>>> NEW COVID VARIANT IS FUELING A RESURGENCE OF THE VIRUS AS IT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.
FOR YEARS ON, WE STILL DON'T KNOW HOW THE PANDEMIC STARTED.
AUTHOR AND JOURNALIST INVESTIGATED IT'S UNKNOWN ORIGINS.
HE JOINS WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL THEORIES.
>> THANK YOU.
WELCOME TO THE SHOW.
>> THANK YOU, WALTER.
IT IS GOOD TO BE WITH YOU.
>> YOU WITNESSED GREAT PEACE EXPLORING THE ONGOING MYSTERIES OF OF ITS ORIGINS.
I FOLLOWED YOU FOR A LONG TIME EVER SENT YOU WROTE SPILLOVER 10 OR 12 YEARS AGO ABOUT HOW VIRUSES CAN TRANSMIT FROM ANIMALS.
TELL ME HOW YOUR THINKING HAS EVOLVED IN THE LAST YEAR ON WHETHER THIS CORONAVIRUS WAS A LAB LEAK FROM THE CHINESE LAB OR WHETHER IT WAS A SPILLOVER FROM ANIMALS IN THE MARKETPLACE IN CHINA.
>> MY THINKING HAS EVOLVED WITH THE INCREASE OF DATA, WITH THE INCREASE OF SCIENTIFICALLY PUBLISHED RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS ON THE VARIOUS DIFFERENT HYPOTHESES.
AS YOU KNOW, THERE ARE THREE HYPOTHESES THAT HAVE BEEN BANDIED ABOUT FOR THE ORIGIN OF THIS VIRUS.
DID IT SPILLOVER FROM A WILD ANIMAL INTO THE HUMAN POPULATIONS OR WAS IT ENGINEERED THROUGH SOME SORT OF A THAT THE VARIOUS RESEARCH PROGRAM TO HARM HUMANS AND RELEASED EITHER INTENTIONALLY OR BY ACCIDENT AFTER HAVING BEEN ENGINEERED?
OR WAS IT A VIRUS THAT WAS BEING WORKED ON IN A LABORATORY POSSIBLY FOR LEGITIMATE PURPOSES AND THEN ACCIDENTALLY LEAK FROM A LAB?
AS YOU MENTIONED, I HAVE WRITTEN IN THE PAST ABOUT HOW FREQUENTLY AND WITH WHAT CONSEQUENCES VIRUSES SPILLOVER FROM WILD ANIMALS.
IT HAPPENS ALL THE TIME AND MOST OF THE NEW DISEASES THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST 50 YEARS HAVE HAPPENED THAT WAY.
BUT THERE WAS ARGUMENT THAT THIS MIGHT HAVE SPILLED OVER FROM A LAB AND I AGREED WITH THOSE WHO SAID WE NEED TO KEEP OUR MINDS OPEN ABOUT THAT UNTIL WE HAVE MORE EVIDENCE.
AND THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING ARGUMENT ABOUT THAT .
THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING PUBLIC EMBRACE OF THE LAB LEAK HYPOTHESIS.
AND YET, I SO KNOW INCREASING EVIDENCE FOR IT.
I SAW NO POSITIVE EVIDENCE AT ALL.
AS I WROTE THIS PIECE BECAUSE I WAS PUZZLED BY THIS CONUNDRUM.
WHY IS IT THAT THE PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE SEEMS TO BE ON THE SIDE OF NATURAL ORIGINS BUT THE PREPONDERANCE OF PUBLIC OPINION IS ON THE SIDE OF LAB LEAK?
>> LET ME PUSH BACK A BIT.
IF IT WERE INDEED A SPILLOVER FROM A NATURAL ANIMAL AND IT JUST EVOLVED, WHY HAVEN'T WE FOUND THE ANIMALS OR EVEN TRACES OF THE ANIMALS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN THE INTERMEDIATE STEPS?
>> THAT IS A GOOD AND IMPORTANT QUESTION.
