1 00:00:06,740 --> 00:00:09,040 >>> DELEGATES. 2 00:00:09,043 --> 00:00:10,408 CONTESTED CONVENTION. 3 00:00:10,411 --> 00:00:12,243 HOW IT ALL WORKS. 4 00:00:12,246 --> 00:00:14,012 >> IT WILL BE LIKELY YOU'LL BE 5 00:00:14,015 --> 00:00:15,380 DOWN TO FISTFIGHTED AND HAND TO 6 00:00:15,383 --> 00:00:16,681 HAND COMBAT, BECAUSE THEY'LL BE 7 00:00:16,684 --> 00:00:18,016 SCRAPING FOR EVERY DELEGATE THAT 8 00:00:18,019 --> 00:00:19,784 THEY CAN FIND. 9 00:00:19,787 --> 00:00:20,151 >> AN UNUSUAL PRESIDENTIAL 10 00:00:20,154 --> 00:00:21,185 ELECTION. 11 00:00:21,188 --> 00:00:23,121 WHAT IT MEANS FOR VOTERS. 12 00:00:23,124 --> 00:00:25,223 >> PEOPLE ARE MORE TIRED OF 13 00:00:25,226 --> 00:00:25,556 THEIR OWN PARTY THAN WE'VE SEEN 14 00:00:25,559 --> 00:00:26,424 BEFORE. 15 00:00:26,427 --> 00:00:27,525 THERE'S A LOT OF NEGATIVE 16 00:00:27,528 --> 00:00:27,859 FEELINGS TOWARD THE PARTY 17 00:00:27,862 --> 00:00:28,626 SYSTEM. 18 00:00:28,629 --> 00:00:30,528 PEOPLE WANT SOMETHING DIFFERENT. 19 00:00:30,531 --> 00:00:31,029 >> PLUS A BREAKDOWN OF ARIZONA'S 20 00:00:31,032 --> 00:00:38,136 SPECIAL ELECTION. 21 00:00:38,139 --> 00:00:40,204 THIS IS "ARIZONA WEEK." 22 00:00:40,207 --> 00:00:40,538 >>> HELLO AND THANKS FOR JOINING 23 00:00:40,541 --> 00:00:42,106 US. 24 00:00:42,109 --> 00:00:43,408 THIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IS 25 00:00:43,411 --> 00:00:46,210 SHAPING UP TO BE A UNIQUE ONE, 26 00:00:46,213 --> 00:00:48,079 AND ONE THAT COULD PRESENT SOME 27 00:00:48,082 --> 00:00:49,580 SITUATIONS AMERICAN VOTERS HAVE 28 00:00:49,583 --> 00:00:54,852 NOT SEEN IN DECADES. 29 00:00:54,855 --> 00:00:56,754 FOR MORE I'M JOINED BY A 30 00:00:56,757 --> 00:00:58,489 POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT 31 00:00:58,492 --> 00:01:00,191 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA. 32 00:01:00,194 --> 00:01:03,361 >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME. 33 00:01:03,364 --> 00:01:05,396 >> PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES, ARE 34 00:01:05,399 --> 00:01:05,763 THEY THAT VALUABLE AND 35 00:01:05,766 --> 00:01:06,431 IMPORTANT? 36 00:01:06,434 --> 00:01:07,865 WHAT DO THEY TELL US? 37 00:01:07,868 --> 00:01:10,101 >> THEY TELL US WHO IS POPULAR 38 00:01:10,104 --> 00:01:11,102 IN THE STATE AND IT WILL 39 00:01:11,105 --> 00:01:12,937 EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW 40 00:01:12,940 --> 00:01:14,038 DELEGATES WILL VOTE ONCE THEY 41 00:01:14,041 --> 00:01:16,274 GET TO THE CONVENTION. 42 00:01:16,277 --> 00:01:18,543 >> AND DELEGATES VERSUS SUPER 43 00:01:18,546 --> 00:01:18,876 DELEGATES, HOW POWERFUL ARE THEY 44 00:01:18,879 --> 00:01:23,481 REALLY? 45 00:01:23,484 --> 00:01:25,783 >> DELEGATES, GENERALLY WE'RE 46 00:01:25,786 --> 00:01:28,152 TALKING ABOUT PLEDGED DELEGATES, 47 00:01:28,155 --> 00:01:30,788 CHOSEN AS A RESULT OF A CAUCUS. 48 00:01:30,791 --> 00:01:31,823 THEY GENERALLY HAVE TO SUPPORT 49 00:01:31,826 --> 00:01:35,093 THE CANDIDATE THEY'RE TIED TO, 50 00:01:35,096 --> 00:01:37,528 AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST VOTE IN 51 00:01:37,531 --> 00:01:38,896 THE CONVENTION. 52 00:01:38,899 --> 00:01:40,932 DELEGATES WERE CREATED IN THE 53 00:01:40,935 --> 00:01:43,735 1980s TO GIVE A VOICE TO THE 54 00:01:43,738 --> 00:01:46,004 PARTY LEADERS, THE STATE PARTY 55 00:01:46,007 --> 00:01:47,705 CHAIRS, AND ELECTED OFFICIALS. 56 00:01:47,708 --> 00:01:50,174 AND THEY REPRESENT A LITTLE LESS 57 00:01:50,177 --> 00:01:50,541 THAN 20% OF THE DEMOCRATIC 58 00:01:50,544 --> 00:01:53,077 DELEGATES. 59 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:53,945 AND THEY'RE FREE TO VOTE FOR 60 00:01:53,948 --> 00:01:56,047 WHOEVER THEY WANT. 61 00:01:56,050 --> 00:01:57,682 >> ARE THESE REAL MOVERS OR 62 00:01:57,685 --> 00:01:59,984 SHAKERS WITHIN THE PARTY OR JUST 63 00:01:59,987 --> 00:02:00,618 PEOPLE WHO HAPPEN TO HAVE BEEN 64 00:02:00,621 --> 00:02:02,253 CHOSEN? 65 00:02:02,256 --> 00:02:04,355 >> I GUESS YOU COULD CALL THEM 66 00:02:04,358 --> 00:02:05,256 MOVERS AND SHAKERS. 67 00:02:05,259 --> 00:02:06,057 THEY'RE MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE OF 68 00:02:06,060 --> 00:02:06,424 REPRESENTATIVES, SENATORS, 69 00:02:06,427 --> 00:02:07,825 GOVERNORS. 70 00:02:07,828 --> 00:02:09,761 THEY'RE THE TOP PARTY PEOPLE IN 71 00:02:09,764 --> 00:02:10,561 THE STATE. 72 00:02:10,564 --> 00:02:12,196 >> OKAY. 73 00:02:12,199 --> 00:02:13,064 WHY DO SOME STATES HAVE CAUCUSES 74 00:02:13,067 --> 00:02:15,633 AND OTHERS DO NOT? 75 00:02:15,636 --> 00:02:20,605 >> IT'S UP TO THE STATES TO 76 00:02:20,608 --> 00:02:25,143 CHOOSE WHO THEY WANT. 77 00:02:25,146 --> 00:02:25,510 THERE'S 15 STATES WHO USUALLY DO 78 00:02:25,513 --> 00:02:27,111 CAUCUSES. 79 00:02:27,114 --> 00:02:28,646 THEY'RE USUALLY SMALLER STATES. 80 00:02:28,649 --> 00:02:30,048 THE PEOPLE WHO SUPPORT CAUCUSES, 81 00:02:30,051 --> 00:02:30,381 THEY SAY IT'S A GRASSROOTS 82 00:02:30,384 --> 00:02:31,516 EFFORT. 83 00:02:31,519 --> 00:02:32,784 PEOPLE COME OUT TO THEIR 84 00:02:32,787 --> 00:02:34,318 COMMUNITY MEETING, THEY GET TO 85 00:02:34,321 --> 00:02:36,154 TALK TO THEIR NEIGHBORS, THEY 86 00:02:36,157 --> 00:02:36,821 GET TO, YOU KNOW, BE 87 00:02:36,824 --> 00:02:38,222 ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE 88 00:02:38,225 --> 00:02:38,856 PARTICIPATION AND SHOW THEIR 89 00:02:38,859 --> 00:02:40,525 SUPPORT. 90 00:02:40,528 --> 00:02:42,760 BUT IT'S ALSO A COMPLEX PROCESS, 91 00:02:42,763 --> 00:02:43,061 BECAUSE IT'S JUST THE FIRST 92 00:02:43,064 --> 00:02:44,329 STEP. 93 00:02:44,332 --> 00:02:48,099 THE PEOPLE WHO ARE SELECTED AT 94 00:02:48,102 --> 00:02:49,734 THE CAUCUS LEVEL THEN GO TO A 95 00:02:49,737 --> 00:02:50,902 COUNTY CONVENTION OR A 96 00:02:50,905 --> 00:02:53,371 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 97 00:02:53,374 --> 00:02:54,972 CONVENTION WHERE THE DELEGATES 98 00:02:54,975 --> 00:02:55,306 FOR THE NATIONAL CONVENTION ARE 99 00:02:55,309 --> 00:02:56,674 CHOSEN. 100 00:02:56,677 --> 00:02:58,309 THERE'S ALSO A STATE CONVENTION 101 00:02:58,312 --> 00:02:59,577 WHERE SOME MORE OF THE NATIONAL 102 00:02:59,580 --> 00:03:01,045 DELEGATES ARE CHOSEN. 103 00:03:01,048 --> 00:03:02,647 IT'S A COMPLEX PROCESS THAT 104 00:03:02,650 --> 00:03:03,014 PLAYS OUT OVER SEVERAL MONTHS, 105 00:03:03,017 --> 00:03:04,816 SOMETIMES. 106 00:03:04,819 --> 00:03:05,450 >> WE'RE HEARING A LOT ABOUT A 107 00:03:05,453 --> 00:03:06,517 CONTESTED CONVENTION, THE 108 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:08,953 POSSIBILITY OF ONE ON THE 109 00:03:08,956 --> 00:03:10,822 REPUBLICAN SIDE OF THINGS. 110 00:03:10,825 --> 00:03:12,190 HAVE WE SEEN THAT, HAVE AMERICAN 111 00:03:12,193 --> 00:03:12,490 VOTERS SEEN THAT BEFORE IN THE 112 00:03:12,493 --> 00:03:13,825 PAST? 113 00:03:13,828 --> 00:03:14,692 >> NOT SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE 114 00:03:14,695 --> 00:03:16,461 20th CENTURY. 115 00:03:16,464 --> 00:03:17,996 SO THE LAST TIME A REPUBLICAN 116 00:03:17,999 --> 00:03:20,531 CONVENTION WENT TO MORE THAN ONE 117 00:03:20,534 --> 00:03:22,767 BALLOT WAS IN 1948. 118 00:03:22,770 --> 00:03:23,735 DEMOCRATS IN 1952 HAD MORE THAN 119 00:03:23,738 --> 00:03:25,136 ONE BALLOT. 120 00:03:25,139 --> 00:03:26,537 >> WHAT DOES THAT REALLY MEAN? 121 00:03:26,540 --> 00:03:27,905 THAT THE ESTABLISHMENT DIDN'T 122 00:03:27,908 --> 00:03:30,375 GET WHO THEY WANTED? 123 00:03:30,378 --> 00:03:32,910 >> NOT IN THOSE CASES. 124 00:03:32,913 --> 00:03:33,811 SO, YOU KNOW, DURING THAT TIME 125 00:03:33,814 --> 00:03:34,545 THERE WASN'T VERY MANY 126 00:03:34,548 --> 00:03:35,947 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES. 127 00:03:35,950 --> 00:03:38,483 MANY OF THE CONVENTION DELEGATES 128 00:03:38,486 --> 00:03:39,484 WENT TO THE CONVENTION WITHOUT 129 00:03:39,487 --> 00:03:44,555 ANY STATED PARTICULAR LOYALTIES. 