>>> DELEGATES.
CONTESTED CONVENTION.
HOW IT ALL WORKS.
>> IT WILL BE LIKELY YOU'LL BE
DOWN TO FISTFIGHTED AND HAND TO
HAND COMBAT, BECAUSE THEY'LL BE
SCRAPING FOR EVERY DELEGATE THAT
THEY CAN FIND.
>> AN UNUSUAL PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR VOTERS.
>> PEOPLE ARE MORE TIRED OF
THEIR OWN PARTY THAN WE'VE SEEN
BEFORE.
THERE'S A LOT OF NEGATIVE
FEELINGS TOWARD THE PARTY
SYSTEM.
PEOPLE WANT SOMETHING DIFFERENT.
>> PLUS A BREAKDOWN OF ARIZONA'S
SPECIAL ELECTION.
THIS IS "ARIZONA WEEK."
>>> HELLO AND THANKS FOR JOINING
US.
THIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A UNIQUE ONE,
AND ONE THAT COULD PRESENT SOME
SITUATIONS AMERICAN VOTERS HAVE
NOT SEEN IN DECADES.
FOR MORE I'M JOINED BY A
POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES, ARE
THEY THAT VALUABLE AND
IMPORTANT?
WHAT DO THEY TELL US?
>> THEY TELL US WHO IS POPULAR
IN THE STATE AND IT WILL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW
DELEGATES WILL VOTE ONCE THEY
GET TO THE CONVENTION.
>> AND DELEGATES VERSUS SUPER
DELEGATES, HOW POWERFUL ARE THEY
REALLY?
>> DELEGATES, GENERALLY WE'RE
TALKING ABOUT PLEDGED DELEGATES,
CHOSEN AS A RESULT OF A CAUCUS.
THEY GENERALLY HAVE TO SUPPORT
THE CANDIDATE THEY'RE TIED TO,
AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST VOTE IN
THE CONVENTION.
DELEGATES WERE CREATED IN THE
1980s TO GIVE A VOICE TO THE
PARTY LEADERS, THE STATE PARTY
CHAIRS, AND ELECTED OFFICIALS.
AND THEY REPRESENT A LITTLE LESS
THAN 20% OF THE DEMOCRATIC
DELEGATES.
AND THEY'RE FREE TO VOTE FOR
WHOEVER THEY WANT.
>> ARE THESE REAL MOVERS OR
SHAKERS WITHIN THE PARTY OR JUST
PEOPLE WHO HAPPEN TO HAVE BEEN
CHOSEN?
>> I GUESS YOU COULD CALL THEM
MOVERS AND SHAKERS.
THEY'RE MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE OF
REPRESENTATIVES, SENATORS,
GOVERNORS.
THEY'RE THE TOP PARTY PEOPLE IN
THE STATE.
>> OKAY.
WHY DO SOME STATES HAVE CAUCUSES
AND OTHERS DO NOT?
>> IT'S UP TO THE STATES TO
CHOOSE WHO THEY WANT.
THERE'S 15 STATES WHO USUALLY DO
CAUCUSES.
THEY'RE USUALLY SMALLER STATES.
THE PEOPLE WHO SUPPORT CAUCUSES,
THEY SAY IT'S A GRASSROOTS
EFFORT.
PEOPLE COME OUT TO THEIR
COMMUNITY MEETING, THEY GET TO
TALK TO THEIR NEIGHBORS, THEY
GET TO, YOU KNOW, BE
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE
PARTICIPATION AND SHOW THEIR
SUPPORT.
BUT IT'S ALSO A COMPLEX PROCESS,
BECAUSE IT'S JUST THE FIRST
STEP.
THE PEOPLE WHO ARE SELECTED AT
THE CAUCUS LEVEL THEN GO TO A
COUNTY CONVENTION OR A
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
CONVENTION WHERE THE DELEGATES
FOR THE NATIONAL CONVENTION ARE
CHOSEN.
THERE'S ALSO A STATE CONVENTION
WHERE SOME MORE OF THE NATIONAL
DELEGATES ARE CHOSEN.
IT'S A COMPLEX PROCESS THAT
PLAYS OUT OVER SEVERAL MONTHS,
SOMETIMES.
>> WE'RE HEARING A LOT ABOUT A
CONTESTED CONVENTION, THE
POSSIBILITY OF ONE ON THE
REPUBLICAN SIDE OF THINGS.
HAVE WE SEEN THAT, HAVE AMERICAN
VOTERS SEEN THAT BEFORE IN THE
PAST?
>> NOT SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE
20th CENTURY.
SO THE LAST TIME A REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION WENT TO MORE THAN ONE
BALLOT WAS IN 1948.
DEMOCRATS IN 1952 HAD MORE THAN
ONE BALLOT.
>> WHAT DOES THAT REALLY MEAN?
THAT THE ESTABLISHMENT DIDN'T
GET WHO THEY WANTED?
>> NOT IN THOSE CASES.
SO, YOU KNOW, DURING THAT TIME
THERE WASN'T VERY MANY
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES.
MANY OF THE CONVENTION DELEGATES
WENT TO THE CONVENTION WITHOUT
ANY STATED PARTICULAR LOYALTIES.
SO IT WAS A MUCH DIFFERENT ERA.
MANY TIMES CANDIDATES DIDN'T
EVEN RUN IN PRIMARIES DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD.
AND SOMETIMES THERE WERE SOME
STATE PARTY BOSSES STILL AROUND
WHO COULD NEGOTIATE SUPPORT.