3 1/2 YEARS HAVE GONE BY AND THE ANIMAL OR ANIMALS FROM WHICH THE VIRUS CLOSELY RESEMBLING THIS MAY HAVE SPILLED OVER HAVE NOT BEEN FOUND.
THE ANIMAL HAS NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED.
BUT TO TAKE THAT AS SIGNIFICANT OR EVEN SUSPICIOUS REQUIRES AND ENDURANCE OF THE HISTORY OF EMERGING VIRUSES.
AS I SAY IN THE PEACE, FINDING THE ANIMAL HOST , THE NATURAL ANIMAL RESERVOIR OF THE ORIGINAL SARS VIRUS FROM 2003, THAT TOOK 15 YEARS.
MARBURG VIRUS SPILLED OVER INTO HUMANS BACK IN 1967 AND IT TOOK 42 YEARS FOR SCIENCE TO IDENTIFY THE NATURAL HOST OF THAT , THE EGYPTIAN FRUIT BATS.
EBOLA FIRST SPILLED OVER AND WAS RECOGNIZED IN HUMANS IN 1976 AND WE STILL DON'T KNOW WHAT THE NATURAL HOST OF THE EBOLA VIRUS IS.
SO IF YOU ARE LUCKY, YOU CAN SOLVE THAT MYSTERY IN A SHORT TIME.
AND THAT HAS HAPPENED WITH SOME OF THESE NATURAL VIRUSES.
BUT IF YOU ARE NOT LUCKY, IT CAN TAKE DECADES .
>> IF THIS WERE JUST AN INNOCENT THING LIKE A SPILLOVER FROM NATURAL CAUSES, WHY HAVE THE CHINESE BEEN SO DIFFICULT?
SO HARD AT GIVING EVIDENCE OF WHAT THEY WERE DOING IN THAT LAB WHERE THEY WERE, INDEED, EXPERIMENTING ON VIRUSES?
>> YOU ARE RIGHT, THE CHINESE LACK OF TRANSPARENCY, CONSTRAINTS ON INFORMATION IMPOSED BY CHINESE OFFICIALDOM AT THE LOCAL PROVINCIAL AND NATIONAL LEVEL HAVE DEPRIVED US OF IMPORTANT EVIDENCE.
IMPORTANT EVIDENCE THAT MAY HAVE SUPPORTED ANY OF THESE HYPOTHESES I MENTIONED THAT IS A REAL PROBLEM.
WE HAVE NEEDED MORE INFORMATION FROM THE CHINESE AND WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN IT.
CHINESE SCIENTISTS, SOME OF THEM HAVE RISK THEIR CAREERS AND EVEN THEIR FREEDOM TO SHARE INFORMATION WITH THEIR WESTERN SCIENTIFIC COLLEAGUES BUT CHINESE OFFICIALDOM HAS STOPPED THE FLOW OF EVIDENCE IN A WAY THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUSPICIONS ABOUT CHINESE MOTIVE.
I POINT OUT IN THE PIECE THAT CHINESE OFFICIALDOM WOULD HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO COVER UP EVIDENCE OF A LAB LEAK BUT CHINESE OFFICIALDOM WOULD ALSO HAVE INCENTIVE TO COVER UP EVIDENCE OF A SPILLOVER FROM ILLEGALLY TRADED WILD ANIMALS .
SO CHINESE LACK OF TRANSPARENCY , LACK OF COOPERATION IS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR BUT IT DOESN'T REALLY PROVE ONE HYPOTHESIS VERSUS ANOTHER >> WITH THEY HAVE MUCH MORE INCENTIVE TO COVER UP EVIDENCE THAT WAS A LAB LEAK AND THINGS THEY WERE DOING IN A LAB THAT WERE SAFE THAN IF IT CAME FROM AN ANIMAL?
THE INCENTIVES WOULD BE PRETTY STRONG TO COVER UP A LAB LEAK.
>> WELL, THEY WOULD BE.
THEY ARE STRONG ALSO TO COVER UP A MARKET LEAK.
THERE IS A $70 BILLION TRADE AGAINST LIVING WILD ANIMALS CAPTURED FROM THE WILD AND SOME OF THEM RAISED IN CAPTIVITY.
