>>> HELLO EVERYONE AND WELCOME.
HERE IS WHAT IS COMING UP.
>> 20 YEARS SINCE THE INVASION THAT CHANGED AMERICA'S PLACE IN THE WORLD, WE LOOK AT THE DOMINO EFFECTS OF THE WAR IN IRAQ.
FIRST, HE GOES TO MOSCOW.
THE CHINESE PRESIDENT IN VASES HIM CHIPPING AWAY AT DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA IS UNCHALLENGED GLOBAL STATUS.
>>> THE TRUE COST OF THE IRAQI WAR WITH JOURNALIST AND AUTHOR.
ON THE HUMAN PRICE.
>>> THERE WERE GOOD REASONS WHERE AMERICAN POLICYMAKERS TO BE EXTREMELY DISTRUSTFUL AND SUSPICIOUS.
>> CONFRONTING SADDAM HUSSEIN.
WHAT THE U.S. HAS LEARNED 20 YEARS LATER.
>>> IT IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY FUND.
JIM ATWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS.
THE FAMILY FOUNDATION.
MARK.
BERNARD AND DENISE SCHWARTZ.
COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITY.
BARBARA ZUCKERBERG.
WE TRY TO LIVE IN THE MOMENT.
TO NOT MISS WHAT IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF US.
WE BELIEVE TAKING CARE OF TOMORROW CAN HELP YOU MAKE THE MOST OF TODAY.
MUTUAL OF AMERICA FINANCIAL GROUP.
RETIREMENT SERVICES AND INVESTMENT.
THESE FUNDERS.
BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.
THANK YOU.
>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM EVERYONE.
TONIGHT, AS THE WAR IN UKRAINE THROWS THE SPOTLIGHT ON DEMOCRACY AND ACCOUNTABILITY, WE LOOK BACK IN ORDER TO LOOK FORWARD.
IT IS 20 SERIOUS SINCE THE US- LED INVASION OF IRAQ.
PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH ONCE SAID THE ROAD TO DEMOCRACY WOULD LEAD THROUGH BAGHDAD AND BE A WATERSHED EVENT IN THE GLOBAL DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION.
QUITE THE CONTRARY.
HERE HE IS BACK IN 2002.
>> THE DAYS OF IRAQ ACTING AS A OUTLAW STATE COMING TO A END.
THE UNITED STATES IS COMMITTED TO HELPING MAKE THE WORLD MORE PEACEFUL.
MORE JUST.
>> INSTEAD THE WAR UP INTO THE MIDDLE EAST.
PLUS TO ROCK INTO CHAOS AND LED DIRECTLY TO THE RISE.
WE WILL EXAMINED THAT LEGACY LATER, BUT FIRST, IT IS BEING FLUNG BACK IN ITS FACE NOW A NEW GLOBAL CHALLENGES.
INTENT ON CRUSHING UKRAINE'S DEMOCRACY.
CHINA WHO SEES A NEW WORLD ORDER BEING MADE MORE IN BEIJING'S IMAGE.
TODAY THE 2 COME TOGETHER IN MOSCOW.
BEIJING IS CASTING THIS VISIT.
IS IT MORE LIKE THE RISE OF THE AUTHORITARIANS.
THE FORMER RUSSIAN DEPUTY MINISTER OF ENERGY IS JOINING ME.
MICHAEL BENTLEY FORMER PENTAGON OFFICIAL AND CO-AUTHOR OF DANGER ZONE.
THE COMING CONFLICT WITH CHINA.
GENTLEMEN, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
I SORT OF LAID OUT AT THE SEAS AND I WANT TO ASK YOU FIRST, WHAT YOU THINK RUSSIA THIS VISIT AT THIS TIME?
>> GREAT TO BE WITH YOU.
I DO NOT THINK THEY WILL GIVE VERY MUCH.
I AM PRETTY SURE CHINA IS UNHAPPY WITH HOW THE WAR IS GOING.
HE IS NOT CAPABLE OF WINNING AND HE ACTUALLY ENTERED THIS BLUNTLY CONFLICT.
I'M SURE HE PROMISED THIS WILL BE A SWIFT TYPE OF OPERATION.
NOW IT IS MESSY.
CHINA HAS NO INFLUENCE OVER IT.
THEY CANNOT MAKE ANY DECISIONS THAT WILL CHANGE THE COURSE OF THE WAR.
HOWEVER HE IS A VERY IMPORTANT ALLY.
WITH THE DEMOCRATIC WEST.
SOMEHOW HE HAS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT.
THIS IS A VERY UNEASY RELATIONSHIP.
>> YOU HAVE WRITTEN THIS ON THE COMING CONFLICT.
WHAT DO YOU THINK HE GETS OUT OF THIS?
>> I THINK WE HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS IN THE CONTEXT THAT CHINA BELIEVES IT IS LOCKED INTO A LONG-TERM CONFRONTATION WITH THE UNITED STATES.
RUSSIA IS A VITAL ALLY.
IS SUPPLIES RESOURCES TO CHINA.
CHINA IS TRYING TO MODERNIZE ITS NUCLEAR POWER SUBMARINES.
THEY ALSO WANT TO GET SURFACE TO AIR MISSILES.
BOTH OF THESE COUNTRIES ARE REVISIONIST POWERS.
THEY ARE TRYING TO REDRAW THE MAP OF EURASIA AND TO PUSH BACK ON WHAT THEY VIEW AS A WESTERN DEMOCRATICALLY DOMINATED WORLD.
RUSSIA IS A VITAL ALLY SO IT IS NO SURPRISE CHINA WILL CONTINUE TO PROP UP RUSSIA.
>> TO THAT POINT.
THEY ARE CASTING THIS AS A JOURNEY OF THESE.
LET US JUST PLAY WHAT HE SAID DURING HIS MEETING.
>> IT IS TRUE THAT BOTH OF OUR COUNTRIES SHARE THE SAME OR SIMILAR GOES.
WE HAVE EXERTED EFFORTS FOR THE PROSPERITY OF OUR RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES.
WE CAN COOPERATE AND WORK TOGETHER TO ACHIEVE OUR GOALS.
>> THAT WAS MORE ABOUT WHAT YOU HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT.
WHO DO YOU THINK NEEDS THE MOST?
>> DEFINITELY RUSSIA.
RUSSIA IS IN DEEP CRISIS.
THE ECONOMY AND SO ON.
CHINESE IS NOT PARTICIPATING AGAIN AS I SAID.