130 00:03:44,558 --> 00:03:45,590 SO IT WAS A MUCH DIFFERENT ERA. 131 00:03:45,593 --> 00:03:46,824 MANY TIMES CANDIDATES DIDN'T 132 00:03:46,827 --> 00:03:47,658 EVEN RUN IN PRIMARIES DURING 133 00:03:47,661 --> 00:03:49,694 THAT TIME PERIOD. 134 00:03:49,697 --> 00:03:52,397 AND SOMETIMES THERE WERE SOME 135 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,133 STATE PARTY BOSSES STILL AROUND 136 00:03:55,136 --> 00:03:58,703 WHO COULD NEGOTIATE SUPPORT. 137 00:03:58,706 --> 00:04:01,105 SO THEY WERE VERY TRADITIONAL 138 00:04:01,108 --> 00:04:02,440 CANDIDATES WHO WERE RUNNING. 139 00:04:02,443 --> 00:04:03,741 YOU DON'T HAVE THAT TODAY, IN 140 00:04:03,744 --> 00:04:04,909 TERMS OF THE DELEGATES ARE 141 00:04:04,912 --> 00:04:06,177 COMMITTEE ARE A CANDIDATE, AT 142 00:04:06,180 --> 00:04:08,980 LEAST ON THE FIRST ROUND. 143 00:04:08,983 --> 00:04:10,348 >> IN THE CASE OF THE REPUBLICAN 144 00:04:10,351 --> 00:04:11,683 PARTY, THAT'S WHERE WE'RE 145 00:04:11,686 --> 00:04:13,418 HEARING THE CONTESTED CONVENTION 146 00:04:13,421 --> 00:04:15,186 MAY BE, DELEGATES ARE COMING IN 147 00:04:15,189 --> 00:04:16,187 EXPECTED TO VOTE A CERTAIN WAY, 148 00:04:16,190 --> 00:04:17,855 SUDDENLY THEY GO A DIFFERENT 149 00:04:17,858 --> 00:04:18,723 DIRECTION, OR THE PARTY SAYS 150 00:04:18,726 --> 00:04:20,358 HE'S NOT THE PERSON TO REPRESENT 151 00:04:20,361 --> 00:04:22,093 US AND I'M REFERRING TO DONALD 152 00:04:22,096 --> 00:04:22,427 TRUMP, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT WE'RE 153 00:04:22,430 --> 00:04:25,063 HEARING. 154 00:04:25,066 --> 00:04:30,535 >> ON THE FIRST ROUND OF VOTING, 155 00:04:30,538 --> 00:04:32,203 THE DELEGATES HAVE TO VOTE FOR 156 00:04:32,206 --> 00:04:32,837 THE CANDIDATE THAT THEY WERE 157 00:04:32,840 --> 00:04:35,239 SUPPOSED TO DO SO. 158 00:04:35,242 --> 00:04:36,507 THE SECOND ROUND, IT DEPENDS ON 159 00:04:36,510 --> 00:04:38,009 THE STATE LAWS, BUT ON THE 160 00:04:38,012 --> 00:04:40,578 SECOND ROUND, I THINK IT'S 161 00:04:40,581 --> 00:04:43,648 AROUND 80% ARE THEN FREED UP. 162 00:04:43,651 --> 00:04:45,249 AND THEY CAN VOTE FOR WHICHEVER 163 00:04:45,252 --> 00:04:46,818 CANDIDATE THEY WANT. 164 00:04:46,821 --> 00:04:49,587 AND SO IT MAY BE, YOU KNOW, 165 00:04:49,590 --> 00:04:51,022 SOMEONE WHO IS A TRUMP VOTER ON 166 00:04:51,025 --> 00:04:52,523 THE FIRST ROUND, IN THE SECOND 167 00:04:52,526 --> 00:04:52,824 ROUND MIGHT DECIDE TO VOTE FOR 168 00:04:52,827 --> 00:04:53,558 CRUZ. 169 00:04:53,561 --> 00:04:55,860 >> WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN THAT 170 00:04:55,863 --> 00:04:58,162 FIRST AND SECOND ROUND? 171 00:04:58,165 --> 00:04:58,463 WHAT HAS CHANGED HIS OR HER 172 00:04:58,466 --> 00:05:00,698 MIND? 173 00:05:00,701 --> 00:05:02,500 >> WELL, THE DELEGATES ARE 174 00:05:02,503 --> 00:05:03,935 ACTUALLY CHOSEN AFTER THE EVENT. 175 00:05:03,938 --> 00:05:09,807 AND SOME OF THE DELEGATES WHO 176 00:05:09,810 --> 00:05:11,442 ARE BEING CHOSEN ARE, AGAIN, 177 00:05:11,445 --> 00:05:13,444 LOCAL PARTY ACTIVISTS WHO MAY 178 00:05:13,447 --> 00:05:14,512 HAVE DIFFERENT LOYALTIES. 179 00:05:14,515 --> 00:05:15,613 AND SO THEY'RE BOUND ON THE 180 00:05:15,616 --> 00:05:17,415 FIRST ROUND OF VOTING. 181 00:05:17,418 --> 00:05:19,484 BUT IN THE SECOND ROUND OF 182 00:05:19,487 --> 00:05:20,785 VOTING, MAYBE SOME OTHER 183 00:05:20,788 --> 00:05:23,621 PREFERENCES WILL COME OUT. 184 00:05:23,624 --> 00:05:27,158 AND TED CRUZ HAS ALSO BEEN OUT 185 00:05:27,161 --> 00:05:28,559 THERE COURTING THEM ALREADY, 186 00:05:28,562 --> 00:05:29,927 TALKING TO THEM AND TRYING TO 187 00:05:29,930 --> 00:05:31,929 CONVINCE THEM IF IT GOES TO A 188 00:05:31,932 --> 00:05:32,964 SECOND BALLOT, THAT THEY MIGHT 189 00:05:32,967 --> 00:05:34,899 SUPPORT HIM INSTEAD. 190 00:05:34,902 --> 00:05:35,333 >> ARE LOBBYISTS PLAYING A ROLE 191 00:05:35,336 --> 00:05:38,369 IN THAT CASE? 192 00:05:38,372 --> 00:05:40,471 >> NOT SO MUCH THE LOBBYISTS, 193 00:05:40,474 --> 00:05:41,239 IT'S THE CANDIDATE AND THEIR 194 00:05:41,242 --> 00:05:41,572 ORGANIZATIONS TRYING TO TALK TO 195 00:05:41,575 --> 00:05:43,207 PEOPLE. 196 00:05:43,210 --> 00:05:45,309 CRUZ IS BETTER ORGANIZED AT THIS 197 00:05:45,312 --> 00:05:47,779 THAN TRUMP IS RIGHT NOW. 198 00:05:47,782 --> 00:05:48,513 >> THE ARIZONA REPUBLICAN 199 00:05:48,516 --> 00:05:49,681 CONVENTION COMING UP AT THE END 200 00:05:49,684 --> 00:05:51,282 OF APRIL, WHAT DOES THAT 201 00:05:51,285 --> 00:05:52,817 TYPICALLY ENTAIL? 202 00:05:52,820 --> 00:05:54,352 >> THEY'LL BE CHOOSING THE 203 00:05:54,355 --> 00:05:55,053 DELEGATES THAT WILL GO TO A 204 00:05:55,056 --> 00:05:56,154 NATIONAL CONVENTION FOR THE 205 00:05:56,157 --> 00:05:57,522 STATE OF ARIZONA. 206 00:05:57,525 --> 00:05:59,157 THEM ALL BE BOUND TO VOTE FOR 207 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:02,093 TRUMP ON THE FIRST BALLOT. 208 00:06:02,096 --> 00:06:05,029 BUT AGAIN, WHAT HAPPENS ON THE 209 00:06:05,032 --> 00:06:05,330 SECOND BALLOT IS ANYBODY'S 210 00:06:05,333 --> 00:06:06,664 GUESS. 211 00:06:06,667 --> 00:06:08,299 >> WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THE 212 00:06:08,302 --> 00:06:09,334 REPUBLICAN PARTY, FOR EXAMPLE, 213 00:06:09,337 --> 00:06:10,802 PICKING AN ENTIRELY NEW 214 00:06:10,805 --> 00:06:12,337 CANDIDATE ALTOGETHER? 215 00:06:12,340 --> 00:06:13,971 >> THAT'S LESS LIKELY THAN 216 00:06:13,974 --> 00:06:18,509 HAVING A BATTLE BETWEEN TRUMP 217 00:06:18,512 --> 00:06:20,244 AND CRUZ AND MAYBE KASICH. 218 00:06:20,247 --> 00:06:21,412 THERE IS SOME REPUBLICAN RULES 219 00:06:21,415 --> 00:06:25,149 RIGHT NOW THAT SORT OF RESTRICT 220 00:06:25,152 --> 00:06:26,184 WHO CAN BE PUT INTO NOMINATION. 221 00:06:26,187 --> 00:06:27,018 THEY HAVE TO HAVE WON EIGHT 222 00:06:27,021 --> 00:06:28,820 STATES, ACTUALLY. 223 00:06:28,823 --> 00:06:30,688 SO THEY WOULD HAVE TO CHANGE 224 00:06:30,691 --> 00:06:31,022 THAT RULE BEFORE THE CONVENTION 225 00:06:31,025 --> 00:06:31,923 STARTED. 226 00:06:31,926 --> 00:06:34,225 >> SO THIS CAMPAIGN OR THIS 227 00:06:34,228 --> 00:06:34,959 ELECTION WILL END UP MAYBE 228 00:06:34,962 --> 00:06:37,962 FUDGING SOME OF THE RULES IN 229 00:06:37,965 --> 00:06:39,497 SOME WAY? 230 00:06:39,500 --> 00:06:40,898 >> WELL, THERE IS A RULES 231 00:06:40,901 --> 00:06:42,066 COMMITTEE, AND IT GETS TO MAKE 232 00:06:42,069 --> 00:06:43,634 SOME PRELIMINARY DECISIONS 233 00:06:43,637 --> 00:06:44,369 BEFORE THE CONVENTION STARTS, 234 00:06:44,372 --> 00:06:46,137 AND WHETHER OR NOT THE 235 00:06:46,140 --> 00:06:46,871 CONVENTION WOULD ADOPT THOSE, 236 00:06:46,874 --> 00:06:49,841 AGAIN, IS SOMETHING THAT MIGHT 237 00:06:49,844 --> 00:06:51,042 TELL YOU HOW CONTENTIOUS THE 238 00:06:51,045 --> 00:06:52,443 REPUBLICAN CONVENTION ALREADY. 239 00:06:52,446 --> 00:06:52,744 >> CERTAINLY ONE FOR THE HISTORY 240 00:06:52,747 --> 00:06:53,678 BOOKS. 241 00:06:53,681 --> 00:06:55,380 >> YES. 242 00:06:55,383 --> 00:06:56,014 >> DOCTOR, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR 243 00:06:56,017 --> 00:06:57,615 YOUR TIME. 244 00:06:57,618 --> 00:06:59,150 >>> AS YOU HEARD BARBARA 245 00:06:59,153 --> 00:07:00,018 MENTION, THE RULES CAN CHANGE. 246 00:07:00,021 --> 00:07:04,789 BUT WILL THEY? 247 00:07:04,792 --> 00:07:06,557 FOR MORE ON THAT I'M JOINED BY 248 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:07,558 AN ARIZONA REPUBLICAN 249 00:07:07,561 --> 00:07:08,793 COMMITTEEMAN. 250 00:07:08,796 --> 00:07:10,228 WILL THE RULES CHANGE? 251 00:07:10,231 --> 00:07:11,095 WE KNOW THEY CAN, BUT WHAT WILL 252 00:07:11,098 --> 00:07:11,863 WE SEE? 253 00:07:11,866 --> 00:07:13,131 >> THEY COULD. 