARE THEY 01:18.879 --> 01:23.481 align:start REALLY? 01:23.484 --> 01:25.783 align:start >> DELEGATES, GENERALLY WE'RE 01:25.786 --> 01:28.152 align:start TALKING ABOUT PLEDGED DELEGATES, 01:28.155 --> 01:30.788 align:start CHOSEN AS A RESULT OF A CAUCUS. 01:30.791 --> 01:31.823 align:start THEY GENERALLY HAVE TO SUPPORT 01:31.826 --> 01:35.093 align:start THE CANDIDATE THEY'RE TIED TO, 01:35.096 --> 01:37.528 align:start AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST VOTE IN 01:37.531 --> 01:38.896 align:start THE CONVENTION. 01:38.899 --> 01:40.932 align:start DELEGATES WERE CREATED IN THE 01:40.935 --> 01:43.735 align:start 1980s TO GIVE A VOICE TO THE 01:43.738 --> 01:46.004 align:start PARTY LEADERS, THE STATE PARTY 01:46.007 --> 01:47.705 align:start CHAIRS, AND ELECTED OFFICIALS. 01:47.708 --> 01:50.174 align:start AND THEY REPRESENT A LITTLE LESS 01:50.177 --> 01:50.541 align:start THAN 20% OF THE DEMOCRATIC 01:50.544 --> 01:53.077 align:start DELEGATES. 01:53.080 --> 01:53.945 align:start AND THEY'RE FREE TO VOTE FOR 01:53.948 --> 01:56.047 align:start WHOEVER THEY WANT. 01:56.050 --> 01:57.682 align:start >> ARE THESE REAL MOVERS OR 01:57.685 --> 01:59.984 align:start SHAKERS WITHIN THE PARTY OR JUST 01:59.987 --> 02:00.618 align:start PEOPLE WHO HAPPEN TO HAVE BEEN 02:00.621 --> 02:02.253 align:start CHOSEN? 02:02.256 --> 02:04.355 align:start >> I GUESS YOU COULD CALL THEM 02:04.358 --> 02:05.256 align:start MOVERS AND SHAKERS. 02:05.259 --> 02:06.057 align:start THEY'RE MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE OF 02:06.060 --> 02:06.424 align:start REPRESENTATIVES, SENATORS, 02:06.427 --> 02:07.825 align:start GOVERNORS. 02:07.828 --> 02:09.761 align:start THEY'RE THE TOP PARTY PEOPLE IN 02:09.764 --> 02:10.561 align:start THE STATE. 02:10.564 --> 02:12.196 align:start >> OKAY. 02:12.199 --> 02:13.064 align:start WHY DO SOME STATES HAVE CAUCUSES 02:13.067 --> 02:15.633 align:start AND OTHERS DO NOT? 02:15.636 --> 02:20.605 align:start >> IT'S UP TO THE STATES TO 02:20.608 --> 02:25.143 align:start CHOOSE WHO THEY WANT. 02:25.146 --> 02:25.510 align:start THERE'S 15 STATES WHO USUALLY DO 02:25.513 --> 02:27.111 align:start CAUCUSES. 02:27.114 --> 02:28.646 align:start THEY'RE USUALLY SMALLER STATES. 02:28.649 --> 02:30.048 align:start THE PEOPLE WHO SUPPORT CAUCUSES, 02:30.051 --> 02:30.381 align:start THEY SAY IT'S A GRASSROOTS 02:30.384 --> 02:31.516 align:start EFFORT. 02:31.519 --> 02:32.784 align:start PEOPLE COME OUT TO THEIR 02:32.787 --> 02:34.318 align:start COMMUNITY MEETING, THEY GET TO 02:34.321 --> 02:36.154 align:start TALK TO THEIR NEIGHBORS, THEY 02:36.157 --> 02:36.821 align:start GET TO, YOU KNOW, BE 02:36.824 --> 02:38.222 align:start ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE 02:38.225 --> 02:38.856 align:start PARTICIPATION AND SHOW THEIR 02:38.859 --> 02:40.525 align:start SUPPORT. 02:40.528 --> 02:42.760 align:start BUT IT'S ALSO A COMPLEX PROCESS, 02:42.763 --> 02:43.061 align:start BECAUSE IT'S JUST THE FIRST 02:43.064 --> 02:44.329 align:start STEP. 02:44.332 --> 02:48.099 align:start THE PEOPLE WHO ARE SELECTED AT 02:48.102 --> 02:49.734 align:start THE CAUCUS LEVEL THEN GO TO A 02:49.737 --> 02:50.902 align:start COUNTY CONVENTION OR A 02:50.905 --> 02:53.371 align:start CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 02:53.374 --> 02:54.972 align:start CONVENTION WHERE THE DELEGATES 02:54.975 --> 02:55.306 align:start FOR THE NATIONAL CONVENTION ARE 02:55.309 --> 02:56.674 align:start CHOSEN. 02:56.677 --> 02:58.309 align:start THERE'S ALSO A STATE CONVENTION 02:58.312 --> 02:59.577 align:start WHERE SOME MORE OF THE NATIONAL 02:59.580 --> 03:01.045 align:start DELEGATES ARE CHOSEN. 03:01.048 --> 03:02.647 align:start IT'S A COMPLEX PROCESS THAT 03:02.650 --> 03:03.014 align:start PLAYS OUT OVER SEVERAL MONTHS, 03:03.017 --> 03:04.816 align:start SOMETIMES. 03:04.819 --> 03:05.450 align:start >> WE'RE HEARING A LOT ABOUT A 03:05.453 --> 03:06.517 align:start CONTESTED CONVENTION, THE 03:06.520 --> 03:08.953 align:start POSSIBILITY OF ONE ON THE 03:08.956 --> 03:10.822 align:start REPUBLICAN SIDE OF THINGS. 03:10.825 --> 03:12.190 align:start HAVE WE SEEN THAT, HAVE AMERICAN 03:12.193 --> 03:12.490 align:start VOTERS SEEN THAT BEFORE IN THE 03:12.493 --> 03:13.825 align:start PAST? 03:13.828 --> 03:14.692 align:start >> NOT SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE 03:14.695 --> 03:16.461 align:start 20th CENTURY. 03:16.464 --> 03:17.996 align:start SO THE LAST TIME A REPUBLICAN 03:17.999 --> 03:20.531 align:start CONVENTION WENT TO MORE THAN ONE 03:20.534 --> 03:22.767 align:start BALLOT WAS IN 1948. 03:22.770 --> 03:23.735 align:start DEMOCRATS IN 1952 HAD MORE THAN 03:23.738 --> 03:25.136 align:start ONE BALLOT. 03:25.139 --> 03:26.537 align:start >> WHAT DOES THAT REALLY MEAN? 03:26.540 --> 03:27.905 align:start THAT THE ESTABLISHMENT DIDN'T 03:27.908 --> 03:30.375 align:start GET WHO THEY WANTED? 03:30.378 --> 03:32.910 align:start >> NOT IN THOSE CASES. 03:32.913 --> 03:33.811 align:start SO, YOU KNOW, DURING THAT TIME 03:33.814 --> 03:34.545 align:start THERE WASN'T VERY MANY 03:34.548 --> 03:35.947 align:start PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES. 03:35.950 --> 03:38.483 align:start MANY OF THE CONVENTION DELEGATES 03:38.486 --> 03:39.484 align:start WENT TO THE CONVENTION WITHOUT 03:39.487 --> 03:44.555 align:start ANY STATED PARTICULAR LOYALTIES. 03:44.558 --> 03:45.590 align:start SO IT WAS A MUCH DIFFERENT ERA. 03:45.593 --> 03:46.824 align:start MANY TIMES CANDIDATES DIDN'T 03:46.827 --> 03:47.658 align:start EVEN RUN IN PRIMARIES DURING 03:47.661 --> 03:49.694 align:start THAT TIME PERIOD. 03:49.697 --> 03:52.397 align:start AND SOMETIMES THERE WERE SOME 03:52.400 --> 03:55.133 align:start STATE PARTY BOSSES STILL AROUND 03:55.136 --> 03:58.703 align:start WHO COULD NEGOTIATE SUPPORT. 03:58.706 --> 04:01.105 align:start SO THEY WERE VERY TRADITIONAL 04:01.108 --> 04:02.440 align:start CANDIDATES WHO WERE RUNNING. 04:02.443 --> 04:03.741 align:start YOU DON'T HAVE THAT TODAY, IN 04:03.744 --> 04:04.909 align:start TERMS OF THE DELEGATES ARE 04:04.912 --> 04:06.177 align:start COMMITTEE ARE A CANDIDATE, AT 04:06.180 --> 04:08.980 align:start LEAST ON THE FIRST ROUND. 04:08.983 --> 04:10.348 align:start >> IN THE CASE OF THE REPUBLICAN 04:10.351 --> 04:11.683 align:start PARTY, THAT'S WHERE WE'RE 04:11.686 --> 04:13.418 align:start HEARING THE CONTESTED CONVENTION 04:13.421 --> 04:15.186 align:start MAY BE, DELEGATES ARE COMING IN 04:15.189 --> 04:16.187 align:start EXPECTED TO VOTE A CERTAIN WAY, 04:16.190 --> 04:17.855 align:start SUDDENLY THEY GO A DIFFERENT 04:17.858 --> 04:18.723 align:start DIRECTION, OR THE PARTY SAYS 04:18.726 --> 04:20.358 align:start HE'S NOT THE PERSON TO REPRESENT 04:20.361 --> 04:22.093 align:start US AND I'M REFERRING TO DONALD 04:22.096 --> 04:22.427 align:start TRUMP, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT WE'RE 04:22.430 --> 04:25.063 align:start HEARING. 04:25.066 --> 04:30.535 align:start >> ON THE FIRST ROUND OF VOTING, 04:30.538 --> 04:32.203 align:start THE DELEGATES HAVE TO VOTE FOR 04:32.206 --> 04:32.837 align:start THE CANDIDATE THAT THEY WERE 04:32.840 --> 04:35.239 align:start SUPPOSED TO DO SO. 04:35.242 --> 04:36.507 align:start THE SECOND ROUND, IT DEPENDS ON 04:36.510 --> 04:38.009 align:start THE STATE LAWS, BUT ON THE 04:38.012 --> 04:40.578 align:start SECOND ROUND, I THINK IT'S 04:40.581 --> 04:43.648 align:start AROUND 80% ARE THEN FREED UP. 04:43.651 --> 04:45.249 align:start AND THEY CAN VOTE FOR WHICHEVER 04:45.252 --> 04:46.818 align:start CANDIDATE THEY WANT. 04:46.821 --> 04:49.587 align:start AND SO IT MAY BE, YOU KNOW, 04:49.590 --> 04:51.022 align:start SOMEONE WHO IS A TRUMP VOTER ON 04:51.025 --> 04:52.523 align:start THE FIRST ROUND, IN THE SECOND 04:52.526 --> 04:52.824 align:start ROUND MIGHT DECIDE TO VOTE FOR 04:52.827 --> 04:53.558 align:start CRUZ. 04:53.561 --> 04:55.860 align:start >> WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN THAT 04:55.863 --> 04:58.162 align:start FIRST AND SECOND ROUND? 