CLEARLY, HE NEEDS HIS SUPPORTS MORE.
AGAIN, AS WE BOTH POINTED OUT.
KEEP THIS STRATEGIC ALLY.
SOMETIMES I THINK IT IS VERY USEFUL.
REALLY CREATING SOME DISTURBING POSITIONS WHICH IS TAKING A LOT OF AMERICAN RESOURCES.
MAYBE FOR CHINA SOMEHOW THE SITUATION IS KIND OF USEFUL.
IT IS RUSSIA WITH ITS EMERGING ECONOMIC CRISIS.
WITH RUSSIA RUNNING OUT AT THE BATTLEFIELD.
IT IS RUSSIA WHICH NEEDS CHINA THE MOST.
>> AGAIN, JUST TO DIVE DEEPER INTO THIS.
YOU SAID THEY LOOK AT A GENERATIONAL SORT OF STRUGGLE.
BEING LOCKED INTO A LONG-TERM STRUGGLE.
IT IS A LETTER TO THE RUSSIAN MEDIA BEFORE HIS VISIT.
HE SAID THE TWO COUNTRIES WILL JOINTLY ADOPT A NEW VISION.
NEW MEASURES FOR THE GROWTH OF CHINA.
COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP OF COORDINATION.
WHAT WOULD THAT LOOK LIKE?
>> THEY ARE CLEARLY SKETCHING OUT A ALTERNATIVE WORLD ORDER.
FIRST OF ALL WHAT GOES ON WITHIN THEIR BORDERS.
HOW THEY TREAT THEIR OWN PEOPLE IS THEIR BUSINESS.
THE UNITED STATES AND THEIR ALLIES NEED TO STAY OUT OF THAT BUSINESS.
THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE NATURAL SPHERES OF INFLUENCE.
THEY SHOULD BE REDUCED TO THE STATUS.
THAT IS THE WAY INTERNATIONAL POLITICS WORK.
THEY ARE CLEARLY SKETCHING OUT THAT ALTERNATIVE.
THEY ALSO JOINTLY PUSH BACK WHAT THEY CALL THE COLD WAR MINDSET.
MAINLY U.S. MILITARY ALLIANCES AS WELL AS THE USE OF SANCTIONS.
TRYING TO PUSH BACK AT THAT WORLD ORDER AND COVER OUT SPACE FOR ANOTHER ONE DOMINATED BY THEM.
>> YOU ARE A FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF ENERGY.
VERY PLUGGED INTO THE ECONOMY OF RUSSIA.
CAN YOU JUST SKETCH OUT.
WE HEAR SO MANY DIFFERENT THINGS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THEY ARE NOT.
THE PROJECTED GROWTH IS BIGGER THAN WE MAY HAVE EXPECTED.
CAN YOU JUST GIVE US FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE.
WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN RUSSIA NOW?
>> SANCTIONS ARE HAVING A VERY DEEP AND PROFOUND IMPACT.
WE ARE JUST LUNGING INTO A VERY DEEP BUDGET OR CRISIS.
THE DEFICIT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERAL BUDGET.
90 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL DEFICIT THAT WAS PLANNED FOR THE WHOLE OF THIS YEAR.
THIS IS BECAUSE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OIL BARGAIN.
ON TOP OF THAT, YOU HAVE MAJOR INDUSTRIES.
UNPLUGGED FROM CAPITAL MARKETS.
SO ONE.
WE HAVE DOMESTIC RETAIL TRADE.
DEEP DEPRESSION LAST YEAR.
IT WAS MORE THAN 10 PERCENT OF THE ANNUAL BASIS.
I CAN GO ON FOR A LONG TIME.
SANCTIONS ARE HAVING INCREASING IMPACTS AS TIME GOES BY.
IT IS NOT A IMMEDIATE THING.
THIS YEAR WE WOULD BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.
THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING OUT OF MONEY.
THIS IS ACTUALLY WHEN HE IS NEEDING CHINESE SUPPORT THE MOST.
SO FAR IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY 10.
CHINA IS PROVIDING SOMETHING AT THE BARE MINIMUM.
TO MAKE RUSSIA HOLD ON.
TO SAFE AND ECONOMIC.
>> LET'S DELVE A LITTLE BIT DEEPER.
THE SORT OF ADDRESSED AT THE BEGINNING.
DO YOU ALL BELIEVE.
THAT HE HAS ANYTHING CONSTRUCTIVE TO OFFER.
THIS IS WHAT HE SAID ABOUT CHINA'S PEACE PROPOSAL.
>> WE HAVE CAREFULLY STUDIED YOUR PROPOSALS.
OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DISCUSS THIS ISSUE.
WE KNOW YOU PROCEED FROM THE PRINCIPLE OF JUSTICE AND OBSERVANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTAL PROVISIONS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW.
INDIVISIBLE SECURITY.
YOU ARE ALSO AWARE THAT WE ARE ALWAYS OPEN TO THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS.
WE WILL CERTAINLY DISCUSS ALL OF THESE ISSUES INCLUDING YOUR INITIATIVE.
>> SHOULD THOSE INVOLVED INCLUDING THE WEST THAT IS SUPPORTING UKRAINE, SHOULD THEY TAKE ANY COMFORT FROM THAT.
IS THERE ANY SERIOUS AVENUE TOWARDS ANY KIND OF RESOLUTION?
>> I THINK WE'RE AT THE POINT WHERE THE ONLY COMFORT THAT CAN BE TAKEN ARE THINGS THAT MAYBE THEY WANT TO DO COMING OUT OF THIS MEETING.
HOPEFULLY HE WILL NOT MAKE EXPLICIT PLEDGE OF LETHAL AID FOR RUSSIA.
SORT OF ONE-LINERS ABOUT NOT WANTING THIS CONFLICT TO ESCALATE.
JUST TO PUT SOME DOUBT IN THE BACK OF HIS MIND THAT HE CAN COUNT ON CHINA IF HE ESCALATES SEVERELY.
OTHER THAN THAT, I AGREE THAT CHINA WOULD HAVE WANTED RUSSIA TO WIN THIS WAR EASILY.
I THINK A LONGER DRAWNOUT CONFLICT IS NOT NECESSARILY A TERRIBLE OUTCOME EITHER.
IT TIES DOWN THE WEST AND CAUSES THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES TO EXPAND THEIR OWN STOCKS OF MUNITIONS AND DISTRACTION FROM WHATEVER CHINA IS TRYING TO DO.