254 00:07:13,134 --> 00:07:16,000 THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF TALK ABOUT 255 00:07:16,003 --> 00:07:18,136 RULE 40-B, THE THRESHOLD THAT 256 00:07:18,139 --> 00:07:18,469 REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES HAVE TO 257 00:07:18,472 --> 00:07:21,272 MEET. 258 00:07:21,275 --> 00:07:22,573 I DOUBT THAT THAT'S GOING TO BE 259 00:07:22,576 --> 00:07:23,775 CHANGED PRIOR TO THE CONVENTION, 260 00:07:23,778 --> 00:07:27,211 BECAUSE THE TWO CANDIDATES WHO 261 00:07:27,214 --> 00:07:29,080 HAVE THE GREATEST NUMBER OF 262 00:07:29,083 --> 00:07:30,148 DELEGATES TO THEIR CREDIT SO 263 00:07:30,151 --> 00:07:31,949 FAR, THEY'RE GOING TO BE MEET 264 00:07:31,952 --> 00:07:33,484 THE EIGHT STATES. 265 00:07:33,487 --> 00:07:33,885 NOBODY ELSE WILL GOING INTO THE 266 00:07:33,888 --> 00:07:34,986 CONVENTION. 267 00:07:34,989 --> 00:07:36,387 THE GREATEST NUMBER OF PEOPLE, 268 00:07:36,390 --> 00:07:37,422 WHETHER IT'S IN THE STANDING 269 00:07:37,425 --> 00:07:40,091 COMMITTEE ON RULES OR THE 270 00:07:40,094 --> 00:07:41,726 CONVENTION RULES COMMITTEE, 271 00:07:41,729 --> 00:07:42,694 THEY'RE ALL GOING TO BE TRUMP OR 272 00:07:42,697 --> 00:07:44,629 CRUZ SUPPORTERS. 273 00:07:44,632 --> 00:07:49,267 SO THE CHANCES OF 40-B BEING 274 00:07:49,270 --> 00:07:49,901 CHANGED ARE VERY, VERY SLIM 275 00:07:49,904 --> 00:07:51,469 GOING INTO THE CONVENTION. 276 00:07:51,472 --> 00:07:56,007 THE OTHER RULE BEING TALKED 277 00:07:56,010 --> 00:07:57,442 ABOUT, AND THERE WILL BE AN 278 00:07:57,445 --> 00:07:58,810 AMENDMENT NEXT WEEK, WILL HAVE 279 00:07:58,813 --> 00:07:59,210 TO DO WITH THE RULES OF THE 280 00:07:59,213 --> 00:08:01,412 CONVENTION. 281 00:08:01,415 --> 00:08:03,348 WILL WE CONTINUE TO USE THE U.S. 282 00:08:03,351 --> 00:08:04,649 HOUSE RULES, WHICH HAVE BEEN THE 283 00:08:04,652 --> 00:08:06,918 PREVAILING RULE USED ON THE 284 00:08:06,921 --> 00:08:08,953 CONVENTION FLOOR IN BOTH THE 285 00:08:08,956 --> 00:08:11,422 DEMOCRATIC PARTY AS WELL AS THE 286 00:08:11,425 --> 00:08:13,057 REPUBLICAN PARTY SINCE 1860, OR 287 00:08:13,060 --> 00:08:14,592 WILL WE GO TO A FORMAT THAT IS 288 00:08:14,595 --> 00:08:15,994 MOSTLY USED IN ORGANIZATIONAL 289 00:08:15,997 --> 00:08:17,462 MEETINGS, WHICH IS ROBERT'S 290 00:08:17,465 --> 00:08:20,098 RULES OF ORDER? 291 00:08:20,101 --> 00:08:22,400 ROBERT'S RULES OF ORDER WILL 292 00:08:22,403 --> 00:08:24,035 PROVIDE A LOT MORE DELEGATE 293 00:08:24,038 --> 00:08:26,371 EMPOWERMENT AS OPPOSED TO THE 294 00:08:26,374 --> 00:08:27,105 HOUSE RULES WHICH PROVIDED A 295 00:08:27,108 --> 00:08:27,939 CONCENTRATION OF POWER IN THE 296 00:08:27,942 --> 00:08:29,240 CHAIR OF THE CONVENTION. 297 00:08:29,243 --> 00:08:33,544 THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF 298 00:08:33,547 --> 00:08:35,079 DISAGREEMENT ON THAT OVER THE 299 00:08:35,082 --> 00:08:35,613 PAST CONVENTIONS OVER THE PAST 300 00:08:35,616 --> 00:08:36,347 FOUR YEARS. 301 00:08:36,350 --> 00:08:37,315 WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. 302 00:08:37,318 --> 00:08:38,716 THERE WILL BE A STRONG 303 00:08:38,719 --> 00:08:40,752 ATTEMPT -- IT DEPENDS IF THE 304 00:08:40,755 --> 00:08:42,120 TRUMP AND CRUZ CAMPAIGNS GET 305 00:08:42,123 --> 00:08:42,453 INVOLVED IN WANTING TO MAKE THAT 306 00:08:42,456 --> 00:08:44,455 CHANGE. 307 00:08:44,458 --> 00:08:46,157 IF THEY DO, THERE MAY VERY WELL 308 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:46,557 BE A CHANGE NEXT WEEK THAT 309 00:08:46,560 --> 00:08:48,760 OCCURS. 310 00:08:48,763 --> 00:08:49,360 AND OUR PACKAGE AT THE STANDING 311 00:08:49,363 --> 00:08:51,362 RULES COMMITTEE WILL BE 312 00:08:51,365 --> 00:08:52,997 PRESENTED TO THE RNC AS A WHOLE 313 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:54,666 WHEN WE MEET THE WEEK BEFORE THE 314 00:08:54,669 --> 00:08:56,901 NATIONAL CONVENTION IN JULY. 315 00:08:56,904 --> 00:08:59,771 AND THEN OUR PACKAGE GETS TURNED 316 00:08:59,774 --> 00:09:01,172 OVER TO THE CONVENTION RULES, 317 00:09:01,175 --> 00:09:02,707 AND THEY MAKE THE FINAL 318 00:09:02,710 --> 00:09:03,107 DECISIONS THAT GO INTO THE 319 00:09:03,110 --> 00:09:03,841 CONVENTION. 320 00:09:03,844 --> 00:09:05,576 THE INTERESTING THING IS FROM 321 00:09:05,579 --> 00:09:06,978 THE VERY START, WHETHER IT'S 322 00:09:06,981 --> 00:09:08,546 SOMEBODY ELECTED AS A NATIONAL 323 00:09:08,549 --> 00:09:09,981 COMMITTEE PERSON, STATE PARTY 324 00:09:09,984 --> 00:09:11,582 CHAIRMAN, A DELEGATE TO THE 325 00:09:11,585 --> 00:09:14,652 NATIONAL CONVENTION, THESE ARE 326 00:09:14,655 --> 00:09:16,521 ALL PEOPLE THAT GOT TO THE PLACE 327 00:09:16,524 --> 00:09:18,222 TO VOTE ON THESE THINGS BECAUSE 328 00:09:18,225 --> 00:09:20,958 OTHER PEOPLE VOTED FOR THEM. 329 00:09:20,961 --> 00:09:23,094 THOSE 24, ALMOST 2500 DELEGATES 330 00:09:23,097 --> 00:09:25,096 ON THE CONVENTION FLOOR IN 331 00:09:25,099 --> 00:09:25,997 CLEVELAND, WHATEVER HAPPENS IN 332 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:27,799 CLEVELAND, AND WHATEVER HAPPENS 333 00:09:27,802 --> 00:09:29,667 IN PHILADELPHIA FOR THE 334 00:09:29,670 --> 00:09:30,368 DEMOCRATS, ALL DECIDED ON THE 335 00:09:30,371 --> 00:09:34,372 CONVENTION FLOOR. 336 00:09:34,375 --> 00:09:36,074 THE DAYS OF SMOKE-FILLED ROOMS 337 00:09:36,077 --> 00:09:37,108 AND SOMEBODY SAYING WE WANT 338 00:09:37,111 --> 00:09:38,609 HARVEY TO BE OUR CANDIDATE, 339 00:09:38,612 --> 00:09:40,912 THOSE DAYS ARE OVER. 340 00:09:40,915 --> 00:09:44,515 THERE'S NOBODY THAT HAS THE SORT 341 00:09:44,518 --> 00:09:45,583 OF POLITICAL UMPH TO PROPEL A 342 00:09:45,586 --> 00:09:46,484 CANDIDATE. 343 00:09:46,487 --> 00:09:47,919 IT'S POPULAR SUPPORT. 344 00:09:47,922 --> 00:09:48,920 WE'VE SEEN THAT. 345 00:09:48,923 --> 00:09:50,355 THERE'S BEEN MILLIONS AND 346 00:09:50,358 --> 00:09:52,490 MILLIONS MORE VOTES, BOTH ON THE 347 00:09:52,493 --> 00:09:55,226 REPUBLICAN AND THE DEMOCRATIC 348 00:09:55,229 --> 00:09:55,493 SIDE, CAST IN THESE PRIMARIES SO 349 00:09:55,496 --> 00:09:58,296 FAR. 350 00:09:58,299 --> 00:10:01,199 VERY MUCH EMPOWERS VOTERS, VERY 351 00:10:01,202 --> 00:10:01,599 MUCH EMPOWERS DELEGATES AT THESE 352 00:10:01,602 --> 00:10:03,267 CONVENTIONS. 353 00:10:03,270 --> 00:10:05,103 >> YOU'RE A DELEGATE. 354 00:10:05,106 --> 00:10:07,772 WHAT ARE THESE CONVENTIONS LIKE. 355 00:10:07,775 --> 00:10:08,072 IT CAN GET NASTY, IT WILL GET 356 00:10:08,075 --> 00:10:09,974 NASTY? 357 00:10:09,977 --> 00:10:11,342 >> BY THE TIME WE GET TO 358 00:10:11,345 --> 00:10:14,345 CLEVELAND, PARTICULARLY IF THE 359 00:10:14,348 --> 00:10:16,581 TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS SLIGHTLY SHORT 360 00:10:16,584 --> 00:10:17,782 OF 1237 DELEGATES, IT'S LIKELY 361 00:10:17,785 --> 00:10:19,851 YOU'LL BE DOWN TO FIST FIGHTING 362 00:10:19,854 --> 00:10:22,220 AND HAND TO HAND COMBAT, BECAUSE 363 00:10:22,223 --> 00:10:24,756 THEY'LL BE SCRAPING FOR EVERY 364 00:10:24,759 --> 00:10:26,290 DELEGATE THAT THEY CAN FIND. 365 00:10:26,293 --> 00:10:27,291 IF DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T ACHIEVE 366 00:10:27,294 --> 00:10:29,327 1237 ON THE FIRST BALLOT, IT 367 00:10:29,330 --> 00:10:31,129 WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR HIM. 368 00:10:31,132 --> 00:10:32,330 IF IT GOES TO A MULTI-BALLOT 369 00:10:32,333 --> 00:10:34,065 CONVENTION, AND I'M NOT SURE 370 00:10:34,068 --> 00:10:36,367 IT'S GOING THAT WAY, BUT IF IT 371 00:10:36,370 --> 00:10:37,835 GOES TO A MULTIBALLOT 372 00:10:37,838 --> 00:10:39,303 CONVENTION, THE SECOND VOTE WILL 373 00:10:39,306 --> 00:10:40,605 BE MORE CRUCIAL FOR CRUZ THAN 374 00:10:40,608 --> 00:10:41,539 TRUMP, BECAUSE CRUZ IS REALLY 375 00:10:41,542 --> 00:10:47,178 GOING TO HAVE TO UP HIS NUMBERS. 376 00:10:47,181 --> 00:10:48,813 HE MAY BE 300 OR 400 DELEGATES 377 00:10:48,816 --> 00:10:49,213 BOTH BEHIND TRUMP GOING INTO THE 378 00:10:49,216 --> 00:10:55,186 CONVENTION. 