SO THEY WERE VERY TRADITIONAL
CANDIDATES WHO WERE RUNNING.
YOU DON'T HAVE THAT TODAY, IN
TERMS OF THE DELEGATES ARE
COMMITTEE ARE A CANDIDATE, AT
LEAST ON THE FIRST ROUND.
>> IN THE CASE OF THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY, THAT'S WHERE WE'RE
HEARING THE CONTESTED CONVENTION
MAY BE, DELEGATES ARE COMING IN
EXPECTED TO VOTE A CERTAIN WAY,
SUDDENLY THEY GO A DIFFERENT
DIRECTION, OR THE PARTY SAYS
HE'S NOT THE PERSON TO REPRESENT
US AND I'M REFERRING TO DONALD
TRUMP, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT WE'RE
HEARING.
>> ON THE FIRST ROUND OF VOTING,
THE DELEGATES HAVE TO VOTE FOR
THE CANDIDATE THAT THEY WERE
SUPPOSED TO DO SO.
THE SECOND ROUND, IT DEPENDS ON
THE STATE LAWS, BUT ON THE
SECOND ROUND, I THINK IT'S
AROUND 80% ARE THEN FREED UP.
AND THEY CAN VOTE FOR WHICHEVER
CANDIDATE THEY WANT.
AND SO IT MAY BE, YOU KNOW,
SOMEONE WHO IS A TRUMP VOTER ON
THE FIRST ROUND, IN THE SECOND
ROUND MIGHT DECIDE TO VOTE FOR
CRUZ.
>> WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN THAT
FIRST AND SECOND ROUND?
WHAT HAS CHANGED HIS OR HER
MIND?
>> WELL, THE DELEGATES ARE
ACTUALLY CHOSEN AFTER THE EVENT.
AND SOME OF THE DELEGATES WHO
ARE BEING CHOSEN ARE, AGAIN,
LOCAL PARTY ACTIVISTS WHO MAY
HAVE DIFFERENT LOYALTIES.
AND SO THEY'RE BOUND ON THE
FIRST ROUND OF VOTING.
BUT IN THE SECOND ROUND OF
VOTING, MAYBE SOME OTHER
PREFERENCES WILL COME OUT.
AND TED CRUZ HAS ALSO BEEN OUT
THERE COURTING THEM ALREADY,
TALKING TO THEM AND TRYING TO
CONVINCE THEM IF IT GOES TO A
SECOND BALLOT, THAT THEY MIGHT
SUPPORT HIM INSTEAD.
>> ARE LOBBYISTS PLAYING A ROLE
IN THAT CASE?
>> NOT SO MUCH THE LOBBYISTS,
IT'S THE CANDIDATE AND THEIR
ORGANIZATIONS TRYING TO TALK TO
PEOPLE.
CRUZ IS BETTER ORGANIZED AT THIS
THAN TRUMP IS RIGHT NOW.
>> THE ARIZONA REPUBLICAN
CONVENTION COMING UP AT THE END
OF APRIL, WHAT DOES THAT
TYPICALLY ENTAIL?
>> THEY'LL BE CHOOSING THE
DELEGATES THAT WILL GO TO A
NATIONAL CONVENTION FOR THE
STATE OF ARIZONA.
THEM ALL BE BOUND TO VOTE FOR
TRUMP ON THE FIRST BALLOT.
BUT AGAIN, WHAT HAPPENS ON THE
SECOND BALLOT IS ANYBODY'S
GUESS.
>> WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY, FOR EXAMPLE,
PICKING AN ENTIRELY NEW
CANDIDATE ALTOGETHER?
>> THAT'S LESS LIKELY THAN
HAVING A BATTLE BETWEEN TRUMP
AND CRUZ AND MAYBE KASICH.
THERE IS SOME REPUBLICAN RULES
RIGHT NOW THAT SORT OF RESTRICT
WHO CAN BE PUT INTO NOMINATION.
THEY HAVE TO HAVE WON EIGHT
STATES, ACTUALLY.
SO THEY WOULD HAVE TO CHANGE
THAT RULE BEFORE THE CONVENTION
STARTED.
>> SO THIS CAMPAIGN OR THIS
ELECTION WILL END UP MAYBE
FUDGING SOME OF THE RULES IN
SOME WAY?
>> WELL, THERE IS A RULES
COMMITTEE, AND IT GETS TO MAKE
SOME PRELIMINARY DECISIONS
BEFORE THE CONVENTION STARTS,
AND WHETHER OR NOT THE
CONVENTION WOULD ADOPT THOSE,
AGAIN, IS SOMETHING THAT MIGHT
TELL YOU HOW CONTENTIOUS THE
REPUBLICAN CONVENTION ALREADY.
>> CERTAINLY ONE FOR THE HISTORY
BOOKS.
>> YES.
>> DOCTOR, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
YOUR TIME.
>>> AS YOU HEARD BARBARA
MENTION, THE RULES CAN CHANGE.
BUT WILL THEY?
FOR MORE ON THAT I'M JOINED BY
AN ARIZONA REPUBLICAN
COMMITTEEMAN.
WILL THE RULES CHANGE?
WE KNOW THEY CAN, BUT WHAT WILL
WE SEE?
>> THEY COULD.
THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF TALK ABOUT
RULE 40-B, THE THRESHOLD THAT
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES HAVE TO
MEET.