WHILE IT MAY HAVE PREFERRED A RUSSIAN VICTORY, KEEPING THIS WERE GOING IS NOT THE WORST THING.
I DO NOT EXPECT CHINA TO MAKE PROACTIVE MEASURES TO ACTUALLY BRING THIS CONFLICT TO A END.
>> KEEPING THIS WERE GOING, IS THAT A GOOD THING FOR RUSSIA?
WE KNOW HE ALWAYS THINKS TIME IS ON HIS SIDE.
A GRADUAL WEARING DOWN.
NOT JUST ON THE BATTLEFIELD BUT IN THE SUPPORTING NATIONS.
HIS TIME ON HIS SIDE?
>> I THINK THIS WAS ONE MORE MAJOR MISTAKE.
HE IS BELIEVING IN HIS RESOURCE SUPREMACY.
HE CAN OUTLAST AND OUT WAGE THE DEMOCRATIC WESTERN SOCIETIES.
THIS IS WRONG.
THIS IS A PROFOUND MISCALCULATION.
I THINK THIS IS ALSO WHAT MAKES CHINA VERY UNEASY.
THEY'RE NOT IN CONTROL OF THE OUTCOME OF THIS WAR.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT PREVENTS HIM FROM THROWING HIS FULL WEIGHT.
>> I WANT TO ASK YOU BOTH TO JUST TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK AND WHAT YOU FELT WHEN YOU SAW HIM BEING INDICTED OR A ARREST WARRANT BEING ISSUED FOR THE THEN SPENDING THE WEEKEND HOPPING INTO OCCUPIED TERRITORIES.
INCLUDING ON THE MAINLAND OF UKRAINE.
THAT IS SERIOUS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> THIS INDICTMENT.
I KNOW IT ACTUALLY SENDS SHOCKWAVES AMONG MY FORMER COLLEAGUES.
ALL THIS TALK ABOUT HIM BEING PERSECUTED SOMEWHERE SOMEHOW HAS FINALLY TRANSFORMED INTO VERY SPECIFIC ERRORS.
WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENED WITH MANY LEADERS INDICTED.
THIS IS LIKE A MAJOR STEP FORWARD.
I THINK WE CAN SNAP A EMOTIONAL REACTION TO THAT.
YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CHANGE THIS.
ALSO THE SHOW OF STRENGTH.
THIS ALSO DEMONSTRATES THE EMOTIONAL REACTION OF THIS VISIT.
THIS ALSO DEMONSTRATES THE VULNERABILITY IN TERMS OF LENGTHY STRATEGIC CONFRONTATION.
THERE ARE VERY RARE CHANCES THAT RUSSIA MAY WIN.
>> MICHAEL, HE DID THIS ON THE EVE OF HIS VISIT.
WAS HE TRYING TO PROJECT STRENGTH TO CHINA AS WELL?
>> I THINK IS TRYING TO SHOW THAT HE CAN ACT WITH IMPUNITY.
I THINK IT IS UNNERVING FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
NOW THE STAKES HAVE REALLY BEEN RAISED.
HE IS GOING TO HAVE TROUBLE TRAVELING OUTSIDE OF RUSSIA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THAT MAY INCREASE HIS POTENTIAL TO ESCALATE.
IT ALSO SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT CHINA THAT HE WOULD BE WILLING TO HAVE THIS STATE VISIT.
SO SOON AFTER THE OPTICS GOING AROUND BEING ACCUSED OF WAR CRIMES.
IT SAYS SCARY THINGS ABOUT BOTH RUSSIA AND CHINA.
>> OF COURSE THE SECRETARY OF STATE HAS ADDRESSED NOT JUST HIS ARREST WARRANT, BUT ALSO THIS VISIT BETWEEN THE TWO OF THEM.
THIS IS WHAT HE IS JUST SAID ABOUT IT.
>> HE IS TRAVELING TO RUSSIA DAYS AFTER THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT ISSUED A ARREST WARRANT.
IS IT JUST CHINA FEELS NO RESPONSIBILITY TO HOLD HIM ACCOUNTABLE.
INSTEAD OF EVEN CONDEMNING THEM, IT WOULD RATHER PROVIDE DIPLOMATIC COVER TO CONTINUE TO COMMIT THOSE VERY CRIMES.
>> IS THAT WHAT YOU THINK IS DOING?
PROVIDING DIPLOMATIC COVER?
>> THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HE IS DOING.
THEY ARE REITERATING THE MESSAGE THAT THIS WAR IS THE WEST AND THE UNITED STATES FAULT FOR EXPANDING NATO.
INFRINGING ON THEIR RIGHTFUL SPHERES OF INFLUENCE.
IT IS JUST SHOWING THEY HAVE A UNITED FRONT AND TRYING TO SHIFT THE BLAME.
THEY ARE THE ACTORS APIECE AND THEY WERE FORCED INTO THIS CONFLICT BY THE ANIMOSITY SHOWN BY THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES.
>> LET'S USE OUR REMAINING MINUTES TO PROJECT FORWARD.
FROM WHERE YOU SIT, YOU TALK ABOUT YOUR FORMER COLLEAGUES IN GOVERNMENT.
ARE YOU GETTING ANY FEEDBACK FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE STILL THERE IN THE CIRCLE AND WHERE DO YOU THINK THIS IS GOING FOR THE KREMLIN BACKED OPERATION.
NOBODY IN THE CIRCLE.
EVERYBODY MORE OR LESS UNDERSTANDS WHATEVER TIME AND RESOURCES THEY CONTINUE WAR MAY TAKE, RUSSIA ALREADY LOST IT.
THERE EXTREMELY INCAPACITATED AND FEARFUL.
THEY ARE BEING WATCHED AND MONITORED BY SECURITY SERVICES DAY AND NIGHT.
TALKING TO EACH OTHER ABOUT THEIR DEFIANCE OF HIS POLICIES.
YOU DO NOT HAVE TO EXPECT ANYTHING FROM THEM EXCEPT MAYBE SOME SORT OF RETAIL IN STRIKE.
WE SEE A LOT OF THINGS ARE SLOWLY BUT SURELY COLLAPSING.
MAYBE IT IS ALSO THE RESULT OF THAT BEHAVIOR.
>> AGAIN, YOU'RE FOCUSED ON THE TITLE OF YOUR BOOK.
WHERE DO YOU THINK THEY SEE THE PATH TO WHATEVER HE IS TRYING TO DO.