379 00:10:55,189 --> 00:10:56,888 IT WILL BE A VERYYNAMIC TO SEE 380 00:10:56,891 --> 00:10:58,456 TRUMP SUPPORTERS FALL BY THE 381 00:10:58,459 --> 00:11:01,926 WAYSIDE, ONCE THEY'RE UNBOUND 382 00:11:01,929 --> 00:11:02,660 AND CAN VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE, 383 00:11:02,663 --> 00:11:04,262 WHETHER THEY CONTINUE VOTING FOR 384 00:11:04,265 --> 00:11:04,629 TRUMP OR IF THEY SWITCH OVER TO 385 00:11:04,632 --> 00:11:06,531 CRUZ. 386 00:11:06,534 --> 00:11:08,700 AND THEY'LL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY 387 00:11:08,703 --> 00:11:10,535 TWO CANDIDATES WHOSE NAMES WILL 388 00:11:10,538 --> 00:11:12,437 BE PLACED INTO NOMINATION, AT 389 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:13,504 LEAST COMMON WISDOM TODAY. 390 00:11:13,507 --> 00:11:14,505 >> DONALD TRUMP IS NOT 391 00:11:14,508 --> 00:11:15,039 AFFILIATED WITH THE REPUBLICAN 392 00:11:15,042 --> 00:11:18,476 NATIONAL COMMITTEE? 393 00:11:18,479 --> 00:11:18,976 >> NO, HE'S NEVER APPEARED IN 394 00:11:18,979 --> 00:11:19,877 FRONT OF US. 395 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:21,879 I HAVEN'T MET HIM. 396 00:11:21,882 --> 00:11:23,481 MOST ALL OF US HAVE MET ALL OF 397 00:11:23,484 --> 00:11:24,649 THE OTHER MEN AND WOMEN WHO WERE 398 00:11:24,652 --> 00:11:26,017 CANDIDATE IN THIS RACE. 399 00:11:26,020 --> 00:11:27,018 >> HOW VIABLE A CANDIDATE IS HE 400 00:11:27,021 --> 00:11:28,553 WITHIN THE PARTY? 401 00:11:28,556 --> 00:11:30,955 >> WELL, WITHIN THE PARTY, 402 00:11:30,958 --> 00:11:32,557 MEANING REPUBLICAN VOTERS, HE'S 403 00:11:32,560 --> 00:11:33,491 PROBABLY VERY VIABLE. 404 00:11:33,494 --> 00:11:34,359 HE'S WON MILLIONS AND MILLIONS 405 00:11:34,362 --> 00:11:36,461 OF VOTES. 406 00:11:36,464 --> 00:11:37,195 HE'S WON THE MAJORITY OF THE 407 00:11:37,198 --> 00:11:38,863 CONTESTS AROUND THE COUNTRY. 408 00:11:38,866 --> 00:11:41,065 BUT IT'S NOT A MATTER OF WHO 409 00:11:41,068 --> 00:11:44,068 GETS THE MOST VOTES OVERALL. 410 00:11:44,071 --> 00:11:45,570 IT'S NOT A MATTER OF WHO WINS 411 00:11:45,573 --> 00:11:46,804 THE MOST. 412 00:11:46,807 --> 00:11:49,440 IT'S DELEGATE COUNT. 413 00:11:49,443 --> 00:11:51,109 SOME OF THAT IS PREORDAINED BY 414 00:11:51,112 --> 00:11:52,276 STATE STATUTE OR PARTY RULES. 415 00:11:52,279 --> 00:11:53,811 AND SOME OF THAT, WHERE THERE 416 00:11:53,814 --> 00:11:55,013 ARE UNBOUND CANDIDATES, WE KNOW 417 00:11:55,016 --> 00:11:57,815 IN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA, 418 00:11:57,818 --> 00:12:03,054 IN COLORADO, THERE'S STORIES, 419 00:12:03,057 --> 00:12:05,556 YOU KNOW, WHERE UNBOUND 420 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:06,791 CANDIDATES ARE BEING WOOED BY 421 00:12:06,794 --> 00:12:08,026 BOTH SIDES. 422 00:12:08,029 --> 00:12:09,761 THE CRUZ PEOPLE APPEAR TO HAVE A 423 00:12:09,764 --> 00:12:12,230 BETTER SENSE OF HOW THE RNC 424 00:12:12,233 --> 00:12:15,366 WORKS, DELEGATE MATH AND SO ON. 425 00:12:15,369 --> 00:12:18,102 MR. TRUMP JUST HIRED RICK WILY 426 00:12:18,105 --> 00:12:19,971 WHO WORKED FOR SCOTT WALKER. 427 00:12:19,974 --> 00:12:21,305 SO I PREDICT THAT MR. TRUMP'S 428 00:12:21,308 --> 00:12:22,640 DELEGATE MATHEMATICS AND HIS 429 00:12:22,643 --> 00:12:24,976 ABILITY TO OPERATE BETWEEN NOW 430 00:12:24,979 --> 00:12:26,978 AND CONVENTION TIME IN JULY IS 431 00:12:26,981 --> 00:12:29,647 GOING TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. 432 00:12:29,650 --> 00:12:31,749 WILY KNOWS THE RNC VERY WELL. 433 00:12:31,752 --> 00:12:33,651 >> IS HE TAPPING INTO SOMETHING 434 00:12:33,654 --> 00:12:34,519 THAT NO ONE'S BEEN ABLE TO 435 00:12:34,522 --> 00:12:37,121 BEFORE? 436 00:12:37,124 --> 00:12:38,990 >> DONALD TRUMP PROBABLY 437 00:12:38,993 --> 00:12:40,958 UNDERSTANDS MEDIA DYNAMICS 438 00:12:40,961 --> 00:12:41,859 BETTER THAN ANYBODY ELSE, HAVING 439 00:12:41,862 --> 00:12:44,028 BEEN A TELEVISION PERSONALITY. 440 00:12:44,031 --> 00:12:46,564 HE'S REALLY BEEN A NATIONAL 441 00:12:46,567 --> 00:12:47,598 PERSONALITY, WHEN YOU GO BACK 442 00:12:47,601 --> 00:12:48,700 PROBABLY 25 YEARS, IF YOU 443 00:12:48,703 --> 00:12:49,901 REMEMBER WHEN HE USED TO COME TO 444 00:12:49,904 --> 00:12:51,002 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 445 00:12:51,005 --> 00:12:52,370 BASKETBALL GAMES, THE GAMES 446 00:12:52,373 --> 00:12:54,072 WOULD STOP WHEN HE WOULD BE WITH 447 00:12:54,075 --> 00:12:54,906 A FRIEND OF HIS DOWN AT CENTER 448 00:12:54,909 --> 00:12:57,809 COURT. 449 00:12:57,812 --> 00:12:58,976 HE HAS THAT KIND OF MAGNETISM AS 450 00:12:58,979 --> 00:13:00,311 AN INDIVIDUAL. 451 00:13:00,314 --> 00:13:02,046 HE'S A VERY INTERESTING FELLOW. 452 00:13:02,049 --> 00:13:02,380 >> WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT 453 00:13:02,383 --> 00:13:03,681 VOTERS? 454 00:13:03,684 --> 00:13:04,015 >> WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT 455 00:13:04,018 --> 00:13:04,949 VOTERS? 456 00:13:04,952 --> 00:13:08,453 THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. 457 00:13:08,456 --> 00:13:10,988 I THINK WHAT IT SAYS ABOUT 458 00:13:10,991 --> 00:13:11,422 VOTERS TODAY IS THEY'RE LOOKING 459 00:13:11,425 --> 00:13:12,890 FOR A LEADER. 460 00:13:12,893 --> 00:13:14,025 THE SAME WAY WE WERE LOOKING FOR 461 00:13:14,028 --> 00:13:15,059 A LEADER IN 2008. 462 00:13:15,062 --> 00:13:17,929 BARACK OBAMA WAS THAT LEADER 463 00:13:17,932 --> 00:13:20,131 THAT AMERICANS FELT COULD 464 00:13:20,134 --> 00:13:22,266 PROVIDE HOPE AND CHANGE. 465 00:13:22,269 --> 00:13:23,868 WHAT HOPE AND CHANGE MEANS IN 466 00:13:23,871 --> 00:13:26,037 2016 MAY LOOK A LITTLE DIFFERENT 467 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:27,905 THAN WHAT IT DID IN 2008. 468 00:13:27,908 --> 00:13:29,440 BUT AS MY FRIENDS HAVE TOLD ME, 469 00:13:29,443 --> 00:13:32,410 AS I'VE LEARNED IN THE BUSINESS, 470 00:13:32,413 --> 00:13:35,847 THE CENTER IS ALWAYS MOVING IN A 471 00:13:35,850 --> 00:13:37,482 POLITICAL DYNAMIC. 472 00:13:37,485 --> 00:13:38,783 AND IT JUST DEPENDS ON WHICH 473 00:13:38,786 --> 00:13:40,685 DIRECTION IT'S FLOWING. 474 00:13:40,688 --> 00:13:41,853 I THINK WE'VE BEEN A 475 00:13:41,856 --> 00:13:42,153 CENTER-RIGHT COUNTRY FOR A LONG 476 00:13:42,156 --> 00:13:44,455 TIME. 477 00:13:44,458 --> 00:13:45,823 WE'RE PROBABLY MORE MIDDLE 478 00:13:45,826 --> 00:13:48,660 CENTER TODAY, AND OVER THE PAST 479 00:13:48,663 --> 00:13:50,928 EIGHT YEARS. 480 00:13:50,931 --> 00:13:52,196 IT DEPENDS ON HOPES, FEARS, 481 00:13:52,199 --> 00:13:53,931 WORLD EVENTS, NATIONAL SECURITY 482 00:13:53,934 --> 00:13:56,067 IS GOING TO BE A BIG ISSUE, THE 483 00:13:56,070 --> 00:13:56,367 ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE A BIG 484 00:13:56,370 --> 00:13:58,503 ISSUE. 485 00:13:58,506 --> 00:14:00,672 BUT THE PERSONAL MAGNETISM OF 486 00:14:00,675 --> 00:14:02,640 WHOEVER THE NOMINEE IS, IS GOING 487 00:14:02,643 --> 00:14:04,976 TO BE A BIG DEAL. 488 00:14:04,979 --> 00:14:06,310 IF IT'S MRS. CLINTON WHO IS THE 489 00:14:06,313 --> 00:14:07,045 DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE, HER 490 00:14:07,048 --> 00:14:08,680 NEGATIVES ARE VERY HIGH. 491 00:14:08,683 --> 00:14:11,449 THE SAME WAY THAT DONALD TRUMP'S 492 00:14:11,452 --> 00:14:14,285 NEGATIVES ARE VERY HIGH. 493 00:14:14,288 --> 00:14:15,953 THIS COULD BE AN ELECTION, 494 00:14:15,956 --> 00:14:18,556 LORRAINE, WERE FEWER PEOPLE TURN 495 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:19,524 OUT IN 2016 THAN MAYBE THEY DID 496 00:14:19,527 --> 00:14:20,725 IN 2008. 497 00:14:20,728 --> 00:14:25,596 >> AND WHAT DOES THIS ELECTION 498 00:14:25,599 --> 00:14:27,832 TELL US ABOUT VOTERS? 