04:58.165 --> 04:58.463 align:start WHAT HAS CHANGED HIS OR HER 04:58.466 --> 05:00.698 align:start MIND? 05:00.701 --> 05:02.500 align:start >> WELL, THE DELEGATES ARE 05:02.503 --> 05:03.935 align:start ACTUALLY CHOSEN AFTER THE EVENT. 05:03.938 --> 05:09.807 align:start AND SOME OF THE DELEGATES WHO 05:09.810 --> 05:11.442 align:start ARE BEING CHOSEN ARE, AGAIN, 05:11.445 --> 05:13.444 align:start LOCAL PARTY ACTIVISTS WHO MAY 05:13.447 --> 05:14.512 align:start HAVE DIFFERENT LOYALTIES. 05:14.515 --> 05:15.613 align:start AND SO THEY'RE BOUND ON THE 05:15.616 --> 05:17.415 align:start FIRST ROUND OF VOTING. 05:17.418 --> 05:19.484 align:start BUT IN THE SECOND ROUND OF 05:19.487 --> 05:20.785 align:start VOTING, MAYBE SOME OTHER 05:20.788 --> 05:23.621 align:start PREFERENCES WILL COME OUT. 05:23.624 --> 05:27.158 align:start AND TED CRUZ HAS ALSO BEEN OUT 05:27.161 --> 05:28.559 align:start THERE COURTING THEM ALREADY, 05:28.562 --> 05:29.927 align:start TALKING TO THEM AND TRYING TO 05:29.930 --> 05:31.929 align:start CONVINCE THEM IF IT GOES TO A 05:31.932 --> 05:32.964 align:start SECOND BALLOT, THAT THEY MIGHT 05:32.967 --> 05:34.899 align:start SUPPORT HIM INSTEAD. 05:34.902 --> 05:35.333 align:start >> ARE LOBBYISTS PLAYING A ROLE 05:35.336 --> 05:38.369 align:start IN THAT CASE? 05:38.372 --> 05:40.471 align:start >> NOT SO MUCH THE LOBBYISTS, 05:40.474 --> 05:41.239 align:start IT'S THE CANDIDATE AND THEIR 05:41.242 --> 05:41.572 align:start ORGANIZATIONS TRYING TO TALK TO 05:41.575 --> 05:43.207 align:start PEOPLE. 05:43.210 --> 05:45.309 align:start CRUZ IS BETTER ORGANIZED AT THIS 05:45.312 --> 05:47.779 align:start THAN TRUMP IS RIGHT NOW. 05:47.782 --> 05:48.513 align:start >> THE ARIZONA REPUBLICAN 05:48.516 --> 05:49.681 align:start CONVENTION COMING UP AT THE END 05:49.684 --> 05:51.282 align:start OF APRIL, WHAT DOES THAT 05:51.285 --> 05:52.817 align:start TYPICALLY ENTAIL? 05:52.820 --> 05:54.352 align:start >> THEY'LL BE CHOOSING THE 05:54.355 --> 05:55.053 align:start DELEGATES THAT WILL GO TO A 05:55.056 --> 05:56.154 align:start NATIONAL CONVENTION FOR THE 05:56.157 --> 05:57.522 align:start STATE OF ARIZONA. 05:57.525 --> 05:59.157 align:start THEM ALL BE BOUND TO VOTE FOR 05:59.160 --> 06:02.093 align:start TRUMP ON THE FIRST BALLOT. 06:02.096 --> 06:05.029 align:start BUT AGAIN, WHAT HAPPENS ON THE 06:05.032 --> 06:05.330 align:start SECOND BALLOT IS ANYBODY'S 06:05.333 --> 06:06.664 align:start GUESS. 06:06.667 --> 06:08.299 align:start >> WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THE 06:08.302 --> 06:09.334 align:start REPUBLICAN PARTY, FOR EXAMPLE, 06:09.337 --> 06:10.802 align:start PICKING AN ENTIRELY NEW 06:10.805 --> 06:12.337 align:start CANDIDATE ALTOGETHER? 06:12.340 --> 06:13.971 align:start >> THAT'S LESS LIKELY THAN 06:13.974 --> 06:18.509 align:start HAVING A BATTLE BETWEEN TRUMP 06:18.512 --> 06:20.244 align:start AND CRUZ AND MAYBE KASICH. 06:20.247 --> 06:21.412 align:start THERE IS SOME REPUBLICAN RULES 06:21.415 --> 06:25.149 align:start RIGHT NOW THAT SORT OF RESTRICT 06:25.152 --> 06:26.184 align:start WHO CAN BE PUT INTO NOMINATION. 06:26.187 --> 06:27.018 align:start THEY HAVE TO HAVE WON EIGHT 06:27.021 --> 06:28.820 align:start STATES, ACTUALLY. 06:28.823 --> 06:30.688 align:start SO THEY WOULD HAVE TO CHANGE 06:30.691 --> 06:31.022 align:start THAT RULE BEFORE THE CONVENTION 06:31.025 --> 06:31.923 align:start STARTED. 06:31.926 --> 06:34.225 align:start >> SO THIS CAMPAIGN OR THIS 06:34.228 --> 06:34.959 align:start ELECTION WILL END UP MAYBE 06:34.962 --> 06:37.962 align:start FUDGING SOME OF THE RULES IN 06:37.965 --> 06:39.497 align:start SOME WAY? 06:39.500 --> 06:40.898 align:start >> WELL, THERE IS A RULES 06:40.901 --> 06:42.066 align:start COMMITTEE, AND IT GETS TO MAKE 06:42.069 --> 06:43.634 align:start SOME PRELIMINARY DECISIONS 06:43.637 --> 06:44.369 align:start BEFORE THE CONVENTION STARTS, 06:44.372 --> 06:46.137 align:start AND WHETHER OR NOT THE 06:46.140 --> 06:46.871 align:start CONVENTION WOULD ADOPT THOSE, 06:46.874 --> 06:49.841 align:start AGAIN, IS SOMETHING THAT MIGHT 06:49.844 --> 06:51.042 align:start TELL YOU HOW CONTENTIOUS THE 06:51.045 --> 06:52.443 align:start REPUBLICAN CONVENTION ALREADY. 06:52.446 --> 06:52.744 align:start >> CERTAINLY ONE FOR THE HISTORY 06:52.747 --> 06:53.678 align:start BOOKS. 06:53.681 --> 06:55.380 align:start >> YES. 06:55.383 --> 06:56.014 align:start >> DOCTOR, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR 06:56.017 --> 06:57.615 align:start YOUR TIME. 06:57.618 --> 06:59.150 align:start >>> AS YOU HEARD BARBARA 06:59.153 --> 07:00.018 align:start MENTION, THE RULES CAN CHANGE. 07:00.021 --> 07:04.789 align:start BUT WILL THEY? 07:04.792 --> 07:06.557 align:start FOR MORE ON THAT I'M JOINED BY 07:06.560 --> 07:07.558 align:start AN ARIZONA REPUBLICAN 07:07.561 --> 07:08.793 align:start COMMITTEEMAN. 07:08.796 --> 07:10.228 align:start WILL THE RULES CHANGE? 07:10.231 --> 07:11.095 align:start WE KNOW THEY CAN, BUT WHAT WILL 07:11.098 --> 07:11.863 align:start WE SEE? 07:11.866 --> 07:13.131 align:start >> THEY COULD. 07:13.134 --> 07:16.000 align:start THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF TALK ABOUT 07:16.003 --> 07:18.136 align:start RULE 40-B, THE THRESHOLD THAT 07:18.139 --> 07:18.469 align:start REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES HAVE TO 07:18.472 --> 07:21.272 align:start MEET. 07:21.275 --> 07:22.573 align:start I DOUBT THAT THAT'S GOING TO BE 07:22.576 --> 07:23.775 align:start CHANGED PRIOR TO THE CONVENTION, 07:23.778 --> 07:27.211 align:start BECAUSE THE TWO CANDIDATES WHO 07:27.214 --> 07:29.080 align:start HAVE THE GREATEST NUMBER OF 07:29.083 --> 07:30.148 align:start DELEGATES TO THEIR CREDIT SO 07:30.151 --> 07:31.949 align:start FAR, THEY'RE GOING TO BE MEET 07:31.952 --> 07:33.484 align:start THE EIGHT STATES. 07:33.487 --> 07:33.885 align:start NOBODY ELSE WILL GOING INTO THE 07:33.888 --> 07:34.986 align:start CONVENTION. 07:34.989 --> 07:36.387 align:start THE GREATEST NUMBER OF PEOPLE, 07:36.390 --> 07:37.422 align:start WHETHER IT'S IN THE STANDING 07:37.425 --> 07:40.091 align:start COMMITTEE ON RULES OR THE 07:40.094 --> 07:41.726 align:start CONVENTION RULES COMMITTEE, 07:41.729 --> 07:42.694 align:start THEY'RE ALL GOING TO BE TRUMP OR 07:42.697 --> 07:44.629 align:start CRUZ SUPPORTERS. 07:44.632 --> 07:49.267 align:start SO THE CHANCES OF 40-B BEING 07:49.270 --> 07:49.901 align:start CHANGED ARE VERY, VERY SLIM 07:49.904 --> 07:51.469 align:start GOING INTO THE CONVENTION. 07:51.472 --> 07:56.007 align:start THE OTHER RULE BEING TALKED 07:56.010 --> 07:57.442 align:start ABOUT, AND THERE WILL BE AN 07:57.445 --> 07:58.810 align:start AMENDMENT NEXT WEEK, WILL HAVE 07:58.813 --> 07:59.210 align:start TO DO WITH THE RULES OF THE 07:59.213 --> 08:01.412 align:start CONVENTION. 