I DOUBT THAT THAT'S GOING TO BE
CHANGED PRIOR TO THE CONVENTION,
BECAUSE THE TWO CANDIDATES WHO
HAVE THE GREATEST NUMBER OF
DELEGATES TO THEIR CREDIT SO
FAR, THEY'RE GOING TO BE MEET
THE EIGHT STATES.
NOBODY ELSE WILL GOING INTO THE
CONVENTION.
THE GREATEST NUMBER OF PEOPLE,
WHETHER IT'S IN THE STANDING
COMMITTEE ON RULES OR THE
CONVENTION RULES COMMITTEE,
THEY'RE ALL GOING TO BE TRUMP OR
CRUZ SUPPORTERS.
SO THE CHANCES OF 40-B BEING
CHANGED ARE VERY, VERY SLIM
GOING INTO THE CONVENTION.
THE OTHER RULE BEING TALKED
ABOUT, AND THERE WILL BE AN
AMENDMENT NEXT WEEK, WILL HAVE
TO DO WITH THE RULES OF THE
CONVENTION.
WILL WE CONTINUE TO USE THE U.S.
HOUSE RULES, WHICH HAVE BEEN THE
PREVAILING RULE USED ON THE
CONVENTION FLOOR IN BOTH THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY AS WELL AS THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY SINCE 1860, OR
WILL WE GO TO A FORMAT THAT IS
MOSTLY USED IN ORGANIZATIONAL
MEETINGS, WHICH IS ROBERT'S
RULES OF ORDER?
ROBERT'S RULES OF ORDER WILL
PROVIDE A LOT MORE DELEGATE
EMPOWERMENT AS OPPOSED TO THE
HOUSE RULES WHICH PROVIDED A
CONCENTRATION OF POWER IN THE
CHAIR OF THE CONVENTION.
THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF
DISAGREEMENT ON THAT OVER THE
PAST CONVENTIONS OVER THE PAST
FOUR YEARS.
WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG
ATTEMPT -- IT DEPENDS IF THE
TRUMP AND CRUZ CAMPAIGNS GET
INVOLVED IN WANTING TO MAKE THAT
CHANGE.
IF THEY DO, THERE MAY VERY WELL
BE A CHANGE NEXT WEEK THAT
OCCURS.
AND OUR PACKAGE AT THE STANDING
RULES COMMITTEE WILL BE
PRESENTED TO THE RNC AS A WHOLE
WHEN WE MEET THE WEEK BEFORE THE
NATIONAL CONVENTION IN JULY.
AND THEN OUR PACKAGE GETS TURNED
OVER TO THE CONVENTION RULES,
AND THEY MAKE THE FINAL
DECISIONS THAT GO INTO THE
CONVENTION.
THE INTERESTING THING IS FROM
THE VERY START, WHETHER IT'S
SOMEBODY ELECTED AS A NATIONAL
COMMITTEE PERSON, STATE PARTY
CHAIRMAN, A DELEGATE TO THE
NATIONAL CONVENTION, THESE ARE
ALL PEOPLE THAT GOT TO THE PLACE
TO VOTE ON THESE THINGS BECAUSE
OTHER PEOPLE VOTED FOR THEM.
THOSE 24, ALMOST 2500 DELEGATES
ON THE CONVENTION FLOOR IN
CLEVELAND, WHATEVER HAPPENS IN
CLEVELAND, AND WHATEVER HAPPENS
IN PHILADELPHIA FOR THE
DEMOCRATS, ALL DECIDED ON THE
CONVENTION FLOOR.
THE DAYS OF SMOKE-FILLED ROOMS
AND SOMEBODY SAYING WE WANT
HARVEY TO BE OUR CANDIDATE,
THOSE DAYS ARE OVER.
THERE'S NOBODY THAT HAS THE SORT
OF POLITICAL UMPH TO PROPEL A
CANDIDATE.
IT'S POPULAR SUPPORT.
WE'VE SEEN THAT.
THERE'S BEEN MILLIONS AND
MILLIONS MORE VOTES, BOTH ON THE
REPUBLICAN AND THE DEMOCRATIC
SIDE, CAST IN THESE PRIMARIES SO
FAR.
VERY MUCH EMPOWERS VOTERS, VERY
MUCH EMPOWERS DELEGATES AT THESE
CONVENTIONS.
>> YOU'RE A DELEGATE.
WHAT ARE THESE CONVENTIONS LIKE.
IT CAN GET NASTY, IT WILL GET
NASTY?
>> BY THE TIME WE GET TO
CLEVELAND, PARTICULARLY IF THE
TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF 1237 DELEGATES, IT'S LIKELY
YOU'LL BE DOWN TO FIST FIGHTING
AND HAND TO HAND COMBAT, BECAUSE
THEY'LL BE SCRAPING FOR EVERY
DELEGATE THAT THEY CAN FIND.
IF DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T ACHIEVE
1237 ON THE FIRST BALLOT, IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR HIM.
IF IT GOES TO A MULTI-BALLOT
CONVENTION, AND I'M NOT SURE
IT'S GOING THAT WAY, BUT IF IT
GOES TO A MULTIBALLOT
CONVENTION, THE SECOND VOTE WILL
BE MORE CRUCIAL FOR CRUZ THAN
TRUMP, BECAUSE CRUZ IS REALLY
GOING TO HAVE TO UP HIS NUMBERS.
HE MAY BE 300 OR 400 DELEGATES
BOTH BEHIND TRUMP GOING INTO THE
CONVENTION.