499 00:14:27,835 --> 00:14:30,468 AN ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AT THE U 500 00:14:30,471 --> 00:14:32,437 OF A SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY. 501 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:33,471 THANKS FOR BEING HERE. 502 00:14:33,474 --> 00:14:35,640 >> IT'S GREAT TO BE HERE. 503 00:14:35,643 --> 00:14:36,274 >> THIS IS A UNIQUE ELECTION. 504 00:14:36,277 --> 00:14:38,009 >> EXCITING. 505 00:14:38,012 --> 00:14:38,476 >> AND SOME PEOPLE THINK, KIND 506 00:14:38,479 --> 00:14:39,410 OF COMPLICATED. 507 00:14:39,413 --> 00:14:40,244 >> YES. 508 00:14:40,247 --> 00:14:41,679 >> WHAT DOES IT TELL US ABOUT 509 00:14:41,682 --> 00:14:43,815 THE VOTERS OUT THERE? 510 00:14:43,818 --> 00:14:45,016 >> I'VE BEEN FINDING IN MY 511 00:14:45,019 --> 00:14:46,584 RESEARCH THAT AMERICAN VOTERS 512 00:14:46,587 --> 00:14:47,852 ARE TIRED OF BOTH PARTIES. 513 00:14:47,855 --> 00:14:49,821 PEOPLE ARE MORE TIRED OF THEIR 514 00:14:49,824 --> 00:14:50,154 OWN PARTY THAN WE'VE SEEN 515 00:14:50,157 --> 00:14:53,124 BEFORE. 516 00:14:53,127 --> 00:14:54,125 SO THERE'S A LOT OF NEGATIVE 517 00:14:54,128 --> 00:14:54,459 FEELINGS TOWARD THE PARTY 518 00:14:54,462 --> 00:14:55,426 SYSTEM. 519 00:14:55,429 --> 00:14:56,527 PEOPLE WANT SOMETHING DIFFERENT, 520 00:14:56,530 --> 00:14:57,428 SOMEONE WHO IS NOT AFFILIATED 521 00:14:57,431 --> 00:15:00,264 WITH EITHER PARTY. 522 00:15:00,267 --> 00:15:00,698 >> YOU JUST WROTE A BOOK ABOUT 523 00:15:00,701 --> 00:15:01,532 INDEPENDENTS. 524 00:15:01,535 --> 00:15:02,834 DOES THAT MEAN BERNIE SANDERS 525 00:15:02,837 --> 00:15:05,603 AND DONALD TRUMP TEND TO BE MORE 526 00:15:05,606 --> 00:15:06,270 LIKE AN INDEPENDENT AS OPPOSED 527 00:15:06,273 --> 00:15:06,971 TO THE TRADITIONAL PARTIES 528 00:15:06,974 --> 00:15:09,841 THEY'RE ASSOCIATED WITH? 529 00:15:09,844 --> 00:15:11,776 >> WHAT MY CO-AUTHOR AND I FOUND 530 00:15:11,779 --> 00:15:13,177 IS, WHAT DRIVES PEOPLE TO 531 00:15:13,180 --> 00:15:15,313 IDENTIFY AS INDEPENDENT IS THE 532 00:15:15,316 --> 00:15:17,181 SAME MOTIVATION THAT DRIVES THEM 533 00:15:17,184 --> 00:15:17,582 TO PULL AWAY FROM POLITICS 534 00:15:17,585 --> 00:15:18,282 ALTOGETHER. 535 00:15:18,285 --> 00:15:19,417 THEY DON'T WANT TO ASSOCIATE 536 00:15:19,420 --> 00:15:20,718 WITH A PARTY IN PUBLIC. 537 00:15:20,721 --> 00:15:23,588 THEY DON'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT 538 00:15:23,591 --> 00:15:23,988 THEIR PREFERRED PARTY IN SOCIAL 539 00:15:23,991 --> 00:15:24,722 SITUATIONS. 540 00:15:24,725 --> 00:15:25,390 DONALD TRUMP AND BERNIE SANDERS 541 00:15:25,393 --> 00:15:27,959 ALLOW PEOPLE TO SUPPORT A 542 00:15:27,962 --> 00:15:29,861 CANDIDATE WHO IS NOT 543 00:15:29,864 --> 00:15:30,895 TRADITIONALLY ASSOCIATED WITH 544 00:15:30,898 --> 00:15:31,829 EITHER PARTY. 545 00:15:31,832 --> 00:15:32,897 BERNIE SANDERS IS LEGITIMATELY 546 00:15:32,900 --> 00:15:34,365 AN INDEPENDENT. 547 00:15:34,368 --> 00:15:35,900 AND DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T HAVE A 548 00:15:35,903 --> 00:15:36,934 REAL HISTORY OF BEING A DEMOCRAT 549 00:15:36,937 --> 00:15:39,737 OR A REPUBLICAN. 550 00:15:39,740 --> 00:15:41,806 THEY SORT OF GIVE VOTERS AN OUT. 551 00:15:41,809 --> 00:15:43,307 >> THESE TWO MEN SEEM TO TALK 552 00:15:43,310 --> 00:15:44,876 NOT LIKE MOST POLITICIANS. 553 00:15:44,879 --> 00:15:46,110 >> YES, THAT'S RIGHT. 554 00:15:46,113 --> 00:15:47,311 >> DOES THAT GO A LONG WAY WITH 555 00:15:47,314 --> 00:15:48,546 THE VOTERS? 556 00:15:48,549 --> 00:15:49,580 >> I THINK IT DOES. 557 00:15:49,583 --> 00:15:51,082 PEOPLE DON'T REALLY BELIEVE 558 00:15:51,085 --> 00:15:52,183 CANDIDATES ANYMORE, THEY DON'T 559 00:15:52,186 --> 00:15:54,652 TRUST WHAT THEY'RE SAYING. 560 00:15:54,655 --> 00:15:55,753 THE FACT THAT DONALD TRUMP MAKES 561 00:15:55,756 --> 00:15:57,188 GRANDIOSE PROMISES AND BERNIE 562 00:15:57,191 --> 00:15:57,822 SANDERS DOES THE SAME, DOESN'T 563 00:15:57,825 --> 00:15:58,756 BOTHER PEOPLE. 564 00:15:58,759 --> 00:16:00,358 THEY DON'T BELIEVE WHAT THE 565 00:16:00,361 --> 00:16:02,460 OTHER GUYS ARE SAYING ANYWAY. 566 00:16:02,463 --> 00:16:03,761 THEY WANT TO KNOW WHAT ARE THEIR 567 00:16:03,764 --> 00:16:04,629 PRIORITIES, WHERE ARE THEY 568 00:16:04,632 --> 00:16:05,930 PLACING THEIR EMPHASIS. 569 00:16:05,933 --> 00:16:07,699 THE FACT THAT THEIR POLICIES MAY 570 00:16:07,702 --> 00:16:09,000 OR MAY NOT COME TO FRUITION 571 00:16:09,003 --> 00:16:09,934 DOESN'T SEEM TO BE BOTHERING 572 00:16:09,937 --> 00:16:11,436 THEIR SUPPORTERS AT ALL. 573 00:16:11,439 --> 00:16:11,803 >> YOU SAID THIS IS AN EXCITING 574 00:16:11,806 --> 00:16:13,071 ELECTION. 575 00:16:13,074 --> 00:16:14,439 FOR SOME PEOPLE IT IS. 576 00:16:14,442 --> 00:16:16,074 WOULDN'T YOU SAY IT'S ALSO 577 00:16:16,077 --> 00:16:17,408 GAINING SOME GROUND, SOME 578 00:16:17,411 --> 00:16:18,976 ATTENTION WITH PEOPLE WHO DON'T 579 00:16:18,979 --> 00:16:19,744 NORMALLY PAY ATTENTION TO 580 00:16:19,747 --> 00:16:21,846 NATIONAL ELECTIONS? 581 00:16:21,849 --> 00:16:23,014 >> YEAH, I MEAN, IT'S CERTAINLY 582 00:16:23,017 --> 00:16:24,315 BRINGING OUT VOTERS WHO HAVE NOT 583 00:16:24,318 --> 00:16:27,485 VOTED BEFORE. 584 00:16:27,488 --> 00:16:28,986 THE MEDIA IS CAPTURING A LOT OF 585 00:16:28,989 --> 00:16:30,355 ATTENTION FROM PEOPLE WHO DIDN'T 586 00:16:30,358 --> 00:16:32,724 USUALLY WATCH THE NEWS BEFORE. 587 00:16:32,727 --> 00:16:33,891 AND OF COURSE A LOT OF PEOPLE 588 00:16:33,894 --> 00:16:34,759 ARE TALKING ABOUT THE AMERICAN 589 00:16:34,762 --> 00:16:35,994 ELECTION IN OTHER COUNTRIES. 590 00:16:35,997 --> 00:16:36,961 IT COULD BE FOR GOOD REASONS OR 591 00:16:36,964 --> 00:16:38,296 NOT GREAT REASONS. 592 00:16:38,299 --> 00:16:39,530 ULTIMATELY THE ENGAGEMENT WITH 593 00:16:39,533 --> 00:16:39,931 POLITICS I THINK IS A GOOD 594 00:16:39,934 --> 00:16:41,599 THING. 595 00:16:41,602 --> 00:16:42,300 >> HOW DOES THE MEDIA PLAY A 596 00:16:42,303 --> 00:16:43,434 ROLE IN THIS DISCUSSION? 597 00:16:43,437 --> 00:16:45,269 >> THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF TALK 598 00:16:45,272 --> 00:16:46,637 ABOUT HOW THE MEDIA HAS BEEN 599 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,674 GIVING DONALD TRUMP A LOT OF 600 00:16:49,677 --> 00:16:50,842 FREE MEDIA, GIVING HIM A LOT OF 601 00:16:50,845 --> 00:16:53,644 COVERAGE, A LOT OF ATTENTION. 602 00:16:53,647 --> 00:16:54,979 AND THE CANDIDATES CAN IN MANY 603 00:16:54,982 --> 00:16:55,813 WAYS DETERMINE HOW MUCH FREE 604 00:16:55,816 --> 00:16:57,815 MEDIA THEY GET. 605 00:16:57,818 --> 00:16:58,516 DONALD TRUMP DOES NOT SAY NO TO 606 00:16:58,519 --> 00:17:00,918 AN INTERVIEW. 607 00:17:00,921 --> 00:17:02,687 HE'S CALLING INTO THE MEDIA 608 00:17:02,690 --> 00:17:03,187 SHOWS, DOING PHONE INTERVIEWS ON 609 00:17:03,190 --> 00:17:04,489 "MEET THE PRESS." 610 00:17:04,492 --> 00:17:08,092 TED CRUZ HAS BEEN KNOW MORE I 611 00:17:08,095 --> 00:17:09,360 COULDN'T SAYLY UNWILLING TO MEET 612 00:17:09,363 --> 00:17:09,827 NOTORIOUSLY UNWILLING TO MEET 613 00:17:09,830 --> 00:17:11,029 WITH THE MEDIA. 614 00:17:11,032 --> 00:17:12,063 DONALD TRUMP IS GETTING THE MOST 615 00:17:12,066 --> 00:17:12,463 ATTENTION BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT HE 616 00:17:12,466 --> 00:17:13,598 WANTS. 617 00:17:13,601 --> 00:17:14,732 HE HAS SAID NEGATIVE ATTENTION 618 00:17:14,735 --> 00:17:15,199 IS BETTER THAN NO ATTENTION AT 619 00:17:15,202 --> 00:17:18,102 ALL. 620 00:17:18,105 --> 00:17:20,805 >> HOW DOES THIS ELECTION PLAY 621 00:17:20,808 --> 00:17:21,873 OUT IN THEHISTORY BOOKS? 622 00:17:21,876 --> 00:17:24,042 >> EVERY ELECTION PEOPLE SAY, 623 00:17:24,045 --> 00:17:25,009 THIS MUST BE A GREAT TIME TO BE 624 00:17:25,012 --> 00:17:26,811 A POLITICAL SCIENTIST. 