MAYBE HE WILL TRY TO HAVE A PHONE CALL.
WHERE DO YOU SEE THIS GOING?
>> UNFORTUNATE DO NOT THINK IT WILL GO ANYWHERE GOOD ANYWHERE IN THE NEXT FIVE OR 10 YEARS.
AT THIS POINT THEY HAVE CLEARLY SHOWN THEY HAVE SEVERE CONFLICTS OF INTEREST.
CLASHING VISIONS OF INTERNATIONAL ORDER.
THEY ALSO HAVE A TERRITORIAL CONFLICT IN THE SHAPE OF TAIWAN WHICH HAS BEEN HEATING UP.
CHINA HAS BEEN CONDUCTING EVEN LARGER SHOWS OF FORCE.
WITH ELECTIONS COMING UP.
I EXPECT ON THE AMERICAN SIDE TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HOSTILITY SHOWN TOWARDS CHINA.
IT WILL BE A VERY COMBUSTIBLE MIX.
I DO NOT SEE ANY AVENUE FOR A REAL THONG.
>> IT IS ALL VERY DARK.
THANK YOU SO MUCH INDEED FOR JOINING US.
AS WE SAID OF COURSE, ALL OF THIS 20 YEARS AFTER THE IRAQI WAR THAT UPENDED SO MUCH ABOUT INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.
THE REAL COST CAN BE COUNTED IN LIVES LOST.
ESPECIALLY IN IRAQ.
IT GREW GREATER AS THE INSURGENCY GREW STRONGER.
THAT ALL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER THE INVASION.
>> ADRENALINE PUMPING.
STARTS HOUSE TO HOUSE RATES.
ACTING ON INTELLIGENCE.
FLUSHED OUT BY THE BOMBING PHASE.
OF THE GUERRILLA CELLS.
LET THEM SEARCH THE HOUSE.
IT IS HALF PAST MIDNIGHT AND EVERYONE IS ASLEEP ON THE FLOOR.
THIS WOMAN PROTECTS HER NEWBORN.
>> I REMEMBER THAT SO WELL.
SO MANY IRAQIS.
HE WATCHED AS HIS COUNTRY WAS TORN APART.
THEN BY THE US-LED OCCUPATION.
HIS NEW BOOK.
PAINTED TRAGIC PICTURE OF A COUNTRY THAT HAS BEEN DESTROYED BY WAR.
HE IS JOINING ME IN THE STUDIO.
YOU SAW THAT.
I'M SURE YOUR COMPANY SOME WESTERN JOURNALISTS WATCHING THAT HAPPEN ON A REGULAR BASIS.
HOW DID THAT KIND OF ATTACK ON IRAQI CIVILIANS SET THE PROCESS AND SOW THE SEEDS FOR THIS BACKLASH?
>> THAT WAS A HOUR OF FREEDOM WHEN THE DICTATORSHIP FELL.
SUDDENLY ALL THE SECURITY FORCES MELTED AND DISAPPEARED.
EVERYONE IS EXCITED.
NO ONE WANTED A WAR.
THIS WILL GET RID OF SADDAM.
LET'S GO THROUGH THE MOTIONS.
THEN YOU REALIZE EARLY ON THE ATTITUDE OF THE AMERICAN SOLDIERS.
I REMEMBER THE FIRST TIME I WAS DRIVING WITH A FRIEND.
OF COURSE THESE ARE HOW >> THEY THOUGHT THEY WERE GOING AFTER MILITANTS.
AS YOU CAN SEE THEY WERE GOING INTO HOUSES FULL OF CIVILIANS.
I REMEMBER BEING TERRIFIED.
I THINK YOU ARE FIVE YEARS OLD WHEN HE ROCK EVADED IRAN.
THAT LED TO SO MUCH OF THIS.
YOU INCLUDE ALL OF THAT IN YOUR BOOK.
WHY DO YOU GO AS FAR BACK AS THE IRAQI WAR.
>> AFTER 2003, THERE WAS THIS EASY WAY TO LOOK AT IT.
I WANTED TO TALK ABOUT IRAQ.
WHEN I WAS A CHILD.
I'VE SEEN NOTHING.
HE CAN'T BETRAY HIMSELF AS THE MANIFESTATION.
REPLAYING IT AGAIN AND AGAIN.
AND LED TO THE WAR OF KUWAIT.
DESTROYING THE IRAQI PEOPLE.
VERY SEVERE SANCTIONS.
2003 A ROCK IS A BROKEN NATION.
IT IS BARELY FUNCTIONING.
SUDDENLY WE ARE TAUGHT THIS WHOLE NARRATIVE OF 5000 YEARS OF CIVILIZATION IS NOT TRUE.
IT IS A VERY SECURE NARRATIVE.
EACH WILL TAKE A NUMBER OF MINISTRIES.
THAT RHETORIC THAT CAME AFTER THE WAR.
THANKS TO EXILE POLITICIANS.
THAT WAS THE FIRST STEP THAT FOLLOWED.
>> EXPLAIN WHEN YOU WOULD GO OUT WITH JOURNALIST.
YOU WOULD BE TRANSLATING FOR THE WESTERN JOURNALIST YOU ARE WORKING WHAT WOULD SOME OF THEIR FIRST QUESTIONS BE TO WHICH EVER IRAQI THEY WERE INTERVIEWING.
>> THE FIRST TIME I WAS ASKED TO TRANSLATE THIS QUESTION.
THE JOURNALIST ASKED ME TO ASKED HIM.
IT WAS A SHOCK FOR ME THE FIRST FEW TIMES.
IT IS A VERY QUESTION TO ASK IN A MODERN MIDDLE-CLASS SOCIETY.
I'M JUST SAYING IT DID NOT EXIST.
I WAS SHOCKED.
WHY DO I TALK ABOUT IRAQ OF THE 80s.
IN MY HIGH SCHOOL, WE WERE 40 STUDENTS.
STILL TODAY I DO NOT KNOW HAVE THEM.
THAT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO HIGHLIGHT.
OF COURSE WITHIN ONE YEAR, I STARTED LOOKING AT THE IRAQIS WITHIN THIS WHOLE FRAME.
I STARTED IDENTIFYING SOME THESE ISSUES.
I TOOK MANY YEARS TO COME OUT OF THAT.
>> THAT IS THE LEGACY OF THIS WAR.
>> THERE ARE TWO LEGACIES.
THERE IS THE POLITICAL LEGACY.