IT WILL BE A VERYYNAMIC TO SEE
TRUMP SUPPORTERS FALL BY THE
WAYSIDE, ONCE THEY'RE UNBOUND
AND CAN VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE,
WHETHER THEY CONTINUE VOTING FOR
TRUMP OR IF THEY SWITCH OVER TO
CRUZ.
AND THEY'LL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY
TWO CANDIDATES WHOSE NAMES WILL
BE PLACED INTO NOMINATION, AT
LEAST COMMON WISDOM TODAY.
>> DONALD TRUMP IS NOT
AFFILIATED WITH THE REPUBLICAN
NATIONAL COMMITTEE?
>> NO, HE'S NEVER APPEARED IN
FRONT OF US.
I HAVEN'T MET HIM.
MOST ALL OF US HAVE MET ALL OF
THE OTHER MEN AND WOMEN WHO WERE
CANDIDATE IN THIS RACE.
>> HOW VIABLE A CANDIDATE IS HE
WITHIN THE PARTY?
>> WELL, WITHIN THE PARTY,
MEANING REPUBLICAN VOTERS, HE'S
PROBABLY VERY VIABLE.
HE'S WON MILLIONS AND MILLIONS
OF VOTES.
HE'S WON THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONTESTS AROUND THE COUNTRY.
BUT IT'S NOT A MATTER OF WHO
GETS THE MOST VOTES OVERALL.
IT'S NOT A MATTER OF WHO WINS
THE MOST.
IT'S DELEGATE COUNT.
SOME OF THAT IS PREORDAINED BY
STATE STATUTE OR PARTY RULES.
AND SOME OF THAT, WHERE THERE
ARE UNBOUND CANDIDATES, WE KNOW
IN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA,
IN COLORADO, THERE'S STORIES,
YOU KNOW, WHERE UNBOUND
CANDIDATES ARE BEING WOOED BY
BOTH SIDES.
THE CRUZ PEOPLE APPEAR TO HAVE A
BETTER SENSE OF HOW THE RNC
WORKS, DELEGATE MATH AND SO ON.
MR. TRUMP JUST HIRED RICK WILY
WHO WORKED FOR SCOTT WALKER.
SO I PREDICT THAT MR. TRUMP'S
DELEGATE MATHEMATICS AND HIS
ABILITY TO OPERATE BETWEEN NOW
AND CONVENTION TIME IN JULY IS
GOING TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.
WILY KNOWS THE RNC VERY WELL.
>> IS HE TAPPING INTO SOMETHING
THAT NO ONE'S BEEN ABLE TO
BEFORE?
>> DONALD TRUMP PROBABLY
UNDERSTANDS MEDIA DYNAMICS
BETTER THAN ANYBODY ELSE, HAVING
BEEN A TELEVISION PERSONALITY.
HE'S REALLY BEEN A NATIONAL
PERSONALITY, WHEN YOU GO BACK
PROBABLY 25 YEARS, IF YOU
REMEMBER WHEN HE USED TO COME TO
THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
BASKETBALL GAMES, THE GAMES
WOULD STOP WHEN HE WOULD BE WITH
A FRIEND OF HIS DOWN AT CENTER
COURT.
HE HAS THAT KIND OF MAGNETISM AS
AN INDIVIDUAL.
HE'S A VERY INTERESTING FELLOW.
>> WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT
VOTERS?
>> WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT
VOTERS?
THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
I THINK WHAT IT SAYS ABOUT
VOTERS TODAY IS THEY'RE LOOKING
FOR A LEADER.
THE SAME WAY WE WERE LOOKING FOR
A LEADER IN 2008.
BARACK OBAMA WAS THAT LEADER
THAT AMERICANS FELT COULD
PROVIDE HOPE AND CHANGE.
WHAT HOPE AND CHANGE MEANS IN
2016 MAY LOOK A LITTLE DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT IT DID IN 2008.
BUT AS MY FRIENDS HAVE TOLD ME,
AS I'VE LEARNED IN THE BUSINESS,
THE CENTER IS ALWAYS MOVING IN A
POLITICAL DYNAMIC.
AND IT JUST DEPENDS ON WHICH
DIRECTION IT'S FLOWING.
I THINK WE'VE BEEN A
CENTER-RIGHT COUNTRY FOR A LONG
TIME.
WE'RE PROBABLY MORE MIDDLE
CENTER TODAY, AND OVER THE PAST
EIGHT YEARS.
IT DEPENDS ON HOPES, FEARS,
WORLD EVENTS, NATIONAL SECURITY
IS GOING TO BE A BIG ISSUE, THE
ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE A BIG
ISSUE.
BUT THE PERSONAL MAGNETISM OF
WHOEVER THE NOMINEE IS, IS GOING
TO BE A BIG DEAL.
IF IT'S MRS. CLINTON WHO IS THE
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE, HER
NEGATIVES ARE VERY HIGH.
THE SAME WAY THAT DONALD TRUMP'S
NEGATIVES ARE VERY HIGH.
THIS COULD BE AN ELECTION,
LORRAINE, WERE FEWER PEOPLE TURN
OUT IN 2016 THAN MAYBE THEY DID
IN 2008.
>> AND WHAT DOES THIS ELECTION
TELL US ABOUT VOTERS?
AN ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AT THE U
OF A SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY.
THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
>> IT'S GREAT TO BE HERE.
>> THIS IS A UNIQUE ELECTION.
>> EXCITING.
>> AND SOME PEOPLE THINK, KIND
OF COMPLICATED.
>> YES.