625 00:17:26,814 --> 00:17:28,980 BUT THIS ELECTION IS REALLY A 626 00:17:28,983 --> 00:17:31,249 GREAT TIME TO BE A POLITICAL 627 00:17:31,252 --> 00:17:31,649 SCIENTIST, ABSOLUTELY 628 00:17:31,652 --> 00:17:32,350 FASCINATING. 629 00:17:32,353 --> 00:17:32,950 IT WILL BE A BIG ELECTION FOR 630 00:17:32,953 --> 00:17:34,819 THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. 631 00:17:34,822 --> 00:17:36,254 THEY HAVE TO CHANGE, THEY HAVE 632 00:17:36,257 --> 00:17:39,257 TO FIGURE OUT WHAT EXACTLY IS 633 00:17:39,260 --> 00:17:39,957 GOING ON WITHIN THE PARTY. 634 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:40,792 THERE'S SUCH A LACK OF UNITY. 635 00:17:40,795 --> 00:17:41,893 FOR THE DEMOCRATS AS WELL, 636 00:17:41,896 --> 00:17:43,127 BERNIE SANDERS IS BRINGING IN 637 00:17:43,130 --> 00:17:45,229 ALL SORTS OF ISSUES THAT CLINTON 638 00:17:45,232 --> 00:17:45,963 PROBABLY WASN'T PREPARED TO TALK 639 00:17:45,966 --> 00:17:46,397 ABOUT TO THE EXTENT SHE'S BEING 640 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,566 FORCED TO. 641 00:17:48,569 --> 00:17:51,936 THIS ELECTION IS SORT OF A 642 00:17:51,939 --> 00:17:54,305 TURNING POINT IN TERMS OF 643 00:17:54,308 --> 00:17:54,739 REPRIORITIZING FOR BOTH. 644 00:17:54,742 --> 00:17:55,239 >> WONDERFUL. 645 00:17:55,242 --> 00:17:58,710 THANK YOU SO MUCH. 646 00:17:58,713 --> 00:17:59,877 >> THANK YOU. 647 00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,480 >>> THE BUZZ NOW. 648 00:18:02,483 --> 00:18:06,918 I'M JOINED BY MY COLLEAGUE HERE 649 00:18:06,921 --> 00:18:08,720 AT "THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC," AND 650 00:18:08,723 --> 00:18:12,223 CHRISTOPHER CONOVER, AND A NEW 651 00:18:12,226 --> 00:18:12,957 GUEST, JOE HIGGINS. 652 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:13,925 JOE, WELCOME. 653 00:18:13,928 --> 00:18:14,225 CHRISTOPHER, NICE TO HAVE YOU 654 00:18:14,228 --> 00:18:15,393 BACK. 655 00:18:15,396 --> 00:18:16,427 LET'S TALK ABOUT THE 656 00:18:16,430 --> 00:18:20,098 PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY. 657 00:18:20,101 --> 00:18:21,265 JOE, WHAT ARE YOUR LISTENERS 658 00:18:21,268 --> 00:18:23,801 WANTING IN THE NEXT PRESIDENT? 659 00:18:23,804 --> 00:18:24,702 >> WE LISTEN TO THIS DAY BY DAY, 660 00:18:24,705 --> 00:18:26,304 PLAY BY LAY. 661 00:18:26,307 --> 00:18:28,339 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, 662 00:18:28,342 --> 00:18:29,607 THERE WERE 17 CANDIDATES, EVERY 663 00:18:29,610 --> 00:18:30,775 SHAPE, FLAVOR, OR COLOR THAT YOU 664 00:18:30,778 --> 00:18:32,310 COULD PICK. 665 00:18:32,313 --> 00:18:34,479 IN THE END WE'RE WHITTLED DOWN 666 00:18:34,482 --> 00:18:35,213 TO TWO, POSSIBLY THREE WITH 667 00:18:35,216 --> 00:18:38,750 KASICH STILL IN THERE. 668 00:18:38,753 --> 00:18:39,484 EARLY ON WITH THE TRUMP 669 00:18:39,487 --> 00:18:40,551 PHENOMENON STARTED MOVING ALONG, 670 00:18:40,554 --> 00:18:41,419 I REACHED OUT TO A COUPLE OF 671 00:18:41,422 --> 00:18:42,286 FOLKS I RESPECT IN THE 672 00:18:42,289 --> 00:18:43,654 CONSERVATIVE WORLD, THE 673 00:18:43,657 --> 00:18:45,690 REPUBLICAN WORLD, AND SAID, 674 00:18:45,693 --> 00:18:47,692 GOSH, WHAT AM I MISSING, WHAT IS 675 00:18:47,695 --> 00:18:50,995 IT DID DONALD? 676 00:18:50,998 --> 00:18:52,430 THE BEST ANALOGY I HEARD WAS, 677 00:18:52,433 --> 00:18:55,733 THAT'S CANCER IN D.C. AND DONALD 678 00:18:55,736 --> 00:18:57,268 TRUMP IS THE CHEMOTHERAPY. 679 00:18:57,271 --> 00:18:58,703 WE KNOW HE'LL KILL SOME HEALTHY 680 00:18:58,706 --> 00:19:01,039 CELLS, WE HOPE HE DOESN'T KILL 681 00:19:01,042 --> 00:19:02,707 THE HOST, BUT HE'S GOING TO GET 682 00:19:02,710 --> 00:19:04,008 RID OF THE CANCER. 683 00:19:04,011 --> 00:19:06,010 KIND OF AN INTERESTING ANALOGY. 684 00:19:06,013 --> 00:19:09,480 >> BERNIE SANDERS IS GIVING 685 00:19:09,483 --> 00:19:11,315 HILLARY CLINTON A RUN FOR HER 686 00:19:11,318 --> 00:19:12,016 MONEY. 687 00:19:12,019 --> 00:19:13,551 >> THE FAR RIGHT AND FAR LEFT 688 00:19:13,554 --> 00:19:15,787 ARE VERY ANGRY. 689 00:19:15,790 --> 00:19:17,388 IT HAS TO DO A LOT WITH 690 00:19:17,391 --> 00:19:18,089 OBAMACARE BILLS HITTING PEOPLE'S 691 00:19:18,092 --> 00:19:21,392 KITCHEN TABLES. 692 00:19:21,395 --> 00:19:22,126 REAL WORLD JOBS HAVE BEEN WEAK 693 00:19:22,129 --> 00:19:23,328 IN THE RECESSION. 694 00:19:23,331 --> 00:19:25,396 PEOPLE ARE FRUSTRATED. 695 00:19:25,399 --> 00:19:26,431 >> WE'VE HEARD BEFORE WHAT YOU 696 00:19:26,434 --> 00:19:27,832 JUST SAID, DONALD TRUMP IS 697 00:19:27,835 --> 00:19:28,132 TAPPING INTO THE ANXIETY PEOPLE 698 00:19:28,135 --> 00:19:29,667 HAVE. 699 00:19:29,670 --> 00:19:31,235 BUT HOW FAR WILL IT GO? 700 00:19:31,238 --> 00:19:31,602 IN JUNE HE WASN'T MAYBE A VIABLE 701 00:19:31,605 --> 00:19:32,136 CANDIDATE. 702 00:19:32,139 --> 00:19:33,204 HE IS NOW. 703 00:19:33,207 --> 00:19:34,906 >> EVERYBODY SAID WHEN HE 704 00:19:34,909 --> 00:19:36,007 DECLARED, WHEN HE RODE THE 705 00:19:36,010 --> 00:19:37,508 ESCALATOR DOWN AND SAID I'M 706 00:19:37,511 --> 00:19:39,877 RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, AND HIS 707 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:40,611 GREAT POLL NUMBERS OUT AT THE 708 00:19:40,614 --> 00:19:42,246 BEGINNING, EVERYBODY SAID IT'S 709 00:19:42,249 --> 00:19:44,082 THE SUMMER, THIS WON'T LAST, 710 00:19:44,085 --> 00:19:45,616 ONCE HE HAS TO START ANSWERING 711 00:19:45,619 --> 00:19:47,118 QUESTIONS IT WILL FADE, HE WON'T 712 00:19:47,121 --> 00:19:49,020 WIN THE IOWA CAUCUS. 713 00:19:49,023 --> 00:19:50,288 THEN HE WON THE IOWA CAUCUS. 714 00:19:50,291 --> 00:19:51,723 HE WON'T WIN SOUTH CAROLINA. 715 00:19:51,726 --> 00:19:55,293 THEN HE WON SOUTH CAROLINA. 716 00:19:55,296 --> 00:19:57,028 ALL OF A SUDDEN HE WENT FROM 717 00:19:57,031 --> 00:19:59,964 ESTABLISHMENT WRITING HIM OFF, 718 00:19:59,967 --> 00:20:01,499 OH, THIS IS JUST -- IT'S THE 719 00:20:01,502 --> 00:20:01,866 SUMMER VACATION, TO A VIABLE 720 00:20:01,869 --> 00:20:03,534 CANDIDATE. 721 00:20:03,537 --> 00:20:05,036 I THINK THE SAME THING IS 722 00:20:05,039 --> 00:20:07,138 HAPPENING, AS JOE ALLUDED TO, ON 723 00:20:07,141 --> 00:20:07,472 THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WITH BERNIE 724 00:20:07,475 --> 00:20:10,074 SANDERS. 725 00:20:10,077 --> 00:20:11,709 DIFFERENT TYPE OF ANGER, BUT IT 726 00:20:11,712 --> 00:20:15,279 IS A DISSATISFACTION WITH THE 727 00:20:15,282 --> 00:20:16,214 STATUS QUO WITHIN THE PARTIES. 728 00:20:16,217 --> 00:20:17,448 HILLARY CLINTON, AND ANY NUMBER 729 00:20:17,451 --> 00:20:17,749 OF PEOPLE IN THE REPUBLICAN 730 00:20:17,752 --> 00:20:19,350 PARTY. 731 00:20:19,353 --> 00:20:20,385 THAT'S WHAT WE HAVE, SIMILAR 732 00:20:20,388 --> 00:20:21,352 IDEAS JUST BEING EXPRESSED IN 733 00:20:21,355 --> 00:20:22,887 VERY DIFFERENT WAYS. 734 00:20:22,890 --> 00:20:24,989 >> JOE, WE'RE HEARING A LOT 735 00:20:24,992 --> 00:20:26,824 ABOUT A CONTESTED CONVENTION. 736 00:20:26,827 --> 00:20:28,026 YOUR LISTENERS, DO THEY 737 00:20:28,029 --> 00:20:30,328 UNDERSTAND IT? 738 00:20:30,331 --> 00:20:30,862 BECAUSE FOR SOME OF US, IT'S 739 00:20:30,865 --> 00:20:34,098 REALLY COMPLEX. 740 00:20:34,101 --> 00:20:36,200 >> IT'S DEEP AND DETAILED. 741 00:20:36,203 --> 00:20:37,869 THE NOMINEE HAS TO GET TO 1237. 742 00:20:37,872 --> 00:20:38,903 IF THEY DON'T GET THERE, IT GOES 743 00:20:38,906 --> 00:20:40,271 TO THE CONVENTION PROCESS. 744 00:20:40,274 --> 00:20:41,773 BUT EVERY PROCESS WE'RE LOOKING 745 00:20:41,776 --> 00:20:44,509 AT IN EVERY STATE, PROPORTIONAL 746 00:20:44,512 --> 00:20:45,343 VERSUS WINNER IN TOTAL, IT LOOKS 747 00:20:45,346 --> 00:20:46,377 LIKE HE'S NOT GOING TO GET TO 748 00:20:46,380 --> 00:20:47,745 THE 1237. 749 00:20:47,748 --> 00:20:49,414 TECHNICALLY THE FIRST VOTE, 750 00:20:49,417 --> 00:20:50,348 DELEGATES ARE HELD AND BOUND TO 751 00:20:50,351 --> 00:20:52,350 THEIR STATE'S VOTERS. 