08:01.415 --> 08:03.348 align:start WILL WE CONTINUE TO USE THE U.S. 08:03.351 --> 08:04.649 align:start HOUSE RULES, WHICH HAVE BEEN THE 08:04.652 --> 08:06.918 align:start PREVAILING RULE USED ON THE 08:06.921 --> 08:08.953 align:start CONVENTION FLOOR IN BOTH THE 08:08.956 --> 08:11.422 align:start DEMOCRATIC PARTY AS WELL AS THE 08:11.425 --> 08:13.057 align:start REPUBLICAN PARTY SINCE 1860, OR 08:13.060 --> 08:14.592 align:start WILL WE GO TO A FORMAT THAT IS 08:14.595 --> 08:15.994 align:start MOSTLY USED IN ORGANIZATIONAL 08:15.997 --> 08:17.462 align:start MEETINGS, WHICH IS ROBERT'S 08:17.465 --> 08:20.098 align:start RULES OF ORDER? 08:20.101 --> 08:22.400 align:start ROBERT'S RULES OF ORDER WILL 08:22.403 --> 08:24.035 align:start PROVIDE A LOT MORE DELEGATE 08:24.038 --> 08:26.371 align:start EMPOWERMENT AS OPPOSED TO THE 08:26.374 --> 08:27.105 align:start HOUSE RULES WHICH PROVIDED A 08:27.108 --> 08:27.939 align:start CONCENTRATION OF POWER IN THE 08:27.942 --> 08:29.240 align:start CHAIR OF THE CONVENTION. 08:29.243 --> 08:33.544 align:start THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF 08:33.547 --> 08:35.079 align:start DISAGREEMENT ON THAT OVER THE 08:35.082 --> 08:35.613 align:start PAST CONVENTIONS OVER THE PAST 08:35.616 --> 08:36.347 align:start FOUR YEARS. 08:36.350 --> 08:37.315 align:start WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. 08:37.318 --> 08:38.716 align:start THERE WILL BE A STRONG 08:38.719 --> 08:40.752 align:start ATTEMPT -- IT DEPENDS IF THE 08:40.755 --> 08:42.120 align:start TRUMP AND CRUZ CAMPAIGNS GET 08:42.123 --> 08:42.453 align:start INVOLVED IN WANTING TO MAKE THAT 08:42.456 --> 08:44.455 align:start CHANGE. 08:44.458 --> 08:46.157 align:start IF THEY DO, THERE MAY VERY WELL 08:46.160 --> 08:46.557 align:start BE A CHANGE NEXT WEEK THAT 08:46.560 --> 08:48.760 align:start OCCURS. 08:48.763 --> 08:49.360 align:start AND OUR PACKAGE AT THE STANDING 08:49.363 --> 08:51.362 align:start RULES COMMITTEE WILL BE 08:51.365 --> 08:52.997 align:start PRESENTED TO THE RNC AS A WHOLE 08:53.000 --> 08:54.666 align:start WHEN WE MEET THE WEEK BEFORE THE 08:54.669 --> 08:56.901 align:start NATIONAL CONVENTION IN JULY. 08:56.904 --> 08:59.771 align:start AND THEN OUR PACKAGE GETS TURNED 08:59.774 --> 09:01.172 align:start OVER TO THE CONVENTION RULES, 09:01.175 --> 09:02.707 align:start AND THEY MAKE THE FINAL 09:02.710 --> 09:03.107 align:start DECISIONS THAT GO INTO THE 09:03.110 --> 09:03.841 align:start CONVENTION. 09:03.844 --> 09:05.576 align:start THE INTERESTING THING IS FROM 09:05.579 --> 09:06.978 align:start THE VERY START, WHETHER IT'S 09:06.981 --> 09:08.546 align:start SOMEBODY ELECTED AS A NATIONAL 09:08.549 --> 09:09.981 align:start COMMITTEE PERSON, STATE PARTY 09:09.984 --> 09:11.582 align:start CHAIRMAN, A DELEGATE TO THE 09:11.585 --> 09:14.652 align:start NATIONAL CONVENTION, THESE ARE 09:14.655 --> 09:16.521 align:start ALL PEOPLE THAT GOT TO THE PLACE 09:16.524 --> 09:18.222 align:start TO VOTE ON THESE THINGS BECAUSE 09:18.225 --> 09:20.958 align:start OTHER PEOPLE VOTED FOR THEM. 09:20.961 --> 09:23.094 align:start THOSE 24, ALMOST 2500 DELEGATES 09:23.097 --> 09:25.096 align:start ON THE CONVENTION FLOOR IN 09:25.099 --> 09:25.997 align:start CLEVELAND, WHATEVER HAPPENS IN 09:26.000 --> 09:27.799 align:start CLEVELAND, AND WHATEVER HAPPENS 09:27.802 --> 09:29.667 align:start IN PHILADELPHIA FOR THE 09:29.670 --> 09:30.368 align:start DEMOCRATS, ALL DECIDED ON THE 09:30.371 --> 09:34.372 align:start CONVENTION FLOOR. 09:34.375 --> 09:36.074 align:start THE DAYS OF SMOKE-FILLED ROOMS 09:36.077 --> 09:37.108 align:start AND SOMEBODY SAYING WE WANT 09:37.111 --> 09:38.609 align:start HARVEY TO BE OUR CANDIDATE, 09:38.612 --> 09:40.912 align:start THOSE DAYS ARE OVER. 09:40.915 --> 09:44.515 align:start THERE'S NOBODY THAT HAS THE SORT 09:44.518 --> 09:45.583 align:start OF POLITICAL UMPH TO PROPEL A 09:45.586 --> 09:46.484 align:start CANDIDATE. 09:46.487 --> 09:47.919 align:start IT'S POPULAR SUPPORT. 09:47.922 --> 09:48.920 align:start WE'VE SEEN THAT. 09:48.923 --> 09:50.355 align:start THERE'S BEEN MILLIONS AND 09:50.358 --> 09:52.490 align:start MILLIONS MORE VOTES, BOTH ON THE 09:52.493 --> 09:55.226 align:start REPUBLICAN AND THE DEMOCRATIC 09:55.229 --> 09:55.493 align:start SIDE, CAST IN THESE PRIMARIES SO 09:55.496 --> 09:58.296 align:start FAR. 09:58.299 --> 10:01.199 align:start VERY MUCH EMPOWERS VOTERS, VERY 10:01.202 --> 10:01.599 align:start MUCH EMPOWERS DELEGATES AT THESE 10:01.602 --> 10:03.267 align:start CONVENTIONS. 10:03.270 --> 10:05.103 align:start >> YOU'RE A DELEGATE. 10:05.106 --> 10:07.772 align:start WHAT ARE THESE CONVENTIONS LIKE. 10:07.775 --> 10:08.072 align:start IT CAN GET NASTY, IT WILL GET 10:08.075 --> 10:09.974 align:start NASTY? 10:09.977 --> 10:11.342 align:start >> BY THE TIME WE GET TO 10:11.345 --> 10:14.345 align:start CLEVELAND, PARTICULARLY IF THE 10:14.348 --> 10:16.581 align:start TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS SLIGHTLY SHORT 10:16.584 --> 10:17.782 align:start OF 1237 DELEGATES, IT'S LIKELY 10:17.785 --> 10:19.851 align:start YOU'LL BE DOWN TO FIST FIGHTING 10:19.854 --> 10:22.220 align:start AND HAND TO HAND COMBAT, BECAUSE 10:22.223 --> 10:24.756 align:start THEY'LL BE SCRAPING FOR EVERY 10:24.759 --> 10:26.290 align:start DELEGATE THAT THEY CAN FIND. 10:26.293 --> 10:27.291 align:start IF DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T ACHIEVE 10:27.294 --> 10:29.327 align:start 1237 ON THE FIRST BALLOT, IT 10:29.330 --> 10:31.129 align:start WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR HIM. 10:31.132 --> 10:32.330 align:start IF IT GOES TO A MULTI-BALLOT 10:32.333 --> 10:34.065 align:start CONVENTION, AND I'M NOT SURE 10:34.068 --> 10:36.367 align:start IT'S GOING THAT WAY, BUT IF IT 10:36.370 --> 10:37.835 align:start GOES TO A MULTIBALLOT 10:37.838 --> 10:39.303 align:start CONVENTION, THE SECOND VOTE WILL 10:39.306 --> 10:40.605 align:start BE MORE CRUCIAL FOR CRUZ THAN 10:40.608 --> 10:41.539 align:start TRUMP, BECAUSE CRUZ IS REALLY 10:41.542 --> 10:47.178 align:start GOING TO HAVE TO UP HIS NUMBERS. 10:47.181 --> 10:48.813 align:start HE MAY BE 300 OR 400 DELEGATES 10:48.816 --> 10:49.213 align:start BOTH BEHIND TRUMP GOING INTO THE 10:49.216 --> 10:55.186 align:start CONVENTION. 10:55.189 --> 10:56.888 align:start IT WILL BE A VERYYNAMIC TO SEE 10:56.891 --> 10:58.456 align:start TRUMP SUPPORTERS FALL BY THE 10:58.459 --> 11:01.926 align:start WAYSIDE, ONCE THEY'RE UNBOUND 11:01.929 --> 11:02.660 align:start AND CAN VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE, 11:02.663 --> 11:04.262 align:start WHETHER THEY CONTINUE VOTING FOR 11:04.265 --> 11:04.629 align:start TRUMP OR IF THEY SWITCH OVER TO 11:04.632 --> 11:06.531 align:start CRUZ. 11:06.534 --> 11:08.700 align:start AND THEY'LL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY 11:08.703 --> 11:10.535 align:start TWO CANDIDATES WHOSE NAMES WILL 11:10.538 --> 11:12.437 align:start BE PLACED INTO NOMINATION, AT 11:12.440 --> 11:13.504 align:start LEAST COMMON WISDOM TODAY. 11:13.507 --> 11:14.505 align:start >> DONALD TRUMP IS NOT 11:14.508 --> 11:15.039 align:start AFFILIATED WITH THE REPUBLICAN 11:15.042 --> 11:18.476 align:start NATIONAL COMMITTEE? 11:18.479 --> 11:18.976 align:start >> NO, HE'S NEVER APPEARED IN 11:18.979 --> 11:19.877 align:start FRONT OF US. 11:19.880 --> 11:21.879 align:start I HAVEN'T MET HIM. 11:21.882 --> 11:23.481 align:start MOST ALL OF US HAVE MET ALL OF 11:23.484 --> 11:24.649 align:start THE OTHER MEN AND WOMEN WHO WERE 11:24.652 --> 11:26.017 align:start CANDIDATE IN THIS RACE. 11:26.020 --> 11:27.018 align:start >> HOW VIABLE A CANDIDATE IS HE 11:27.021 --> 11:28.553 align:start WITHIN THE PARTY? 