>> WHAT DOES IT TELL US ABOUT
THE VOTERS OUT THERE?
>> I'VE BEEN FINDING IN MY
RESEARCH THAT AMERICAN VOTERS
ARE TIRED OF BOTH PARTIES.
PEOPLE ARE MORE TIRED OF THEIR
OWN PARTY THAN WE'VE SEEN
BEFORE.
SO THERE'S A LOT OF NEGATIVE
FEELINGS TOWARD THE PARTY
SYSTEM.
PEOPLE WANT SOMETHING DIFFERENT,
SOMEONE WHO IS NOT AFFILIATED
WITH EITHER PARTY.
>> YOU JUST WROTE A BOOK ABOUT
INDEPENDENTS.
DOES THAT MEAN BERNIE SANDERS
AND DONALD TRUMP TEND TO BE MORE
LIKE AN INDEPENDENT AS OPPOSED
TO THE TRADITIONAL PARTIES
THEY'RE ASSOCIATED WITH?
>> WHAT MY CO-AUTHOR AND I FOUND
IS, WHAT DRIVES PEOPLE TO
IDENTIFY AS INDEPENDENT IS THE
SAME MOTIVATION THAT DRIVES THEM
TO PULL AWAY FROM POLITICS
ALTOGETHER.
THEY DON'T WANT TO ASSOCIATE
WITH A PARTY IN PUBLIC.
THEY DON'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT
THEIR PREFERRED PARTY IN SOCIAL
SITUATIONS.
DONALD TRUMP AND BERNIE SANDERS
ALLOW PEOPLE TO SUPPORT A
CANDIDATE WHO IS NOT
TRADITIONALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
EITHER PARTY.
BERNIE SANDERS IS LEGITIMATELY
AN INDEPENDENT.
AND DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T HAVE A
REAL HISTORY OF BEING A DEMOCRAT
OR A REPUBLICAN.
THEY SORT OF GIVE VOTERS AN OUT.
>> THESE TWO MEN SEEM TO TALK
NOT LIKE MOST POLITICIANS.
>> YES, THAT'S RIGHT.
>> DOES THAT GO A LONG WAY WITH
THE VOTERS?
>> I THINK IT DOES.
PEOPLE DON'T REALLY BELIEVE
CANDIDATES ANYMORE, THEY DON'T
TRUST WHAT THEY'RE SAYING.
THE FACT THAT DONALD TRUMP MAKES
GRANDIOSE PROMISES AND BERNIE
SANDERS DOES THE SAME, DOESN'T
BOTHER PEOPLE.
THEY DON'T BELIEVE WHAT THE
OTHER GUYS ARE SAYING ANYWAY.
THEY WANT TO KNOW WHAT ARE THEIR
PRIORITIES, WHERE ARE THEY
PLACING THEIR EMPHASIS.
THE FACT THAT THEIR POLICIES MAY
OR MAY NOT COME TO FRUITION
DOESN'T SEEM TO BE BOTHERING
THEIR SUPPORTERS AT ALL.
>> YOU SAID THIS IS AN EXCITING
ELECTION.
FOR SOME PEOPLE IT IS.
WOULDN'T YOU SAY IT'S ALSO
GAINING SOME GROUND, SOME
ATTENTION WITH PEOPLE WHO DON'T
NORMALLY PAY ATTENTION TO
NATIONAL ELECTIONS?
>> YEAH, I MEAN, IT'S CERTAINLY
BRINGING OUT VOTERS WHO HAVE NOT
VOTED BEFORE.
THE MEDIA IS CAPTURING A LOT OF
ATTENTION FROM PEOPLE WHO DIDN'T
USUALLY WATCH THE NEWS BEFORE.
AND OF COURSE A LOT OF PEOPLE
ARE TALKING ABOUT THE AMERICAN
ELECTION IN OTHER COUNTRIES.
IT COULD BE FOR GOOD REASONS OR
NOT GREAT REASONS.
ULTIMATELY THE ENGAGEMENT WITH
POLITICS I THINK IS A GOOD
THING.
>> HOW DOES THE MEDIA PLAY A
ROLE IN THIS DISCUSSION?
>> THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF TALK
ABOUT HOW THE MEDIA HAS BEEN
GIVING DONALD TRUMP A LOT OF
FREE MEDIA, GIVING HIM A LOT OF
COVERAGE, A LOT OF ATTENTION.
AND THE CANDIDATES CAN IN MANY
WAYS DETERMINE HOW MUCH FREE
MEDIA THEY GET.
DONALD TRUMP DOES NOT SAY NO TO
AN INTERVIEW.
HE'S CALLING INTO THE MEDIA
SHOWS, DOING PHONE INTERVIEWS ON
"MEET THE PRESS."
TED CRUZ HAS BEEN KNOW MORE I
COULDN'T SAYLY UNWILLING TO MEET
NOTORIOUSLY UNWILLING TO MEET
WITH THE MEDIA.
DONALD TRUMP IS GETTING THE MOST
ATTENTION BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT HE
WANTS.
HE HAS SAID NEGATIVE ATTENTION
IS BETTER THAN NO ATTENTION AT
ALL.
>> HOW DOES THIS ELECTION PLAY
OUT IN THEHISTORY BOOKS?
>> EVERY ELECTION PEOPLE SAY,
THIS MUST BE A GREAT TIME TO BE
A POLITICAL SCIENTIST.
BUT THIS ELECTION IS REALLY A
GREAT TIME TO BE A POLITICAL
SCIENTIST, ABSOLUTELY
FASCINATING.