HALF OF THEM AROUND MALICIOUS.
EVERYONE IS CORRUPT.
THAT IS ONE LEGACY OF THE WAR.
THERE IS A NEW LEGACY WHICH IS THE YOUNG GENERATION THAT CAME OUT AFTER 2003.
WE SAW THIS MASSIVE POURING INTO THE STREET.
THERE WAS DEGENERATION FED UP WITH THIS POLITICAL NARRATIVE.
>> I SUPPOSE IT GOES TO THE HEART.
WHAT DO YOU MEAN EXACTLY BY THAT.
>> IMAGINE YOURSELF NEVER LEAVING IT FOR 28 YEARS.
IT IS A VERY OPEN CITY.
I WOULD SAY SOMETIMES IT IS A UGLY AND BORING CITY.
THAT WAS MY CITY AND I KNEW IT.
I GREW UP IN IT.
WITHIN TWO YEARS OF THE WAR, I CANNOT TRAVEL WITHOUT HAVING SOMEONE TO VOUCH FOR ME.
I REMEMBER THAT MOMENT IN LIFE.
WHEN I JUST WOKE UP IN MY BED AND REALIZED THIS IS NOT MY CITY ANYMORE.
I NEED TO CHANGE MY ID CARDS.
I NEED CONTACTS IN EVERY SINGLE STREET.
THAT IS THE LIFE OF ALL THE IRAQIS TRAPPED IN THIS WAR.
>> I THINK MANY AMERICANS MAY NOT FULLY REALIZE.
WE WERE OBVIOUSLY REPORTING IT THROUGHOUT THE YEARS SINCE THE INVASION.
THOUSANDS WOUNDED.
IN THE MANY YEARS OF THE OCCUPATION.
THE IED'S.
IT BLEW PEOPLE UP.
THEY HAD CATASTROPHIC INJURIES ON JOURNALIST AS WELL.
SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION OF 4000 AMERICANS.
IT WAS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF IRAQIS.
THEY ARE STILL SUFFERING FROM BURN PIT EXPOSURE AND ALL SORTS OF STUFF.
WERE YOU AWARE OF THAT LEVEL OF IRAQIS SUFFERING WHEN YOU ARE BEING A JOURNALIST?
>> OF COURSE THE AMERICAN SUFFERED.
WHAT WE SAW THE SUFFERING OF THE IRAQIS.
OF COURSE THE AMERICANS LEFT IN 2009.
THE IRAQIS CONTINUE TO DIE AND DIE IN MORE HORRIFIC NUMBERS THANKS TO THE EMERGENCE.
ALL THE REPERCUSSIONS.
TWO WEEKS AGO I WAS IN BAGHDAD.
I WAS WRITING ABOUT HIM.
HE IS A MILITIA COMMANDER.
HE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KILLING THOUSANDS OF IRAQIS.
20 YEARS LATER THERE IS NO ACCOUNTABILITY.
NONE OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLOT TO THE LORD LED THE WAR, IRAQIS WHO KILLED CIVILIANS.
THERE IS NO ACCOUNTABILITY.
THIS IS THE PROBLEM.
WHEN YOU ASK ABOUT THEM AMERICA, THEY WOULD JUST POINT TO THIS CORRUPT POLITICAL SYSTEM.
THEY BLAME AMERICA FOR BRINGING THAT.
WITHOUT HOLDING PEOPLE ACCOUNTABLE.
BEING HONEST.
>> I WAS KIND OF SHOCKED LISTENING TO QUITE A LOT OF THE REPORTS GOING ON RIGHT NOW IN THE 20th ANNIVERSARY.
ORDINARY PEOPLE SAYING, IN WAY WE MISS SADDAM HUSSEIN.
NOT BECAUSE HE WAS A GOOD LEADER, HE WAS A TYRANT, BUT AT LEAST THERE WAS ORDER.
>> 20 YEARS LATER.
YOU KNOW WHAT THIS WAR HAS ACHIEVED?
IT CREATED THIS NOSTALGIA FOR THE STRONG MARK.
OF COURSE ALL THE DICTATORS.
ALL THE DICTATORS BENEFIT FROM THAT ILLUSION.
HE WOULD STOP A CIVIL WAR.
THAT IS THE DISASTER.
OF COURSE THE WHOLE IDEA OF DEMOCRACY HAS BEEN TAINTED IN IRAQ.
WHEN YOU GO TO THE YOUNG GENERATION.
TELL THEM ELECTION.
THOSE KIND OF CORRUPT PEOPLE.
THAT IS ANOTHER BIG OF THE INVASION AND OCCUPATION.
PEOPLE ARE YEARNING FOR A STRONG COMMAND.
>> THAT IS A TERRIBLE LEGACY.
IN YOUR BOOK YOU TALK ABOUT WHEN YOU AMERICANS FINALLY GOT TO BAGHDAD.
YOU DESCRIBED IN GREAT DETAIL AND WATCHING.
WE ALL WATCHED IT.
BASICALLY HELPED HER THE STATUE DOWN.
NO, YOU CANNOT BE DOING THIS.
AT LEAST ALLOW THE FACADE OF LIBERATION TO LAST FOR DAY.
WITH ALL THE ARROGANCE OF EVERY OCCUPYING SOLDIER, HE COVERED THE FACE WITH THE FLAG OF HIS VICTORIOUS NATION.
LONG ENOUGH TO SEAL THE FATE OF THE INVASION IN THE EYES OF MANY.
YOU THEN CALLED IT A HONEST ACT.
NO I REMEMBER AMERICAN OFFICIALS IN WASHINGTON WERE HORRIFIED.
TRYING TO SEND A MESSAGE TO STOP THAT.
GET THAT FLAG OFF BECAUSE THIS WAS NOT ABOUT AMERICA.
>> THIS IS WHY I THINK HE WAS VERY HONEST.
HE DID NOT BELIEVE COMING FROM WASHINGTON OR WHAT THE PEOPLE WERE TALK ABOUT.
HE SOUGHT HIS WAR BETWEEN HIS ARMY AND THE IRAQIS.
IF ALL THE RHETORIC COMING AROUND.
THE LIBERATION.
PROSPERITY AND WHATNOT, THAT ACT OF THE MARINE.
AS HORRIFIED AS IT WAS ON TV, IT WAS A VERY HONEST ACT.
IT IS NOT THE IRAQIS THAT TOPPLED THE STATUTE.