11:28.556 --> 11:30.955 align:start >> WELL, WITHIN THE PARTY, 11:30.958 --> 11:32.557 align:start MEANING REPUBLICAN VOTERS, HE'S 11:32.560 --> 11:33.491 align:start PROBABLY VERY VIABLE. 11:33.494 --> 11:34.359 align:start HE'S WON MILLIONS AND MILLIONS 11:34.362 --> 11:36.461 align:start OF VOTES. 11:36.464 --> 11:37.195 align:start HE'S WON THE MAJORITY OF THE 11:37.198 --> 11:38.863 align:start CONTESTS AROUND THE COUNTRY. 11:38.866 --> 11:41.065 align:start BUT IT'S NOT A MATTER OF WHO 11:41.068 --> 11:44.068 align:start GETS THE MOST VOTES OVERALL. 11:44.071 --> 11:45.570 align:start IT'S NOT A MATTER OF WHO WINS 11:45.573 --> 11:46.804 align:start THE MOST. 11:46.807 --> 11:49.440 align:start IT'S DELEGATE COUNT. 11:49.443 --> 11:51.109 align:start SOME OF THAT IS PREORDAINED BY 11:51.112 --> 11:52.276 align:start STATE STATUTE OR PARTY RULES. 11:52.279 --> 11:53.811 align:start AND SOME OF THAT, WHERE THERE 11:53.814 --> 11:55.013 align:start ARE UNBOUND CANDIDATES, WE KNOW 11:55.016 --> 11:57.815 align:start IN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA, 11:57.818 --> 12:03.054 align:start IN COLORADO, THERE'S STORIES, 12:03.057 --> 12:05.556 align:start YOU KNOW, WHERE UNBOUND 12:05.559 --> 12:06.791 align:start CANDIDATES ARE BEING WOOED BY 12:06.794 --> 12:08.026 align:start BOTH SIDES. 12:08.029 --> 12:09.761 align:start THE CRUZ PEOPLE APPEAR TO HAVE A 12:09.764 --> 12:12.230 align:start BETTER SENSE OF HOW THE RNC 12:12.233 --> 12:15.366 align:start WORKS, DELEGATE MATH AND SO ON. 12:15.369 --> 12:18.102 align:start MR. TRUMP JUST HIRED RICK WILY 12:18.105 --> 12:19.971 align:start WHO WORKED FOR SCOTT WALKER. 12:19.974 --> 12:21.305 align:start SO I PREDICT THAT MR. TRUMP'S 12:21.308 --> 12:22.640 align:start DELEGATE MATHEMATICS AND HIS 12:22.643 --> 12:24.976 align:start ABILITY TO OPERATE BETWEEN NOW 12:24.979 --> 12:26.978 align:start AND CONVENTION TIME IN JULY IS 12:26.981 --> 12:29.647 align:start GOING TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. 12:29.650 --> 12:31.749 align:start WILY KNOWS THE RNC VERY WELL. 12:31.752 --> 12:33.651 align:start >> IS HE TAPPING INTO SOMETHING 12:33.654 --> 12:34.519 align:start THAT NO ONE'S BEEN ABLE TO 12:34.522 --> 12:37.121 align:start BEFORE? 12:37.124 --> 12:38.990 align:start >> DONALD TRUMP PROBABLY 12:38.993 --> 12:40.958 align:start UNDERSTANDS MEDIA DYNAMICS 12:40.961 --> 12:41.859 align:start BETTER THAN ANYBODY ELSE, HAVING 12:41.862 --> 12:44.028 align:start BEEN A TELEVISION PERSONALITY. 12:44.031 --> 12:46.564 align:start HE'S REALLY BEEN A NATIONAL 12:46.567 --> 12:47.598 align:start PERSONALITY, WHEN YOU GO BACK 12:47.601 --> 12:48.700 align:start PROBABLY 25 YEARS, IF YOU 12:48.703 --> 12:49.901 align:start REMEMBER WHEN HE USED TO COME TO 12:49.904 --> 12:51.002 align:start THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 12:51.005 --> 12:52.370 align:start BASKETBALL GAMES, THE GAMES 12:52.373 --> 12:54.072 align:start WOULD STOP WHEN HE WOULD BE WITH 12:54.075 --> 12:54.906 align:start A FRIEND OF HIS DOWN AT CENTER 12:54.909 --> 12:57.809 align:start COURT. 12:57.812 --> 12:58.976 align:start HE HAS THAT KIND OF MAGNETISM AS 12:58.979 --> 13:00.311 align:start AN INDIVIDUAL. 13:00.314 --> 13:02.046 align:start HE'S A VERY INTERESTING FELLOW. 13:02.049 --> 13:02.380 align:start >> WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT 13:02.383 --> 13:03.681 align:start VOTERS? 13:03.684 --> 13:04.015 align:start >> WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT 13:04.018 --> 13:04.949 align:start VOTERS? 13:04.952 --> 13:08.453 align:start THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. 13:08.456 --> 13:10.988 align:start I THINK WHAT IT SAYS ABOUT 13:10.991 --> 13:11.422 align:start VOTERS TODAY IS THEY'RE LOOKING 13:11.425 --> 13:12.890 align:start FOR A LEADER. 13:12.893 --> 13:14.025 align:start THE SAME WAY WE WERE LOOKING FOR 13:14.028 --> 13:15.059 align:start A LEADER IN 2008. 13:15.062 --> 13:17.929 align:start BARACK OBAMA WAS THAT LEADER 13:17.932 --> 13:20.131 align:start THAT AMERICANS FELT COULD 13:20.134 --> 13:22.266 align:start PROVIDE HOPE AND CHANGE. 13:22.269 --> 13:23.868 align:start WHAT HOPE AND CHANGE MEANS IN 13:23.871 --> 13:26.037 align:start 2016 MAY LOOK A LITTLE DIFFERENT 13:26.040 --> 13:27.905 align:start THAN WHAT IT DID IN 2008. 13:27.908 --> 13:29.440 align:start BUT AS MY FRIENDS HAVE TOLD ME, 13:29.443 --> 13:32.410 align:start AS I'VE LEARNED IN THE BUSINESS, 13:32.413 --> 13:35.847 align:start THE CENTER IS ALWAYS MOVING IN A 13:35.850 --> 13:37.482 align:start POLITICAL DYNAMIC. 13:37.485 --> 13:38.783 align:start AND IT JUST DEPENDS ON WHICH 13:38.786 --> 13:40.685 align:start DIRECTION IT'S FLOWING. 13:40.688 --> 13:41.853 align:start I THINK WE'VE BEEN A 13:41.856 --> 13:42.153 align:start CENTER-RIGHT COUNTRY FOR A LONG 13:42.156 --> 13:44.455 align:start TIME. 13:44.458 --> 13:45.823 align:start WE'RE PROBABLY MORE MIDDLE 13:45.826 --> 13:48.660 align:start CENTER TODAY, AND OVER THE PAST 13:48.663 --> 13:50.928 align:start EIGHT YEARS. 13:50.931 --> 13:52.196 align:start IT DEPENDS ON HOPES, FEARS, 13:52.199 --> 13:53.931 align:start WORLD EVENTS, NATIONAL SECURITY 13:53.934 --> 13:56.067 align:start IS GOING TO BE A BIG ISSUE, THE 13:56.070 --> 13:56.367 align:start ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE A BIG 13:56.370 --> 13:58.503 align:start ISSUE. 13:58.506 --> 14:00.672 align:start BUT THE PERSONAL MAGNETISM OF 14:00.675 --> 14:02.640 align:start WHOEVER THE NOMINEE IS, IS GOING 14:02.643 --> 14:04.976 align:start TO BE A BIG DEAL. 14:04.979 --> 14:06.310 align:start IF IT'S MRS. CLINTON WHO IS THE 14:06.313 --> 14:07.045 align:start DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE, HER 14:07.048 --> 14:08.680 align:start NEGATIVES ARE VERY HIGH. 14:08.683 --> 14:11.449 align:start THE SAME WAY THAT DONALD TRUMP'S 14:11.452 --> 14:14.285 align:start NEGATIVES ARE VERY HIGH. 14:14.288 --> 14:15.953 align:start THIS COULD BE AN ELECTION, 14:15.956 --> 14:18.556 align:start LORRAINE, WERE FEWER PEOPLE TURN 14:18.559 --> 14:19.524 align:start OUT IN 2016 THAN MAYBE THEY DID 14:19.527 --> 14:20.725 align:start IN 2008. 14:20.728 --> 14:25.596 align:start >> AND WHAT DOES THIS ELECTION 14:25.599 --> 14:27.832 align:start TELL US ABOUT VOTERS? 14:27.835 --> 14:30.468 align:start AN ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AT THE U 14:30.471 --> 14:32.437 align:start OF A SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY. 14:32.440 --> 14:33.471 align:start THANKS FOR BEING HERE. 14:33.474 --> 14:35.640 align:start >> IT'S GREAT TO BE HERE. 14:35.643 --> 14:36.274 align:start >> THIS IS A UNIQUE ELECTION. 14:36.277 --> 14:38.009 align:start >> EXCITING. 14:38.012 --> 14:38.476 align:start >> AND SOME PEOPLE THINK, KIND 14:38.479 --> 14:39.410 align:start OF COMPLICATED. 14:39.413 --> 14:40.244 align:start >> YES. 14:40.247 --> 14:41.679 align:start >> WHAT DOES IT TELL US ABOUT 14:41.682 --> 14:43.815 align:start THE VOTERS OUT THERE? 14:43.818 --> 14:45.016 align:start >> I'VE BEEN FINDING IN MY 14:45.019 --> 14:46.584 align:start RESEARCH THAT AMERICAN VOTERS 14:46.587 --> 14:47.852 align:start ARE TIRED OF BOTH PARTIES. 14:47.855 --> 14:49.821 align:start PEOPLE ARE MORE TIRED OF THEIR 14:49.824 --> 14:50.154 align:start OWN PARTY THAN WE'VE SEEN 14:50.157 --> 14:53.124 align:start BEFORE. 14:53.127 --> 14:54.125 align:start SO THERE'S A LOT OF NEGATIVE 14:54.128 --> 14:54.459 align:start FEELINGS TOWARD THE PARTY 14:54.462 --> 14:55.426 align:start SYSTEM. 14:55.429 --> 14:56.527 align:start PEOPLE WANT SOMETHING DIFFERENT, 14:56.530 --> 14:57.428 align:start SOMEONE WHO IS NOT AFFILIATED 14:57.431 --> 15:00.264 align:start WITH EITHER PARTY. 