IT WILL BE A BIG ELECTION FOR
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
THEY HAVE TO CHANGE, THEY HAVE
TO FIGURE OUT WHAT EXACTLY IS
GOING ON WITHIN THE PARTY.
THERE'S SUCH A LACK OF UNITY.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS AS WELL,
BERNIE SANDERS IS BRINGING IN
ALL SORTS OF ISSUES THAT CLINTON
PROBABLY WASN'T PREPARED TO TALK
ABOUT TO THE EXTENT SHE'S BEING
FORCED TO.
THIS ELECTION IS SORT OF A
TURNING POINT IN TERMS OF
REPRIORITIZING FOR BOTH.
>> WONDERFUL.
THANK YOU SO MUCH.
>> THANK YOU.
>>> THE BUZZ NOW.
I'M JOINED BY MY COLLEAGUE HERE
AT "THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC," AND
CHRISTOPHER CONOVER, AND A NEW
GUEST, JOE HIGGINS.
JOE, WELCOME.
CHRISTOPHER, NICE TO HAVE YOU
BACK.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THE
PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY.
JOE, WHAT ARE YOUR LISTENERS
WANTING IN THE NEXT PRESIDENT?
>> WE LISTEN TO THIS DAY BY DAY,
PLAY BY LAY.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR,
THERE WERE 17 CANDIDATES, EVERY
SHAPE, FLAVOR, OR COLOR THAT YOU
COULD PICK.
IN THE END WE'RE WHITTLED DOWN
TO TWO, POSSIBLY THREE WITH
KASICH STILL IN THERE.
EARLY ON WITH THE TRUMP
PHENOMENON STARTED MOVING ALONG,
I REACHED OUT TO A COUPLE OF
FOLKS I RESPECT IN THE
CONSERVATIVE WORLD, THE
REPUBLICAN WORLD, AND SAID,
GOSH, WHAT AM I MISSING, WHAT IS
IT DID DONALD?
THE BEST ANALOGY I HEARD WAS,
THAT'S CANCER IN D.C. AND DONALD
TRUMP IS THE CHEMOTHERAPY.
WE KNOW HE'LL KILL SOME HEALTHY
CELLS, WE HOPE HE DOESN'T KILL
THE HOST, BUT HE'S GOING TO GET
RID OF THE CANCER.
KIND OF AN INTERESTING ANALOGY.
>> BERNIE SANDERS IS GIVING
HILLARY CLINTON A RUN FOR HER
MONEY.
>> THE FAR RIGHT AND FAR LEFT
ARE VERY ANGRY.
IT HAS TO DO A LOT WITH
OBAMACARE BILLS HITTING PEOPLE'S
KITCHEN TABLES.
REAL WORLD JOBS HAVE BEEN WEAK
IN THE RECESSION.
PEOPLE ARE FRUSTRATED.
>> WE'VE HEARD BEFORE WHAT YOU
JUST SAID, DONALD TRUMP IS
TAPPING INTO THE ANXIETY PEOPLE
HAVE.
BUT HOW FAR WILL IT GO?
IN JUNE HE WASN'T MAYBE A VIABLE
CANDIDATE.
HE IS NOW.
>> EVERYBODY SAID WHEN HE
DECLARED, WHEN HE RODE THE
ESCALATOR DOWN AND SAID I'M
RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, AND HIS
GREAT POLL NUMBERS OUT AT THE
BEGINNING, EVERYBODY SAID IT'S
THE SUMMER, THIS WON'T LAST,
ONCE HE HAS TO START ANSWERING
QUESTIONS IT WILL FADE, HE WON'T
WIN THE IOWA CAUCUS.
THEN HE WON THE IOWA CAUCUS.
HE WON'T WIN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THEN HE WON SOUTH CAROLINA.
ALL OF A SUDDEN HE WENT FROM
ESTABLISHMENT WRITING HIM OFF,
OH, THIS IS JUST -- IT'S THE
SUMMER VACATION, TO A VIABLE
CANDIDATE.
I THINK THE SAME THING IS
HAPPENING, AS JOE ALLUDED TO, ON
THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WITH BERNIE
SANDERS.
DIFFERENT TYPE OF ANGER, BUT IT
IS A DISSATISFACTION WITH THE
STATUS QUO WITHIN THE PARTIES.
HILLARY CLINTON, AND ANY NUMBER
OF PEOPLE IN THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY.
THAT'S WHAT WE HAVE, SIMILAR
IDEAS JUST BEING EXPRESSED IN
VERY DIFFERENT WAYS.
>> JOE, WE'RE HEARING A LOT
ABOUT A CONTESTED CONVENTION.
YOUR LISTENERS, DO THEY
UNDERSTAND IT?
BECAUSE FOR SOME OF US, IT'S
REALLY COMPLEX.
>> IT'S DEEP AND DETAILED.
THE NOMINEE HAS TO GET TO 1237.
IF THEY DON'T GET THERE, IT GOES
TO THE CONVENTION PROCESS.
BUT EVERY PROCESS WE'RE LOOKING
AT IN EVERY STATE, PROPORTIONAL
VERSUS WINNER IN TOTAL, IT LOOKS
LIKE HE'S NOT GOING TO GET TO
THE 1237.
TECHNICALLY THE FIRST VOTE,
DELEGATES ARE HELD AND BOUND TO
THEIR STATE'S VOTERS.
AND THEY WILL VOTE FOR THAT
CANDIDATE THEY'RE REPRESENTING.