EVEN THE ACT OF BRINGING DOWN THE STATUE IS NOT DONE BY THE IRAQIS.
>> IT WAS QUITE CLEAR TO THOSE OF US THAT THERE WAS A IS INSURGENCY GROWING.
IS SORT OF STARTED WITH THE COMPLETE LACK OF CONTROL AND AWARENESS THAT THERE WAS A INSURGENCY.
THE MANIFESTATIONS OF LOOTING WERE YOU CONCERNED AND WHERE DID YOU THINK IT WOULD LEAD AT THAT TIME.
DID YOU THINK IT WHATEVER LEAD IN THE END?
>> MAYBE NO ONE COULD HAVE IMAGINED.
IT WAS OBVIOUS THE AMERICANS HAD NO SECURITY PLAN.
THE BORDERS WERE OPEN.
THAT INCLUDES THE JIHADIST.
ALSO THE IRANIANS WORKING VERY HARD.
WE SHOULD MAKE THEM.
ALL THESE DIFFERENT FORCES.
AGAIN THE RHETORIC OF THE POLITICAL POWERS.
BECAUSE.
BY ASSOCIATION ALL OF THEM MUST BE GUILTY OF HIS ATROCITIES.
USING IT AS A WAY TO TORMENT OF COURSE THEY WILL TAKE A POSITION TOWARDS THE GOVERNMENT.
YOU SAW THE RECIPES OF A CIVIL WAR.
>> BUSH AND HIS GOVERNMENT WERE BASICALLY SAYING, DEMOCRACY WILL GO THROUGH BACK THAT.
YOU HEARD HIM SAYING THIS IS GOING TO BE A GREAT WATERSHED MOMENT.
COULD IT HAVE BEEN ANY DIFFERENT?
EVEN THOUGH THE WAR WAS BASED ON A LIE, A POSTWAR PLAN THAT WAS COHERENT AND CREDIBLE MAY HAVE MADE THE BEST OUT OF A TERRIBLE SITUATION.
>> FOR A FEW MONTHS I THOUGHT OF THAT.
IF ONLY THE AMERICANS WOULD DO SO.
MAYBE THE PEOPLE.
A DECADE LATER I REALIZED YOU CANNOT BOMB A NATION.
BOMBING AGAIN AND, THIS VERY CLUMSY PLAN.
ILLEGAL OCCUPATION INTO A DEMOCRACY.
THIS IS HISTORY.
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER ILLEGAL INVASION TAKING PLACE AT THE MOMENT.
THERE IS NO LEGITIMACY TO THAT.
HE CAN NEVER CREATE ANY LEGITIMACY.
>> THAT HE THROWS THAT INVASION IN THE FACE OF AMERICANS.
DEMOCRACY FAILED BECAUSE PEOPLE WILL POINT AT IRAQ AND SAY THIS IS THE DEMOCRACY YOU WANT.
BECAUSE THERE WAS NO ACCOUNTABILITY.
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER VICTIM.
EVERY SINGLE DICTATOR.
LOOK AT WHAT DID THE AMERICANS DO.
>> IT IS A TRAGEDY.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED FOR BEING WITH US.
>> WHERE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE IRAQ WAR ARE STILL BEING FELT.
HE HAS NEVER ADMITTED THAT HIS WAR WAS A MISTAKE.
I LIKE HIS OFFICIALS.
OUR NEXT GUEST TACKLES THE QUESTION OF RESPONSIBILITY AND ACCOUNTABILITY IN HIS NEW BOOK.
HERE HE IS NOW.
>> THANK YOU.
WELCOME TO THE SHOW.
>> DELIGHTED TO BE WITH YOU.>> TODAY MARKS THE 20th ANNIVERSARY OF THE INVASION OF IRAQ.
YOU'RE RIGHT THAT WAS THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY ACT OF THE 21st CENTURY.
WHAT WERE THE CONSEQUENCES?
>> THERE WERE MANY.
FIRST OFF KEEP IN MIND THAT IT LED TO THE DEATHS OF OVER 200,000 IRAQIS AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF ABOUT 9 MILLION IRAQIS.
IT LED TO THE DEATHS OF APPROXIMATELY 9000 AMERICAN SOLDIERS AND PRIVATE CONTRACTORS.
IT WILL COST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE OVER TIME APPROXIMATELY $2 TRILLION.
GEOPOLITICALLY IT HAS SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES AS WELL.
A DIVERTED AMERICAN ATTENTION FROM THE ONGOING WAR IN AFGHANISTAN.
IT ALLOWED IRAN TO BECOME PREDOMINANT IN THE PERSIAN GULF.
IT DIVIDED AMERICA FROM ITS EUROPEAN ALLIES.
HOWEVER BRIEFLY.
A DISTRACTED THE ATTENTION FROM THE RISE OF CHINA.
FROM RUSSIA.
GEOPOLITICALLY, HE HAD SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES AS WELL.
>> THEN WE THINK THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN WAS A REALLY BAD THREAT AND WE HAD TO DO THIS?
WERE THESE WELL-INTENTIONED DECISIONS?
>> YES THEY WERE.
AS I DESCRIBED IN MY BOOK, HE WAS A BRUTAL CRUEL DICTATOR WHO HAD DEVELOPED WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND WHO HAS USED THEM.
MANY CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS.
BOTH AGAINST HIS OWN PEOPLE AND THE IRANIANS.
HE HAD LIED ABOUT HIS WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
HE HAD CONCEALED THEM.
HE WAS OVERALL A CHARACTER WHO COULD NOT AT ALL BE TRUSTED.
I THINK WHAT I TRY TO PERCENT IN MY BOOK IS THAT THERE WERE GOOD REASONS FOR AMERICAN POLICYMAKERS TO BE EXTREMELY DISTRUSTFUL AND SUSPICIOUS OF HIM.
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SHOCK OF 9- 11.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN I AM WRITING THAT THE WAR WAS JUSTIFIED.
IT DOES MEAN THAT POLICYMAKERS WERE ACTING OUT OF GOOD INTENTIONS.
THEY CERTAINLY WANTED TO PREVENT THE UNITED STATES FROM SUFFERING ANOTHER ATTACK LIKE THE 199-11.
>> I WANT TO DRILL DOWN ON THE QUESTION OF WHY DID GEORGE W. BUSH DO THIS?
THERE ARE MANY THEORIES WEAVING THROUGH YOUR BOOK AND OTHER PLACES.