752 00:20:52,353 --> 00:20:53,418 AND THEY WILL VOTE FOR THAT 753 00:20:53,421 --> 00:20:56,254 CANDIDATE THEY'RE REPRESENTING. 754 00:20:56,257 --> 00:20:58,823 THE SECOND VOTE IS WHEN IT GETS 755 00:20:58,826 --> 00:21:01,392 REALLY INTERESTING. 756 00:21:01,395 --> 00:21:02,293 RULE 40-B SAYS YOU HAVE TO HAVE 757 00:21:02,296 --> 00:21:07,932 WON EIGHT STATES TO BE THE NO, 758 00:21:07,935 --> 00:21:08,866 MA'AM FEE. 759 00:21:08,869 --> 00:21:11,269 SOME NOMINEE. 760 00:21:11,272 --> 00:21:12,804 SOME NOMINEE. 761 00:21:12,807 --> 00:21:13,171 >> THEY CAN'T PRODUCE A NEW 762 00:21:13,174 --> 00:21:14,806 CANDIDATE? 763 00:21:14,809 --> 00:21:16,307 >> THAT'S THE INTERESTING THING. 764 00:21:16,310 --> 00:21:17,775 IN THAT RULE VOTE, BEFORE THE 765 00:21:17,778 --> 00:21:19,811 CONVENTION STARTS, THE WEDNESDAY 766 00:21:19,814 --> 00:21:21,245 BEFORE, THE DELEGATES WILL GET 767 00:21:21,248 --> 00:21:21,546 TOGETHER AND APPROVE THE NEW 768 00:21:21,549 --> 00:21:22,380 RULES. 769 00:21:22,383 --> 00:21:22,680 WE'RE ALL TALKING ABOUT THESE 770 00:21:22,683 --> 00:21:23,715 RULES. 771 00:21:23,718 --> 00:21:25,383 THESE ARE THE RULES FROM THE 772 00:21:25,386 --> 00:21:26,417 LAST CONVENTION. 773 00:21:26,420 --> 00:21:29,053 AND A LOT OF PEOPLE SEE THAT 774 00:21:29,056 --> 00:21:30,521 VOTE ON THAT RULE SPECIFICALLY 775 00:21:30,524 --> 00:21:30,822 AS THE FIRST TEST FOR DONALD 776 00:21:30,825 --> 00:21:32,323 TRUMP. 777 00:21:32,326 --> 00:21:33,558 DOES THAT RULE COME IN, DOES IT 778 00:21:33,561 --> 00:21:36,461 GET THROWN OUT? 779 00:21:36,464 --> 00:21:38,363 AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO GIVE A 780 00:21:38,366 --> 00:21:40,498 POSSIBLE LOOK AT HOW THE 781 00:21:40,501 --> 00:21:41,866 DELEGATES, THE PARTY MACHINERY, 782 00:21:41,869 --> 00:21:44,502 FEELS ABOUT DONALD TRUMP AS 783 00:21:44,505 --> 00:21:45,336 THEIR POTENTIAL NOMINEE. 784 00:21:45,339 --> 00:21:47,338 THAT'S THE SOMETHING THE 785 00:21:47,341 --> 00:21:49,574 NETWORKS, THE REPORTERS, WE 786 00:21:49,577 --> 00:21:51,009 DON'T NORMALLY COVER THAT. 787 00:21:51,012 --> 00:21:52,110 I THINK YOU'LL HAVE FULL PRIME 788 00:21:52,113 --> 00:21:53,511 TIME COVERAGE OF THAT BIG TIME 789 00:21:53,514 --> 00:21:54,112 THIS YEAR, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 790 00:21:54,115 --> 00:21:55,213 DECADES. 791 00:21:55,216 --> 00:21:58,016 >> HOW DOES DONALD TRUMP ACCEPT 792 00:21:58,019 --> 00:21:58,349 THIS NEWS THAT HE MAY NOT BE THE 793 00:21:58,352 --> 00:21:59,550 NOMINEE? 794 00:21:59,553 --> 00:22:00,985 >> WELL, SO MANY THINGS HAVE 795 00:22:00,988 --> 00:22:02,620 HAPPENED OVER THE LAST THREE 796 00:22:02,623 --> 00:22:04,689 WEEKS, RIGHT BEFORE WISCONSIN, 797 00:22:04,692 --> 00:22:10,495 THAT I'VE WATCHED CLOSELY. 798 00:22:10,498 --> 00:22:12,530 WE'VE PONTIFICATED ON THE AIR, 799 00:22:12,533 --> 00:22:13,765 WHEN DOES DONALD TRUMP PIVOT. 800 00:22:13,768 --> 00:22:15,233 HE NEVER REALLY DID. 801 00:22:15,236 --> 00:22:17,201 THE ONE THAT I THINK IS A 802 00:22:17,204 --> 00:22:18,903 CRITICAL ERROR IS WHEN HE SAID 803 00:22:18,906 --> 00:22:19,871 IF THE RULES AREN'T CORRECT I'M 804 00:22:19,874 --> 00:22:22,607 GOING TO RUN AS A THIRD PARTY. 805 00:22:22,610 --> 00:22:23,675 THOSE DELEGATES THAT ARE SEATED 806 00:22:23,678 --> 00:22:25,309 IN CLEVELAND ARE THE PARTY OF 807 00:22:25,312 --> 00:22:25,610 THE PARTY, THE HARD CORE OF THE 808 00:22:25,613 --> 00:22:27,478 PARTY. 809 00:22:27,481 --> 00:22:28,680 WHEN YOU START TALKING ABOUT THE 810 00:22:28,683 --> 00:22:31,182 NOMINEE THREATENING TO NOT RUN 811 00:22:31,185 --> 00:22:34,485 AS A REPUBLICAN NOMINEE, THAT'S 812 00:22:34,488 --> 00:22:35,887 A BIG KIND OF FEAR FACTOR FOR A 813 00:22:35,890 --> 00:22:36,954 LOT OF THOSE DELEGATES. 814 00:22:36,957 --> 00:22:38,189 MEANWHILE THE CRUZ CAMPAIGN HAS 815 00:22:38,192 --> 00:22:40,525 BEEN WORKING THE VARIOUS STATES, 816 00:22:40,528 --> 00:22:42,260 INCLUDING ARIZONAS, TRYING TO 817 00:22:42,263 --> 00:22:44,062 SECURE THOSE DELEGATES ON A 818 00:22:44,065 --> 00:22:47,332 SECOND RUN OR A SECOND VOTE. 819 00:22:47,335 --> 00:22:48,333 THAT STRATEGIC COMMENT HE MADE I 820 00:22:48,336 --> 00:22:50,068 REALLY THINK HEARD HIM. 821 00:22:50,071 --> 00:22:51,936 >> WHEN TED CRUZ CAME TO 822 00:22:51,939 --> 00:22:52,270 ARIZONA, HE ONLY WENT TO CERTAIN 823 00:22:52,273 --> 00:22:55,540 PLACES. 824 00:22:55,543 --> 00:22:57,508 DOES HE COME BACK TO TRY TO WOO 825 00:22:57,511 --> 00:22:59,043 THOSE DELEGATES? 826 00:22:59,046 --> 00:23:00,945 >> I DON'T THINK WE'LL 827 00:23:00,948 --> 00:23:02,347 NECESSARILY SEE HIM BACK. 828 00:23:02,350 --> 00:23:03,881 THERE ARE 13 STATES THAT STILL 829 00:23:03,884 --> 00:23:05,183 HAVE A PRIMARY OR CAUCUS LEFT. 830 00:23:05,186 --> 00:23:08,619 THOSE ARE THE DELEGATES THAT 831 00:23:08,622 --> 00:23:09,620 HAVE TO BE SEWED UP INITIALLY. 832 00:23:09,623 --> 00:23:11,689 THESE ADDITIONAL DELEGATES OR 833 00:23:11,692 --> 00:23:14,292 WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOLKS ONCE 834 00:23:14,295 --> 00:23:15,994 THEY ARE IN CLEVELAND AFTER THAT 835 00:23:15,997 --> 00:23:17,628 FIRST VOTE, HE DOESN'T HAVE TO 836 00:23:17,631 --> 00:23:18,997 COME BACK AND DEAL WITH THEM. 837 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,100 HE CAN HAVE STAFF MEMBERS 838 00:23:22,103 --> 00:23:22,934 WORKING AND HIS LOCAL SUPPORTERS 839 00:23:22,937 --> 00:23:24,202 TRYING TO GET INTO THE 840 00:23:24,205 --> 00:23:24,535 DELEGATIONS FOR THE VARIOUS 841 00:23:24,538 --> 00:23:25,636 STATES. 842 00:23:25,639 --> 00:23:27,271 THE CHANCES FOR SEEING A 843 00:23:27,274 --> 00:23:29,240 REPUBLICAN OR A DEMOCRATIC 844 00:23:29,243 --> 00:23:31,943 CANDIDATE BACK HERE AGAIN, EVEN 845 00:23:31,946 --> 00:23:32,243 THROUGH THE GENERAL, ARE PRETTY 846 00:23:32,246 --> 00:23:34,512 SLIM. 847 00:23:34,515 --> 00:23:35,913 WE MIGHT SEE THEM COME THROUGH 848 00:23:35,916 --> 00:23:36,981 PHOENIX, A QUICK STOP ON THE WAY 849 00:23:36,984 --> 00:23:37,348 TO THE WEST COAST OR SOMETHING 850 00:23:37,351 --> 00:23:38,916 LIKE THAT. 851 00:23:38,919 --> 00:23:41,886 BUT THE CHANCES OF SEEING THEM 852 00:23:41,889 --> 00:23:42,353 COME INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS 853 00:23:42,356 --> 00:23:43,688 PRETTY SLIM. 854 00:23:43,691 --> 00:23:44,389 I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE 855 00:23:44,392 --> 00:23:46,691 SURPRISED THAT WEEKEND BEFORE 856 00:23:46,694 --> 00:23:49,694 THE PRIMARY, WE HAD ALMOST EVERY 857 00:23:49,697 --> 00:23:51,362 CANDIDATE, NOT ONLY IN ARIZONA 858 00:23:51,365 --> 00:23:52,563 BUT MAKING MULTIPLE STOPS, 859 00:23:52,566 --> 00:23:52,897 INCLUDING STOPS IN SOUTHERN 860 00:23:52,900 --> 00:23:55,166 ARIZONA. 861 00:23:55,169 --> 00:23:56,601 >> JOE, WHAT WOULD YOU SAY 862 00:23:56,604 --> 00:23:56,968 SOUTHERN ARIZONA THINGS ABOUT 863 00:23:56,971 --> 00:23:59,604 TED CRUZ? 864 00:23:59,607 --> 00:24:03,041 >> MARICOPA COUNTY IS THE CENTER 865 00:24:03,044 --> 00:24:04,242 OF THE REPUBLICAN UNIVERSE IN 866 00:24:04,245 --> 00:24:05,309 ARIZONA, THEY'RE BIG TRUMP AND 867 00:24:05,312 --> 00:24:07,879 CRUZ FANS. 868 00:24:07,882 --> 00:24:10,882 SOUTHERNERS, I'M HEARING MY 869 00:24:10,885 --> 00:24:11,749 HARD-CORE CONSERVATIVES THAT ARE 870 00:24:11,752 --> 00:24:13,484 CONSTITUTIONALISTS REALLY LIKE 871 00:24:13,487 --> 00:24:15,053 TED AND ARE STICKING WITH TED. 872 00:24:15,056 --> 00:24:16,154 THOSE WHO ARE A LITTLE MORE 873 00:24:16,157 --> 00:24:17,321 FRUSTRATED WITH THE PROCESS, 874 00:24:17,324 --> 00:24:19,157 EVEN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE, 875 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:20,992 ARE SAYING LET'S DO THE CANCER 876 00:24:20,995 --> 00:24:21,826 ANALOGY AND BRING IN SOMEBODY 877 00:24:21,829 --> 00:24:23,461 WHO CAN COMPLETELY CHANGE THIS 878 00:24:23,464 --> 00:24:25,296 THING. 