15:00.267 --> 15:00.698 align:start >> YOU JUST WROTE A BOOK ABOUT 15:00.701 --> 15:01.532 align:start INDEPENDENTS. 15:01.535 --> 15:02.834 align:start DOES THAT MEAN BERNIE SANDERS 15:02.837 --> 15:05.603 align:start AND DONALD TRUMP TEND TO BE MORE 15:05.606 --> 15:06.270 align:start LIKE AN INDEPENDENT AS OPPOSED 15:06.273 --> 15:06.971 align:start TO THE TRADITIONAL PARTIES 15:06.974 --> 15:09.841 align:start THEY'RE ASSOCIATED WITH? 15:09.844 --> 15:11.776 align:start >> WHAT MY CO-AUTHOR AND I FOUND 15:11.779 --> 15:13.177 align:start IS, WHAT DRIVES PEOPLE TO 15:13.180 --> 15:15.313 align:start IDENTIFY AS INDEPENDENT IS THE 15:15.316 --> 15:17.181 align:start SAME MOTIVATION THAT DRIVES THEM 15:17.184 --> 15:17.582 align:start TO PULL AWAY FROM POLITICS 15:17.585 --> 15:18.282 align:start ALTOGETHER. 15:18.285 --> 15:19.417 align:start THEY DON'T WANT TO ASSOCIATE 15:19.420 --> 15:20.718 align:start WITH A PARTY IN PUBLIC. 15:20.721 --> 15:23.588 align:start THEY DON'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT 15:23.591 --> 15:23.988 align:start THEIR PREFERRED PARTY IN SOCIAL 15:23.991 --> 15:24.722 align:start SITUATIONS. 15:24.725 --> 15:25.390 align:start DONALD TRUMP AND BERNIE SANDERS 15:25.393 --> 15:27.959 align:start ALLOW PEOPLE TO SUPPORT A 15:27.962 --> 15:29.861 align:start CANDIDATE WHO IS NOT 15:29.864 --> 15:30.895 align:start TRADITIONALLY ASSOCIATED WITH 15:30.898 --> 15:31.829 align:start EITHER PARTY. 15:31.832 --> 15:32.897 align:start BERNIE SANDERS IS LEGITIMATELY 15:32.900 --> 15:34.365 align:start AN INDEPENDENT. 15:34.368 --> 15:35.900 align:start AND DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T HAVE A 15:35.903 --> 15:36.934 align:start REAL HISTORY OF BEING A DEMOCRAT 15:36.937 --> 15:39.737 align:start OR A REPUBLICAN. 15:39.740 --> 15:41.806 align:start THEY SORT OF GIVE VOTERS AN OUT. 15:41.809 --> 15:43.307 align:start >> THESE TWO MEN SEEM TO TALK 15:43.310 --> 15:44.876 align:start NOT LIKE MOST POLITICIANS. 15:44.879 --> 15:46.110 align:start >> YES, THAT'S RIGHT. 15:46.113 --> 15:47.311 align:start >> DOES THAT GO A LONG WAY WITH 15:47.314 --> 15:48.546 align:start THE VOTERS? 15:48.549 --> 15:49.580 align:start >> I THINK IT DOES. 15:49.583 --> 15:51.082 align:start PEOPLE DON'T REALLY BELIEVE 15:51.085 --> 15:52.183 align:start CANDIDATES ANYMORE, THEY DON'T 15:52.186 --> 15:54.652 align:start TRUST WHAT THEY'RE SAYING. 15:54.655 --> 15:55.753 align:start THE FACT THAT DONALD TRUMP MAKES 15:55.756 --> 15:57.188 align:start GRANDIOSE PROMISES AND BERNIE 15:57.191 --> 15:57.822 align:start SANDERS DOES THE SAME, DOESN'T 15:57.825 --> 15:58.756 align:start BOTHER PEOPLE. 15:58.759 --> 16:00.358 align:start THEY DON'T BELIEVE WHAT THE 16:00.361 --> 16:02.460 align:start OTHER GUYS ARE SAYING ANYWAY. 16:02.463 --> 16:03.761 align:start THEY WANT TO KNOW WHAT ARE THEIR 16:03.764 --> 16:04.629 align:start PRIORITIES, WHERE ARE THEY 16:04.632 --> 16:05.930 align:start PLACING THEIR EMPHASIS. 16:05.933 --> 16:07.699 align:start THE FACT THAT THEIR POLICIES MAY 16:07.702 --> 16:09.000 align:start OR MAY NOT COME TO FRUITION 16:09.003 --> 16:09.934 align:start DOESN'T SEEM TO BE BOTHERING 16:09.937 --> 16:11.436 align:start THEIR SUPPORTERS AT ALL. 16:11.439 --> 16:11.803 align:start >> YOU SAID THIS IS AN EXCITING 16:11.806 --> 16:13.071 align:start ELECTION. 16:13.074 --> 16:14.439 align:start FOR SOME PEOPLE IT IS. 16:14.442 --> 16:16.074 align:start WOULDN'T YOU SAY IT'S ALSO 16:16.077 --> 16:17.408 align:start GAINING SOME GROUND, SOME 16:17.411 --> 16:18.976 align:start ATTENTION WITH PEOPLE WHO DON'T 16:18.979 --> 16:19.744 align:start NORMALLY PAY ATTENTION TO 16:19.747 --> 16:21.846 align:start NATIONAL ELECTIONS? 16:21.849 --> 16:23.014 align:start >> YEAH, I MEAN, IT'S CERTAINLY 16:23.017 --> 16:24.315 align:start BRINGING OUT VOTERS WHO HAVE NOT 16:24.318 --> 16:27.485 align:start VOTED BEFORE. 16:27.488 --> 16:28.986 align:start THE MEDIA IS CAPTURING A LOT OF 16:28.989 --> 16:30.355 align:start ATTENTION FROM PEOPLE WHO DIDN'T 16:30.358 --> 16:32.724 align:start USUALLY WATCH THE NEWS BEFORE. 16:32.727 --> 16:33.891 align:start AND OF COURSE A LOT OF PEOPLE 16:33.894 --> 16:34.759 align:start ARE TALKING ABOUT THE AMERICAN 16:34.762 --> 16:35.994 align:start ELECTION IN OTHER COUNTRIES. 16:35.997 --> 16:36.961 align:start IT COULD BE FOR GOOD REASONS OR 16:36.964 --> 16:38.296 align:start NOT GREAT REASONS. 16:38.299 --> 16:39.530 align:start ULTIMATELY THE ENGAGEMENT WITH 16:39.533 --> 16:39.931 align:start POLITICS I THINK IS A GOOD 16:39.934 --> 16:41.599 align:start THING. 16:41.602 --> 16:42.300 align:start >> HOW DOES THE MEDIA PLAY A 16:42.303 --> 16:43.434 align:start ROLE IN THIS DISCUSSION? 16:43.437 --> 16:45.269 align:start >> THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF TALK 16:45.272 --> 16:46.637 align:start ABOUT HOW THE MEDIA HAS BEEN 16:46.640 --> 16:49.674 align:start GIVING DONALD TRUMP A LOT OF 16:49.677 --> 16:50.842 align:start FREE MEDIA, GIVING HIM A LOT OF 16:50.845 --> 16:53.644 align:start COVERAGE, A LOT OF ATTENTION. 16:53.647 --> 16:54.979 align:start AND THE CANDIDATES CAN IN MANY 16:54.982 --> 16:55.813 align:start WAYS DETERMINE HOW MUCH FREE 16:55.816 --> 16:57.815 align:start MEDIA THEY GET. 16:57.818 --> 16:58.516 align:start DONALD TRUMP DOES NOT SAY NO TO 16:58.519 --> 17:00.918 align:start AN INTERVIEW. 17:00.921 --> 17:02.687 align:start HE'S CALLING INTO THE MEDIA 17:02.690 --> 17:03.187 align:start SHOWS, DOING PHONE INTERVIEWS ON 17:03.190 --> 17:04.489 align:start "MEET THE PRESS." 17:04.492 --> 17:08.092 align:start TED CRUZ HAS BEEN KNOW MORE I 17:08.095 --> 17:09.360 align:start COULDN'T SAYLY UNWILLING TO MEET 17:09.363 --> 17:09.827 align:start NOTORIOUSLY UNWILLING TO MEET 17:09.830 --> 17:11.029 align:start WITH THE MEDIA. 17:11.032 --> 17:12.063 align:start DONALD TRUMP IS GETTING THE MOST 17:12.066 --> 17:12.463 align:start ATTENTION BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT HE 17:12.466 --> 17:13.598 align:start WANTS. 17:13.601 --> 17:14.732 align:start HE HAS SAID NEGATIVE ATTENTION 17:14.735 --> 17:15.199 align:start IS BETTER THAN NO ATTENTION AT 17:15.202 --> 17:18.102 align:start ALL. 17:18.105 --> 17:20.805 align:start >> HOW DOES THIS ELECTION PLAY 17:20.808 --> 17:21.873 align:start OUT IN THEHISTORY BOOKS? 17:21.876 --> 17:24.042 align:start >> EVERY ELECTION PEOPLE SAY, 17:24.045 --> 17:25.009 align:start THIS MUST BE A GREAT TIME TO BE 17:25.012 --> 17:26.811 align:start A POLITICAL SCIENTIST. 17:26.814 --> 17:28.980 align:start BUT THIS ELECTION IS REALLY A 17:28.983 --> 17:31.249 align:start GREAT TIME TO BE A POLITICAL 17:31.252 --> 17:31.649 align:start SCIENTIST, ABSOLUTELY 17:31.652 --> 17:32.350 align:start FASCINATING. 17:32.353 --> 17:32.950 align:start IT WILL BE A BIG ELECTION FOR 17:32.953 --> 17:34.819 align:start THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. 17:34.822 --> 17:36.254 align:start THEY HAVE TO CHANGE, THEY HAVE 17:36.257 --> 17:39.257 align:start TO FIGURE OUT WHAT EXACTLY IS 17:39.260 --> 17:39.957 align:start GOING ON WITHIN THE PARTY. 17:39.960 --> 17:40.792 align:start THERE'S SUCH A LACK OF UNITY. 17:40.795 --> 17:41.893 align:start FOR THE DEMOCRATS AS WELL, 17:41.896 --> 17:43.127 align:start BERNIE SANDERS IS BRINGING IN 17:43.130 --> 17:45.229 align:start ALL SORTS OF ISSUES THAT CLINTON 17:45.232 --> 17:45.963 align:start PROBABLY WASN'T PREPARED TO TALK 17:45.966 --> 17:46.397 align:start ABOUT TO THE EXTENT SHE'S BEING 17:46.400 --> 17:48.566 align:start FORCED TO. 17:48.569 --> 17:51.936 align:start THIS ELECTION IS SORT OF A 17:51.939 --> 17:54.305 align:start TURNING POINT IN TERMS OF 17:54.308 --> 17:54.739 align:start REPRIORITIZING FOR BOTH. 17:54.742 --> 17:55.239 align:start >> WONDERFUL. 