THE SECOND VOTE IS WHEN IT GETS
REALLY INTERESTING.
RULE 40-B SAYS YOU HAVE TO HAVE
WON EIGHT STATES TO BE THE NO,
MA'AM FEE.
SOME NOMINEE.
SOME NOMINEE.
>> THEY CAN'T PRODUCE A NEW
CANDIDATE?
>> THAT'S THE INTERESTING THING.
IN THAT RULE VOTE, BEFORE THE
CONVENTION STARTS, THE WEDNESDAY
BEFORE, THE DELEGATES WILL GET
TOGETHER AND APPROVE THE NEW
RULES.
WE'RE ALL TALKING ABOUT THESE
RULES.
THESE ARE THE RULES FROM THE
LAST CONVENTION.
AND A LOT OF PEOPLE SEE THAT
VOTE ON THAT RULE SPECIFICALLY
AS THE FIRST TEST FOR DONALD
TRUMP.
DOES THAT RULE COME IN, DOES IT
GET THROWN OUT?
AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO GIVE A
POSSIBLE LOOK AT HOW THE
DELEGATES, THE PARTY MACHINERY,
FEELS ABOUT DONALD TRUMP AS
THEIR POTENTIAL NOMINEE.
THAT'S THE SOMETHING THE
NETWORKS, THE REPORTERS, WE
DON'T NORMALLY COVER THAT.
I THINK YOU'LL HAVE FULL PRIME
TIME COVERAGE OF THAT BIG TIME
THIS YEAR, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
DECADES.
>> HOW DOES DONALD TRUMP ACCEPT
THIS NEWS THAT HE MAY NOT BE THE
NOMINEE?
>> WELL, SO MANY THINGS HAVE
HAPPENED OVER THE LAST THREE
WEEKS, RIGHT BEFORE WISCONSIN,
THAT I'VE WATCHED CLOSELY.
WE'VE PONTIFICATED ON THE AIR,
WHEN DOES DONALD TRUMP PIVOT.
HE NEVER REALLY DID.
THE ONE THAT I THINK IS A
CRITICAL ERROR IS WHEN HE SAID
IF THE RULES AREN'T CORRECT I'M
GOING TO RUN AS A THIRD PARTY.
THOSE DELEGATES THAT ARE SEATED
IN CLEVELAND ARE THE PARTY OF
THE PARTY, THE HARD CORE OF THE
PARTY.
WHEN YOU START TALKING ABOUT THE
NOMINEE THREATENING TO NOT RUN
AS A REPUBLICAN NOMINEE, THAT'S
A BIG KIND OF FEAR FACTOR FOR A
LOT OF THOSE DELEGATES.
MEANWHILE THE CRUZ CAMPAIGN HAS
BEEN WORKING THE VARIOUS STATES,
INCLUDING ARIZONAS, TRYING TO
SECURE THOSE DELEGATES ON A
SECOND RUN OR A SECOND VOTE.
THAT STRATEGIC COMMENT HE MADE I
REALLY THINK HEARD HIM.
>> WHEN TED CRUZ CAME TO
ARIZONA, HE ONLY WENT TO CERTAIN
PLACES.
DOES HE COME BACK TO TRY TO WOO
THOSE DELEGATES?
>> I DON'T THINK WE'LL
NECESSARILY SEE HIM BACK.
THERE ARE 13 STATES THAT STILL
HAVE A PRIMARY OR CAUCUS LEFT.
THOSE ARE THE DELEGATES THAT
HAVE TO BE SEWED UP INITIALLY.
THESE ADDITIONAL DELEGATES OR
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOLKS ONCE
THEY ARE IN CLEVELAND AFTER THAT
FIRST VOTE, HE DOESN'T HAVE TO
COME BACK AND DEAL WITH THEM.
HE CAN HAVE STAFF MEMBERS
WORKING AND HIS LOCAL SUPPORTERS
TRYING TO GET INTO THE
DELEGATIONS FOR THE VARIOUS
STATES.
THE CHANCES FOR SEEING A
REPUBLICAN OR A DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE BACK HERE AGAIN, EVEN
THROUGH THE GENERAL, ARE PRETTY
SLIM.
WE MIGHT SEE THEM COME THROUGH
PHOENIX, A QUICK STOP ON THE WAY
TO THE WEST COAST OR SOMETHING
LIKE THAT.
BUT THE CHANCES OF SEEING THEM
COME INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS
PRETTY SLIM.
I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE
SURPRISED THAT WEEKEND BEFORE
THE PRIMARY, WE HAD ALMOST EVERY
CANDIDATE, NOT ONLY IN ARIZONA
BUT MAKING MULTIPLE STOPS,
INCLUDING STOPS IN SOUTHERN
ARIZONA.
>> JOE, WHAT WOULD YOU SAY
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THINGS ABOUT
TED CRUZ?
>> MARICOPA COUNTY IS THE CENTER
OF THE REPUBLICAN UNIVERSE IN
ARIZONA, THEY'RE BIG TRUMP AND
CRUZ FANS.
SOUTHERNERS, I'M HEARING MY
HARD-CORE CONSERVATIVES THAT ARE
CONSTITUTIONALISTS REALLY LIKE
TED AND ARE STICKING WITH TED.
THOSE WHO ARE A LITTLE MORE
FRUSTRATED WITH THE PROCESS,
EVEN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE,
ARE SAYING LET'S DO THE CANCER
ANALOGY AND BRING IN SOMEBODY
WHO CAN COMPLETELY CHANGE THIS
THING.