$70 BILLION TRADE IN CHINA, WILD ANIMALS FOR FOOD AND FOR TRADITIONAL CHINESE MEDICINE.
SO I SUPPOSE YOU COULD SAY THE DEVASTATION THAT HAS HAPPENED TO THE HUMAN POPULATION AROUND THE WORLD , MILLIONS AND MILLIONS DEAD AND MANY MORE A MILLION SICKENED, THAT IS A HUGE INCENTIVE FOR THE CHINESE TO SAY IT WASN'T DOES .
IT IS NOT OUR FAULT.
WHETHER OR NOT IT IS A MATTER OF RESEARCH IN A LABORATORY THAT LED TO A LAB LEAK OR THIS TRADE IN WILD ANIMALS.
EITHER WAY, IT SEEMS TO ME THERE IS GREAT IT'S A FOR COVER- UP .
>> ONE OF THE THINGS FUELING THE CONTROVERSY ARE THINGS THAT LIKE THROUGH THE ECHO HEALTH ALLIANCE, THE LABS WERE FUNDED IN CHINA AND THROUGH THE ECHO HEALTH ALLIANCE, SOME NATURAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH AND THE GOVERNMENT, ONE OF THE PEOPLE SCIENTIST AND YOU TALK TO HER.
EXPLAIN TO ME WHAT SHE TOLD YOU.
>> I SPENT TWO HOURS ON A ZOOM CALL AND SHE TOLD ME, WE WERE NOT WORKING ON THIS VIRUS IN OUR LABORATORY.
SHE MAKES A LIVING AND HAS FOR 15 YEARS BY STUDYING CORONAVIRUS'S CARRIED BY WILD ANIMALS IN PARTICULAR BATS AND IDENTIFYING WHICH ONES PRESENT A THREAT TO HUMANS.
AND SHE WRITES PAPERS SAYING WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT THESE CORONAVIRUS IS IN BAD.
THAT IS HOW SHE MAKES HER LIVING, THAT IS HOW HER CAREER ADVANCES.
THAT IS HER PASSION ABOUT VIRUSES AND PARTICULARLY VIRUSES CARRIED BY WILD ANIMALS AND PARTICULARLY, BATS .
SHE RUSHED BACK TO HER LAB FROM THE CONFERENCE IN SHANGHAI, SHE LOOKED THROUGH HER NOTEBOOKS, SHE TALKED TO HER PEOPLE JUST TO CONFIRM , AT THAT POINT, THEY HAD A GENOME SEQUENCE SO THEY KNEW WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE.
IN GREAT DETAIL.
SHE LOOKED AT HER RECORDS AND SHE TOLD ME AND SHE TOLD JOHN: , A VERY RESPECTED REPORTER FOR THE JOURNAL SCIENCE THAT THIS VIRUS WAS NEVER IN HER LABORATORY.
SHE HAD NEVER WORKED ON THIS VIRUS.
>> DON'T WE HAVE SOME EVIDENCE THAT PEOPLE IN THAT LAB MAY HAVE GOTTEN THE ACTED?
>> THAT IS AN ACCUSATION THAT WAS MADE IN AN ARTICLE THAT WAS PUT UP ON SUBS: JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO BY THREE AUTHORS AND THEY SAID THERE ARE THREE SCIENTISTS WHO WERE WORKING IN THE LAB AND ONE OF THEM IS A FELLOW NAMED BEN HU WHO WAS THE FIRST AUTHOR IN 2017 AND THEY SAID, WE HAVE EVIDENCE BUT WE CANNOT TELL YOU WHAT IT IS FROM GOVERNMENT SOURCES THAT BEN AND THESE OTHER TWO PEOPLE WERE SICK IN NOVEMBER OF 2019 WITH CORONAVIRUS-LIKE SYMPTOMS.
THIS WAS PUBLISHED.
MADE A BIG SPLASH.
AND THEN, WITHIN A FEW DAYS, BEEN DOSED DOSED BEN HU AND SAID NOT ONLY WAS I NOT SICK IN NOVEMBER AND CERTAINLY NOT SICK WITH COLD-LIKE SYMPTOMS, THAT JUST DIDN'T HAPPEN.