SOME OF WHICH HAD TO DO WITH HIS FATHER.
THE WAY HIS FATHER CONDUCTED THE FIRST GULF WAR.
SOME SAY IT WAS ADVISORS LIKE THAT WHO DROVE HIM INTO IT.
WHO HAD UNDUE INFLUENCE ON HIM.
SOME SAY IT WAS A HOPE FOG IN CONFUSION.
SOME SAY HE REALLY DID BELIEVE IN DEMOCRACY PROMOTION.
THAT HE WOULD CREATE DEMOCRACY.
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE MOTIVATIONS REALLY WORK?
>> THE OVERRIDING MOTIVATION WAS HERE AND A SENSE OF RESPONSIBILITY TO PREVENT ANOTHER ATTACK.
THE ALLEGATIONS THAT HE WAS TRYING TO REDRESS THE MISTAKES OF HIS FATHER OR GET EVEN WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN FOR HIS EFFORT TO ASSASSINATE HIS FATHER.
THERE SEEMS TO BE NO CREDIBLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THOSE WERE REAL FACTORS.
PRESIDENT BUSH REALLY WAS EXTRAORDINARILY WORRIED ABOUT ANOTHER ATTACK.
HE HAD REASON TO BE WORRIED ABOUT IT.
BASED ON EVIDENCE THAT AL QAEDA DID SEEK TO ATTACK THE UNITED STATES AGAIN.
THE NOTIONS THAT DICK CHENEY WAS MAKING POLICY.
THOSE GENERALIZATIONS ARE SIMPLY NOT WELL-FOUNDED IF YOU LOOK CAREFULLY AT THE EVIDENCE.
THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT HE WAS MOTIVATED PRINCIPALLY BY FEAR.
PRESIDENT BUSH ALSO BELIEVED HE HAD THE CAPACITY AND CAPABILITIES.
THE POWER TO DEAL WITH THIS PERCEPTION OF THREAT.
IT IS REALLY FEAR AND POWER.
THAT MOTIVATED HIM.
>> IN YOUR BOOK, THERE IS A SCENE THAT ILLUSTRATES ONE OF THE FEELINGS THAT HAPPEN IN U.S. POLICY.
I WOULD LIKE TO HAVE YOU DISCUSS IT.
YOU TALK ABOUT PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH SAYING CAN WE WIN.
HE SAYS CAN WE GET RID OF SADDAM HUSSEIN?
>> YES.
THEN YOU SAY THE PRESIDENT DID NOT ASK WHAT 10.
WHY WAS THAT THE PROBLEM?
>> THAT WAS A TREMENDOUS PROBLEM.
THERE WAS AN ADEQUATE ATTENTION.
TO WHAT THE WAR PLAN IS DEFINED AS PHASE 4 OF THE WAR EFFORT.
THE POSTWAR STABILIZATION AND RECONSTRUCTION TIME PERIOD.
OTHER TOP OFFICIALS.
THEY ACTUALLY SPENT A LOT OF TIME TALKING ABOUT THE INITIAL PHASES OF THE WAR PLAN.
WHAT WOULD BE REQUIRED TO TOPPLE SADDAM HUSSEIN.
THEY DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO PRESERVE ORDER AND STABILITY.
ENSURE SECURITY IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE GOVERNMENT BEING TOPPLED.
THERE WAS ENORMOUS CONFUSION.
THERE WAS ENORMOUS CHAOS.
ENORMOUS DISORDER.
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE REGIME WAS TOPPLED.
THE UNITED STATES DID NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TROOPS WERE SUFFICIENT PLANES TO REALLY DEAL WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE SITUATION.
THE ADMINISTRATION MUST BE HELD RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INADEQUATE PLANNING FOR PHASE 4.
>> ISN'T THAT WHY WE HAVE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY?
WHY DID THE CIA KNOW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE WAR.
>> THAT IS A VERY DIFFICULT THING TO DO.
PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS INFUSED WITH INCOME DRIBBLES.
ONE MUST SAY THAT MAY HAPPEN AFTER THE WAR MIGHT HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFERENT IF THE UNITED STATES HAS SUFFICIENT FORCES TO PRESERVE ORDER IMMEDIATELY.
IT IS THE ROLE OF THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY TO TRY TO PREDICT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN.
IN FACT IN JANUARY 2003, THERE WERE 2 INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS THAT IN BROAD STROKES DID NOT PREDICT THAT THERE WOULD BE THE TYPE OF CHAOS THAT EMERGED BUT SUGGESTED THAT IT WAS A POSSIBILITY.
THE TOP POLICYMAKERS DID NOT REALLY PAY ENOUGH ATTENTION TO WHAT WAS LIKELY TO HAPPEN.
THEY DID NOT PAY ATTENTION TO THOSE TWO INTELLIGENT REPORTS THAT EMERGED IN JANUARY OF 2003.
ONE OF THE POINTS TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE POLICYMAKERS FOR EXAMPLE IN THE STATE DEPARTMENT.
SOME OF HIS SUBORDINATES IN THE POLICY PLANNING STAFF IN THE DIVISION.
THESE PEOPLE WERE VERY SKEPTICAL OF GOING INTO IRAQ.
VERY SKEPTICAL.
THEY NEVER PRESENTED A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF WHAT WAS LIKELY TO HAPPEN.
>> LET ME READ YOU A SENTENCE.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO SET A STORY RIGHT.
WITH THE DILEMMAS OF STATECRAFT.
BY SIMPLIFYING THE STORY.
IF WE ONLY HAD MORE HONEST OFFICIALS.
A WISER POLICYMAKER.
WHY WAS IT NOT TRUE.
>> IT IS BECAUSE BEING WISE IS DIFFICULT.
WHEN I TRIED TO SHOW IN THIS BOOK.
DECISION-MAKING IS TOUGH.
THEY ARE REAL LESSONS TO BE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THIS DECISION TO GO TO WAR.
AMERICAN POLICYMAKERS NEED TO BE ABLE TO CALCULATE THREATS MORE CAREFULLY.
AMERICANS NEED TO MODULATE THEIR FEARS.
THEY NEED TO BE ABLE TO DETERMINE MUCH MORE ACCURATELY.
WHEN THERE IS OR IS NOT A EXISTENTIAL THREAT.
THEY ALSO NEED TO GRASP THE LIMITS OF AMERICAN POWER.
THE UNITED STATES HAD THE POWER.