17:55.242 --> 17:58.710 align:start THANK YOU SO MUCH. 17:58.713 --> 17:59.877 align:start >> THANK YOU. 17:59.880 --> 18:02.480 align:start >>> THE BUZZ NOW. 18:02.483 --> 18:06.918 align:start I'M JOINED BY MY COLLEAGUE HERE 18:06.921 --> 18:08.720 align:start AT "THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC," AND 18:08.723 --> 18:12.223 align:start CHRISTOPHER CONOVER, AND A NEW 18:12.226 --> 18:12.957 align:start GUEST, JOE HIGGINS. 18:12.960 --> 18:13.925 align:start JOE, WELCOME. 18:13.928 --> 18:14.225 align:start CHRISTOPHER, NICE TO HAVE YOU 18:14.228 --> 18:15.393 align:start BACK. 18:15.396 --> 18:16.427 align:start LET'S TALK ABOUT THE 18:16.430 --> 18:20.098 align:start PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY. 18:20.101 --> 18:21.265 align:start JOE, WHAT ARE YOUR LISTENERS 18:21.268 --> 18:23.801 align:start WANTING IN THE NEXT PRESIDENT? 18:23.804 --> 18:24.702 align:start >> WE LISTEN TO THIS DAY BY DAY, 18:24.705 --> 18:26.304 align:start PLAY BY LAY. 18:26.307 --> 18:28.339 align:start AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, 18:28.342 --> 18:29.607 align:start THERE WERE 17 CANDIDATES, EVERY 18:29.610 --> 18:30.775 align:start SHAPE, FLAVOR, OR COLOR THAT YOU 18:30.778 --> 18:32.310 align:start COULD PICK. 18:32.313 --> 18:34.479 align:start IN THE END WE'RE WHITTLED DOWN 18:34.482 --> 18:35.213 align:start TO TWO, POSSIBLY THREE WITH 18:35.216 --> 18:38.750 align:start KASICH STILL IN THERE. 18:38.753 --> 18:39.484 align:start EARLY ON WITH THE TRUMP 18:39.487 --> 18:40.551 align:start PHENOMENON STARTED MOVING ALONG, 18:40.554 --> 18:41.419 align:start I REACHED OUT TO A COUPLE OF 18:41.422 --> 18:42.286 align:start FOLKS I RESPECT IN THE 18:42.289 --> 18:43.654 align:start CONSERVATIVE WORLD, THE 18:43.657 --> 18:45.690 align:start REPUBLICAN WORLD, AND SAID, 18:45.693 --> 18:47.692 align:start GOSH, WHAT AM I MISSING, WHAT IS 18:47.695 --> 18:50.995 align:start IT DID DONALD? 18:50.998 --> 18:52.430 align:start THE BEST ANALOGY I HEARD WAS, 18:52.433 --> 18:55.733 align:start THAT'S CANCER IN D.C. AND DONALD 18:55.736 --> 18:57.268 align:start TRUMP IS THE CHEMOTHERAPY. 18:57.271 --> 18:58.703 align:start WE KNOW HE'LL KILL SOME HEALTHY 18:58.706 --> 19:01.039 align:start CELLS, WE HOPE HE DOESN'T KILL 19:01.042 --> 19:02.707 align:start THE HOST, BUT HE'S GOING TO GET 19:02.710 --> 19:04.008 align:start RID OF THE CANCER. 19:04.011 --> 19:06.010 align:start KIND OF AN INTERESTING ANALOGY. 19:06.013 --> 19:09.480 align:start >> BERNIE SANDERS IS GIVING 19:09.483 --> 19:11.315 align:start HILLARY CLINTON A RUN FOR HER 19:11.318 --> 19:12.016 align:start MONEY. 19:12.019 --> 19:13.551 align:start >> THE FAR RIGHT AND FAR LEFT 19:13.554 --> 19:15.787 align:start ARE VERY ANGRY. 19:15.790 --> 19:17.388 align:start IT HAS TO DO A LOT WITH 19:17.391 --> 19:18.089 align:start OBAMACARE BILLS HITTING PEOPLE'S 19:18.092 --> 19:21.392 align:start KITCHEN TABLES. 19:21.395 --> 19:22.126 align:start REAL WORLD JOBS HAVE BEEN WEAK 19:22.129 --> 19:23.328 align:start IN THE RECESSION. 19:23.331 --> 19:25.396 align:start PEOPLE ARE FRUSTRATED. 19:25.399 --> 19:26.431 align:start >> WE'VE HEARD BEFORE WHAT YOU 19:26.434 --> 19:27.832 align:start JUST SAID, DONALD TRUMP IS 19:27.835 --> 19:28.132 align:start TAPPING INTO THE ANXIETY PEOPLE 19:28.135 --> 19:29.667 align:start HAVE. 19:29.670 --> 19:31.235 align:start BUT HOW FAR WILL IT GO? 19:31.238 --> 19:31.602 align:start IN JUNE HE WASN'T MAYBE A VIABLE 19:31.605 --> 19:32.136 align:start CANDIDATE. 19:32.139 --> 19:33.204 align:start HE IS NOW. 19:33.207 --> 19:34.906 align:start >> EVERYBODY SAID WHEN HE 19:34.909 --> 19:36.007 align:start DECLARED, WHEN HE RODE THE 19:36.010 --> 19:37.508 align:start ESCALATOR DOWN AND SAID I'M 19:37.511 --> 19:39.877 align:start RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, AND HIS 19:39.880 --> 19:40.611 align:start GREAT POLL NUMBERS OUT AT THE 19:40.614 --> 19:42.246 align:start BEGINNING, EVERYBODY SAID IT'S 19:42.249 --> 19:44.082 align:start THE SUMMER, THIS WON'T LAST, 19:44.085 --> 19:45.616 align:start ONCE HE HAS TO START ANSWERING 19:45.619 --> 19:47.118 align:start QUESTIONS IT WILL FADE, HE WON'T 19:47.121 --> 19:49.020 align:start WIN THE IOWA CAUCUS. 19:49.023 --> 19:50.288 align:start THEN HE WON THE IOWA CAUCUS. 19:50.291 --> 19:51.723 align:start HE WON'T WIN SOUTH CAROLINA. 19:51.726 --> 19:55.293 align:start THEN HE WON SOUTH CAROLINA. 19:55.296 --> 19:57.028 align:start ALL OF A SUDDEN HE WENT FROM 19:57.031 --> 19:59.964 align:start ESTABLISHMENT WRITING HIM OFF, 19:59.967 --> 20:01.499 align:start OH, THIS IS JUST -- IT'S THE 20:01.502 --> 20:01.866 align:start SUMMER VACATION, TO A VIABLE 20:01.869 --> 20:03.534 align:start CANDIDATE. 20:03.537 --> 20:05.036 align:start I THINK THE SAME THING IS 20:05.039 --> 20:07.138 align:start HAPPENING, AS JOE ALLUDED TO, ON 20:07.141 --> 20:07.472 align:start THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WITH BERNIE 20:07.475 --> 20:10.074 align:start SANDERS. 20:10.077 --> 20:11.709 align:start DIFFERENT TYPE OF ANGER, BUT IT 20:11.712 --> 20:15.279 align:start IS A DISSATISFACTION WITH THE 20:15.282 --> 20:16.214 align:start STATUS QUO WITHIN THE PARTIES. 20:16.217 --> 20:17.448 align:start HILLARY CLINTON, AND ANY NUMBER 20:17.451 --> 20:17.749 align:start OF PEOPLE IN THE REPUBLICAN 20:17.752 --> 20:19.350 align:start PARTY. 20:19.353 --> 20:20.385 align:start THAT'S WHAT WE HAVE, SIMILAR 20:20.388 --> 20:21.352 align:start IDEAS JUST BEING EXPRESSED IN 20:21.355 --> 20:22.887 align:start VERY DIFFERENT WAYS. 20:22.890 --> 20:24.989 align:start >> JOE, WE'RE HEARING A LOT 20:24.992 --> 20:26.824 align:start ABOUT A CONTESTED CONVENTION. 20:26.827 --> 20:28.026 align:start YOUR LISTENERS, DO THEY 20:28.029 --> 20:30.328 align:start UNDERSTAND IT? 20:30.331 --> 20:30.862 align:start BECAUSE FOR SOME OF US, IT'S 20:30.865 --> 20:34.098 align:start REALLY COMPLEX. 20:34.101 --> 20:36.200 align:start >> IT'S DEEP AND DETAILED. 20:36.203 --> 20:37.869 align:start THE NOMINEE HAS TO GET TO 1237. 20:37.872 --> 20:38.903 align:start IF THEY DON'T GET THERE, IT GOES 20:38.906 --> 20:40.271 align:start TO THE CONVENTION PROCESS. 20:40.274 --> 20:41.773 align:start BUT EVERY PROCESS WE'RE LOOKING 20:41.776 --> 20:44.509 align:start AT IN EVERY STATE, PROPORTIONAL 20:44.512 --> 20:45.343 align:start VERSUS WINNER IN TOTAL, IT LOOKS 20:45.346 --> 20:46.377 align:start LIKE HE'S NOT GOING TO GET TO 20:46.380 --> 20:47.745 align:start THE 1237. 20:47.748 --> 20:49.414 align:start TECHNICALLY THE FIRST VOTE, 20:49.417 --> 20:50.348 align:start DELEGATES ARE HELD AND BOUND TO 20:50.351 --> 20:52.350 align:start THEIR STATE'S VOTERS. 20:52.353 --> 20:53.418 align:start AND THEY WILL VOTE FOR THAT 20:53.421 --> 20:56.254 align:start CANDIDATE THEY'RE REPRESENTING. 20:56.257 --> 20:58.823 align:start THE SECOND VOTE IS WHEN IT GETS 20:58.826 --> 21:01.392 align:start REALLY INTERESTING. 21:01.395 --> 21:02.293 align:start RULE 40-B SAYS YOU HAVE TO HAVE 21:02.296 --> 21:07.932 align:start WON EIGHT STATES TO BE THE NO, 21:07.935 --> 21:08.866 align:start MA'AM FEE. 21:08.869 --> 21:11.269 align:start SOME NOMINEE. 21:11.272 --> 21:12.804 align:start SOME NOMINEE. 21:12.807 --> 21:13.171 align:start >> THEY CAN'T PRODUCE A NEW 21:13.174 --> 21:14.806 align:start CANDIDATE? 