BUT I WAS TESTED FOR COVID ANTIBODIES IN MARCH OF 2020 AND I TESTED NEGATIVE .
SO THAT WAS A VERY INFLAMMATORY ASSERTION ABOUT THESE PEOPLE THAT HAS BEEN REFUTED .
>> AS YOU WRITE ABOUT IT, A VERY FAMOUS SCIENTIFIC ARTICLE EARLY ON CALLED PROXIMAL ORIGINS.
IN OTHER WORDS, A GROUP OF SCIENTISTS SAID HOW DID THIS THING ORIGINATE?
AND THAT ASSAY, THAT SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL PEACE PRETTY MUCH SAID THAT IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE IT WAS A PROBLEM FROM A's ROLLOVER FROM A MARKET PLACE AND IT HAD NATURAL ORIGINS.
AND THAT WAS PRETTY CONVINCING.
IT CONVINCED ME, IT CONVINCED A LOT OF PEOPLE.
I KNOW YOU SUPPORTED IT.
BUT SINCE THEN, WE HAVE SEEN SOME THINGS AND AT LEAST SOME THINGS THAT I HAVE FOUND TROUBLING AND YOU READ ABOUT IT IN THE PIECE WHICH IS ALL OF THESE EMAILS SAYING WE ARE BEING PUSHED INTO THIS.
ANTHONY FAUCI AND FRANCIS COLIN OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT KIND OF ENCOURAGING IT , WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT?
>> ALL OF THAT REVOLVES AROUND A PHONE CALL, A CONFERENCE CALL THAT OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 1st OF 2020.
THE AUTHORS OF THAT SCIENTIFIC ARTICLE, EDDIE HOLMES, CHRISTIAN ANDERSON, ROBERT GARY, IAN LIPKIN AND ANDREW RAMBO WERE CONFERRING WITH ONE ANOTHER FROM DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD, TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE GENOME OF THIS VIRUS TOLD THEM ABOUT WHERE IT MAY HAVE COME FROM AND THEY FOUND TWO PECULIAR FEATURES , UNEXPECTED FEATURES.
ONE CALLED A RECEPTOR BINDING DOMAIN THAT ALLOWS THE VIRUS TO LATCH ONTO A CELL AND EFFECT IT PENETRATE THE CELL AND IT'S GENOME .
A FELONY NAMED JEREMY FERRARA, A PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIAL, HEAD OF A VAST FOUNDATION , A HEALTH RESEARCH FOUNDATION , BUT TRUST, CONVENED THIS PHONE CALL.
AND THERE WERE MORE THAN A DOZEN PEOPLE ON THIS CALL INCLUDING TONY FAUCI, INCLUDING FRANCIS COLLINS OF THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF HEALTH, INCLUDING THE SCIENTISTS I JUST MENTIONED AND A NUMBER OF OTHER SCIENTISTS .
SO THE ARGUMENTS ABOUT WHETHER THESE FELLOWS WERE MANIPULATED, WERE PRESSURED TO CALL THIS A NATURAL SPILLOVER REVOLVE AROUND THAT CALL.
AND I TALKED TO ALL FIVE OF THOSE SCIENTISTS ABOUT THE PHONE CALL.
I TALKED TO TONY FAUCI ABOUT THE PHONE CALL AND SOME OTHER CALL.
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTISTS SUCH AS CHRISTIAN JOHNSON AND GERMANY AND MARION COOPER IN THE NETHERLANDS , THEY WERE DISCUSSING THIS QUESTION OF WHERE THIS VIRUS CAME FROM .
WHERE THESE TWO FEATURES CAME FROM.
THE CRITICS SAY THAT TONY FAUCI AND FRANCIS COLLINS PRESSURED THESE PEOPLE TO SAY IT WAS A NATURAL SPILLOVER AND NOT A LAB LEAK I DON'T FIND THAT PERSUASIVE AT ALL PARTLY BECAUSE I DON'T SEE HOW TONY FAUCI OR FRANCIS COLLINS ARE GOING TO PRESSURE AND INTERNATIONALLY RENOWNED SCIENTIST WORKING IN SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA, MARION COOPER AND THE NETHERLANDS, THERE IS NO LEVERAGE, THERE THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT FUNCTIONING OFF OF GRANTS LIKE OTHERS .