AMERICAN POLICYMAKERS THOUGHT THEY COULD ACHIEVE WHAT THEY WANTED TO ACHIEVE.
THEY PERCEIVED THREATS.
FROM A PRETTY WEAK NATION OVERALL.
THEY BELIEVE THE EXERCISE OF THEIR POWER WOULD ENABLE THEM RELATIVELY EASILY TO REMOVE THE THREAT THAT THEY PERCEIVED.
ANOTHER LESSON WOULD BE RE- EXAMINED FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTIONS.
THAT IS EASY FOR ME TO SAY.
IT IS EASY FOR MOST PEOPLE TO AGREE.
HOW MANY EXAMINE FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTIONS.
THAT ASSUMPTION SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAREFULLY READ EXAMINE.
THEY DID NOT RE-EXAMINE IT.
SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
>> HE SAID IT WAS THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL FOREIGN POLICY DECISION.
HOW DID IT REVERBERATE.
AND OTHER THINGS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN DIFFERENT.
>> I THINK THEY HAD PROFOUND INFLUENCE ON PRESIDENT OBAMA'S INCLINATIONS TO GET DEEPLY INVOLVED.
IN SYRIA.
IT CERTAINLY INFLUENCED HIS INITIAL ACTIONS TO WITHDRAW COMPLETELY FROM IRAQ.
THEREBY PROVIDING OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ISLAMIC STATE.
TO GAIN MORE AND MORE POWER IN THE REGION.
BEFORE THEY WERE REINSERTED TO STIFLE AND TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE.
>> WAS THAT A MISTAKE?
I THINK MANY EXPERTS NOW FEEL THE TOTAL WITHDRAWAL.
PROBABLY WAS AN ERROR.
THAT WAS NOT TO SAY THAT PEOPLE THINK ARE I THINK THERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN A CONTINUED DEPLOYMENT OF LARGE NUMBERS OF COMBAT TROOPS.
THE CRITICAL FACTOR WAS RATHER TO KEEP IN A SMALL NUMBER OF TROOPS.
THE REALLY BAD PROBLEM THAT WE HAD AFTER THE IRAQI INVASION HAS MADE THE UNITED STATES ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
HOW WE DO NOT KNOW HOW TO CALIBRATE INVOLVEMENTS?
>> IT IS CHASING THE UNITED STATES.
IT HAS MADE POLICYMAKERS THINK VERY DEEPLY ABOUT THE USE OF FORCE.
I THINK THAT IS A GOOD LESSON.
I THINK PEOPLE SHOULD THINK DEEPLY.
FROM THE PERSPECTIVE USE OF FORCE.
IT ALSO CLEARLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RISE OF THE AMERICA FIRST.
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP CERTAINLY CAMPAIGNED ON THE NOTION THAT THE FOREVER WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ WERE TOTALLY INCONSISTENT WITH AMERICAN INTEREST.
LED TO COMMITMENTS THAT WERE TOTALLY SELF-DEFEATING.
MUCH OF THE GROWING AMERICAN FIRST, MUCH OF THE PRESENT AMERICAN HESITATION.
ESPECIALLY ON THE FAR RIGHT.
EVEN TO GIVE ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE AT THIS VERY MOMENT.
IT GOES BACK TO WHAT DONALD TRUMP AND HIS SUPPORTERS BELIEVE ARE THE LESSONS OF A HANDSTAND AND YOU ROCK.
STAY OUT OF THESE CONFLICTS.
THEY HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH U.S. INTEREST.
THESE PROBLEMS DO AFFECT AMERICAN INTEREST.
THE CHALLENGE FOR POLICYMAKERS.
THE CHALLENGE FOR YOU AND ME IS TO DETERMINE PRECISELY WHAT IS THE NATURE OF OUR INTEREST.
ETC.
HOW IMPORTANT IS THAT INTEREST.
THEN TO DEFINE TACTICS.
WITH THOSE INTEREST.
I WOULD SAY TODAY, PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN IS CAREFULLY CALCULATING THESE ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE.
HE UNDERSTANDS THAT UNDETERRED AGGRESSION.
THAT RUSSIAN AGGRESSION LEFT UNMET IS A DANGEROUS PRECEDENT.
BOTH FOR YOUR AND WHAT MAY HAPPEN IN EAST ASIA.
HE UNDERSTANDS THAT.
I THINK HE IS RIGHT ABOUT THAT.
AT THE SAME TIME, HE IS CAREFULLY TRIED TO CALCULATE THAT EVEN THOUGH THAT IS A IMPORTANT INTEREST.
THE PRIORITY IS TO NOT GET ENGAGED IN A FULL-SCALE WAR WITH RUSSIA BECAUSE THAT MAY CULMINATE IN THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
I SEE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN TRYING CAREFULLY TO CALCULATE THE NATURE OF AMERICAN INTEREST AND TO PRIORITIZE THEM AND DESIGN TECH TAKES THAT ARE COMMENSURATE WITH THE PRIORITIES HE IS ASSIGNING TO THOSE INTEREST.
I THINK THAT IS THE LESSONS TO BE LEARNED HERE.
IT IS NOT YES WE HAVE A INTEREST OR WE DO NOT HAVE A INTEREST.
WE HAVE INTEREST IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
THE CHALLENGE IS HOW GREAT ARE THOSE INTEREST AND WHAT SORTS OF TAX X SHOULD BE EMPLOYED.
>> PROFESSOR, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.
>> IT HAS BEEN A GREAT PLEASURE TALKING TO YOU.
>> WE LEAVE YOU ON A BIT OF A LIGHTER NOTE.
THE FUNNY GUY ACTOR BROUGHT HOME THE PRESTIGIOUS MARK TWAIN NIGHT.
IN TRUE FASHION, HE TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE EVERYONE LAUGH INCLUDING HIMSELF.
>> MY FIRST THOUGHT WHEN THEY TOLD ME I WAS GETTING THIS PRESTIGIOUS HONOR WAS WELL, IS HE GOING TO BE THERE?
NO SAID THE KENNEDY CENTER PEOPLE TO WHICH I REPLIED, MAKES SENSE.
>> THE CEREMONY HOSTED BY THE JOHN F. KENNEDY CENTER WAS A STAR-STUDDED AFFAIR.
THEY ALL PAID TRIBUTE.
HE PAID TRIBUTE TO HIS OWN WIFE HIM THE CONFIDENCE AND MAKING HIM FEEL THE BEST.
THAT IS IF OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.
SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER.
THANK YOU FOR WATCHING.