21:14.809 --> 21:16.307 align:start >> THAT'S THE INTERESTING THING. 21:16.310 --> 21:17.775 align:start IN THAT RULE VOTE, BEFORE THE 21:17.778 --> 21:19.811 align:start CONVENTION STARTS, THE WEDNESDAY 21:19.814 --> 21:21.245 align:start BEFORE, THE DELEGATES WILL GET 21:21.248 --> 21:21.546 align:start TOGETHER AND APPROVE THE NEW 21:21.549 --> 21:22.380 align:start RULES. 21:22.383 --> 21:22.680 align:start WE'RE ALL TALKING ABOUT THESE 21:22.683 --> 21:23.715 align:start RULES. 21:23.718 --> 21:25.383 align:start THESE ARE THE RULES FROM THE 21:25.386 --> 21:26.417 align:start LAST CONVENTION. 21:26.420 --> 21:29.053 align:start AND A LOT OF PEOPLE SEE THAT 21:29.056 --> 21:30.521 align:start VOTE ON THAT RULE SPECIFICALLY 21:30.524 --> 21:30.822 align:start AS THE FIRST TEST FOR DONALD 21:30.825 --> 21:32.323 align:start TRUMP. 21:32.326 --> 21:33.558 align:start DOES THAT RULE COME IN, DOES IT 21:33.561 --> 21:36.461 align:start GET THROWN OUT? 21:36.464 --> 21:38.363 align:start AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO GIVE A 21:38.366 --> 21:40.498 align:start POSSIBLE LOOK AT HOW THE 21:40.501 --> 21:41.866 align:start DELEGATES, THE PARTY MACHINERY, 21:41.869 --> 21:44.502 align:start FEELS ABOUT DONALD TRUMP AS 21:44.505 --> 21:45.336 align:start THEIR POTENTIAL NOMINEE. 21:45.339 --> 21:47.338 align:start THAT'S THE SOMETHING THE 21:47.341 --> 21:49.574 align:start NETWORKS, THE REPORTERS, WE 21:49.577 --> 21:51.009 align:start DON'T NORMALLY COVER THAT. 21:51.012 --> 21:52.110 align:start I THINK YOU'LL HAVE FULL PRIME 21:52.113 --> 21:53.511 align:start TIME COVERAGE OF THAT BIG TIME 21:53.514 --> 21:54.112 align:start THIS YEAR, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 21:54.115 --> 21:55.213 align:start DECADES. 21:55.216 --> 21:58.016 align:start >> HOW DOES DONALD TRUMP ACCEPT 21:58.019 --> 21:58.349 align:start THIS NEWS THAT HE MAY NOT BE THE 21:58.352 --> 21:59.550 align:start NOMINEE? 21:59.553 --> 22:00.985 align:start >> WELL, SO MANY THINGS HAVE 22:00.988 --> 22:02.620 align:start HAPPENED OVER THE LAST THREE 22:02.623 --> 22:04.689 align:start WEEKS, RIGHT BEFORE WISCONSIN, 22:04.692 --> 22:10.495 align:start THAT I'VE WATCHED CLOSELY. 22:10.498 --> 22:12.530 align:start WE'VE PONTIFICATED ON THE AIR, 22:12.533 --> 22:13.765 align:start WHEN DOES DONALD TRUMP PIVOT. 22:13.768 --> 22:15.233 align:start HE NEVER REALLY DID. 22:15.236 --> 22:17.201 align:start THE ONE THAT I THINK IS A 22:17.204 --> 22:18.903 align:start CRITICAL ERROR IS WHEN HE SAID 22:18.906 --> 22:19.871 align:start IF THE RULES AREN'T CORRECT I'M 22:19.874 --> 22:22.607 align:start GOING TO RUN AS A THIRD PARTY. 22:22.610 --> 22:23.675 align:start THOSE DELEGATES THAT ARE SEATED 22:23.678 --> 22:25.309 align:start IN CLEVELAND ARE THE PARTY OF 22:25.312 --> 22:25.610 align:start THE PARTY, THE HARD CORE OF THE 22:25.613 --> 22:27.478 align:start PARTY. 22:27.481 --> 22:28.680 align:start WHEN YOU START TALKING ABOUT THE 22:28.683 --> 22:31.182 align:start NOMINEE THREATENING TO NOT RUN 22:31.185 --> 22:34.485 align:start AS A REPUBLICAN NOMINEE, THAT'S 22:34.488 --> 22:35.887 align:start A BIG KIND OF FEAR FACTOR FOR A 22:35.890 --> 22:36.954 align:start LOT OF THOSE DELEGATES. 22:36.957 --> 22:38.189 align:start MEANWHILE THE CRUZ CAMPAIGN HAS 22:38.192 --> 22:40.525 align:start BEEN WORKING THE VARIOUS STATES, 22:40.528 --> 22:42.260 align:start INCLUDING ARIZONAS, TRYING TO 22:42.263 --> 22:44.062 align:start SECURE THOSE DELEGATES ON A 22:44.065 --> 22:47.332 align:start SECOND RUN OR A SECOND VOTE. 22:47.335 --> 22:48.333 align:start THAT STRATEGIC COMMENT HE MADE I 22:48.336 --> 22:50.068 align:start REALLY THINK HEARD HIM. 22:50.071 --> 22:51.936 align:start >> WHEN TED CRUZ CAME TO 22:51.939 --> 22:52.270 align:start ARIZONA, HE ONLY WENT TO CERTAIN 22:52.273 --> 22:55.540 align:start PLACES. 22:55.543 --> 22:57.508 align:start DOES HE COME BACK TO TRY TO WOO 22:57.511 --> 22:59.043 align:start THOSE DELEGATES? 22:59.046 --> 23:00.945 align:start >> I DON'T THINK WE'LL 23:00.948 --> 23:02.347 align:start NECESSARILY SEE HIM BACK. 23:02.350 --> 23:03.881 align:start THERE ARE 13 STATES THAT STILL 23:03.884 --> 23:05.183 align:start HAVE A PRIMARY OR CAUCUS LEFT. 23:05.186 --> 23:08.619 align:start THOSE ARE THE DELEGATES THAT 23:08.622 --> 23:09.620 align:start HAVE TO BE SEWED UP INITIALLY. 23:09.623 --> 23:11.689 align:start THESE ADDITIONAL DELEGATES OR 23:11.692 --> 23:14.292 align:start WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOLKS ONCE 23:14.295 --> 23:15.994 align:start THEY ARE IN CLEVELAND AFTER THAT 23:15.997 --> 23:17.628 align:start FIRST VOTE, HE DOESN'T HAVE TO 23:17.631 --> 23:18.997 align:start COME BACK AND DEAL WITH THEM. 23:19.000 --> 23:22.100 align:start HE CAN HAVE STAFF MEMBERS 23:22.103 --> 23:22.934 align:start WORKING AND HIS LOCAL SUPPORTERS 23:22.937 --> 23:24.202 align:start TRYING TO GET INTO THE 23:24.205 --> 23:24.535 align:start DELEGATIONS FOR THE VARIOUS 23:24.538 --> 23:25.636 align:start STATES. 23:25.639 --> 23:27.271 align:start THE CHANCES FOR SEEING A 23:27.274 --> 23:29.240 align:start REPUBLICAN OR A DEMOCRATIC 23:29.243 --> 23:31.943 align:start CANDIDATE BACK HERE AGAIN, EVEN 23:31.946 --> 23:32.243 align:start THROUGH THE GENERAL, ARE PRETTY 23:32.246 --> 23:34.512 align:start SLIM. 23:34.515 --> 23:35.913 align:start WE MIGHT SEE THEM COME THROUGH 23:35.916 --> 23:36.981 align:start PHOENIX, A QUICK STOP ON THE WAY 23:36.984 --> 23:37.348 align:start TO THE WEST COAST OR SOMETHING 23:37.351 --> 23:38.916 align:start LIKE THAT. 23:38.919 --> 23:41.886 align:start BUT THE CHANCES OF SEEING THEM 23:41.889 --> 23:42.353 align:start COME INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS 23:42.356 --> 23:43.688 align:start PRETTY SLIM. 23:43.691 --> 23:44.389 align:start I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE 23:44.392 --> 23:46.691 align:start SURPRISED THAT WEEKEND BEFORE 23:46.694 --> 23:49.694 align:start THE PRIMARY, WE HAD ALMOST EVERY 23:49.697 --> 23:51.362 align:start CANDIDATE, NOT ONLY IN ARIZONA 23:51.365 --> 23:52.563 align:start BUT MAKING MULTIPLE STOPS, 23:52.566 --> 23:52.897 align:start INCLUDING STOPS IN SOUTHERN 23:52.900 --> 23:55.166 align:start ARIZONA. 23:55.169 --> 23:56.601 align:start >> JOE, WHAT WOULD YOU SAY 23:56.604 --> 23:56.968 align:start SOUTHERN ARIZONA THINGS ABOUT 23:56.971 --> 23:59.604 align:start TED CRUZ? 23:59.607 --> 24:03.041 align:start >> MARICOPA COUNTY IS THE CENTER 24:03.044 --> 24:04.242 align:start OF THE REPUBLICAN UNIVERSE IN 24:04.245 --> 24:05.309 align:start ARIZONA, THEY'RE BIG TRUMP AND 24:05.312 --> 24:07.879 align:start CRUZ FANS. 24:07.882 --> 24:10.882 align:start SOUTHERNERS, I'M HEARING MY 24:10.885 --> 24:11.749 align:start HARD-CORE CONSERVATIVES THAT ARE 24:11.752 --> 24:13.484 align:start CONSTITUTIONALISTS REALLY LIKE 24:13.487 --> 24:15.053 align:start TED AND ARE STICKING WITH TED. 24:15.056 --> 24:16.154 align:start THOSE WHO ARE A LITTLE MORE 24:16.157 --> 24:17.321 align:start FRUSTRATED WITH THE PROCESS, 24:17.324 --> 24:19.157 align:start EVEN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE, 24:19.160 --> 24:20.992 align:start ARE SAYING LET'S DO THE CANCER 24:20.995 --> 24:21.826 align:start ANALOGY AND BRING IN SOMEBODY 24:21.829 --> 24:23.461 align:start WHO CAN COMPLETELY CHANGE THIS 24:23.464 --> 24:25.296 align:start THING. 24:25.299 --> 24:26.764 align:start >> DONALD TRUMP IS STARTING TO 24:26.767 --> 24:27.765 align:start SURROUND HIMSELF WITH SOME MORE 24:27.768 --> 24:31.936 align:start POLITICAL FIGURES. 24:31.939 --> 24:32.470 align:start IS HE TAKING THIS A LITTLE MORE 24:32.473 --> 24:33.805 align:start SERIOUSLY? 24:33.808 --> 24:35.073 align:start YOU SAID EARLIER IT WAS A 24:35.076 --> 24:37.108 align:start MISTAKE HE MADE. 24:37.111 --> 24:38.443 align:start IS HE CHANGING HIS TUNE NOW? 24:38.446 --> 24:39.877 align:start >> HE'S CHANGING HIS TUNE 24:39.880 --> 24:44.549 align:start BECAUSE HE'S REALIZED IT'S NOT 24:44.552 --> 24:45.283 align:start JUST ABOUT WINNING THE CAUCUS OR 24:45.286 --> 24:46.617 align:start PRIMARY IN EVERY STATE, THERE'S 24:46.620 --> 24:47.652 align:start A LOT MORE TO IT THAN THAT AND 24:47.655 --> 24:49.320 align:start HE HASN'T HAD PEOPLE AROUND HIM 24:49.323 --> 24:49.620 align:start AND ON THE GROUND WHO PLAY THAT 24:49.623 --> 24:50.955 align:start GAME. 24:50.958 --> 24:52.323 align:start HE'S REALIZED NOW THAT HE'S GOT 24:52.326 --> 24:53.558 align:start TO GET IN THE GAME, THAT CRUZ IS 24:53.561 --> 24:54.826 align:start ALREADY PLAYING THAT GAME, THAT 24:54.829 --> 24:55.893 align:start THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS ALREADY 24:55.896 --> 24:57.595 align:start PLAYING THAT GAME, AND IF HE 24:57.598 --> 24:59.497 align:start WANTS TO LEAD THE REPUBLICAN 24:59.500 --> 25:00.498 align:start PARTY AS THEIR NOMINEE AND 25:00.501 --> 25:02.000 align:start POTENTIALLY THEIR PRESIDENT AND 25:02.003 --> 25:02.867 align:start BE THE STANDARD BEARER, HE'S GOT 25:02.870 --> 25:04.669 align:start TO PLAY THE GAME. 25:04.672 --> 25:06.637 align:start SO HE'S STARTING TO HIRE PEOPLE 25:06.640 --> 25:08.072 align:start AND BRING IN PEOPLE THAT CAN 25:08.075 --> 25:10.074 align:start HELP HIM PLAY THAT GAME. 25:10.077 --> 25:11.142 align:start >> LET'S GO INTO SOME STATE 25:11.145 --> 25:15.680 align:start POLITICS NOW. 25:15.683 --> 25:17.215 align:start PROPOSITION 123, 124, AND THE 25:17.218 --> 25:19.450 align:start STATE SPECIAL ELECTION. 25:19.453 --> 25:22.854 align:start 123, JOE, EVERYONE WANTS IT BUT 25:22.857 --> 25:23.855 align:start IT COMES WITH MAYBE SOME THINGS 25:23.858 --> 25:26.190 align:start ATTACHED TO IT. 25:26.193 --> 25:30.028 align:start >> THE PRO GROUP HAS FUNDED IT, 25:30.031 --> 25:31.195 align:start YOU'LL SEE THE ADS AND FACEBOOK 25:31.198 --> 25:34.132 align:start POSTS COMING TO YOU. 25:34.135 --> 25:35.900 align:start IT SEEMS LIKE THE 123 PRO FOLKS 25:35.903 --> 25:38.503 align:start HAVE THE SCHOOL DISTRICTS, THE 25:38.506 --> 25:39.904 align:start TEACHERS, THE UNIONS, BASED ON 25:39.907 --> 25:41.673 align:start THE ADDITIONAL INCOME BACK TO 25:41.676 --> 25:43.007 align:start THE K-12 SYSTEM. 25:43.010 --> 25:43.341 align:start IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO 25:43.344 --> 25:45.410 align:start PASS. 25:45.413 --> 25:46.711 align:start >> AND 124, THIS DEALS WITH A 25:46.714 --> 25:47.045 align:start THE PENSION SYSTEM HERE IN 25:47.048 --> 25:48.546 align:start ARIZONA. 25:48.549 --> 25:50.381 align:start >> THE PENSION SYSTEM IN ARIZONA 25:50.384 --> 25:51.783 align:start FOR PUBLIC EMPLOYEES. 25:51.786 --> 25:54.252 align:start AND THAT INCLUDES FIREFIGHTERS 25:54.255 --> 25:55.586 align:start AND POLICE OFFICERS, STATE 25:55.589 --> 25:57.121 align:start WORKERS, IS UNDERFUNDED. 25:57.124 --> 25:57.588 align:start THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM OF 25:57.591 --> 25:58.623 align:start ARIZONA. 25:58.626 --> 25:59.090 align:start THIS IS TRUE ALL AROUND THE 25:59.093 --> 26:01.259 align:start COUNTRY. 26:01.262 --> 26:01.592 align:start MANY, MANY STATES HAVE THIS 26:01.595 --> 26:04.062 align:start PROBLEM. 26:04.065 --> 26:05.396 align:start SO 124 STARTS THE FIX OF THAT. 26:05.399 --> 26:07.799 align:start IT DEALS SPECIFICALLY WITH 26:07.802 --> 26:08.733 align:start PUBLIC SAFETY WORKERS. 26:08.736 --> 26:11.369 align:start FIREFIGHTERS, POLICE OFFICERS, 26:11.372 --> 26:13.538 align:start FOLKS LIKE THAT. 26:13.541 --> 26:15.273 align:start AND IT CHANGES -- 124 DEALS WITH 26:15.276 --> 26:18.910 align:start THE COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENTS 26:18.913 --> 26:19.277 align:start FOR PEOPLE TAKING THEIR 26:19.280 --> 26:20.545 align:start PENSIONS. 26:20.548 --> 26:23.114 align:start THERE ARE UNDERLYING BILLS THAT 26:23.117 --> 26:24.182 align:start DID NOT NEED VOTER APPROVAL THAT 26:24.185 --> 26:24.849 align:start CHANGED CONTRIBUTION RATES AND 26:24.852 --> 26:25.616 align:start THINGS LIKE THAT FOR THOSE 26:25.619 --> 26:27.151 align:start COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. 26:27.154 --> 26:28.653 align:start IT'S ALL AN ATTEMPT TO START 26:28.656 --> 26:28.986 align:start GETTING MONEY BACK IN THAT 26:28.989 --> 26:30.855 align:start SYSTEM. 26:30.858 --> 26:32.123 align:start RIGHT NOW THEY COULD PAY, IF 26:32.126 --> 26:33.291 align:start EVERYBODY RETIRED ALL AT ONCE, 26:33.294 --> 26:35.760 align:start THERE'S ENOUGH MONEY THERE FOR 26:35.763 --> 26:37.595 align:start 50% OF THE PEOPLE, GIVE OR TAKE. 26:37.598 --> 26:37.895 align:start HOWEVER, EVERYBODY HAS TO BE 26:37.898 --> 26:40.231 align:start PAID. 26:40.234 --> 26:41.466 align:start AND LIKE I SAID, THIS IS NOT AN 26:41.469 --> 26:42.567 align:start ARIZONA-SPECIFIC PROBLEM. 26:42.570 --> 26:43.568 align:start THIS IS COUNTIES, CITIES, 26:43.571 --> 26:45.737 align:start STATES, ALL OVER THE COUNTRY 26:45.740 --> 26:47.238 align:start HAVE THIS PROBLEM. 26:47.241 --> 26:50.041 align:start >> JOE, THIS SORT OF THING HAS 26:50.044 --> 26:50.775 align:start TO HAPPEN TO KEEP FROM 26:50.778 --> 26:52.643 align:start BANKRUPTING OUR STATE'S REVENUE? 26:52.646 --> 26:53.911 align:start >> SO YOU LOOK AT PUERTO RICO 26:53.914 --> 26:56.381 align:start GOING THROUGH THIS RIGHT NOW, 26:56.384 --> 26:59.050 align:start THEY HAD TO REFINANCE. 26:59.053 --> 27:01.686 align:start PROMISES HAD BEEN MADE EARLY ON, 27:01.689 --> 27:02.353 align:start IN PRIOR COUNCILS AND COUNTY 27:02.356 --> 27:03.087 align:start SUPERVISORS AND STATE 27:03.090 --> 27:04.889 align:start LEGISLATURES THAT THEY'RE NOW 27:04.892 --> 27:05.957 align:start HAVING TO COME TO ROOST WITH 27:05.960 --> 27:07.258 align:start PAIN. 27:07.261 --> 27:09.694 align:start ARTIFICIALLY LOW INTEREST RATES 27:09.697 --> 27:10.028 align:start ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING 27:10.031 --> 27:12.163 align:start RETURN. 27:12.166 --> 27:14.632 align:start YOU START PUTTING ALL THOSE 27:14.635 --> 27:16.467 align:start FORMULAS TOGETHER, THE MATH, AS 27:16.470 --> 27:19.771 align:start CHRIS SAID, DOESN'T ADD UP. 27:19.774 --> 27:20.505 align:start >> THE BUDGET, WE'RE STILL 27:20.508 --> 27:21.973 align:start WAITING ON THAT? 27:21.976 --> 27:22.273 align:start >> WE THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE THIS 27:22.276 --> 27:25.843 align:start WEEK. 27:25.846 --> 27:26.678 align:start WE'RE IN TALKS OR MOVING, 27:26.681 --> 27:28.446 align:start DEFINITELY, BUT WE HAVEN'T SEEN 27:28.449 --> 27:30.581 align:start A LOT POP UP ON THE FLOOR, BIG 27:30.584 --> 27:32.684 align:start PUBLIC TALKS YET. 27:32.687 --> 27:33.518 align:start BUT IT SHOULD BE COMING SOON. 27:33.521 --> 27:35.853 align:start STATE LAWMAKERS CAN'T RAISE 27:35.856 --> 27:36.788 align:start MONEY FOR THEIR REELECTION AS 27:36.791 --> 27:39.657 align:start LONG AS THEY'RE IN SESSION. 27:39.660 --> 27:40.391 align:start >> CHRISTOPHER, THANK YOU, JOE 27:40.394 --> 27:41.826 align:start HIGGINS, THANK YOU SO MUCH AND 27:41.829 --> 27:43.027 align:start WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. 27:43.030 --> 27:43.594 align:start THAT'S OUR PROGRAM HERE AT 27:43.597 --> 27:45.530 align:start ARIZONA PUBLIC MEDIA.