>> DONALD TRUMP IS STARTING TO
SURROUND HIMSELF WITH SOME MORE
POLITICAL FIGURES.
IS HE TAKING THIS A LITTLE MORE
SERIOUSLY?
YOU SAID EARLIER IT WAS A
MISTAKE HE MADE.
IS HE CHANGING HIS TUNE NOW?
>> HE'S CHANGING HIS TUNE
BECAUSE HE'S REALIZED IT'S NOT
JUST ABOUT WINNING THE CAUCUS OR
PRIMARY IN EVERY STATE, THERE'S
A LOT MORE TO IT THAN THAT AND
HE HASN'T HAD PEOPLE AROUND HIM
AND ON THE GROUND WHO PLAY THAT
GAME.
HE'S REALIZED NOW THAT HE'S GOT
TO GET IN THE GAME, THAT CRUZ IS
ALREADY PLAYING THAT GAME, THAT
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS ALREADY
PLAYING THAT GAME, AND IF HE
WANTS TO LEAD THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY AS THEIR NOMINEE AND
POTENTIALLY THEIR PRESIDENT AND
BE THE STANDARD BEARER, HE'S GOT
TO PLAY THE GAME.
SO HE'S STARTING TO HIRE PEOPLE
AND BRING IN PEOPLE THAT CAN
HELP HIM PLAY THAT GAME.
>> LET'S GO INTO SOME STATE
POLITICS NOW.
PROPOSITION 123, 124, AND THE
STATE SPECIAL ELECTION.
123, JOE, EVERYONE WANTS IT BUT
IT COMES WITH MAYBE SOME THINGS
ATTACHED TO IT.
>> THE PRO GROUP HAS FUNDED IT,
YOU'LL SEE THE ADS AND FACEBOOK
POSTS COMING TO YOU.
IT SEEMS LIKE THE 123 PRO FOLKS
HAVE THE SCHOOL DISTRICTS, THE
TEACHERS, THE UNIONS, BASED ON
THE ADDITIONAL INCOME BACK TO
THE K-12 SYSTEM.
IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO
PASS.
>> AND 124, THIS DEALS WITH A
THE PENSION SYSTEM HERE IN
ARIZONA.
>> THE PENSION SYSTEM IN ARIZONA
FOR PUBLIC EMPLOYEES.
AND THAT INCLUDES FIREFIGHTERS
AND POLICE OFFICERS, STATE
WORKERS, IS UNDERFUNDED.
THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM OF
ARIZONA.
THIS IS TRUE ALL AROUND THE
COUNTRY.
MANY, MANY STATES HAVE THIS
PROBLEM.
SO 124 STARTS THE FIX OF THAT.
IT DEALS SPECIFICALLY WITH
PUBLIC SAFETY WORKERS.
FIREFIGHTERS, POLICE OFFICERS,
FOLKS LIKE THAT.
AND IT CHANGES -- 124 DEALS WITH
THE COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENTS
FOR PEOPLE TAKING THEIR
PENSIONS.
THERE ARE UNDERLYING BILLS THAT
DID NOT NEED VOTER APPROVAL THAT
CHANGED CONTRIBUTION RATES AND
THINGS LIKE THAT FOR THOSE
COMING INTO THE SYSTEM.
IT'S ALL AN ATTEMPT TO START
GETTING MONEY BACK IN THAT
SYSTEM.
RIGHT NOW THEY COULD PAY, IF
EVERYBODY RETIRED ALL AT ONCE,
THERE'S ENOUGH MONEY THERE FOR
50% OF THE PEOPLE, GIVE OR TAKE.
HOWEVER, EVERYBODY HAS TO BE
PAID.
AND LIKE I SAID, THIS IS NOT AN
ARIZONA-SPECIFIC PROBLEM.
THIS IS COUNTIES, CITIES,
STATES, ALL OVER THE COUNTRY
HAVE THIS PROBLEM.
>> JOE, THIS SORT OF THING HAS
TO HAPPEN TO KEEP FROM
BANKRUPTING OUR STATE'S REVENUE?
>> SO YOU LOOK AT PUERTO RICO
GOING THROUGH THIS RIGHT NOW,
THEY HAD TO REFINANCE.
PROMISES HAD BEEN MADE EARLY ON,
IN PRIOR COUNCILS AND COUNTY
SUPERVISORS AND STATE
LEGISLATURES THAT THEY'RE NOW
HAVING TO COME TO ROOST WITH
PAIN.
ARTIFICIALLY LOW INTEREST RATES
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING
RETURN.
YOU START PUTTING ALL THOSE
FORMULAS TOGETHER, THE MATH, AS
CHRIS SAID, DOESN'T ADD UP.
>> THE BUDGET, WE'RE STILL
WAITING ON THAT?
>> WE THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE THIS
WEEK.
WE'RE IN TALKS OR MOVING,
DEFINITELY, BUT WE HAVEN'T SEEN
A LOT POP UP ON THE FLOOR, BIG
PUBLIC TALKS YET.
BUT IT SHOULD BE COMING SOON.
STATE LAWMAKERS CAN'T RAISE
MONEY FOR THEIR REELECTION AS
LONG AS THEY'RE IN SESSION.
>> CHRISTOPHER, THANK YOU, JOE
HIGGINS, THANK YOU SO MUCH AND
WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
THAT'S OUR PROGRAM HERE AT
ARIZONA PUBLIC MEDIA.