879 00:24:25,299 --> 00:24:26,764 >> DONALD TRUMP IS STARTING TO 880 00:24:26,767 --> 00:24:27,765 SURROUND HIMSELF WITH SOME MORE 881 00:24:27,768 --> 00:24:31,936 POLITICAL FIGURES. 882 00:24:31,939 --> 00:24:32,470 IS HE TAKING THIS A LITTLE MORE 883 00:24:32,473 --> 00:24:33,805 SERIOUSLY? 884 00:24:33,808 --> 00:24:35,073 YOU SAID EARLIER IT WAS A 885 00:24:35,076 --> 00:24:37,108 MISTAKE HE MADE. 886 00:24:37,111 --> 00:24:38,443 IS HE CHANGING HIS TUNE NOW? 887 00:24:38,446 --> 00:24:39,877 >> HE'S CHANGING HIS TUNE 888 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:44,549 BECAUSE HE'S REALIZED IT'S NOT 889 00:24:44,552 --> 00:24:45,283 JUST ABOUT WINNING THE CAUCUS OR 890 00:24:45,286 --> 00:24:46,617 PRIMARY IN EVERY STATE, THERE'S 891 00:24:46,620 --> 00:24:47,652 A LOT MORE TO IT THAN THAT AND 892 00:24:47,655 --> 00:24:49,320 HE HASN'T HAD PEOPLE AROUND HIM 893 00:24:49,323 --> 00:24:49,620 AND ON THE GROUND WHO PLAY THAT 894 00:24:49,623 --> 00:24:50,955 GAME. 895 00:24:50,958 --> 00:24:52,323 HE'S REALIZED NOW THAT HE'S GOT 896 00:24:52,326 --> 00:24:53,558 TO GET IN THE GAME, THAT CRUZ IS 897 00:24:53,561 --> 00:24:54,826 ALREADY PLAYING THAT GAME, THAT 898 00:24:54,829 --> 00:24:55,893 THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS ALREADY 899 00:24:55,896 --> 00:24:57,595 PLAYING THAT GAME, AND IF HE 900 00:24:57,598 --> 00:24:59,497 WANTS TO LEAD THE REPUBLICAN 901 00:24:59,500 --> 00:25:00,498 PARTY AS THEIR NOMINEE AND 902 00:25:00,501 --> 00:25:02,000 POTENTIALLY THEIR PRESIDENT AND 903 00:25:02,003 --> 00:25:02,867 BE THE STANDARD BEARER, HE'S GOT 904 00:25:02,870 --> 00:25:04,669 TO PLAY THE GAME. 905 00:25:04,672 --> 00:25:06,637 SO HE'S STARTING TO HIRE PEOPLE 906 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,072 AND BRING IN PEOPLE THAT CAN 907 00:25:08,075 --> 00:25:10,074 HELP HIM PLAY THAT GAME. 908 00:25:10,077 --> 00:25:11,142 >> LET'S GO INTO SOME STATE 909 00:25:11,145 --> 00:25:15,680 POLITICS NOW. 910 00:25:15,683 --> 00:25:17,215 PROPOSITION 123, 124, AND THE 911 00:25:17,218 --> 00:25:19,450 STATE SPECIAL ELECTION. 912 00:25:19,453 --> 00:25:22,854 123, JOE, EVERYONE WANTS IT BUT 913 00:25:22,857 --> 00:25:23,855 IT COMES WITH MAYBE SOME THINGS 914 00:25:23,858 --> 00:25:26,190 ATTACHED TO IT. 915 00:25:26,193 --> 00:25:30,028 >> THE PRO GROUP HAS FUNDED IT, 916 00:25:30,031 --> 00:25:31,195 YOU'LL SEE THE ADS AND FACEBOOK 917 00:25:31,198 --> 00:25:34,132 POSTS COMING TO YOU. 918 00:25:34,135 --> 00:25:35,900 IT SEEMS LIKE THE 123 PRO FOLKS 919 00:25:35,903 --> 00:25:38,503 HAVE THE SCHOOL DISTRICTS, THE 920 00:25:38,506 --> 00:25:39,904 TEACHERS, THE UNIONS, BASED ON 921 00:25:39,907 --> 00:25:41,673 THE ADDITIONAL INCOME BACK TO 922 00:25:41,676 --> 00:25:43,007 THE K-12 SYSTEM. 923 00:25:43,010 --> 00:25:43,341 IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO 924 00:25:43,344 --> 00:25:45,410 PASS. 925 00:25:45,413 --> 00:25:46,711 >> AND 124, THIS DEALS WITH A 926 00:25:46,714 --> 00:25:47,045 THE PENSION SYSTEM HERE IN 927 00:25:47,048 --> 00:25:48,546 ARIZONA. 928 00:25:48,549 --> 00:25:50,381 >> THE PENSION SYSTEM IN ARIZONA 929 00:25:50,384 --> 00:25:51,783 FOR PUBLIC EMPLOYEES. 930 00:25:51,786 --> 00:25:54,252 AND THAT INCLUDES FIREFIGHTERS 931 00:25:54,255 --> 00:25:55,586 AND POLICE OFFICERS, STATE 932 00:25:55,589 --> 00:25:57,121 WORKERS, IS UNDERFUNDED. 933 00:25:57,124 --> 00:25:57,588 THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM OF 934 00:25:57,591 --> 00:25:58,623 ARIZONA. 935 00:25:58,626 --> 00:25:59,090 THIS IS TRUE ALL AROUND THE 936 00:25:59,093 --> 00:26:01,259 COUNTRY. 937 00:26:01,262 --> 00:26:01,592 MANY, MANY STATES HAVE THIS 938 00:26:01,595 --> 00:26:04,062 PROBLEM. 939 00:26:04,065 --> 00:26:05,396 SO 124 STARTS THE FIX OF THAT. 940 00:26:05,399 --> 00:26:07,799 IT DEALS SPECIFICALLY WITH 941 00:26:07,802 --> 00:26:08,733 PUBLIC SAFETY WORKERS. 942 00:26:08,736 --> 00:26:11,369 FIREFIGHTERS, POLICE OFFICERS, 943 00:26:11,372 --> 00:26:13,538 FOLKS LIKE THAT. 944 00:26:13,541 --> 00:26:15,273 AND IT CHANGES -- 124 DEALS WITH 945 00:26:15,276 --> 00:26:18,910 THE COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENTS 946 00:26:18,913 --> 00:26:19,277 FOR PEOPLE TAKING THEIR 947 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:20,545 PENSIONS. 948 00:26:20,548 --> 00:26:23,114 THERE ARE UNDERLYING BILLS THAT 949 00:26:23,117 --> 00:26:24,182 DID NOT NEED VOTER APPROVAL THAT 950 00:26:24,185 --> 00:26:24,849 CHANGED CONTRIBUTION RATES AND 951 00:26:24,852 --> 00:26:25,616 THINGS LIKE THAT FOR THOSE 952 00:26:25,619 --> 00:26:27,151 COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. 953 00:26:27,154 --> 00:26:28,653 IT'S ALL AN ATTEMPT TO START 954 00:26:28,656 --> 00:26:28,986 GETTING MONEY BACK IN THAT 955 00:26:28,989 --> 00:26:30,855 SYSTEM. 956 00:26:30,858 --> 00:26:32,123 RIGHT NOW THEY COULD PAY, IF 957 00:26:32,126 --> 00:26:33,291 EVERYBODY RETIRED ALL AT ONCE, 958 00:26:33,294 --> 00:26:35,760 THERE'S ENOUGH MONEY THERE FOR 959 00:26:35,763 --> 00:26:37,595 50% OF THE PEOPLE, GIVE OR TAKE. 960 00:26:37,598 --> 00:26:37,895 HOWEVER, EVERYBODY HAS TO BE 961 00:26:37,898 --> 00:26:40,231 PAID. 962 00:26:40,234 --> 00:26:41,466 AND LIKE I SAID, THIS IS NOT AN 963 00:26:41,469 --> 00:26:42,567 ARIZONA-SPECIFIC PROBLEM. 964 00:26:42,570 --> 00:26:43,568 THIS IS COUNTIES, CITIES, 965 00:26:43,571 --> 00:26:45,737 STATES, ALL OVER THE COUNTRY 966 00:26:45,740 --> 00:26:47,238 HAVE THIS PROBLEM. 967 00:26:47,241 --> 00:26:50,041 >> JOE, THIS SORT OF THING HAS 968 00:26:50,044 --> 00:26:50,775 TO HAPPEN TO KEEP FROM 969 00:26:50,778 --> 00:26:52,643 BANKRUPTING OUR STATE'S REVENUE? 970 00:26:52,646 --> 00:26:53,911 >> SO YOU LOOK AT PUERTO RICO 971 00:26:53,914 --> 00:26:56,381 GOING THROUGH THIS RIGHT NOW, 972 00:26:56,384 --> 00:26:59,050 THEY HAD TO REFINANCE. 973 00:26:59,053 --> 00:27:01,686 PROMISES HAD BEEN MADE EARLY ON, 974 00:27:01,689 --> 00:27:02,353 IN PRIOR COUNCILS AND COUNTY 975 00:27:02,356 --> 00:27:03,087 SUPERVISORS AND STATE 976 00:27:03,090 --> 00:27:04,889 LEGISLATURES THAT THEY'RE NOW 977 00:27:04,892 --> 00:27:05,957 HAVING TO COME TO ROOST WITH 978 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:07,258 PAIN. 979 00:27:07,261 --> 00:27:09,694 ARTIFICIALLY LOW INTEREST RATES 980 00:27:09,697 --> 00:27:10,028 ARE HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING 981 00:27:10,031 --> 00:27:12,163 RETURN. 982 00:27:12,166 --> 00:27:14,632 YOU START PUTTING ALL THOSE 983 00:27:14,635 --> 00:27:16,467 FORMULAS TOGETHER, THE MATH, AS 984 00:27:16,470 --> 00:27:19,771 CHRIS SAID, DOESN'T ADD UP. 985 00:27:19,774 --> 00:27:20,505 >> THE BUDGET, WE'RE STILL 986 00:27:20,508 --> 00:27:21,973 WAITING ON THAT? 987 00:27:21,976 --> 00:27:22,273 >> WE THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE THIS 988 00:27:22,276 --> 00:27:25,843 WEEK. 989 00:27:25,846 --> 00:27:26,678 WE'RE IN TALKS OR MOVING, 990 00:27:26,681 --> 00:27:28,446 DEFINITELY, BUT WE HAVEN'T SEEN 991 00:27:28,449 --> 00:27:30,581 A LOT POP UP ON THE FLOOR, BIG 992 00:27:30,584 --> 00:27:32,684 PUBLIC TALKS YET. 993 00:27:32,687 --> 00:27:33,518 BUT IT SHOULD BE COMING SOON. 994 00:27:33,521 --> 00:27:35,853 STATE LAWMAKERS CAN'T RAISE 995 00:27:35,856 --> 00:27:36,788 MONEY FOR THEIR REELECTION AS 996 00:27:36,791 --> 00:27:39,657 LONG AS THEY'RE IN SESSION. 997 00:27:39,660 --> 00:27:40,391 >> CHRISTOPHER, THANK YOU, JOE 998 00:27:40,394 --> 00:27:41,826 HIGGINS, THANK YOU SO MUCH AND 999 00:27:41,829 --> 00:27:43,027 WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. 1000 00:27:43,030 --> 00:27:43,594 THAT'S OUR PROGRAM HERE AT 1001 00:27:43,597 --> 00:27:45,530 ARIZONA PUBLIC MEDIA.