THEM ARE, ABSOLUTELY.
AND THAT IS WHAT HAS GIVEN MOMENTUM TO THAT ACCUSATION, THAT ARGUMENT .
>> AFTER YOUR PIECE CAME OUT, I THOUGHT IT WAS A PRETTY GOOD PIECE AND THE COMMENTS WERE JUST DEVASTATING .
WHY HAVE WE BECOME SO POLARIZED ON THIS AND SO MANY OTHER ISSUES?
>> TO SOME EXTENT, I THINK IT IS POLITICS.
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CHINA.
BUT IT IS NOT JUST THAT AND I SAY THIS IN THE PIECE .
DAVID ROMAN SAID TO ME, WHEN YOU SOW THE SEEDS OF DISTRESSED AND A COPULATION , YOU WILL FIND THOSE SEEDS WILL GROW, THIS TRUST WILL GROW AND YOU WILL HAVE A PROBLEM WITH CYNICISM AMONG YOUR POPULATION, A MONGER CITIZEN.
AND WE HAVE THAT NOW.
NOT JUST IN THE U.S.
BUT IN A LOT OF COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD.
OTHER COUNTRIES WHERE PEOPLE FAVOR THE LAB LEAK IDEA, TOO.
WE HAVE A CYNICISM ABOUT GOVERNMENT , ABOUT GOVERNMENT SECRECY .
SOME PEOPLE HAVE A CYNICISM ABOUT EXPERTS IN GENERAL ANYONE THAT WE ARE OBLIGED TO CALL DOCTOR OR PROFESSOR AND MAYBE WEARS A WHITE JACKET ON TELEVISION .
THAT GUY IS NOT GOING TO TELL ME WHAT I SHOULD THINK ABOUT THIS.
SO, THERE IS THAT CLIMATE AND THERE IS THAT EAGERNESS TO CREATE A MELODRAMATIC SCENARIO THAT INVOLVES GOOD GUYS VERSUS BAD GUYS AND SECRET POWERS MOVING IN THE BACKGROUND.
THAT GOES BACK TO OUR FEELINGS ABOUT THE ASSASSINATION OF JOHN KENNEDY AND 63.
WE ARE STILL ARGUING ABOUT THAT.
SOME PEOPLE, MANY PEOPLE STILL WANT TO BELIEVE THAT WAS A CONSPIRACY.
THERE WAS A DESIRE FOR THE DRAMATIC EXPLANATION THAT INVOLVES GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS AND CONSPIRACIES AND HIDDEN FORCES AND DARK STATES AND DEEP STATES .
ALL MADE WORSE BY SOCIAL MEDIA.
>> AND FINALLY, WHY DOES IT MATTER?
>> OH, THAT IS AN IMPORTANT QUESTION .
SOME PEOPLE SAY IT DOESN'T MATTER.
PEOPLE ARE DYING.
WE NEED TO DEAL WITH THIS PANDEMIC.
WHAT DOES IT MATTER WHERE IT CAME FROM?
IT DOES MATTER , WALTER.
ABSOLUTELY.
RESEARCH PRIORITIES AROUND THE WORLD, PANDEMIC REDNESS , PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS AND THE PUBLIC'S FEELINGS ABOUT SCIENCE IN GENERAL, TRUST FOR OR LACK OF TRUST FOR SO IT'S ALL DEPEND ON US ANSWERING THIS QUESTION, THE ORIGINS OF THIS DEVASTATING VIRUS, WHERE DID IT COME FROM?
AND HOW CAN WE AVOID LETTING IT HAPPEN AGAIN WHAT HAPPENED TO US WITH THIS ONE.
WE NEED TO KNOW.
>> DAVID, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.
>> WALTER, THANK YOU.
IT IS A PLEASURE TO TALK TO YOU.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST.